Previewing the Pitching Staff Battle for the Central

[Matthew Lenz]

Last week, we previewed the position players from the White Sox and Twins, who are realistically the only two teams competing for the division this year. The Twins “won” the position player battle 7-3, but how do they match up on the mound? Read on to find out.The White Sox made a bigger offseason splash by signing the best reliever on the market while the Twins brought in former White Sox closer Alex Colomé and Angels closer Hansel Robles. Especially for the White Sox the signing of Liam Hendriks was a curious move as their bullpen was already one of their strengths and they really like the depth elsewhere, while Colomé and Robles will provide the Twins with some depth and flexibility at the back end of their bullpen. The Twins signed J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker who will improve the rotation from 2020 while the White Sox have some top prospects waiting for their shot. Let’s take a more in depth look at each team’s pitching staff.

 

No. 1 Starter: Kenta Maeda versus Lucas Giolito

Maeda really flourished in his first full year as a starter finishing second in AL Cy Young voting and now being named the 2021 Opening Day Starter. The projection models (Steamer, ZiPS and PECOTA) disagree on whether this performance is repeatable and although a little regression is likely, his Savant profile would suggest that his 2020 season might not be an outlier. I think the difference between a division title and a wild card team could be determined by how closely Maeda is to his 2020 self.

 

Giolito, who will turn just 27 midseason, is quietly coming off of back-to-back seasons where he finished in the top-seven of Cy Young voting. After posting the worst ERA by a qualified pitcher in Major League history in 2018, he has now established himself as an “ace” for the White Sox. He utilizes a fastball/changeup combo while mixing in a slider to post elite strikeout numbers and solid contact rates. His projection models vary from a 3.00 ERA to a 4.05 where they vary in trusting him to keep the ball in the park, but irregardless I think we’ll see another “ace” season from the White Sox righty.

 

Verdict: I give the edge to Giolito, who has improved in each of the last two seasons, but not by much.

 

No. 2 Starter: Jose Berrios versus Lance Lynn

Can Berríos be an “ace”? The question that has plagued Twins fans for the better part of four seasons now, and was already covered on Twins Daily after two strong Spring Training starts. In my opinion, this spring is a perfect snapshot of why I think he will never be an “ace” or even a number one on a World Series contender.

• 1st two starts: 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 7 K
• Last two starts: 8.2 IP, 4 ER, 10 H, 4BB, 7 K

His inconsistency is what brings him down. To be fair, his third start in particular was dreadful but even against the Braves on Monday he allowed five baserunners in four plus innings of work and needed 82 pitches to get 14 outs. From start to start, he has the ceiling of an “ace” and the floor of a back end starter which is why I’ve long believed that he ultimately is a middle of the rotation starter. His projection models have his ERA in the high-3’s/low-4’s which is exactly where he’s been since 2017.

 

I think we all thought that Lynn was cooked after throwing 102 1/3 innings for the Twins in 2018 posting a 5.10 ERA and walking 5.45 batters per nine. Since then he’s posted a 3.66 ERA (3.23 FIP) and only walked 2.5 batters per nine and finished fifth and sixth in 2019 and 2020 Cy Young voting, respectively. Aside from needing Tommy John surgery and missing the 2016 season, Lynn has been one of the more durable pitchers but like Berríos, struggles with consistency. In fact, Lynn and Berríos are projected to have nearly the same season in 2020.

 

Verdict: At this point, Lynn is what he is, whereas Berríos is only 26 and still has some upside so I give him the slight edge to outperform Lynn in 2021.

 

No. 3 Starter: Michael Pineda versus Dallas Keuchel

Despite his struggles this Spring, I generally trust Pineda more than Berrios and would label him as the number two starter but I know the Twins (and most fans) don’t necessarily feel that way. After missing 2018, getting suspended at the end of 2019 and missing the start of 2020, Pineda finally started 2021 with a “normal” offseason and spring training. Ultimately, we will see some regression from 2020 as Pineda did not allow a home run over the 26 2/3 innings pitched, and none of the projection models view him favorably in 2021 with his best ERA at 4.42 which would be the second worst of his career. Pineda has always been susceptible to the long ball, although some of that is inflated by Yankee Stadium, but based on his Savant profile I wouldn't be surprised if he outperforms his projections in 2021.

 

Remember when Keuchel won a Cy Young Award? Wild. He actually had a very good 2020 season earning an MVP vote along with fifth in Cy Young voting. Very similarly to Pineda, he kept the ball in the park at an unsustainable rate which is going to lead to some regression but still posted a 3.08 FIP which was the second best of his career behind his 2017 Cy Young season. Again like Pineda, the projection models do not view him in an overly positive light with an ERA and FIP above 4.00 and his Savant profile would tend to agree that

 

Verdict: I’ll easily take Pineda over Keuchel.

 

No. 4 Starter: J.A. Happ versus Dylan Cease

Happ wasn’t a splash or overly popular signing for fans, but as the Twins number four option he provides an upperhand versus most other teams. He’s coming off of a tough couple years with the Yankees as a flyball pitcher in Yankee stadium, but has otherwise been pretty solid and very durable for almost a decade. He’s not a power pitcher but he’s good at generating weak contact, and will be plenty valuable as a back end starter. That’s what you’re going to have to keep in mind in 2021, his numbers won’t pop but they’ll play as our number four starter.

 

Cease is a former top prospect who is still only 25 years old with just 131 1/3 Major League innings under his belt. He may be their number four now, but his Minor League numbers and scouting report would suggest he could be a #1 or #2 starter. He’s had rough start in his short career really struggling with walks and home runs and the projection models don’t see that improving in 2021. It’s always hard to project when or even if a prospect will produce in the bigs, but if Cease can clean things up he’ll be very good.

 

Verdict: Cease has the higher ceiling but Happ has the higher floor which I’ll take in 2021. Happ over Cease.

 

No. 5 Starter: Matt Shoemaker versus Carlos Rodón

See how I started Happ’s paragraph and pretend like I was talking about Shoemaker. Unlike Happ, his biggest question mark is going to be his durability as he’s only thrown 166 innings over the last four seasons combined. That said, if he can stay healthy, those last 166 innings have a solid 8.1 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, and a 4.14 FIP which would be phenomenal for a number five. I don’t know how much stock to really put into his projections with so little data over the last five seasons, but they have him with an ERA and FIP in the high 4’s. If he does get hurt, the Twins have the flexibility of plugging in Lewis Thorpe or Randy Dobnak who are having nice spring seasons.

 

I really don’t know why the White Sox aren’t giving Michael Kopech and Garrett Crochet a shot here. Sure, they’re young but at this point we kind of know that Rodón tops out as a #3 starter at best, whereas the two mentioned before him are projected to be frontline starters. I’d get it more if he was already under contract but they re-signed him in January, he’s coming off of five consecutive seasons with some sort of army injury, and have already relegated the other two to the bullpen. All of that said, like Shoemaker, when he’s healthy he’s put up numbers that would be very solid for a fifth option. To make for an easier comparison to Shoemaker, over the last four years Rodón has thrown 232 1/3 innings posting a 8.4 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, and a 4.67 FIP.

 

Verdict: Shoemaker over Rodón, and more generally like the Twins options at number five over the White Sox.

 

Bullpen: Minnesota Twins versus Chicago White Sox

The front of a team’s bullpen can be very fluid as players get hurt, struggle with performance, and spot starters are needed. With that said, the back end of the rotation is typically more solid and both the Twins and White Sox have some strong players. Where the Twins lack the top end talent of someone like Hendriks, they make up for it with the experience and production of Taylor Rogers, Colomé, Robles, and Tyler Duffey who all have experienced success in high leverage situations. Moreover, having that many options allows you to not assign a formal role and put your pitchers in the best spots where they can be successful. For example, Rogers in 2020 didn’t impress anyone but he also faced more righties than you’d like him to based on his career splits. I also like having Thielbar (if he’s healthy) and the upside of Alcala to help bridge the gap between starters and the four aforementioned names on this list.

 

On top of Hendriks, Crochet, and Kopech who we already know are elite arms out of the bullpen, the White Sox will hope that Aaron Bummer can stay healthy and Evan Marshall continues his so far successful career as a reliever. If everything comes together the White Sox bullpen will be very, very dangerous and teams will have to get and hold a lead in the first half of the ball game to win. The concern for them will be if they have an injury and need to start relying on their depth to fill in the holes. As with their position players, they don’t have a ton of solid depth in the bullpen.

 

Verdict: Although the Twins will be very good, the White Sox should better and possibly have the best bullpen in baseball.

 

Conclusion: Minnesota Twins Pitching Staff versus Chicago White Sox Pitching Staff

Download attachment: Screen Shot 2021-03-25 at 1.47.55 PM.png

In general, the White Sox pitching staff have more top end talent and more upside than the Twins pitching staff but I would argue that the Twins have a safer floor. If everything goes right for the White Sox then they will easily take this matchup between pitching staffs, but over a 162 game stretch I would put my money on who can sustain through adversity and I believe the Twins are in the better spot to do that specifically with their starting rotation.

 

 

Roster: Minnesota Twins versus Chicago White Sox

Download attachment: Screen Shot 2021-03-25 at 1.48.04 PM.png

Verdict: From a (very scientific) purely ✔ mark perspective, the Twins have the clear advantage when we break it down position by position. That said, the gap between many of the positions isn’t that wide on either side. As I’ve stated in both articles, I generally favor the Twins because they have more depth and stability than the White Sox. That said, the race for the division will be close and if some of the White Sox young players can blossom in 2021 then I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take the division either. The division will likely come down to who wins the head-to-head battle between the two teams over the 19-game season series. Either way, I would expect both teams to make the playoffs, even under the pre-COVID format, and maybe they’ll face off in the ALCS?!?

 

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[MN_ExPat]

Nice Write up Matthew... but my inner grammar nazi kept making my eyeball twitch.

 

"but irregardless I think we’ll see another “ace” season from the White Sox righty."

 

It's regardless, irregardless isn't a proper word...  

[4twinsJA]

Nice article Matt, I really like the direction the Twins pitching is headed. Who they will have on the roster and maybe more excited about prospects coming up. Good to see a constructive change by Twins FO to address annual pitching woes.

[Dman]

Yeah I don't know, pitching is variable and the season is long.  My generalized feeling is that the long season benefits the younger arms as they are less likely to suffer short term setbacks or long term injury. I know injuries can happen at any age and anytime but in general younger means fewer of those issues.

 

Honestly I think the matchups with the Twins are too close to call and injuries might decide the winner.  The Sox already lost Jiminez so that hurts them some. The one thing you mentioned that might be a deciding factor is I think the Twins have greater depth than the Sox and that might turn out to be very important this year.

 

To me on paper the Sox are younger and more talented but not by much. It should be a battle to the end.  Also the Indians or Royals could surprise this year.  I think it will be more of a 4 team race than most people.  If the Indians find some hitting and the Royals pitching that will change things.

[bozmac]

In your story you mention, "At this point, Lynn is what he is, whereas Berríos is only 26 and still has some upside so I give him the slight edge to outperform Lynn in 2021."  However, in your chart you gave it to the White Sox.  I would also take Berrios of Lynn giving the Twins a 4-2 lead in pitching.  

[Trov]

I think the Twins have much more pitching depth than Sox do.  I am not sold as Shoemaker being the 5th starter all year, or even breaking as 5th, but we have much better options when injuries happen as well.  Sox top 3 can match up very well with us and many teams, but their last 2 are not proven and to my knowledge they do not have much depth.  My guess they will be seeking to buy a starter mid-season. 

[MNT1996]

I 100% agree with trusting Pineda over Berrios

[adjacent]

Another variable with the White Sox  is the Larussa experiment. How is this going to end up? With the Twins we already know how he works with the players he has (Well, in general)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think the Twins have much more pitching depth than Sox do.  I am not sold as Shoemaker being the 5th starter all year, or even breaking as 5th, but we have much better options when injuries happen as well.  Sox top 3 can match up very well with us and many teams, but their last 2 are not proven and to my knowledge they do not have much depth.  My guess they will be seeking to buy a starter mid-season. 

The White Sox have said they still consider Kopech and Crochet as starting prospects, although both will open the season in the bullpen (in part to help manage their workloads). They're probably the White Sox strongest SP depth right now.

[Doctor Gast]

I'd give CWS the bottom 3 also and the top 3 are close. I listened to Nash Walker yesterday with him talking to his CWS counter parts. When they discussed the Happ acquisition, they became giddy because they were 14-0 against LHP. The whole division is RH dominated hitting. Pitching depth is where we have an edge. And if you put Dobnak in the rotation equation, I'd give him the edge. I'd say all the match up are pretty close and our depth could put us on top over the entire season.

[Drew]

 

Nice Write up Matthew... but my inner grammar nazi kept making my eyeball twitch.

 

"but irregardless I think we’ll see another “ace” season from the White Sox righty."

 

It's regardless, irregardless isn't a proper word...

I hate it too but.....

 

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/irregardless

[IndianaTwin]

WIth the reality of starting pitching, I think you also have to compare at least Nos. 6, 7, and 8 and perhaps 9 and 10 as well. Each team will get a bunch of starts outside the five names listed above. From what I've read, I'll take the Twins at those positions. 

 

[jkcarew]

 

The White Sox have said they still consider Kopech and Crochet as starting prospects, although both will open the season in the bullpen (in part to help manage their workloads). They're probably the White Sox strongest SP depth right now.

It is weird, though, that they didn’t give either even one start this spring (so far). I suppose they would have, at least for Kopech one would think, in a ‘normal’ ST with the higher number of games (split-squads, etc)

[jkcarew]

If the Twins overall starting isn’t a good notch better than the White Sox, I think it’s going to be hard to win the Central for the Twins. Last year the Sox lineup was better than the Twins, but their starting pitching wasn’t close. Jimenez hurts the Sox, for sure, but it’s not like the Twins lineup has added offense.

 

I think the thing I feel best about relative to Chicago as a Twins fan is Larussa. Could work out, I suppose. I’m sure he hasn’t forgotten how to manage a game. Still, it seems that there’s the real potential that that blows up and maybe sooner than later?

[Fatbat]

I'm excited about the twins' money ball pitching options this year. Seems like we have an above average floor with lots of depth!! It's a thick foundation. The ceiling over 162 games depends on getting a couple outliers to over perform (Law, Robles, Waddell etc.) and a young arm or two to develop into the next solid inning eaters (Dobnak, Thorpe, Alcala, Duran). If these all perform well, The Twins will win ALOT of games.

[mikelink45]

I disagreed with the home-centric grading of the position players, but the loss of Jiminez makes them even.  I give the Twins the fielding prize so I slightly grade the Twins over the Sox.  

 

In SP I give Berrios and Maeda the overwhelming lead, but I am not a Pineda fan.  I see his seven year performance, less performance enhancing additives as average SP.  Happ has looked terrible this spring, Shoemaker is ????  Give me Randy and the SP is better for the Twins than the Sox.

 

The BP has not looked good this spring - neither Robles or Colome have shined and Rogers looks like the same guy that disappointed us last season so we need to win the SP side of this equation.  

 

At this point we are even and it means a really tense and good season, especially if Kepler is not leading off and the team remembers how to hit. 

 

And finally, am I the only one who questions why Cave is so secure as the fourth OF?

[Otto von Ballpark]

It is weird, though, that they didn’t give either even one start this spring (so far). I suppose they would have, at least for Kopech one would think, in a ‘normal’ ST with the higher number of games (split-squads, etc)

One start in spring training wouldn’t mean much. You’d need multiple starts to stretch out beyond a reliever’s workload anyway. And both guys are coming off health issues.

 

I’d actually be surprised if they transitioned either one to starting during the 2021 season — seems more like a “next offseason” thing — but the White Sox have been a little surprising lately.

[DocBauer]

Understand the only team I'm an "expert" on is the Twins. But I'd like to think I watch enough, read enough, and hear enough to be able to discuss the Dirty Sox with intelligence and perspective. And it's also PAINFUL to give any credit to said Dirty Sox for anything because next to the Yankess...well...they're the Dirty Sox! Lol. But I like their 1st 3 and I like their pen. They have some young, vibrant arms with potential as well.

 

BUT, I think we are giving them a bit of a "fear factor" in regard to young arms. You just can't be concerned about their young arms and not remember to look at the young arm talent the Twins have. It works both ways.

 

Where I disagree with the OP is Berrios vs Pineda. I mean I really, really like the healthy and re-invented Pineda and everything he has done on the mound after a couple mediocre early starts coming off his surgery. And I am very optimistic and excited about a full 2021 from him. But in no way, shape or form would I EVER rate him above Berrios!

 

Matt, are you a victim of "Of course, Minnesota" in regard to Berrios because he hasn't yet turned in to what has been hoped for? You speak about him being 26yo and having potential still and seem to ignore a pair of All Star selections...for what those are worth...and career numbers and all he has flashed thus far, and the vast potential he still has, and like Pineda better? Dude, sorry we can't have a drink and debate in person, but I'm going to say you are wrong and will be proven wrong.

 

I like Happ for 2021, though I'm SLIGHTLY concerned about his ramp up to begin the season. Shoemaker is just such a smart signing! We might get 25 GS, and we may get 14. But every season someone with real talent and production gets healthy again and turns out to be a steal.

 

Dobber offers us a SP that MIGHT be better than either Happ or Shoemaker. And his new slider looks LEGIT! But veteran arms and this depth shouldn't be ignored. Nor should we ignore a couple of quality veteran SP getting a little time and leeway.

 

If the "new" Thorpe is the old Thorpe...and I believe he is...he will be pushing for the next man up HARD. I think Dobnak, barring wonderful health, will be part of the rotation before the season is done, and cementing himself for 2022. That's ONE. Does Thorpe establish himself as a future SP or a bullpen fixture? Or a BP option who slides back in to the rotation? TBD. But I would not be shocked if a year from now we are talking about both being part of the rotation.

 

It would seem the DS have the better pen on the surface due to pure velocity, etc. But I do like our rotation and rotation depth more.

 

I 100% believe Hendricks was signed as the classic closer over Colome due to La Russa. Considering what Colome did for Chicago, is this really an improvement? Does the traditional BP usage work better than the new way that Baldelli works the pen? To me, that's one of the most interesting differences in these two teams. On the surface, it would appear the DS have the velocity advantage. But we all know velocity doesn't guarantee anything. It still comes to getting OUTS.

 

I find both staffs virtually equal, but the Twins having better depth and some guys that frankly, were it 4yrs ago, would already be locked in vs being off the 40 man, give the Twins better depth overall.

[big dog]

Eno Sarris has his fantasy rankings for starters published at The Athletic. Fun read.

 

 

#10 Giolito

#14 Maeda

 

#19 Berrios

#23 Lynn

 

He has Keuchel 12 spots ahead of Pineda

 

Happ 14 ahead of Cease

 

Shoemaker 64 ahead of Rodon

 

Kopech and Dobnak rank about even

 

Thorpe is listed about even with Rodon.

 

So only one major difference, and that's at the fifth starter spot. Should be an interesting season!