Projecting the Twins Opening Day Roster: Version 3.0

[nicksaviking]

 

I completely get that and normally I absolutely agree but I still think Thorpe is a starter. He’s better as a starter than Perkins or Hendriks ever were. Hendriks is obviously not a lefty but those were two “should have always been relievers” that I could think of off the top of my head. 
 

My worry is they give up on starting (I can’t say too soon because he’s been starting awhile now) and he becomes some other teams 3rd or 4th starter. I’d much rather have a 3rd starter than a reliever. Maybe I am wrong. I probably am. And I know that scenario is probably so rare and if they did switch him right now to a RP I believe he would succeed and would never get to another team anyway but I just don’t think they can give up on it yet. 

 

There is still plenty of time to make him a permanent RP even after this one last shot, if they give it to him. They may not have options left on him after this year if he stays down long enough but I think he’d have the skills to pick up relief very fast so I don’t worry about losing him in the way you mentioned as long as they give him a chance which they didn’t with Hendriks. 

 

These guys almost always take a full year of not being a starter to become a good reliever, sometimes two. They rarely seem to click in the years they are yo-yoed back and forth between AAA and the majors and the rotation and bullpen. Which makes sense; the approach is totally different.

 

Perkins and Hendricks are good examples we've seen first hand as Twins fans. Trevor May and LaTroy Hawkins as well Duffey was one of those that took two years. Taylor Rogers had his wings clipped in Rochester; also a great move. But then you have Brad Hand, Wade Davis, Andrew Miller and Zach Britton. If the team waits until next year to commit, then there is no margin for error; he'll have to be DFA'd if he struggles with the transition. There's no room for him in the rotation now anyway.

[Twins33]

 

These guys almost always take a full year of not being a starter to become a good reliever, sometimes two. They rarely seem to click in the years they are yo-yoed back and forth between AAA and the majors and the rotation and bullpen. Which makes sense; the approach is totally different.

 

Perkins and Hendricks are good examples we've seen first hand as Twins fans. Trevor May and LaTroy Hawkins as well Duffey was one of those that took two years. Taylor Rogers had his wings clipped in Rochester; also a great move. But then you have Brad Hand, Wade Davis, Andrew Miller and Zach Britton. If the team waits until next year to commit, then there is no margin for error; he'll have to be DFA'd if he struggles with the transition. There's no room for him in the rotation now anyway.

What I keep noticing is that you and I both keep mentioning the conversion of Twins players who were bad as starters. Thorpe hasn't failed as a starter yet, but those guys did over and over and over.

 

Thorpe AA/AAA numbers in total: 28.9 K%, 6.9 BB%. He only played one game in AA in 2017 which screwed up his total FIP to 4.19. It's 3.55 without that one game.

 

May: 23.5 K%, 10.6 BB%, 3.98 FIP. We all remember hoping he'd figure out that walk issue and he never did.

 

Glen Perkins: 17.88 K%, 10.2 BB%, 5.65 FIP. Perk also had only one game in AAA in 2006 and it was bad so I gave him the same benefit as Thorpe. With these numbers it's a miracle he ended up turning his career around, but he is absolutely why I don't give up on failed starters until they are terrible in the BP too.

 

Hendriks: 18 K%, 4.2 BB%, 3.02 FIP. Classic case of put him in the BP hoping for more K's because this guy won't make it as a starter striking out 18% or so if he does/did that in the majors. Otherwise he looked good.

 

Duffey: 21.4 K%, 6.68 BB%, 3.60 FIP. Closest guy to Thorpe so far, but doesn't K guys as much.

 

Rogers: 17.9 K%, 6 BB%, 3.12 FIP. Again, another guy that can't K people as a SP.

 

These are just very basic stats obviously and they're not the be all end all but you can see how Thorpe is miles above every single one of them in results as a starter.  Either they can't K people or can't stop walking people (Perk was both!).

 

For fun:

Berrios: 23.4 K%, 8%, 3.23 FIP (3.01 when also subtracting a one gamer). Berrios improved as time went on (2015-2017 seasons)

 

Thorpe: 28.9 K%, 6.9 BB%, 4.19 FIP (3.55). Consistent year after year.

 

Again, not the be all end all. There's "stuff" involved and many, many more stats. I get that you can't just say this guy will be this guaranteed because of stats. You can never guarantee anything in baseball. But I have always believed that Thorpe is just a step or so below Berrios and it looks like that "could" be true...which would hopefully put him as a 3 or 4 starter (more than likely a 4). After last year, my frustration with him was pretty high, but I still like him a lot.

 

I'd like to see a Twins comp of a guy who is a good starter in the minors but was moved to the BP. I can't think of one, but I'm sure one probably does exist.

 

As you can tell by this long post, I'm still not ready to give up on Thorpe as a starter. I do agree that there is not a spot for him or Dobnak in the rotation right now, though it's very debatable. That thought is also funny to me because I originally didn't want to hand the rotation spots to Dobnak or Thorpe this offseason. I wanted more depth from the inevitable injuries and IP increases, but if Dobnak can K more guys like he is doing and Thorpe is back to his usual self, I am now wanting it to happen. I expect at least two injures to our starters...which gives Thorpe and Dobnak spots (obviously I'm not wishing for injuries) so it's still possible.

 

I'm sure the Twins agree with you though and think BP for Thorpe. And I don't necessarily disagree with it as a normal strategy as I said before...I just haven't seen a guy put up numbers like he has be put into the BP. Usually the pitchers are much worse than him, sometimes insanely worse than him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

What I keep noticing is that you and I both keep mentioning the conversion of Twins players who were bad as starters. Thorpe hasn't failed as a starter yet, but those guys did over and over and over.

 

Thorpe AA/AAA numbers in total: 28.9 K%, 6.9 BB%. He only played one game in AA in 2017 which screwed up his total FIP to 4.19. It's 3.55 without that one game.

 

May: 23.5 K%, 10.6 BB%, 3.98 FIP. We all remember hoping he'd figure out that walk issue and he never did.

I think you make a fair point about Thorpe, but those K differences aren't *quite* as dramatic as they look due to changing contexts. The 2019 IL K% was 22.8%. Even just a few years prior, in 2014 for Trevor May, it was only 19.4%. Thorpe still outpaces his league by a wider margin, but the league difference wipes out over half his K% advantage over May.

[Twins33]

 

I think you make a fair point about Thorpe, but those K differences aren't *quite* as dramatic as they look due to changing contexts. The 2019 IL K% was 22.8%. Even just a few years prior, in 2014 for Trevor May, it was only 19.4%. Thorpe still outpaces his league by a wider margin, but the league difference wipes out over half his K% advantage over May.

Those are good facts to know, because my post was already getting way too long and I didn’t bother to look so thank you.

 

With May, it was always the walks for me. I liked him and still do but he was never making it as a SP walking that many guys. He got better at that when he became a reliever and he’s actually the one reliever  I absolutely wanted back. Colome takes his place but I’m greedy and would rather have both of them. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Those are good facts to know, because my post was already getting way too long and I didn’t bother to look so thank you.

 

With May, it was always the walks for me. I liked him and still do but he was never making it as a SP walking that many guys. He got better at that when he became a reliever and he’s actually the one reliever I absolutely wanted back. Colome takes his place but I’m greedy and would rather have both of them.

May actually didn’t walk that many guys as a starter in MLB, or even ultimately fail as a starter. He walked 7 in the disaster that was his very first game, but the remaining 9 games as a rookie he only had a 7.6 BB% (he gave up a ton of runs, though). Second season, 16 starts, 1.9 fWAR, 20.3 K%, 5.0 BB%. (League was 17.0 K% and 6.7 BB%) ERA was 4.43 but the league SP ERA was 4.14. I don’t know if that would have held up over time, but he never really got a chance to start again after that.

[Twins33]

 

May actually didn’t walk that many guys as a starter in MLB, or even ultimately fail as a starter. He walked 7 in the disaster that was his very first game, but the remaining 9 games as a rookie he only had a 7.6 BB% (he gave up a ton of runs, though). Second season, 16 starts, 1.9 fWAR, 20.3 K%, 5.0 BB%. (League was 17.0 K% and 6.7 BB%) ERA was 4.43 but the league SP ERA was 4.14. I don’t know if that would have held up over time, but he never really got a chance to start again after that.

That’s true. My memory of it is just knowing it was a huge issue in the minors and I thought it carried over. Would have been interesting what would have happened if he remained a starter. Probably would have been a 5 if he was lucky enough but no better than that. 

[Major League Ready]

Maeda / Berrios / Dobnak / Pineda / Happ

 

Rogers / Duffy / Colume / Alcala / Robles / Thielbar / Law / Shoemaker

 

Law takes Smeltzer’s spot on the 40 man.