Notebook: Pineda Struggles, Power Bats Break Out

[Jamie Cameron]

The Minnesota Twins continued their 2021 Spring Training slate with 7-6 loss at the Rays. Notes on that game and more in today’s Twins Daily Notebook.Rays 7, Twins 6

Box Score

 

Twins Takeaways

Standout pitcher: Brandon Waddell (1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 K)

Standout hitter: Andrelton Simmons (2 for 3, HR, SB)

 

The Twins bats broke out Wednesday, with plenty of power on display against a strong Rays pitching staff. The Twins pitching, however, was a different story in a 7-6 loss to Tampa Bay.

 

Michael Pineda’s last outing was a ‘B team’ game where he stretched out to 70 pitches. Wednesday's game gave Twins fans an opportunity to see him for the first time since March 12. It was not pretty. Pineda showed better control (than his March 12 outing) but poor command, getting lit up for nine hits and five earned runs over five innings of work. Pineda was undone by some bad luck, with two first inning hits beating infield positioning and some soft contact in the third inning leading to runs. Overall, however, he left too much over the center of the plate against the reigning AL champs.

 

The latest installment of Tyler Duffey’s roller coaster spring was another uneven performance. The good? Duffey’s fastball was up to 94 mph, ameliorating any early spring velocity concerns. The bad? Duffey continues to get beat up on. Wednesday, he failed to get out of his inning, giving up a walk and two runs which ballooned his spring ERA to 13.50.

 

The Twins best pitching performer was Brandon Waddell, who has installed himself with Derek Law as co-outstanding fungible slider relief guy this spring. Waddell pitched a scoreless inning while striking out two.

 

 

The Twins offense clicked Wednesday, paced by home runs from Andrelton Simmons, a mammoth blast from Ryan Jeffers, and this opposite field shot from Trevor Larnach.

 

 

Byron Buxton added a triple. Willians Astudillo continued his push for a roster spot with another double. Max Kepler continued his spring slump with another hitless day.

 

 

Tomorrow: Twins at Red Sox (Dobnak vs M. Perez)

 

Other News

With opening day in Milwaukee only seven days away, the Twins finally got some closure in the drawn out case of Lewis Thorpe and his fourth option.

 

 

Thorpe then, will likely begin the season at the alternative site at St. Paul. It’s a tough blow for the Australian, who has worked hard and had an outstanding spring. One would assume Thorpe’s fourth option gives a boost to Randy Dobnak’s prospects of breaking camp with the team.

 

In a league-wide memo, MLB is pledging to crack down on foreign substances used by pitchers in 2021.

 

 

This seems like it would be challenging to monitor. In further details, it emerged that MLB intends to use spin rates from Baseball Savant as part of its analysis. This news was met with a variety of reactions around the league, not least former Twin, Trevor Plouffe.

 

 

What do you think of the league’s attempts to limit foreign substance use on baseballs? Where do you think Lewis Thorpe will begin the year? Who do you think is going to emerge victorious in the battle for the Sire of Fort Myers?

 

More from Twins Daily

Twins 2021 Position Analysis: Relief Pitcher

Ranking the Twins Top-5 Slider Prospects

José Berríos is On Top of Things

 

Click here to view the article

[cHawk]

I notice that the Twins offense is very reliant on HRs - that’s a problem

[blindeke]

I feel like Plouffe is an excellent ex-Twin.

[PDX Twin]

Enforce the rules. Punish the cheaters. Period.

[Dman]

Please. please Twins get Max to hit some balls to the opposite field.  Pull side is totally killing him.  Please. please do it soon.  Today it was two two ground outs to the second baseman and one easy pop fly to right field.  It has been the same scenario all spring long.  How many times do you need to see it to know it is not working?  He needs a different approach .  I am begging you have him hit oppo or else replace him he is a one trick pony at this point and its not working anymore.  His BA and OBP and OPS prove it is not working.  Please change it ASAP before you destroy him.

[Dr. Evil]

Spring training games are so irelivent. The best training happens in practice. I feel like these so called games are just teams going through the motions because they are required to.

[AceWrigley]

unfortunately, a foreign substance on the ball for Max Kepler would be the bat.

[Danchat]

I was high on Waddell being picked up, and now he’s looking like a good asset to keep at AAA. I feel better about the bullpen depth with some strong performances from guys like him and Law. Plus, Thorpe’s stuff looks like it has life again. Sure, it’s just spring training, but when you strike out this many guys, I’m taking notice.

[DocBauer]

I take nothing negative from Pineda's performance, nor should you. He's just trying stuff, working on stuff, and getting his innings in. Period.

 

Very happy that we finally have a final and positive outcome in regard to Thorpe's extra option year. This is not just good news for the Twins, but as much so for Thorpe. After his disappointing 2020, and there is no further reason to reflect or react, he came to camp in great shape mentally, emotionally and physically. He has shown to the Twins and himself he is ready. There are only so many roster spots available to begin the season. NOW, which version of him begins 2021? Is it the 2020 version who suffered and struggled with "whatever"? Or is he the talented young prospect who lost 2yrs due to injury and illness and fought hard to re-establish himself as a quality/top prospect and who has worked so hard now to get ready for 2021? I'm betting on the latter and fully believe Thorpe and Dobnak will play important roles in 2021 in the pen and rotation while also making themselves pertinent parts of the 2022 staff.

 

As far as Max goes, please correct me if wrong, but hasn't he had a couple bad springs before cranking it up when the season started?

 

Waddell isn't going to break camp unless there is an injury. And I know his appearances were mostly late innings, but DAMN, can't you still be impressed by a relatively young LHP doing tbat well? Watch out Thielbar.

[Doctor Gast]

I think as some pitchers as they are being stretched out aren't pitching as well because they haven't got their stamina yet and will take some time to maintain that. It could be a problem in the beginning and throughout the season which supports the idea of bringing up 2 long RPs (Dobnak and Thorpe)

I like Dmin's insight on Kepler, something needs to be done.

[Darius]

Well, better send Kepler down. That’s what happens when you don’t perform lights-out in a handful of Spring Training ABs.

[strumdatjaguar]

Is it time for Max Kepler to develop an abdominal strain or something?

[stringer bell]

What are the odds that Kepler hits the first pitch of the season into the seats? I don't think they are astronomical. Really, that is the mystery of Max Kepler to me. He has a nice sound swing and yet is so slump-prone. We've seen swoons from him every year for no apparent reason. Of course, we've seen the reverse where he's doing damage on almost every at-bat. 

[Dman]

 

As far as Max goes, please correct me if wrong, but hasn't he had a couple bad springs before cranking it up when the season started?

 

 

He did OK last year with a 760 OPS but the main thing that saved him were the 22 walks he took and two HR's to start the season.  If you saw how Tampa played him yesterday you can see why he will always have a low BABIP I think it was the lowest in baseball.  Everyone was shifted to the right they had the second baseman playing shallow outfield.  Centerfielder was to the far right and the right fielder was shaded to the line.  The outfielders could play deep because the second base man had part of shallow right field covered.  Max would need to hit a laser over the first baseman or shortstops head that couldn't be caught by the second baseman just to get a hit to right field.  Right field is so crowded he virtually only has three outcomes a walk a Home Run and an out.  He has been making a lot of outs lately.

 

Now imagine a player that could use the opposite field and raise his BABIP?  Honestly he might be an All-Star player.  He makes contact a good percentage of the time but he hits it literally to the same place every time. Didn't Moustakis have to reinvent himself because he couldn't get hits because of the shift?  I think Max needs to do the same thing.  The BABIP information is telling us something.  He is too predictable and the shift is beating him.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

I take nothing negative from Pineda's performance, nor should you. He's just trying stuff, working on stuff, and getting his innings in. Period.

Very happy that we finally have a final and positive outcome in regard to Thorpe's extra option year. This is not just good news for the Twins, but as much so for Thorpe. After his disappointing 2020, and there is no further reason to reflect or react, he came to camp in great shape mentally, emotionally and physically. He has shown to the Twins and himself he is ready. There are only so many roster spots available to begin the season. NOW, which version of him begins 2021? Is it the 2020 version who suffered and struggled with "whatever"? Or is he the talented young prospect who lost 2yrs due to injury and illness and fought hard to re-establish himself as a quality/top prospect and who has worked so hard now to get ready for 2021? I'm betting on the latter and fully believe Thorpe and Dobnak will play important roles in 2021 in the pen and rotation while also making themselves pertinent parts of the 2022 staff.

As far as Max goes, please correct me if wrong, but hasn't he had a couple bad springs before cranking it up when the season started?

Waddell isn't going to break camp unless there is an injury. And I know his appearances were mostly late innings, but DAMN, can't you still be impressed by a relatively young LHP doing tbat well? Watch out Thielbar.

Kepler still needs to start hitting to the opposite field more.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

As far as Max goes, please correct me if wrong, but hasn't he had a couple bad springs before cranking it up when the season started?

MLB.com actually has spring training stats dating back to 2006, selectable in drop-down menus on both the team stat pages and the individual player pages, so we can check it out!

 

https://www.mlb.com/player/max-kepler-596146

 

Kepler's career spring training line is poor overall, at .204/.268/.292 for a .560 OPS in 272 PA.

 

And actually each individual spring has been fairly poor too, with the exception of 2019. In spring 2019, he had a .957 OPS and 3 HR; he's never hit a spring HR outside of that year, and never topped a .601 OPS otherwise either. 2019 also happened to be his best regular-season performance at the plate, with 36 HR and a 123 OPS+ (and also the year when the league as a whole hit a high-water mark for HR, prompting some changes in the baseball now).

 

I still don't think the spring samples are large enough to be particularly meaningful. Maybe this spring is a minor harbinger against a superstar breakout, but still no reason Kepler shouldn't be able to hit his ZiPS projection for 2021 (113 wRC+, 2.8 WAR).

[KFEY93]

 

I notice that the Twins offense is very reliant on HRs - that’s a problem

The 2019 season was the worst thing that could have happened to this team offensively. They got it stuck in their heads that they are THE home run team now and that has to be how they score runs. Teams pitching can adjust to that approach at the plate pretty easily. And it was apparent at the end of 2019 and all through 2020. Im calling for maybe 85 wins this season and 2nd place. 

[mikelink45]

 

I take nothing negative from Pineda's performance, nor should you. He's just trying stuff, working on stuff, and getting his innings in. Period.

Very happy that we finally have a final and positive outcome in regard to Thorpe's extra option year. This is not just good news for the Twins, but as much so for Thorpe. After his disappointing 2020, and there is no further reason to reflect or react, he came to camp in great shape mentally, emotionally and physically. He has shown to the Twins and himself he is ready. There are only so many roster spots available to begin the season. NOW, which version of him begins 2021? Is it the 2020 version who suffered and struggled with "whatever"? Or is he the talented young prospect who lost 2yrs due to injury and illness and fought hard to re-establish himself as a quality/top prospect and who has worked so hard now to get ready for 2021? I'm betting on the latter and fully believe Thorpe and Dobnak will play important roles in 2021 in the pen and rotation while also making themselves pertinent parts of the 2022 staff.

As far as Max goes, please correct me if wrong, but hasn't he had a couple bad springs before cranking it up when the season started?

Waddell isn't going to break camp unless there is an injury. And I know his appearances were mostly late innings, but DAMN, can't you still be impressed by a relatively young LHP doing tbat well? Watch out Thielbar.

Here is the correction:

 

"As far as Max goes, please correct me if wrong, but hasn't he had a couple bad springs before cranking it up when the season started?"  He has not had a couple good seasons.  He had one very good season and a bunch of okay to mediocre.  We need to see more from him.

[Dman]

 

MLB.com actually has spring training stats dating back to 2006, selectable in drop-down menus on both the team stat pages and the individual player pages, so we can check it out!

 

https://www.mlb.com/player/max-kepler-596146

 

Kepler's career spring training line is poor overall, at .204/.268/.292 for a .560 OPS in 272 PA.

 

And actually each individual spring has been fairly poor too, with the exception of 2019. In spring 2019, he had a .957 OPS and 3 HR; he's never hit a spring HR outside of that year, and never topped a .601 OPS otherwise either. 2019 also happened to be his best regular-season performance at the plate, with 36 HR and a 123 OPS+ (and also the year when the league as a whole hit a high-water mark for HR, prompting some changes in the baseball now).

 

I still don't think the spring samples are large enough to be particularly meaningful. Maybe this spring is a minor harbinger against a superstar breakout, but still no reason Kepler shouldn't be able to hit his ZiPS projection for 2021 (113 wRC+, 2.8 WAR).

 

 

His regular season numbers aren't that much different though except for slugging.  He has about a 230 BA except in 2019 he gains about 100 points in OBP with his good eye at the plate. Yes he does hit more HR's in the regular season and HR's do beat the shift but that is about the only difference. The extra HR's also up his batting average slightly from the spring numbers.  He is who he is at this point.

 

The BABIP will never normalize for him with his current approach.  It will stay the same because he hits directly into the shift.  The breakout talk should go away.  If you are OK with his current level of production then I guess he will be fine but he could be a lot better if he used the other half of the field it is there for a reason.  If he used it, It would also would give him a chance to normalize his BABIP and potentially break out, but I digress.

[Trov]

In response to the questions, I believe Thorpe will be sent cross river.  I also think he will be one of first pitchers brought back should the need arise.  We all know he will make it over at some point.  Twins work through pitchers like crazy. 

 

As for substance on balls, that will be very hard to monitor.  I get the intent of more balls in play generally, as that leads to more action.  I do not think this is the path to go.  It sounds like the league thinks this is being done in the dugouts before the balls get to the umps, as I understand they cycle through balls.  This will be easy to stop by having independent person checking the balls that are out of play before it cycles back to the ump.  One issue if pine tar is found on the ball will be that bats have that all over it, and on players batting gloves and they may get some on the ball, which could lead to claim it was the pitcher, or catcher who did it.  

 

If the substance can add spin rate, then to me, only significant difference in spin rate during a particular game would be evidence that the pitcher did anything.  If it was just increased from a game to another that would not be enough for me.  I think the league should also find how much a substance can affect pitcher in getting strikes, while balancing what lack of a substance may do with control of the ball.  

 

With guys throwing high 90's across the league, at least every team has 1 player with that velo now a days, I am wondering how much the substance may help with control.  I know if I was a hitter, if the lack of a substance may lead to more wild pitches and the increased advantage is minimal, I would want the pitcher to be less wild. 

 

I have not seen the evidence that substances can really make that big of a difference, but I hope the league has and knows how much of a difference this will make.  When you look the rule changes they are doing across minor leagues, the league clearly wants more action in the game, to try and get more fans it would seem. 

[USNMCPO]

 

unfortunately, a foreign substance on the ball for Max Kepler would be the bat.

Ouch

[Doctor Gast]

His regular season numbers aren't that much different though except for slugging.  He has about a 230 BA except in 2019 he gains about 100 points in OBP with his good eye at the plate. Yes he does hit more HR's in the regular season and HR's do beat the shift but that is about the only difference. The extra HR's also up his batting average slightly from the spring numbers.  He is who he is at this point.

 

The BABIP will never normalize for him with his current approach.  It will stay the same because he hits directly into the shift.  The breakout talk should go away.  If you are OK with his current level of production then I guess he will be fine but he could be a lot better if he used the other half of the field it is there for a reason.  If he used it, It would also would give him a chance to normalize his BABIP and potentially break out, but I digress.

I agree Kepler has to make the fielders honest by going the other way more often especially when he gets an outside pitch. Just to let them know they'll get burned if they keep it up. His BA could be much better.

[cHawk]

 

The 2019 season was the worst thing that could have happened to this team offensively. They got it stuck in their heads that they are THE home run team now and that has to be how they score runs. Teams pitching can adjust to that approach at the plate pretty easily. And it was apparent at the end of 2019 and all through 2020. Im calling for maybe 85 wins this season and 2nd place. 

 

Dang, might as well not even tune in for the season then.

[Dantes929]

its a never ending story with the Twins.   Cuddyer, Kubel, Valencia, Morneau, Buxton Young, Dozier.    The problem isn't being a pull hitter.   The problem is trying to pull the ball.   All these guys and more I can't think of off the top of my head do better when they go with the pitch and hit to all fields.    Ortiez used to complain about the Twins wanting him to go the opposite way but that training might very well have been a big boost to his career.   Again.   No problem being a pull hitter but you need to step toward the pitcher, rather than toward 1st base and I saw plenty of the latter from Kepler last year.

[Thegrin]

Pitchers have always tried to cheat. If they get caught, let them be punished. The threat of forensics investigating the balls should be enough to cut down on the cheating. But look at it this situation: 7th inning. 2 men on. Dangerous hitter at bat.

Why not use a foreign substance to increase the spin rate and make the ball move more. You get the batter out and 3 days later they suspend you because they found trace evidence on the ball. Unless the suspension is dreadfully long. You laugh it off and treat it as a vacation and your club makes sure you are repaid for the expense.

 

[Doctor Gast]

its a never ending story with the Twins. Cuddyer, Kubel, Valencia, Morneau, Buxton Young, Dozier. The problem isn't being a pull hitter. The problem is trying to pull the ball. All these guys and more I can't think of off the top of my head do better when they go with the pitch and hit to all fields. Ortiez used to complain about the Twins wanting him to go the opposite way but that training might very well have been a big boost to his career. Again. No problem being a pull hitter but you need to step toward the pitcher, rather than toward 1st base and I saw plenty of the latter from Kepler last year.

Very true, it'd be much easier.

[Dantes929]

I was able to find a spray chart on Kepler from 2019 which was his best year.   Obviously a pull hitter but there was definitely color all over the field.   Can't find the 2020 one.  Anyone know how it looks?

[KFEY93]

 

Dang, might as well not even tune in for the season then.

Il tune in, hope for the best and expect the worst. Just like the Vikings. Should be the state motto for Minnesota in all honesty. Screen shot it. 85 wins. 

[cHawk]

 

Il tune in, hope for the best and expect the worst. Just like the Vikings. Should be the state motto for Minnesota in all honesty. Screen shot it. 85 wins. 

Ah, yes. True, true. I’ll tune in

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I was able to find a spray chart on Kepler from 2019 which was his best year.   Obviously a pull hitter but there was definitely color all over the field.   Can't find the 2020 one.  Anyone know how it looks?

There is a spray chart for hits in the upper-right corner of his Statcast page:

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/max-kepler-596146?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb