Has Alex Kirilloff Played Himself Off the Opening Day Roster?

[nicksaviking]

 

Rooker might be a horse and the timing is right for him. I would not look past him to get to Kiriloff a few weeks early as some suggest. We have been needing a good right handed outfield bat for a while and he is on the brink of breaking through. When Kiriloff moves up I suggest that it not be at the peril of Rooker.

 

Buxton, Kepler, Sano and Cruz have all had their injuries in recent years. Should they both produce, I'd give solid odds on both Rooker and Kirilloff getting a chance to regularly coexist in the same starting lineup sometime this season.

[stringer bell]

Spring training is different for different players. Guys like Buxton Sano, Simmons, and Kepler already have starting positions and just need to be ready when the bell rings. While Cave hasn't been very good, he's had 2+ years with the team and they aren't going to dump him because he was lousy in ST. 

 

Kirilloff had a chance to win a spot, as did Rooker and it looks like Rooker has nailed that spot down, for now. Rooker's twentysome PAs last year and nice spring will likely be forgotten if he goes 2-20 in April, as it should be. I'm pretty sure everyone that has made a serious bid for a roster spot will get their chance sometime.

[MMMordabito]

Apparently

[Dman]

 

I agree. We have a battle here amongst 6 players for basically 2 spots, 3 if we carry 13 pitchers instead of 14 - Rooker, Kirilloff, Cave, Astidillo, Garlick and Broxton. Now it's down to 5 with Kirilloff sent to the 'alternate training site" that will function as AAA for the first month of this year. Who picks who to survive? They each have different skills, different track records, and different ST performances. 

 

I'll go. My bet - Rooker as the starting LF in a quasi platoon with Arraez and .... Cave! That's if we go with 14 pitchers. If we go with 13 pitchers, Astudillo gets added. Garlick and Broxton start the year in AAA/ Alternate Training Site.  I also wouldn't be surprised by a Cave trade and Broxton making the team. Unfortunately, I think Garlick is the odd man out because he can't play CF so we need either Cave or Broxton. And no, La Tortuga can't play CF (or any other position worth a damn IMHO). Still don't get why Astudillo will make the team, but I bet he does if we go with 13 pitchers. If I'm wrong and Garlick can play CF or Rocco is willing to have Kepler play CF once or twice a week, than Garlick over Broxton in the same order. 

 

 

At this point I can't see them sending Rooker down given his pretty steady production to this point 933 OPS in 2019 AAA, 933 OPS SSS 2020 MLB, 900 OPS 2021 Spring training. Yeah I think it will be a Rooker Cave Platoon.  Garlick will be Rooker insurance and start in St Paul as they are very similar players. 

 

Broxton is problematic because it seems impossible to know if he has turned the corner with the bat or not.  His Spring says yes but he has several years of poor production that says it is unlikely he will sustain this springs numbers.  No one seems to know if he has an opt out at some point this season.  I thought I read something that said he did but MLB says he doesn't have one directly out of spring training but that doesn't mean he won't have one in a month or two if he set one up at all.  If no opt out though there seems no reason for him to break spring with the team.  He would be in AAA getting the at bats he needs on a regular basis and be Buxton insurance as he can play center field better than anyone else on the 26 man.

 

Austudillo's numbers this spring are just too good to drop him.  He is a fan favorite and a team favorite and he has position flexibility with the added bonus of being able to cover the catcher position.  He will make the team.

 

I don't know why the Twins love Cave so much but he appears immovable at this point.  We will see how things work out as the season progress's but I wouldn't be surprised if Kirilloff or Broxton replaced him at some point this year.  He needs to have a really good year to remain a Twin as there are just too many outfielder's in the pipeline to keep them all and he looks like the guy to get rid of as the other guys will all be cheaper next year and should be able to produce equal to or greater than what he has to this point.

 

That's my two cents.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And Cave won the job over Kirilloff in the platoon because?

We don't want Kirilloff to be a platoon player? I doubt it's a straight platoon either.

[KirbyDome89]

 

We don't want Kirilloff to be a platoon player? I doubt it's a straight platoon either.

You don't think there are enough ABs between LF, RF, 1B, and DH in the 30 games the Twins would play before the AAA season begins? 

 

Astudillo on the active roster is redundant, as is the bulk of relief arms. There's definitely a path to keeping Kirilloff around. He would at least have a role. I don't see the value in keeping a 2nd backup catcher or the 14th bullpen arm on the active roster to start the season. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

You don't think there are enough ABs between LF, RF, 1B, and DH in the 30 games the Twins would play before the AAA season begins? 

 

Astudillo on the active roster is redundant, as is the bulk of relief arms. There's definitely a path to keeping Kirilloff around. He would at least have a role. I don't see the value in keeping a 2nd backup catcher or the 14th bullpen arm on the active roster to start the season. 

That could have been a valid approach, especially if Kirilloff had forced the issue. But the approach they chose for now appears valid too.

 

We've already made investments in Kepler, Sano, and Cruz, and probably want to play them as much as possible while they are healthy.

 

Plus there's value in giving a full evaluation to Rooker, to help gauge his place on the roster in the future. And while their roles aren't critical, there's still value in evaluating Cave, Astudillo, and the 8th/9th reliever in limited time that will inform 26-man/40-man decisions going forward.

 

If someone gets hurt and/or more playing time opens up, we can always call up Kirilloff anytime we want -- there's nothing irreversible about this approach.

[chpettit19]

 

You don't think there are enough ABs between LF, RF, 1B, and DH in the 30 games the Twins would play before the AAA season begins? 

 

Astudillo on the active roster is redundant, as is the bulk of relief arms. There's definitely a path to keeping Kirilloff around. He would at least have a role. I don't see the value in keeping a 2nd backup catcher or the 14th bullpen arm on the active roster to start the season. 

30 games, assuming 4 PAs per game (rough estimate that balances out batting order spot, high scoring games, and low scoring games), 4 positions is 480 PAs.

 

Kepler, Cave, Rooker, Sano, Cruz, Kirilloff would be the guys rotating those spots with Kirilloff in and Astudillo out.

 

That's 6 guys for 480 PAs. 80 PAs a piece if you split it equally. Sano, Cruz, and Kepler are key parts of the Twins plans this year and there's no way they're getting the same number of PAs as everyone else in that split so those 3 getting at least 100 PAs (for the record using 2019 stats Cruz would get 130+ PAs in 30 games so 100 is low for those 3) means there's 180 PAs for Kirilloff, Cave, and Rooker to split. That's 60 PAs a piece. Why have those 3 getting 60 PAs a piece when you could have Kirilloff in St Paul getting as many cuts as he needs each and every day (yes, I know it's not game situations, but still facing live BP and in the cage every single day) and getting his timing down while not wasting him on the end of the bench in Minneapolis? 

 

And I don't think there's any rules prohibiting him from swinging by Target Field when the team is in town, or having coaches go over to CHS Field, to be in touch with everyone. No sense in starting his clock (I don't think that's why they sent him down, but it's certainly a nice bonus) to have him sit on the bench a whole bunch when he could be getting much more work done without accumulating service time.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

30 games, assuming 4 PAs per game (rough estimate that balances out batting order spot, high scoring games, and low scoring games), 4 positions is 480 PAs.

Thanks for running the numbers! I'll try another way.

 

There are 29 scheduled MLB games before the AAA season starts.

 

First 29 games of 2020, Kepler had 3 games out of the starting lineup, Cruz 2, Sano 4. That's 9 starts off the bench for those 3 spots, plus 29 more for the starting LF.

 

Of course, we not only have Rooker and Cave available for those starts, but also Arraez as a super-sub. Plus one of Garver/Jeffers might benefit from a few additional PAs too.

 

Maybe you have a distribution as follows:

 

Rooker 20

Cave 8

Arraez 8

Garver/Jeffers 2

 

You can quibble with this on the margins (and tossing a couple starts to Astudillo on the end of the bench would do just that), but trying to get a meaningful number of PAs for Kirilloff in this mix would defeat the purpose of rostering Rooker at all, and also likely negate one benefit of the Simmons signing (which allowed Arraez to become a super-sub).

[KirbyDome89]

 

That could have been a valid approach, especially if Kirilloff had forced the issue. But the approach they chose for now appears valid too.

 

We've already made investments in Kepler, Sano, and Cruz, and probably want to play them as much as possible while they are healthy.

 

Plus there's value in giving a full evaluation to Rooker, to help gauge his place on the roster in the future. And while their roles aren't critical, there's still value in evaluating Cave, Astudillo, and the 8th/9th reliever in limited time that will inform 26-man/40-man decisions going forward.

 

If someone gets hurt and/or more playing time opens up, we can always call up Kirilloff anytime we want -- there's nothing irreversible about this approach.

If he's moving between all 4 spots everybody you named will still get more than the lions share of PT. 

 

I don't see Kirilloff having much impact on Rooker, they're opposite sides of the platoon. I'm not sure what's evaluate with Cave. Personally I'm over Astudillo. The best thing he can offer is positional versatility and carrying Arraez + Kirilloff covers everything except the catcher position. He's not a good defender, and his approach at the plate isn't all that reliable either. The eighth man gets buried in bullpen at times. I don't know how often we should expect to see the 9th man. Again, I don't see the value in giving two active spots to players that we'll see sparingly, and/or only when games get out of hand. 

 

My concern is twofold. I think the scenario I laid out is more valuable to both the team on the field and Kirilloff;  I'm also worried that there will now be a reluctance to call him up early in the season to avoid the service time aspect you highlighted.  

 

[KirbyDome89]

 

30 games, assuming 4 PAs per game (rough estimate that balances out batting order spot, high scoring games, and low scoring games), 4 positions is 480 PAs.

 

Kepler, Cave, Rooker, Sano, Cruz, Kirilloff would be the guys rotating those spots with Kirilloff in and Astudillo out.

 

That's 6 guys for 480 PAs. 80 PAs a piece if you split it equally. Sano, Cruz, and Kepler are key parts of the Twins plans this year and there's no way they're getting the same number of PAs as everyone else in that split so those 3 getting at least 100 PAs (for the record using 2019 stats Cruz would get 130+ PAs in 30 games so 100 is low for those 3) means there's 180 PAs for Kirilloff, Cave, and Rooker to split. That's 60 PAs a piece. Why have those 3 getting 60 PAs a piece when you could have Kirilloff in St Paul getting as many cuts as he needs each and every day (yes, I know it's not game situations, but still facing live BP and in the cage every single day) and getting his timing down while not wasting him on the end of the bench in Minneapolis? 

 

And I don't think there's any rules prohibiting him from swinging by Target Field when the team is in town, or having coaches go over to CHS Field, to be in touch with everyone. No sense in starting his clock (I don't think that's why they sent him down, but it's certainly a nice bonus) to have him sit on the bench a whole bunch when he could be getting much more work done without accumulating service time.

It wouldn't be an even split, I agree. If Kiriloff starts one out of every 7-8 games at DH and 1B that gets him 8 starts. 3 games in LF and another 3 in RF and he's playing half of the games. Sano has had trouble with injuries for a while, and Cruz started to break down the last time the Twins played a full season as well. I don't think a few extra days off early in the season is the worst thing. Kepler giving up 3 games isn't huge. The only person it really impacts is Cave, as he's the left side of the OF platoon, and if we're worried about a platoon OFer not getting enough April ABs because the top hitting prospect in the organization is on the roster....well....

 

IMO being in a major league clubhouse and playing 50% of the time is more valuable than participating in simulated games in extended ST. If BP is the answer to keeping him in a rhythm then he can certainly get plenty of that on the days he isn't starting for the Twins. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If he's moving between all 4 spots everybody you named will still get more than the lions share of PT. 

 

I don't see Kirilloff having much impact on Rooker, they're opposite sides of the platoon. I'm not sure what's evaluate with Cave. Personally I'm over Astudillo. The best thing he can offer is positional versatility and carrying Arraez + Kirilloff covers everything except the catcher position. He's not a good defender, and his approach at the plate isn't all that reliable either. The eighth man gets buried in bullpen at times. I don't know how often we should expect to see the 9th man. Again, I don't see the value in giving two active spots to players that we'll see sparingly, and/or only when games get out of hand. 

 

My concern is twofold. I think the scenario I laid out is more valuable to both the team on the field and Kirilloff;  I'm also worried that there will now be a reluctance to call him up early in the season to avoid the service time aspect you highlighted.  

I get that you don't like Astudillo or a 9th reliever, but neither of those spots have anything to do with Kirilloff.

 

Kepler, Cruz, and Arraez are projected 3 WAR players. Sano's projection is only 2 WAR but he was a 3 WAR guy in 2019 and the team is committed to giving him a chance to do it again. These are not the guys we want to bench so we can achieve playing time equity across the whole 26-man roster.

 

I laid out the numbers in my post above, but trying to give even half-time starts to Kirilloff would have a noticeable impact on other roster goals. Kirilloff is a very good prospect but his performance and experience to date do not suggest any particular urgency to try to squeeze him in right now at the expense of these other goals.

 

Mind you, I don't necessarily think your plan is bad -- I am excited to see Kirilloff too -- but I see nothing wrong with the plan the Twins are apparently choosing either.

[chpettit19]

 

It wouldn't be an even split, I agree. If Kiriloff starts one out of every 7-8 games at DH and 1B that gets him 8 starts. 3 games in LF and another 3 in RF and he's playing half of the games. Sano has had trouble with injuries for a while, and Cruz started to break down the last time the Twins played a full season as well. I don't think a few extra days off early in the season is the worst thing. Kepler giving up 3 games isn't huge. The only person it really impacts is Cave, as he's the left side of the OF platoon, and if we're worried about a platoon OFer not getting enough April ABs because the top hitting prospect in the organization is on the roster....well....

 

IMO being in a major league clubhouse and playing 50% of the time is more valuable than participating in simulated games in extended ST. If BP is the answer to keeping him in a rhythm then he can certainly get plenty of that on the days he isn't starting for the Twins. 

So you're basically asking 3 starts at each of the 4 spots? 12-15 starts? That would be nice. Don't think that's a crazy ask. I'll give you that.

 

But if he gets off to a 4 for 31 start against major league pitchers with scouting reports and trying much harder to get him out than the guys he was facing in ST who were still working on things do you think that's good for his development? I said in that other comment that I don't think there's any rules preventing him from being in the major league clubhouse when the team is in town. One of the nice things about AAA being in St Paul now. Even if I give you the idea they could get him decent amount of ABs in the first month that doesn't automatically make it useful. If he gets sliced up by the best pitchers on the planet while trying to find his swing and timing then has to be sent down that isn't productive.

 

Him being the top hitting prospect doesn't mean he's ready. We all wanted Buxton up because he was the top hitting prospect (better prospect than Kirilloff in fact) and the team gave us what we wanted. It set him back years. The next year they wanted to give him a confidence boost so he hit in the 3 hole to start the year and he had to be sent back down after that and set him back again. Kirilloff has played 1 competitive game since 2019 when he was good, but not insane at AA. There is no reason to start his clock by having him on the opening day roster when he clearly isn't ready to hit right now and you run a very high chance of setting him back when he can't hang at the major league level.

 

Let the kid get his swing and timing right and call him up then. If that's 1 week, 2 weeks, 3 months, or the whole season it shouldn't matter. That platoon OFer you're not concerned about getting ABs for has a real life .803 OPS against righties. That isn't something we're crossing our fingers and hoping for because he's the top prospect. Everyone we're talking about having Kirilloff replace, or take 3 starts from, has real life production at the major league level. If your hope is Kirilloff can be the left hand bat in a platoon with Rooker he isn't the prospect we think he is. The hope should be he can tell Rooker to go sit down cuz he's playing 155 games and mashing any and everyone thrown at him, not that he's Jake Cave.

 

We all want to see Kirilloff up and mashing. Lets give him the chance to get his swing right so we don't see him up and flailing before going back down. There will be guys who will pitch for the Twins this year who are getting sent to St Paul with him in a week and he can get his timing back against them. If Cave, Rooker, Astudillo, whoever gets off to a rough start or his swing clicks and he's launching balls all over call him up in a week. But throwing him in when he clearly isn't himself at the plate simply because he's a top prospect isn't how you develop prospects or set them up for success.

[KirbyDome89]

 

I get that you don't like Astudillo or a 9th reliever, but neither of those spots have anything to do with Kirilloff.

 

Kepler, Cruz, and Arraez are projected 3 WAR players. Sano's projection is only 2 WAR but he was a 3 WAR guy in 2019 and the team is committed to giving him a chance to do it again. These are not the guys we want to bench so we can achieve playing time equity across the whole 26-man roster.

 

I laid out the numbers in my post above, but trying to give even half-time starts to Kirilloff would have a noticeable impact on other roster goals. Kirilloff is a very good prospect but his performance and experience to date do not suggest any particular urgency to try to squeeze him in right now at the expense of these other goals.

 

Mind you, I don't necessarily think your plan is bad -- I am excited to see Kirilloff too -- but I see nothing wrong with the plan the Twins are apparently choosing either.

If Astudillo's primary contribution is utility, and Kirilloff fills that same role then I'd argue that they are related. While Kirilloff isn't a pitcher, there also isn't any rule that requires a team to carry 14 arms, so yes, that 14th pitcher is being given a spot over Kirilloff as well. 

 

Kepler plays 26/29 games

Cruz plays 25/29 games

Sano plays 25/29 games

Cave & Rooker platoon 25/29 games

 

That isn't anywhere close to an equitable outcome. If there's still angst over PT, Buxton can also take a couple games off which means Kepler or Cave can slide over to CF. I guess we'll just disagree on how much of an impact Kirilloff starting those games would have. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If Astudillo's primary contribution is utility, and Kirilloff fills that same role then I'd argue that they are related. While Kirilloff isn't a pitcher, there also isn't any rule that requires a team to carry 14 arms, so yes, that 14th pitcher is being given a spot over Kirilloff as well

It's not the spot, though -- it's the playing time. Astudillo might play once a week -- and there's nothing wrong with that! That means everybody else is healthy and hopefully productive. They can always reassess later and use the spot differently.

 

 

Kepler plays 26/29 games

Cruz plays 25/29 games

Sano plays 25/29 games

Cave & Rooker platoon 25/29 games

 

That isn't anywhere close to an equitable outcome. If there's still angst over PT, Buxton can also take a couple games off which means Kepler or Cave can slide over to CF. I guess we'll just disagree on how much of an impact Kirilloff starting those games would have. 

You missed Arraez in this analysis -- he's got a 3 WAR projection and might be our best leadoff hitter. I hope he gets more playing time than just backing up 2B/SS/3B. Garver and Jeffers might benefit from a DH or 1B game too. Also, there's no DH for the first 3 games of the season, so that takes 3 more starts away from our best projected hitter in Cruz. (And while I sympathize with the Cruz rest theory, I trust that the Twins are aware of his age and are already taking that into consideration with their current roster plan -- they don't need Kirilloff for that purpose.)

 

And all that just to get Kirilloff irregular at-bats over a month of MLB, without a set defensive position, starting his service clock before he's even a MLB regular, after a cold spring training, 1 active game in 2020, and no career AAA experience. Seems sub-optimal to me.

 

And none of this is set in stone. If Rooker looks really overmatched the first few weeks, we can always swap him for Kirilloff. If someone gets hurt, we can make a move too. If those things happen, or Astudillo is somehow starting 50% of games, and the Twins won't promote Kirilloff, I'll be right there criticizing them. But right now, I just don't see it. The current roster construction and expected playing time distribution look perfectly rational.

[KirbyDome89]

 

So you're basically asking 3 starts at each of the 4 spots? 12-15 starts? That would be nice. Don't think that's a crazy ask. I'll give you that.

 

But if he gets off to a 4 for 31 start against major league pitchers with scouting reports and trying much harder to get him out than the guys he was facing in ST who were still working on things do you think that's good for his development? I said in that other comment that I don't think there's any rules preventing him from being in the major league clubhouse when the team is in town. One of the nice things about AAA being in St Paul now. Even if I give you the idea they could get him decent amount of ABs in the first month that doesn't automatically make it useful. If he gets sliced up by the best pitchers on the planet while trying to find his swing and timing then has to be sent down that isn't productive.

 

Him being the top hitting prospect doesn't mean he's ready. We all wanted Buxton up because he was the top hitting prospect (better prospect than Kirilloff in fact) and the team gave us what we wanted. It set him back years. The next year they wanted to give him a confidence boost so he hit in the 3 hole to start the year and he had to be sent back down after that and set him back again. Kirilloff has played 1 competitive game since 2019 when he was good, but not insane at AA. There is no reason to start his clock by having him on the opening day roster when he clearly isn't ready to hit right now and you run a very high chance of setting him back when he can't hang at the major league level.

 

Let the kid get his swing and timing right and call him up then. If that's 1 week, 2 weeks, 3 months, or the whole season it shouldn't matter. That platoon OFer you're not concerned about getting ABs for has a real life .803 OPS against righties. That isn't something we're crossing our fingers and hoping for because he's the top prospect. Everyone we're talking about having Kirilloff replace, or take 3 starts from, has real life production at the major league level. If your hope is Kirilloff can be the left hand bat in a platoon with Rooker he isn't the prospect we think he is. The hope should be he can tell Rooker to go sit down cuz he's playing 155 games and mashing any and everyone thrown at him, not that he's Jake Cave.

 

We all want to see Kirilloff up and mashing. Lets give him the chance to get his swing right so we don't see him up and flailing before going back down. There will be guys who will pitch for the Twins this year who are getting sent to St Paul with him in a week and he can get his timing back against them. If Cave, Rooker, Astudillo, whoever gets off to a rough start or his swing clicks and he's launching balls all over call him up in a week. But throwing him in when he clearly isn't himself at the plate simply because he's a top prospect isn't how you develop prospects or set them up for success.

If he struggles then he goes down and faces the subpar extended ST pitching he's already lined up to see for the next month. There isn't anything lost by giving him major league ABs right now other than starting his service clock, and if six years from now the Twins are on the fence then things likely didn't work out as we'd all hoped they would. If he's going to be at the facilities and in the clubhouse I don't see why they wouldn't just give him the roster spot at that point. 

 

Kirilloff made his MLB debut in a postseason elimination game after not playing in a real baseball game for over a year. That kind of flies in the face of protecting his psyche and making sure his timing/rhythm is perfect before exposing him to high level pitching, no? 

 

I'm not dumping on Cave, he's fine as the left side of a platoon, but he's just that; a platoon OFer. Obviously there's value there, but he's not so talented that we should bemoan the fact that he may lose some ABs to a prospect like Kirilloff. Prospects have to break in somehow, and on a good team like the Twins it'll likely be at the expense of somebody with a major league track record. If my outlook had Kirilloff as a platoon OFer I wouldn't be irritated with his demotion. 

[KirbyDome89]

 

It's not the spot, though -- it's the playing time. Astudillo might play once a week -- and there's nothing wrong with that! That means everybody else is healthy and hopefully productive. They can always reassess later and use the spot differently.

 

 

You missed Arraez in this analysis -- he's got a 3 WAR projection and might be our best leadoff hitter. I hope he gets more playing time than just backing up 2B/SS/3B. Garver and Jeffers might benefit from a DH or 1B game too. Also, there's no DH for the first 3 games of the season, so that takes 3 more starts away from our best projected hitter in Cruz. (And while I sympathize with the Cruz rest theory, I trust that the Twins are aware of his age and are already taking that into consideration with their current roster plan -- they don't need Kirilloff for that purpose.)

 

And all that just to get Kirilloff irregular at-bats over a month of MLB, without a set defensive position, starting his service clock before he's even a MLB regular, after a cold spring training, 1 active game in 2020, and no career AAA experience. Seems sub-optimal to me.

 

And none of this is set in stone. If Rooker looks really overmatched the first few weeks, we can always swap him for Kirilloff. If someone gets hurt, we can make a move too. If those things happen, or Astudillo is somehow starting 50% of games, and the Twins won't promote Kirilloff, I'll be right there criticizing them. But right now, I just don't see it. The current roster construction and expected playing time distribution look perfectly rational.

100% agree. I think he likely plays even less than that. I'm against rostering a "break glass in case of emergency," player with options remaining. I view it as a waste of a spot. 

 

Rocco has kept the catcher postion around a 50/50 or 60/40 split, I wouldn't be too worried about either Garver or Jeffers getting PT. Honestly, I think Garver needs to show that last season was a fluke before we start trying to get his bat in at 1B or DH. Arraez is a fair point. I'm unsure how hard Donaldson will press to start the season so there could be some extra games at 3B and Rocco has been good at juggling lineups to get guys in. The OF is admittedly crowded with Kirilloff; I guess I'd argue that it'd only be that way for a month and if by the end of that time both Rooker and Kirilloff have made a case to stay the Twins would have a "good problem," on their hands. 

 

For me it's simple, I think the value of Kirilloff on the roster is greater than Astudillo + a 14th pitcher. I'd much rather the Twins start a season with their best possible team.

 

Adjustments can certainly be made. I'd be surprised if Kirilloff is back in 2 weeks, even if Rooker struggles. I think the Twins are in a nice position to protect service time so the impetus for a call up has to be pretty great. 

[Major League Ready]

Kirilloff is not even 2nd after Rooker for me. Garlick has been the best hitter in ST. Granted it's spring training. He also had 100 pt higher OPS at the MLB level in 2019 compared the Kirilloff numbers at AA. Garlick's AAA OPS was over 1,000. His history suggests he is better prepared to play at the MLB level.

 

We are supposed to bring guys up when they are ready to contribute not because fans are anxious to see them. What happened to let's take the best 26 players north? Kirilloff probably ends up being better than Garlick at some point but he certainly is not at the moment.

[chpettit19]

 

If he struggles then he goes down and faces the subpar extended ST pitching he's already lined up to see for the next month. There isn't anything lost by giving him major league ABs right now other than starting his service clock, and if six years from now the Twins are on the fence then things likely didn't work out as we'd all hoped they would. If he's going to be at the facilities and in the clubhouse I don't see why they wouldn't just give him the roster spot at that point. 

 

Kirilloff made his MLB debut in a postseason elimination game after not playing in a real baseball game for over a year. That kind of flies in the face of protecting his psyche and making sure his timing/rhythm is perfect before exposing him to high level pitching, no? 

 

I'm not dumping on Cave, he's fine as the left side of a platoon, but he's just that; a platoon OFer. Obviously there's value there, but he's not so talented that we should bemoan the fact that he may lose some ABs to a prospect like Kirilloff. Prospects have to break in somehow, and on a good team like the Twins it'll likely be at the expense of somebody with a major league track record. If my outlook had Kirilloff as a platoon OFer I wouldn't be irritated with his demotion. 

There's a lot to be lost by having him get ripped apart by major league pitching. It can set him back or destroy him all together. 

 

He made his debut in the postseason because he had to. Injuries to a number of guys ahead of him was the only reason he played that day. And they knew he had his timing down because they'd been watching him mash in St Paul, not get shredded by ST pitchers. There probably has never been a time in his life where he was feeling better from a psyche and timing perspective than last year when he got to see the same pitching day in and day out and lock in on his timing. 

 

Prospects on good teams have to earn their spot. What message does it send to the rest of the team when they watch a prospect struggle but replace one of them anyways? Is that sending "we're trying to win it all this year" messages? The idea is to put the best 26 guys out there each and every day. The fact is that Kirilloff is not one of the best 26 guys today. That could change tomorrow, April 1, April 25, May 15, June 22, July 4, August 1, September 25, or sometime next year. If you're trying to win a world series you don't put your prospect out there simply because he's your top prospect. He needs to earn it like every other guy. And he hasn't done that.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Kirilloff is not even 2nd after Rooker for me. Garlick has been the best hitter in ST. Granted it's spring training. He also had 100 pt higher OPS at the MLB level in 2019 compared the Kirilloff numbers at AA. Garlick's AAA OPS was over 1,000. His history suggests he is better prepared to play at the MLB level.

I wouldn't go that far. Garlick's 2019 and AAA OPS figures have been in hitter's leagues. His 2019 MLB wRC+ was only 114, with a 35.8% K rate. He's probably not as bad as his 2020 Phillies numbers suggest, but I'm not terribly eager to find what midpoint he could settle at. (ZiPS projects him for a 72 wRC+.)

 

By comparison, Kirilloff was in a pitcher's league in AA and posted a 121 wRC+, despite a wrist injury in the early part of the season -- then had an insanely good AA postseason that's not reflected in those numbers either.

[Major League Ready]

 

I wouldn't go that far. Garlick's 2019 and AAA OPS figures have been in hitter's leagues. His 2019 MLB wRC+ was only 114, with a 35.8% K rate. He's probably not as bad as his 2020 Phillies numbers suggest, but I'm not terribly eager to find what midpoint he could settle at. (ZiPS projects him for a 72 wRC+.)

 

By comparison, Kirilloff was in a pitcher's league in AA and posted a 121 wRC+, despite a wrist injury in the early part of the season -- then had an insanely good AA postseason that's not reflected in those numbers either.

 

As you know, wRC+ is a relative measure. It's relative to all other players in the league. The first problem in this case is that most AA players are never going to make it to MLB. Therefore, wRC+ has some flaws as a measure. We are not comparing to a group of eventual MLB players. We also need to account for position. Corner OFers have the 2nd highest OPS. Therefore, we would expect them to have a wRC+ significantly above 100. 

 

Having said all this ... I was aware of the points you made and they have merit. I was really just making a point that he was so bad this spring that I would have taken Garlick over him to start the season. Chpettit19 and others have outlined the numerous reasons for not bringing a guy up that is not ready. I am also not willing to go out of my way to burn an extra year of service time. It's really short-sighted to bring up a guy that is probably a liability at this point only to burn a year of control when he will probably be a great player. 

 

Can you think of an example where a corner OFer skipped AAA and went to MLB after producing a 759 OPS at AA? Jiminez had a 925 OPS at AA. Aaron Judge had an OPS 100 pts higher in AA and he was sent to AAA for 90 games.

[KirbyDome89]

 

There's a lot to be lost by having him get ripped apart by major league pitching. It can set him back or destroy him all together. 

 

He made his debut in the postseason because he had to. Injuries to a number of guys ahead of him was the only reason he played that day. And they knew he had his timing down because they'd been watching him mash in St Paul, not get shredded by ST pitchers. There probably has never been a time in his life where he was feeling better from a psyche and timing perspective than last year when he got to see the same pitching day in and day out and lock in on his timing. 

 

Prospects on good teams have to earn their spot. What message does it send to the rest of the team when they watch a prospect struggle but replace one of them anyways? Is that sending "we're trying to win it all this year" messages? The idea is to put the best 26 guys out there each and every day. The fact is that Kirilloff is not one of the best 26 guys today. That could change tomorrow, April 1, April 25, May 15, June 22, July 4, August 1, September 25, or sometime next year. If you're trying to win a world series you don't put your prospect out there simply because he's your top prospect. He needs to earn it like every other guy. And he hasn't done that.

I'm just not going to buy that he's currently so fragile that he needs to be protected from major league pitching, but 6 months ago he was alright to debut in a postseason elimination game after a year off. Also, no, the Twins didn't have to debut Kirilloff; they chose to do so. They could've rostered Wade instead of Kirilloff and even with Buxton's mid series injury Marwin could've taken over a corner OF spot with Adrianza taking over at 3B. Neither scenario is particularly appealing but if the goal was to "protect the kid," then they could've done it.

 

It sends the same message that opting not to roster ST standouts does; ST performances don't carry much weight. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

As you know, wRC+ is a relative measure. It's relative to all other players in the league. The first problem in this case is that most AA players are never going to make it to MLB. Therefore, wRC+ has some flaws as a measure. We are not comparing to a group of eventual MLB players. We also need to account for position. Corner OFers have the 2nd highest OPS. Therefore, we would expect them to have a wRC+ significantly above 100. 

There's no perfect metric to compare between levels and leagues (and nothing is going to rescue selective small samples like spring training and Garlick's 53 MLB PA in 2019), but wRC+ is going to have fewer flaws than the raw OPS numbers that you quoted.

 

 

Can you think of an example where a corner OFer skipped AAA and went to MLB after producing a 759 OPS at AA? Jiminez had a 925 OPS at AA. Aaron Judge had an OPS 100 pts higher in AA and he was sent to AAA for 90 games.

if you include the postseason -- just 5 more games -- Kirilloff's season OPS would have climbed to .793, or a ~127 wRC+. Considering he started the year playing through a wrist injury too, that number isn't noticeably different than, say, Bellinger's AA wRC+ of 142.

 

Bellinger had another ~90 PA at AAA but it's not clear that those 90 PA were critical to his development. I don't want Kirilloff to skip AAA, but with the AAA season starting a month late this year, if the alternative to sending Kirilloff down was 2 months of starting Kyle Garlick in a contending season, maybe I'd rather give Kirilloff a shot first.

 

Of course, in a non-Rooker world, I'd probably just use Arraez a lot more in LF (maybe I would anyway!). Maybe Garlick could hang around as a 4th or 5th outfielder -- roles for which he's not in direct competition with Kirilloff.

[Major League Ready]

 

There's no perfect metric to compare between levels and leagues (and nothing is going to rescue selective small samples like spring training and Garlick's 53 MLB PA in 2019), but wRC+ is going to have fewer flaws than the raw OPS numbers that you quoted.

 

 

if you include the postseason -- just 5 more games -- Kirilloff's season OPS would have climbed to .793, or a ~127 wRC+. Considering he started the year playing through a wrist injury too, that number isn't noticeably different than, say, Bellinger's AA wRC+ of 142.

 

Bellinger had another ~90 PA at AAA but it's not clear that those 90 PA were critical to his development. I don't want Kirilloff to skip AAA, but with the AAA season starting a month late this year, if the alternative to sending Kirilloff down was 2 months of starting Kyle Garlick in a contending season, maybe I'd rather give Kirilloff a shot first.

 

Of course, in a non-Rooker world, I'd probably just use Arraez a lot more in LF (maybe I would anyway!). Maybe Garlick could hang around as a 4th or 5th outfielder -- roles for which he's not in direct competition with Kirilloff.

 

I do agree the playoff stats should be considered. Having said this ... Can you name other corner OFers that skipped AAA after putting up an OPS of 800 or less? Did we learn from nothing from rushing Buxton? I would want to see concrete examples of players  with a similar performance record in the minors that have been well above average players at the MLB level. If they don't exist, why is there a debate?

 

Demonstrate that it has been done, preferably more than once. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I do agree the playoff stats should be considered. Having said this ... Can you name other corner OFers that skipped AAA after putting up an OPS of 800 or less? Did we learn from nothing from rushing Buxton? I would want to see concrete examples of players  with a similar performance record in the minors that have been well above average players at the MLB level. If they don't exist, why is there a debate?

 

Demonstrate that it has been done, preferably more than once. 

All I was responding to was this:

 

Kirilloff is not even 2nd after Rooker for me. Garlick has been the best hitter in ST. Granted it's spring training. He also had 100 pt higher OPS at the MLB level in 2019 compared the Kirilloff numbers at AA. Garlick's AAA OPS was over 1,000. His history suggests he is better prepared to play at the MLB level.

 

Garlick, despite an option and 2+ minimum salary years remaining, was passed over by the 24 worst MLB teams *twice* this offseason. That tells me more about his MLB readiness than his passable first 53 PA in MLB (ignoring his awful next 23), or his OPS while repeating the PCL at age 27 with the lively ball used at AAA in 2019:

 

https://mlb.nbcsports.com/2019/09/03/triple-a-homers-increased-by-nearly-60-percent-this-season-thanks-to-juiced-baseball/

 

As Jayson Stark of The Athletic notes this morning, that number includes a 59 percent increase in homers in the Pacific Coast League over last year and a 57 percent increase in the International League.  Stark talks with a baseball executive who tells him that, from a development perspective, the PCL has now become essentially useless, and they are sending prospects to Double-A instead because the juiced ball is preventing clubs from accurately assessing players.

 

If we're talking a 2 month opening for regular MLB starts, I'd at least be open to the idea of Kirilloff skipping AAA. I wouldn't automatically hand it to Kirilloff, but I wouldn't give it to Garlick by default either. At the very least, I would have played Kirilloff through to the end of spring training before making my decision; more likely, I would have sought other alternatives in the offseason.

 

Off the top of my head, Bellinger (142 wRC+) and Conforto (160 wRC+ in 197 PA but trending down, 118 wRC+ over his last month) are not exact matches for Kirilloff's 127 wRC+ performance in AA coming off his wrist injury, but nothing bright-line disqualifying. Their teams didn't have to consider a cancelled 2020 and delayed 2021 minor league season either -- Bellinger was promoted from AAA to make his MLB debut on April 25, a scenario not possible for the 2021 Twins. Nor did their teams prefer Garlick as a 2-month MLB starter!

[Major League Ready]

 

Do we really need to talk about how many guys are passed over and end up being good or even great players? Johan Santana was a rule 5 guy. How about Nick Anderson who we released and on and on and on.

 

The real point here is how often are teams willing to give up a year in a players prime for 3 weeks in their rookie season. Bellinger who was sent to AAA just long enough to get an extra year of service. He also had an OPS of 872 the year before he debuted so I fail to see how Bellinger is an example that supports your position.

 

Conforto was brought up in the middle of the season. While he is an example with some relevance in terms of players promoted aggressively. His path does not refute the primary point of emphasis here which is promoting a guy to start the season and losing a year of control. To do that in this specific case would be grossly incompetent. I was not cheering for the team to burn a year of control no matter how well Kirilloff performed. A year in exchange for 3 weeks is horrendous asset management. It's short sighted / fanatical thinking. How much difference could 3 weeks make and let's not forget Rooker earned the job with his Milb performance. Do we want to send the message to our prospects that their efforts and success will ignored in favor of promoting more highly touted prospect even if they have not proven themselves to the same degree as a lower ranked prospect?