Has Alex Kirilloff Played Himself Off the Opening Day Roster?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Sure, but some of those have proven themselves in the big leagues. Kiriloff has not. I'd keep Rooker he's done more at the major league level at this point.

Rooker is also a lot older, has a full season at AA, half a season at AAA, and played a handful of MLB games before getting injured last season.

 

Kirilloff certainly has a (much) higher ceiling than Rooker but there are plenty of reasons to go with Brent to open the season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I live near Chicago and I've been seeing the Kris Bryant story play over the course of these last few years. The bridge burning is definitely a thing. Most of baseball decisions are just business, of course. But it is in an organization's best interest long term not to go about all interactions voiding all human considerations. Especially when you're the Twins and you've repositioned the team as a place where everyone likes each other, stays loose, enjoys playing for the manager, and listens/collaborates with the analytics team. 

I generally agree but the current Kirilloff situation shares little in common with what the Cubs did to Bryant. Kirilloff played scrimmage games against the same pitchers all of last season, excluding a single postseason game, and unsurprisingly seems rusty as a result. The Twins also have Rooker, who appears to be more ready in the here and now, though has a lower upside than Alex.

 

Whereas the Cubs blatantly held back Bryant for service time considerations and everyone knew it.

[In My La Z boy]

Does Broxton have any options if we were to add him to the 40 man? I don't understand the mechanics on him, but I'd sure like to keep him around. He looks like someone who could help this team.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Does Broxton have any options if we were to add him to the 40 man? I don't understand the mechanics on him, but I'd sure like to keep him around. He looks like someone who could help this team.

Broxton has played in parts of five MLB seasons so I don't see any possible way he could have options remaining. I didn't pay attention to the transaction wire when the Twins picked him up but he's almost certainly a FA.

[Vanimal46]

No. Saying he should start the season because he started one game is silly especially while ignoring his competition for this position were not available for that game. Ignoring that Rooker and Garlick are much more proven is silly. Suggesting a player that has never produced above A+ should start day 1 is silly when you have multiple options that are proven at AAA and in Garlick's case proven at the MLB level. Wasting a year of control on a player that is not ready when you have good options is not silly, it would be massive incompetence and I would lose a whole lot of confidence in this FO if they even considered Kirilloff at this point.

 

The clinging to the fact he started a playoff game while ignoring absolutely everything else. including the fact he has sucked this spring is fanaticism at it's finest. You can't make a case based on performance so you are clinging to the fact he started ONE game when Rooker was hurt and Garlick / Broxton were not on the team.

You must have missed Kirilloff’s entire stay in AA so far? How do you measure Garlick and Rooker’s proven worth above Kirilloff? Kirilloff is a consensus top 20 prospect in all of baseball and touted as the best pure hitting prospect since perhaps Joe Mauer in this organization. Neither player has been highly touted as a prospect, locally or nationally. Spring training stats don’t translate to regular season baseball.

[chpettit19]

 

I live near Chicago and I've been seeing the Kris Bryant story play over the course of these last few years. The bridge burning is definitely a thing. Most of baseball decisions are just business, of course. But it is in an organization's best interest long term not to go about all interactions voiding all human considerations. Especially when you're the Twins and you've repositioned the team as a place where everyone likes each other, stays loose, enjoys playing for the manager, and listens/collaborates with the analytics team. 

Kris Bryant would absolutely sign with Chicago at the end of the year if they offer him the best deal. Not to mention comparing the 2 situations is pretty off base. Kris Bryant had an OPS over 1.000 at AAA the season before he had his service time manipulated, not a canceled season coming off a .756 OPS in AA. And Kris Bryant hit over .400 and lead spring training in homers the year they kept him down for 2 weeks. Bryant is the most outlandish example of service time manipulation you can come up with so comparing him to a guy who hasn't even dominated AA seems to be the wrong route to take. And after the Cubs screwing him over he'd still sign there. The problem is the Cubs don't want to pay him so him and Boras will hit the market and take the money from somewhere else.

[chpettit19]

 

You must have missed Kirilloff’s entire stay in AA so far? How do you measure Garlick and Rooker’s proven worth above Kirilloff? Kirilloff is a consensus top 20 prospect in all of baseball and touted as the best pure hitting prospect since perhaps Joe Mauer in this organization. Neither player has been highly touted as a prospect, locally or nationally. Spring training stats don’t translate to regular season baseball.

He said hasn't produced above A+. Which is true. Unless you think a .756 OPS in AA is something demanding of a promotion to the majors.

[In My La Z boy]

 

Broxton has played in parts of five MLB seasons so I don't see any possible way he could have options remaining. I didn't pay attention to the transaction wire when the Twins picked him up but he's almost certainly a FA.

I'd like to hang on to him somehow. Talk about former potential - and currently he looks like a keeper to me. FO's push to draft and develop corner OF is creating a logjam - or will create a future logjam. How many true centerfielders do we have coming - Celestino and who? If Buck goes down this year, we have Kepler and Cave. Not ideal. 

[chpettit19]

 

I'd like to hang on to him somehow. Talk about former potential - and currently he looks like a keeper to me. FO's push to draft and develop corner OF is creating a logjam - or will create a future logjam. How many true centerfielders do we have coming - Celestino and who? If Buck goes down this year, we have Kepler and Cave. Not ideal. 

Hanging onto him isn't a bad idea for some extra insurance, but him dominating minor league pitchers in spring training this year shouldn't make us forget he turns 31 in May and has a career .209 BA in the bigs. Short term Bux insurance if Celestino isn't ready, but if the season comes down to Broxton playing 100 games in CF I'm not excited.

[Vanimal46]

He said hasn't produced above A+. Which is true. Unless you think a .756 OPS in AA is something demanding of a promotion to the majors.

You’re dismissing his wrist injury that plagued his start in 2019, and apparently no development at all in 2020.

[In My La Z boy]

 

Hanging onto him isn't a bad idea for some extra insurance, but him dominating minor league pitchers in spring training this year shouldn't make us forget he turns 31 in May and has a career .209 BA in the bigs. Short term Bux insurance if Celestino isn't ready, but if the season comes down to Broxton playing 100 games in CF I'm not excited.

Just playing off Vanimal's comments in that Broxton had the Kirilloff hype and status at one time. Could all the promise finally happen at 31 for him? I agree completely - if we only get 62 games out of Buxton we're in trouble. Lewis out, Celestino not ready. I'd like some Byron insurance.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

You must have missed Kirilloff’s entire stay in AA so far? How do you measure Garlick and Rooker’s proven worth above Kirilloff? Kirilloff is a consensus top 20 prospect in all of baseball and touted as the best pure hitting prospect since perhaps Joe Mauer in this organization. Neither player has been highly touted as a prospect, locally or nationally. Spring training stats don’t translate to regular season baseball.

I don't think anyone here is crazy enough to measure Garlick's worth over Kirilloff but bench guys are needed and if it comes to one or the other sitting around and doing nothing five days a week, I choose Garlick.

 

As for Rooker, the picture gets a lot muddier if you compare him to Kirilloff. Previous MiLB performances are pretty outdated at this point but Rooker hit quite well in the upper minors (~.850 OPS) while Kirilloff scuffled (~.750 OPS, largely due to injury but the numbers are still there) and Brent has a lot more experience facing higher calibre pitching. Rooker is a lot older and likely closer to his peak self as of today. And, to be blunt, the team probably doesn't care as much if Rooker receives inconsistent playing time at the MLB level while they're more focused in on Kirilloff's development arc.

 

I can see some pretty legitimate arguments for keeping Kirilloff in the minors for now without even factoring in service time.

[chpettit19]

 

You’re dismissing his wrist injury that plagued his start in 2019, and apparently no development at all in 2020.

Nope, I'm not. You responded to a post saying he hasn't produced above A+ by saying that person must have missed his time in AA. I pointed out that he has, in fact, not produced above A+. You're crossing your fingers and suggesting he should start because he's ranked highly on prospect boards in an attempt to counter other's arguments that he hasn't produced and earned that spot above other players who have done more at higher levels. 

 

None of us are arguing that he doesn't have a brighter future than Rooker, Garlic, et al. We're arguing he shouldn't be on the opening day roster after looking lost at the plate more ABs than not this spring, having missed an entire season (hitting against the same pitchers for a year in St Paul isn't the same as playing a season, sorry), and having a .756 OPS in AA simply because he's Alex Kirilloff and he's a top prospect. He has done nothing to earn it beyond dominating A ball 3 years ago.

[chpettit19]

 

Just playing off Vanimal's comments in that Broxton had the Kirilloff hype and status at one time. Could all the promise finally happen at 31 for him? I agree completely - if we only get 62 games out of Buxton we're in trouble. Lewis out, Celestino not ready. I'd like some Byron insurance.

Buxton insurance is always needed. Be interesting to see what they do with Broxton not being on the 40 man and him probably wanting to get a shot in the bigs on another team if he can.

[In My La Z boy]

 

Buxton insurance is always needed. Be interesting to see what they do with Broxton not being on the 40 man and him probably wanting to get a shot in the bigs on another team if he can.

Exactly. Every other outfielder is on the 40 man, and has options. Broxton is the only one we could lose. I'd put him on the roster and send Cave, Garlick and Kirilloff down. Rooker/Arraez cover LF - Broxton is #4/5 along with some turtle just in case. Losing Broxton when you don't have to seems like a wasted opportunity, we can cut him in May if we need to.

[Rosterman]

You shudder looking at those spring training numbers. Sano, Kepler and Buxton all playing dismal. Yet you gotta keep them.

 

The reason to keep Cave is that he is the backup for centerfield? Kepler can play center in a pinch. Otherwise, you jettison Cave and keep Garlick. Rooker, too...who can backup first base and DH (with Garver).

 

You go with hot bats sometimes, especially with players on the margin. If you lose Cave, if Garlick doesn't work out, you have Broxton.

 

Willians has played himself into a roster spot. All-around utility guy. Will allow the Twins to get Garver at bats at 1B or DH if need be

 

All I can say is Kepler needs some work, again. And don't bat him lead-off until he figures out what is happening to his swing!

 

This has to be the year that Sano, Buxton and Kepler show their worth to the organization. Kirilloff needs to play everyday, as does Larnach...and both should shine at AAA. 

 

What to do with Nick Gordon!

[Vanimal46]

Nope, I'm not. You responded to a post saying he hasn't produced above A+ by saying that person must have missed his time in AA. I pointed out that he has, in fact, not produced above A+. You're crossing your fingers and suggesting he should start because he's ranked highly on prospect boards in an attempt to counter other's arguments that he hasn't produced and earned that spot above other players who have done more at higher levels.

 

None of us are arguing that he doesn't have a brighter future than Rooker, Garlic, et al. We're arguing he shouldn't be on the opening day roster after looking lost at the plate more ABs than not this spring, having missed an entire season (hitting against the same pitchers for a year in St Paul isn't the same as playing a season, sorry), and having a .756 OPS in AA simply because he's Alex Kirilloff and he's a top prospect. He has done nothing to earn it beyond dominating A ball 3 years ago.

You’re looking at just one number, his OPS, and not taking into consideration the league he played in. .283/.343/.413 for a 129 wRC+ in a pitcher friendly league. He produced massively for our AA team in the playoffs. What y’all are doing is really overthinking things. Who’s the more talented player? To me it’s Kirilloff hands down. Here’s a link to an article explaining it better than I want to.

 

https://accesstwins.substack.com/p/for-the-twins-holding-back-alex-kirilloff

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Exactly. Every other outfielder is on the 40 man, and has options. Broxton is the only one we could lose. I'd put him on the roster and send Cave, Garlick and Kirilloff down. Rooker/Arraez cover LF - Broxton is #4/5 along with some turtle just in case. Losing Broxton when you don't have to seems like a wasted opportunity, we can cut him in May if we need to.

That's a pretty raw deal for Cave, who looks particularly appealing as a platoon candidate with Rooker and has all but earned an MLB roster spot until he shows otherwise (I'm basically writing off all 2020 performances because there are so many crazy, unexplained oddities in individual performances).

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The reason to keep Cave is that he is the backup for centerfield? Kepler can play center in a pinch. Otherwise, you jettison Cave and keep Garlick. Rooker, too...who can backup first base and DH (with Garver).

Can someone explain to me why we're so bullish on Garlick? Because of 28 Spring Training plate appearances?

 

Come on, people, you've all been baseball fans long enough to know better than that.

 

Even ignoring the bit about rusty pitchers and facing MiLB quality talent, Garlick could have five bad games in a row and his stats are pedestrian, if not terrible, again.

 

Sigh.

[Harrison Greeley III]

 

Kris Bryant would absolutely sign with Chicago at the end of the year if they offer him the best deal. Not to mention comparing the 2 situations is pretty off base. Kris Bryant had an OPS over 1.000 at AAA the season before he had his service time manipulated, not a canceled season coming off a .756 OPS in AA. And Kris Bryant hit over .400 and lead spring training in homers the year they kept him down for 2 weeks. Bryant is the most outlandish example of service time manipulation you can come up with so comparing him to a guy who hasn't even dominated AA seems to be the wrong route to take. And after the Cubs screwing him over he'd still sign there. The problem is the Cubs don't want to pay him so him and Boras will hit the market and take the money from somewhere else.

It did create ill will that all but ruled out the possibility of extending him when he was putting up MVP numbers though. Of course he would take the Cubs offer if they were top bidder in free agency. That's basically the point, If you treat players like commodities, that's the depth of the relationship you can expect in return. There's a value in treating your players well. 

And for the record, I'm aware the situations are different and I said upthread I have issues with Kirilloff making the team. 

"Nevertheless, he needed to force the issue in March and he hasn't. I do see the potential problem in how much it would sting if he's up with the Twins in April and looks lost at the plate like Aaron Hicks in 2013."

I think the service time thing is a consideration, but it's a dicey subject and the Twins need to be careful on this one. 

[Vanimal46]

I don't think anyone here is crazy enough to measure Garlick's worth over Kirilloff but bench guys are needed and if it comes to one or the other sitting around and doing nothing five days a week, I choose Garlick.

 

As for Rooker, the picture gets a lot muddier if you compare him to Kirilloff. Previous MiLB performances are pretty outdated at this point but Rooker hit quite well in the upper minors (~.850 OPS) while Kirilloff scuffled (~.750 OPS, largely due to injury but the numbers are still there) and Brent has a lot more experience facing higher calibre pitching. Rooker is a lot older and likely closer to his peak self as of today. And, to be blunt, the team probably doesn't care as much if Rooker receives inconsistent playing time at the MLB level while they're more focused in on Kirilloff's development arc.

 

I can see some pretty legitimate arguments for keeping Kirilloff in the minors for now without even factoring in service time.

Okay, let’s go through the arguments. He could play sparingly right now at the MLB level, or play zero baseball until May 1 at AAA. What’s better for the development arc?

 

Rooker and Garlick have more past experience against AAA/AAAA pitching. Who cares? Kirilloff is younger than them, so of course he doesn’t have similar experience.

 

Why prioritize Rooker or Garlick’s playing time now when they aren’t likely to be better than Kirilloff 6 months from now?

[mrkarbo]

Man I am glad baseball is back. I just love these kind of discussions.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Exactly. Every other outfielder is on the 40 man, and has options. Broxton is the only one we could lose. I'd put him on the roster and send Cave, Garlick and Kirilloff down. Rooker/Arraez cover LF - Broxton is #4/5 along with some turtle just in case. Losing Broxton when you don't have to seems like a wasted opportunity, we can cut him in May if we need to.

You'd need to clear a 40-man roster spot for Broxton, so you'd lose somebody doing it this way.

 

Also, it was reported at MLB.com that Broxton does *not* have an opt-out at the end of spring training. So the Twins could assign him to AAA and not lose him.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Okay, let’s go through the arguments. He could play sparingly right now at the MLB level, or play zero baseball until May 1 at AAA. What’s better for the development arc?

 

Rooker and Garlick have more past experience against AAA/AAAA pitching. Who cares? Kirilloff is younger than them, so of course he doesn’t have similar experience.

 

Why prioritize Rooker or Garlick’s playing time now when they aren’t likely to be better than Kirilloff 6 months from now?

Why prioritize Rooker’s playing time right now?

 

Maybe because the Twins feel they’ll field a better team in April by doing so.

 

And it’s not as if Kirilloff will be sitting around doing nothing. I’m sure he’ll be playing some form of extended spring training, though it’d be a lot better (and an easier decision to make) if MLB hadn’t postponed the AAA season.

[Harrison Greeley III]

 

The reason to keep Cave is that he is the backup for centerfield? Kepler can play center in a pinch. Otherwise, you jettison Cave and keep Garlick. Rooker, too...who can backup first base and DH (with Garver).

I think I'd rather have Broxton in Cave's role, honestly. His defense grades out better, he can play CF well, he'd make a good pinch runner, and expectations for their bats are a wash. 

[Dman]

 

You must have missed Kirilloff’s entire stay in AA so far? How do you measure Garlick and Rooker’s proven worth above Kirilloff? Kirilloff is a consensus top 20 prospect in all of baseball and touted as the best pure hitting prospect since perhaps Joe Mauer in this organization. Neither player has been highly touted as a prospect, locally or nationally. Spring training stats don’t translate to regular season baseball.

 

I get that Kirilloff is a highly regarded prospect but why does that mean he has to start the season with the Twins?  I don't understand your fixation there.  Rooker isn't chump change he is and has been a highly regarded power hitter.  A top 10 guy in the Twins system. A guy who OPS'd 933 in AAA to Kirilloff' 756 OPS in AA.  Both players play left field and 1st base but Rookers production to this point including spring training has been better than anything Kirilloff has done to this point.

 

GM's don't just dismiss production for hype or promise.  It doesn't matter that Nick Gordon was a 1st round draft choice and a top 5 Prospect in the system and Arraez was virtually no where to be found.  Production separated them and the results are one is playing MLB and the other will be in AAA.  

 

Do I think Kirilloff will be better than Rooker eventually, I do. He has a great swing and great feel for the game but what's the hurry to get him up when we have someone just as good and likely better this year in Rooker.  Have him come up when his bat is hot and he has confidence, this service time stuff just needs to stop at this point.  His production speaks for itself and he is not ready for the season. He would need to be absolutely awesome in the few chances he has left this spring to change that.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Is Cave out of options?

No, Cave has 1 option year remaining.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think I'd rather have Broxton in Cave's role, honestly. His defense grades out better, he can play CF well, he'd make a good pinch runner, and expectations for their bats are a wash.

The expectations for Cave and Broxton’s bats aren’t close to a wash. Cave has proven himself a capable MLB hitter, Broxton has not... and Cave is quite a bit younger, to boot.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think I'd rather have Broxton in Cave's role, honestly. His defense grades out better, he can play CF well, he'd make a good pinch runner, and expectations for their bats are a wash. 

I'm not so sure on that last point. ZiPS projects Broxton at a 55 wRC+, and Cave at a 98. Even if you think Broxton has righted himself after his disastrous 2019, he was only at 85 wRC+ for 2017-2018 -- and Cave was 111 for the two years prior to 2020.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Of note, as well, there is no backup for Sanó if Kirilloff is sent to the minors.

Astudillo has a few games at first this spring (and previously in his career). Blankenhorn has a game there this spring too, although he hadn't played it in the minors in 6 years (since rookie ball).

 

Garver's had a few innings there each season, Rooker has some games there in the minors and college but none yet this spring.