.624 OPS Spring

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The average OPS for a corner OF is .819. 

I'm not sure where you are looking, but MLB corner OF as a whole had a .761 OPS in 2020. Basically a 105 wRC+ every year lately:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=38,40&splitArrPitch=&position=B&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=mlb&statgroup=2&startDate=2016-03-01&endDate=2020-11-01&players=&filter=&groupBy=season&sort=-1,1

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Split the difference and call it half the season. That's an awful lot of rope or leeway to give a guy who's been a decent but not great hitter, has one total hit in three playoffs, and is currently mired in a slump that goes back to last year.

 

Again, I like Max in terms of potential, but delivery is lagging. A platoon with Rooker could make sense to start the year. If Max is still struggling, we've got two lefties waiting in Kirilloff and Larnach. Either's bat may make more sense than Max's defense. Hitting looks like our problem this year. As it was last year. Half a season of bad hitting from a key position will put us in a hole we won't climb out of now that Chicago is contending.

My primary point is that I'm not concerned about it until it becomes a problem.

 

And the Twins have invested quite a bit in Kepler for the next few seasons, he's going to get every opportunity to play through a potential issue.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The .819 comes from Baseball Prospectives Kevin Golstein. He took the average ops of the top 30 players at each position, 60 for corner outfielders since he combines left and right fielders. This strikes me as a better methodology to determine the average for a starting corner outfielder. Fangraphs appears to take everybody’s at bats at the positions. The Fangraphs methodology tends to push down the average for each position because it includes all of your retreads, try out guys, fourth and fifth outfielders playing an occasional day, Guys in September getting their feet wet, etc., and that drags on the average. I think the better comparison is to compare him against starting players since that’s what is for the Twins. The explanation is at scoresheetwiz.tripod.com. They say replacement value for a corner OF is .756, essentially the Fangraphs number.

I'm not so sure that's a better methodology. Looks like this is the direct link for it: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/6516/future-shock-positional-differences/

 

That link and the specific .819 figure are outdated -- it was based on stats covering 2004-2006. League non-pitcher OPS was .773 over those 3 years; it's only .753 the last 3 years (2018-2020). Adjusting your .819 figure down by the same amount puts it at .799 -- with little practical difference from Kepler's .786 OPS in the same 3 years. On that basis alone, I'm not sure this is a meaningful criticism of Kepler, but there are more issues with the figure too:

 

1. The article says it includes the 30 guys with the most starts at each position. Assuming that's top 30 overall over the 3 year period, the "average RF" numbers include guys like Larry Walker -- but he only started 147 games total over the 3 year period (indeed, he was retired and didn't even play the last year). If Kepler can play 150 games a year, is it right to compare him to guys who can only handle 50-80 games a year? And to ignore the 80-100 games those teams have to play other guys?

 

2. With that low threshold of starts, it's also likely including guys who are part-time at the position, but full-time overall (filling out the rest of their at-bats at 1B and/or DH). And based on the primitive nature of most online splits circa 2007, I'm guessing they included a batter's total stats, not just those accumulated at the particular defensive position. If Kepler can handle 150 games a year defensively at the position, is it right to compare him to guys who can only handle as few as 50 games in the outfield but accumulate up to 100 games worth of stats at easier positions? And again, ignoring the 100 games those other teams have to fill at the position?

 

3. Raw OPS isn't park corrected. In league-wide stats, this is a wash, but if you are looking at a subset of players like this, it could skew the sample a bit. (Indeed, I notice the 2004-2006 RF list includes two Colorado Rockies batters, Burnitz and Hawpe, plus 20% of Larry Walker's PAs those years were with Colorado too.)

[h2oface]

Back to the original post question.......... "Anyone else worried about this lack of hits so far in spring?"

 

Yes. Now, as we get so close to the opening of the season, totally worried. This team is hardly hitting at all. I certainly expected them to warm up and get going. Sure, none of these games count yet, and this could all change as they do.... but count me as worried.

[AceWrigley]

If the spring training offense were a character in the original Star Trek series, one line would describe it. "He's dead, Jim"

[BeatTheRich]

 

If the spring training offense were a character in the original Star Trek series, one line would describe it. "He's dead, Jim"

 

Maybe, but if this were Monty Python, that same offense slung over the guy's shoulder would insist, "I'm not dead yet! I think I'll go for a walk."

 

Hope springs eternal.

[AceWrigley]

 

Maybe, but if this were Monty Python, that same offense slung over the guy's shoulder would insist, "I'm not dead yet! I think I'll go for a walk."

 

Hope springs eternal.

"In this clip, a dead man pretends to be alive in order to avoid "the cart"". Sounds like the final cuts of spring training.

[BeatTheRich]

 

"In this clip, a dead man pretends to be alive in order to avoid "the cart"". Sounds like the final cuts of spring training.

 

Lots of dreams being dashed right now, for sure. For some, there's always next year. For others... there's not going to be a Randy Dobnak-like ending.

 

On the subject of the sorry OPS we've accumulated, I've noticed a lot more fringe and A-ball players getting a lot of at-bats this spring. More than usual, to my eye. Maybe due to Covid and the delayed start to the minor league season. Guys like Sabato getting their first taste of MLB pitching. That has to be dragging down the OPS somewhat.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Lots of dreams being dashed right now, for sure. For some, there's always next year. For others... there's not going to be a Randy Dobnak-like ending.

 

On the subject of the sorry OPS we've accumulated, I've noticed a lot more fringe and A-ball players getting a lot of at-bats this spring. More than usual, to my eye. .

With the season in the rear view mirror already, good to give the young guys a look

[BeatTheRich]

 

With the season in the rear view mirror already, good to give the young guys a look

 

Absolutely agree. Give them a taste. Let them know what they have to work on. I was just trying to provide context around the disappointing OPS.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Absolutely agree. Give them a taste. Let them know what they have to work on. I was just trying to provide context around the disappointing OPS.

Without Astudillo, the OPS this spring might be closer to .246

[Thegrin]

U suspect that come next November, reading this thread will be very amusing.

[Number3]

2 days.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Not hitting is definitely worse and less fun than hitting but until I see the offense stumble for a few weeks in the regular season, I just can’t put stock in spring training stats. I’ve been a baseball fan for way too long to fall into that trap again.

[Thebigalguy]

I don't worry about spring stats. I do worry about the new hitting coach and whether he's capable of addressing each player's tendencies and straightening them out when they need his assistance.

[AceWrigley]

Twins go 1-21 in 7 innings against the Pirates today, a lead off single by Arraez in the 1st.

 

The Bumba Squad.

[h2oface]

People saying they are not worried..... at least a little bit? I don't believe them for a second. 

[Danchat]

 

People saying they are not worried..... at least a little bit? I don't believe them for a second. 

I'm definitely worried about Kepler, Sano, and Buxton. The rest should be alright. I think Sano sets the all-time strikeout record this year (by K%, not by total Ks).

[Trov]

Spring numbers never worry me.  I used to put stock in spring numbers and would get excited for some guys only to watch them fall flat on face once season started.  Just as I would also freak out that guys were having bad springs then would take off once season starts.  There are many reasons for spring numbers that we as observers will never know.  

 

One, the sample size is so small that two good games and numbers increase a ton.  Two, players may be trying to work on some specific things that may affect their performance.  For example, if a player is working on tracking pitches they may take some early pitches that they normally would swing at and hit.  Possibly a hitter may be working on trying to beat a shift, or drive pitches opposite field, or other things.  

 

Once the season starts we will see how they do.  If in a week or two our offense is bottom of the league then I will start to worry, but until then I will just chalk it up to being spring training. 

[mike8791]

Flash!  Final ST #s in!  Twins win the trifecta.  Dead last(out of 30) in BA, OBP, OPS.

 

To top it off, we have 5 regulars under the Mendoza Line:

 

Garver - .172

Sano - .159

Simmons - .138

Buxton - .135

Kepler - .070

 

I know pitchers use ST to experiment with tweaks in their arsenal but I thought hitters use ST for getting ready for the regular season.  Let's hope these above results are quickly forgotten.  The stench is pretty bad!

[stringer bell]

 

Flash!  Final ST #s in!  Twins win the trifecta.  Dead last(out of 30) in BA, OBP, OPS.

 

To top it off, we have 5 regulars under the Mendoza Line:

 

Garver - .172

Sano - .159

Simmons - .138

Buxton - .135

Kepler - .070

 

I know pitchers use ST to experiment with tweaks in their arsenal but I thought hitters use ST for getting ready for the regular season.  Let's hope these above results are quickly forgotten.  The stench is pretty bad!

I guess I'd be more worried if these guys were all ready to fall off a cliff, but given their ages, I don't think it is that likely. Simmons is 31, Garver 30, Kepler 28, Sanó and Buxton 27. 

 

I'm worried that Buxton and Sanó will never be perennial All-Stars for the Twins and that Kepler hasn't stayed consistent to date, but they are good players and if they don't hit the team probably won't be very good. They are invested in those players.

[twinkies8791]

All season keep an eye on when Sano has two strikes how many times will he not strikeout.  When Santana pitched for us when he would get two strikes on a hitter great chance he strikes out.  Sano when he has two strikes.......