.624 OPS Spring

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Yeah, it has been studied and the consensus is that spring training stats are not particularly predictive for players or for teams (although I've read there is some correlation in team SB numbers, but as a team strategy decision more than a performance one).

Sure, traditional stats, a couple of home runs this week and Kepler’s spring looks normal again. but what about the new metrics? Does Kepler’s bat speed / exit velocity / spray chart compare with prior spring trainings? Are those worth looking at?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Are you a superstitious person? Could your website(s) be linked to the curse?

I've often wondered that but the Twins already had a three game losing streak by the time I founded BYTO so I think I'm in the clear.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Sure, traditional stats, a couple of home runs this week and Kepler’s spring looks normal again. but what about the new metrics? Does Kepler’s bat speed / exit velocity / spray chart compare with prior spring trainings? Are those worth looking at?

I think those are the kind of things the Twins are looking at, amongst other things.

 

Does the public have access to that stuff for ST yet? I haven't looked into it.

[wsnydes]

 

I've often wondered that but the Twins already had a three game losing streak by the time I founded BYTO so I think I'm in the clear.

Perhaps you inadvertently offended the baseball Gods and the losing streak is just their way of smiting you for the long haul?

 

They are a fickle bunch, the Gods...

[Dodecahedron]

 

Zero postseason wins certainly matter but the fact that it matters doesn't mean there's a correlation between the current team's hitting approach and their previous postseason failure.

 

OK, but I never made the correlation between their hitting approach and their postseason woes. Honestly, I think the problem is in their heads. Their hitting approach has nothing to do with the streak.

 

The Rams teams in the 70s always fell in the playoffs to the Vikings. The Astros teams in the 90s always fell to the Braves. The Twins have a similar problem with another team -- a team that other teams in the league are able to beat.

 

We also need to level-set a bit on 2020. The Twins were cooked before the playoffs began. We can overthink that and focus on their 2020 playoff losses, but the Twins were done before those games even started. Again, I think the problem there was in their heads, and in 2020's case, who could blame them?

 

The point is -- 100-win seasons are not meaningful. Right now, the only metric that the world at large knows and will remember about the Twins is their playoff losing streak. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I've often wondered that but the Twins already had a three game losing streak by the time I founded BYTO so I think I'm in the clear.

But they also won a playoff game in 2004, so the "sweep streak" rests solely on your shoulders!

[Danchat]

I'm pretty surprised that anyone cares at all about Spring Training stats. I feel like every single year either the concerns from slow starters or the helium on someone knocking the stiches off the ball wind up largely looking really silly by April 30th.

Reminds me of when Robbie Grossman started out hitting .050 in spring training or something, then hit .300 through April and May. Yeah, I have concerns about a few hitters, but we’ll have forgotten all of this banter in a month’s time.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Sure, traditional stats, a couple of home runs this week and Kepler’s spring looks normal again. but what about the new metrics? Does Kepler’s bat speed / exit velocity / spray chart compare with prior spring trainings? Are those worth looking at?

 

 

I think those are the kind of things the Twins are looking at, amongst other things.

 

Does the public have access to that stuff for ST yet? I haven't looked into it.

 

I just went to the Statcast site and saw some spring training games, but when I did a search it returned this warning at the top:

 

Only games played in the spring homes for these teams will return data: ARI, COL, DET, MIA, MIN, NYM, NYY, PHI, PIT, STL, TOR.

 

So yes, there is some public data, but it's limited.

 

There have been some write-ups using spring data from around the league. Broxton gets mentioned in this article:

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/new-exit-velocity-highs/

 

Former Twin prospect Akil Baddoo gets mentioned in this one too:

https://www.mlb.com/news/prospect-statcast-standouts-in-spring-training

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I just went to the Statcast site and saw some spring training games, but when I did a search it returned this warning at the top:

 

Only games played in the spring homes for these teams will return data: ARI, COL, DET, MIA, MIN, NYM, NYY, PHI, PIT, STL, TOR.

 

So yes, there is some public data, but it's limited.

 

There have been some write-ups using spring data from around the league. Broxton gets mentioned in this article:

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/new-exit-velocity-highs/

 

Former Twin prospect Akil Baddoo gets mentioned in this one too:

https://www.mlb.com/news/prospect-statcast-standouts-in-spring-training

That makes sense, as I know the underlying tech needed for some of this stuff hasn't been universally implemented in spring training facilities (but is available in most of them, IIRC from previous reading).

[Azviking101]

Welp, now Kiriloff is gone.

Good enough to start in the playoffs but not opening day.

I was really hoping now that the team is good that they wouldn’t do this anymore, but it’s just their way. Handicap the current team to save future money and potentially help the future team.

 

This off-season the twins have replaced Rosario, Odorizzi, May, Wisler, Hill, Clippard with Rooker, Colome, Robles, Simmons, Happ, Shoemaker. And the White Sox got way better again. Not good.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Welp, now Kiriloff is gone.

Good enough to start in the playoffs but not opening day.

I was really hoping now that the team is good that they wouldn’t do this anymore, but it’s just their way. Handicap the current team to save future money and potentially help the future team.

 

This off-season the twins have replaced Rosario, Odorizzi, May, Wisler, Hill, Clippard with Rooker, Colome, Robles, Simmons, Happ, Shoemaker. And the White Sox got way better again. Not good.

Honest question: why are so many convinced that Alex Kirilloff is a better option than Brent Rooker in April of 2021?

 

The only person you put on that list that is hard to replace is Trevor May, given that Odorizzi barely played (and when he did, badly) in 2020.

 

I suspect the Twins get similar production from LF this season without Rosario. He simply wasn’t a very well-rounded player who graded out as adequate MLB starter material, performance that can pretty easily be replicated by a Rooker/Cave platoon hopefully giving way to Kirilloff starting later this season.

 

PS. Kirilloff wouldn’t have started last October if Rooker and Buxton weren’t injured; it was an act of desperation, not a planned event.

[Azviking101]

Honest question: why are so many convinced that Alex Kirilloff is a better option than Brent Rooker in April of 2021?

 

The only person you put on that list that is hard to replace is Trevor May, given that Odorizzi barely played (and when he did, badly) in 2020.

 

I suspect the Twins get similar production from LF this season without Rosario. He simply wasn’t a very well-rounded player who graded out as adequate MLB starter material, performance that can pretty easily be replicated by a Rooker/Cave platoon hopefully giving way to Kirilloff starting later this season.

 

PS. Kirilloff wouldn’t have started last October if Rooker and Buxton weren’t injured; it was an act of desperation, not a planned event.

 

Because he's a top 25 prospect on every ranking I've ever seen and Cave and Rooker have never even made the lists. Because scouts think he's going to be a star. Because this team has a window to win in the playoffs now. 

 

I really don't think that sending him to an alternate site to play batting practice is going to do anything for him as a player. Aren't we all just sick and tired of the Twins waiting to bring up all their prospects until they're 24 or 25? All across MLB, prospects are coming up and immediately helping the team out. Are there growing pains? Sure, but half this roster still has growing pains.

 

I'm more basing the replacements off of their 2019 and 2020 performance. Odorizzi was awesome in 2019. Most players are acting like 2020 doesn't count. Replacing May, Wisler, Clippard with Colome and Robles is not ideal. I believe in Colome, but if anyone expects him to single handedly replace good innings from the three that left...

[Brock Beauchamp]

Because he's a top 25 prospect on every ranking I've ever seen and Cave and Rooker have never even made the lists. Because scouts think he's going to be a star. Because this team has a window to win in the playoffs now. 

 

I really don't think that sending him to an alternate site to play batting practice is going to do anything for him as a player. Aren't we all just sick and tired of the Twins waiting to bring up all their prospects until they're 24 or 25? All across MLB, prospects are coming up and immediately helping the team out. Are there growing pains? Sure, but half this roster still has growing pains.

 

I'm more basing the replacements off of their 2019 and 2020 performance. Odorizzi was awesome in 2019. Most players are acting like 2020 doesn't count. Replacing May, Wisler, Clippard with Colome and Robles is not ideal. I believe in Colome, but if anyone expects him to single handedly replace good innings from the three that left...

Ultimately, I think pretty much everyone believes Alex Kirilloff will have a more successful career than Brent Rooker but that doesn't mean, in the here and now, Alex is the best choice to open the season.

 

People are really down on Rooker and I don't understand why. He's a very capable bat right now and could stick on an MLB roster for several years. He's a good player, the kind that can pleasantly surprise (Brian Dozier, anyone?) or tank out of baseball in a couple of years. There's only one way to find out which it is.

 

Brent Rooker deserves a chance. He got one last year and did everything he could with it before going down with a fluke injury. I have no problem with the Twins giving him another chance, the guy hasn't done anything but succeed since being drafted. I'm excited to see what he can do for the Twins in 2021 and this decision isn't nearly as clear cut as some of you Kirilloff backers are making it out to be. 

[mikelink45]

I have been watching their games and a number of other teams (White Sox) and our lineup just does not have energy until Astudillo comes up - Arraez has had some multi hit games, but isn't always in the lineup.  Garlick and Broxton are starting to see their numbers go down and others are not coming up. 

 

When I look at the stats 19 of 36 ST batters are 200 or less AV.  Kiriloff was sent down with his BA not much different than Jake Cave and better than Buxton and Kepler by a long ways.  Sabato is still getting ABs and isn't hitting 100.  

 

Of course I am concerned and if ST stats don't count Kiriloff should not have been sent down.  ST is hard to judge so I hope that our starters are getting their slump of the year out of the way for the season.

[lwarring]

 

Rowson loss was the biggest loss in years.  I said that last year, and the playoffs showed it.  Offer the job to Dave Kiriloff.

I have thought the same thing. It's hard to know just how much impact a hitting coach has on a team, but I felt like disciplined at bats where less frequent last year for many. Its still to be seen if last year was an oddity or the start of a trend. fingers crossed.

[stringer bell]

 

 

 

When I look at the stats 19 of 36 ST batters are 200 or less AV.  Kiriloff was sent down with his BA not much different than Jake Cave and better than Buxton and Kepler by a long ways.  Sabato is still getting ABs and isn't hitting 100.  

 

Of course I am concerned and if ST stats don't count Kiriloff should not have been sent down.  ST is hard to judge so I hope that our starters are getting their slump of the year out of the way for the season.

I'll paraphrase what I wrote on a different thread--spring training is different for different players with different status. Buxton, Sanó, Kepler and Simmons are going to be in the starting lineup, if healthy. Despite a slow spring, Jake Cave will start the season with the Twins. Kirilloff had a chance to win himself a position and did not do it. It appears that Rooker did nail down a spot. Astudillo and Garlick have enhanced their chances to make the 26-man roster, as has Broxton, but Garlick and Broxton aren't in competition with Kepler and Buxton. 

 

The reality is that Polanco, Kepler, Donaldson and Sanó are on multi-year contracts and will get their playing time early in the season whether they .050 or .550 during Spring Training. That Garlick and Broxton have performed well probably means that they could be in line for a promotion if someone gets injured or if Rooker or maybe Cave don't hit when the bell rings for the start of the regular season. 

[mikelink45]

 

I'll paraphrase what I wrote on a different thread--spring training is different for different players with different status. Buxton, Sanó, Kepler and Simmons are going to be in the starting lineup, if healthy. Despite a slow spring, Jake Cave will start the season with the Twins. Kirilloff had a chance to win himself a position and did not do it. It appears that Rooker did nail down a spot. Astudillo and Garlick have enhanced their chances to make the 26-man roster, as has Broxton, but Garlick and Broxton aren't in competition with Kepler and Buxton. 

 

The reality is that Polanco, Kepler, Donaldson and Sanó are on multi-year contracts and will get their playing time early in the season whether they .050 or .550 during Spring Training. That Garlick and Broxton have performed well probably means that they could be in line for a promotion if someone gets injured or if Rooker or maybe Cave don't hit when the bell rings for the start of the regular season. 

I would take Broxton over Cave for 4th OF (Rooker starts in LF) because Broxton can play CF.

[Otto von Ballpark]

In spring training 2019, the Kansas City Royals had the best offense by far, batting .293/.376/.497 for a .873 OPS. (The next best team OPS was .835.)

 

During the following regular season, KC non-pitchers batted .247/.310/.402 for a .711 OPS, third-worst in MLB.

 

That same year, LAD, ATL, and BOS ranked 24th, 26th, and 27th in spring training team OPS, respectively. During the regular season, those same clubs ranked 3rd, 6th, and 8th in non-pitcher OPS.

[Twins33]

 

Ultimately, I think pretty much everyone believes Alex Kirilloff will have a more successful career than Brent Rooker but that doesn't mean, in the here and now, Alex is the best choice to open the season.
 
People are really down on Rooker and I don't understand why. He's a very capable bat right now and could stick on an MLB roster for several years. He's a good player, the kind that can pleasantly surprise (Brian Dozier, anyone?) or tank out of baseball in a couple of years. There's only one way to find out which it is.
 
Brent Rooker deserves a chance. He got one last year and did everything he could with it before going down with a fluke injury. I have no problem with the Twins giving him another chance, the guy hasn't done anything but succeed since being drafted. I'm excited to see what he can do for the Twins in 2021 and this decision isn't nearly as clear cut as some of you Kirilloff backers are making it out to be. 

I wish I could like this more than once because it’s everything I’ve been thinking and sometimes saying the whole offseason. 
 

Some people aren’t okay with “screwing” AK but are more than happy to do it to Rooker.  I believe Kirilloff will be the better player in the long run. I like Kirilloff better in general but that hasn’t stopped me from being on the Rooker train for quite some time. 

 

If clarification is needed screwing is in quotes because I don’t think that’s what they’re doing, AK does not seem ready based on 2019 (injury didn’t help) and spring training. 

[h2oface]

My guess is that those not hitting would rather be hitting, regardless of it being ST. If the intention is to get a hit, it is always nice to achieve it, even if playing whiffle ball, or going to the plate in ST. Good thing that these are exhibition games, and don't count. It has been ugly offense. May their intentions be achieved when the games count.

[Number3]

A week from today the stats start to actually count again and the speculation will be over. I agree that as Azviking said, Cruz and Donaldson are really the only proven reliable hitters on the roster. The rest have been streaky at best and unreliable at worst. We will soon find out about the 2021 version.

[jkcarew]

 

In spring training 2019, the Kansas City Royals had the best offense by far, batting .293/.376/.497 for a .873 OPS. (The next best team OPS was .835.)

 

During the following regular season, KC non-pitchers batted .247/.310/.402 for a .711 OPS, third-worst in MLB.

 

That same year, LAD, ATL, and BOS ranked 24th, 26th, and 27th in spring training team OPS, respectively. During the regular season, those same clubs ranked 3rd, 6th, and 8th in non-pitcher OPS.

There are 100 reasons ST stats don’t correlate. And they’re all real.

 

Still, when a player is K’ing 43% of his PA (Sano)...or pulling every single ball in play and batting .061 (Kepler)...then it MIGHT be saying something about where those players are in addressing their fundamental weaknesses. Or maybe they’re just starting slow.

[Brock Beauchamp]

There are 100 reasons ST stats don’t correlate. And they’re all real.

 

Still, when a player is K’ing 43% of his PA (Sano)...or pulling every single ball in play and batting .061 (Kepler)...then it MIGHT be saying something about where those players are in addressing their fundamental weaknesses. Or maybe they’re just starting slow.

I think lack of contact is certainly troublesome, especially given Sano’s rich history of missing the ball.

 

But in the case of Kepler, a lack of BABIP doesn’t mean anything on its own, though it’d be interesting to see what his exit velo looks like this spring.

[Twins33]

 

I think lack of contact is certainly troublesome, especially given Sano’s rich history of missing the ball.

But in the case of Kepler, a lack of BABIP doesn’t mean anything on its own, though it’d be interesting to see what his exit velo looks like this spring.

I was bored, so here's Kepler's exit velocities in the games I could find. Some ballparks don't have it.

 

02/28: 94.2, 104.7, 97.2. avg of 98.7

03/04: 90.5, 108.7, 97.8. avg of 99

03/09: 102.3

03/11: 95.5, 98.5. avg of 97

03/14: 106.2, 93.5, 101. avg of 100

03/16: 107.6, 101.9. avg of 104

03/22: 88.8, 73.2. avg of 81

[Brock Beauchamp]

I was bored, so here's Kepler's exit velocities in the games I could find. Some ballparks don't have it.

 

02/28: 94.2, 104.7, 97.2. avg of 98.7

03/04: 90.5, 108.7, 97.8. avg of 99

03/09: 102.3

03/11: 95.5, 98.5. avg of 97

03/14: 106.2, 93.5, 101. avg of 100

03/16: 107.6, 101.9. avg of 104

03/22: 88.8, 73.2. avg of 81

So you’re telling me his exit velo is not a problem.

[Twins33]

 

So you’re telling me his exit velo is not a problem.

I can see how you came to that conclusion...

[BeatTheRich]

Kepler's exit velocity today: 0

 

Three ABs, 3 KOs.

 

I like Kepler as our right fielder, but I hope he doesn't cost us any games when they start counting. A platoon might not be farfetched unless/until he starts hitting.

[Brock Beauchamp]

A platoon might not be farfetched unless/until he starts hitting.

If he doesn’t hit after 50 games that matter, sure, maybe. Probably not but maybe.

 

If he doesn’t hit after 100 games, probably. But still probably maybe.

[BeatTheRich]

 

If he doesn’t hit after 50 games that matter, sure, maybe. Probably not but maybe.

If he doesn’t hit after 100 games, probably. But still probably maybe.

 

Split the difference and call it half the season. That's an awful lot of rope or leeway to give a guy who's been a decent but not great hitter, has one total hit in three playoffs, and is currently mired in a slump that goes back to last year.

 

Again, I like Max in terms of potential, but delivery is lagging. A platoon with Rooker could make sense to start the year. If Max is still struggling, we've got two lefties waiting in Kirilloff and Larnach. Either's bat may make more sense than Max's defense. Hitting looks like our problem this year. As it was last year. Half a season of bad hitting from a key position will put us in a hole we won't climb out of now that Chicago is contending.

[drivlikejehu]

 

If he doesn’t hit after 50 games that matter, sure, maybe. Probably not but maybe.

If he doesn’t hit after 100 games, probably. But still probably maybe.

 

Maybe there's a middle ground option? Like giving him just a few extra 'off days to rest'? I'm equally or even more skeptical than you that the Twins would consistently platoon him (at which point they would also have to publicly acknowledge it). If he stayed healthy but played, say, 136 games, that could really cut into the portion of PAs he would have against lefties.

 

Playoffs (if applicable) would be tricky though.