What Does the Future Hold For Devin Smeltzer?

[Cody Pirkl]

On Friday we learned that Devin Smeltzer was already sent to the minor league side of camp while several other fringe starters and relievers remain with the big league club. What does it mean? What does his future hold?Devin Smeltzer is one of my favorite Twins. His debut in 2019 was electric, he’s interactive with the fan base, and his story is one of the best you’ll find. Smeltzer however is nearing a point where he needs to find his role at the Major League level or risk getting passed up.

 

Smeltzer’s being sent down already doesn’t necessarily mean he’s fallen out of favor with the Twins. Afterall, newly acquired Shaun Anderson was simultaneously sent down who Wes Johnson has been raving about. The issue is that it goes to show that Smeltzer is firmly behind his two competitors for a swingman/rotation role in Dobnak and Thorpe despite all three finishing 2020 in the minors. There’s little doubt in my mind that we see the soft tossing lefty back in the majors this season, but at this point it looks as if it may require at least 3 injuries for it to be in a starting role.

 

Smeltzer spent his 2020 at the MLB level as a bullpen arm which rounded out to be kind of odd. By actual performance standards, Smeltzer put up an ugly season with a 6.75 ERA. All the while, his indicators suggested he pitched better than his impressive debut in 2019 with a 4.07 FIP and 4.13 xERA. Regardless, it was hard to argue that Smeltzer was a necessity in the bullpen by years end with left handers Caleb Thielbar and Taylor Rogers available.

 

All of this leaves Smeltzer in a difficult spot. It’s been made clear that his spot on the depth chart lies behind much if not all of his competition in the rotation as well as almost all of his competition in the bullpen. Meanwhile the young group of arms in the Twins system continues to creep closer to the Major League Level. Where can Smeltzer go from here?

 

At this point it’s difficult to imagine Smeltzer settling into a rotation role. Pairing the Twins current and upcoming rotation options with Smeltzer’s sub 90 mph fastball just doesn’t make him an obvious fit. While there’s a realistic chance he could make a spot start or two this year, I’m hoping to see the Twins make a dedicated effort to integrate Smeltzer into a bullpen role even without an immediate spot to fill.

 

Smeltzer does exactly what a soft tossing lefty should do by leading his pitch mix with a changeup to equalize right handed hitters that may be sitting on his fastball. With a .310 slugging allowed on the pitch paired with a 26% whiff rate he has the #1 tool to make it in short stints as more than just a lefty specialist.

 

Unlike most lefties, Smeltzer’s biggest enemy in his career has been left handed hitters so far. This led to him developing a slider which he threw almost 17% of the time last season. He got unlucky but the 27% whiff rate is encouraging for his first season featuring the pitch. Going into 2021 Smeltzer may just have a strong go to option for hitters on each side of the plate.

 

If Smeltzer’s performance on his offspeed pitches holds, his fastball would be the final piece to the puzzle, as opponents have slugged around .550 against the pitch in his career. Luckily the Twins have shown an affinity for such a problem, as they often target pitchers with a similar profile and have shown success in fixing it.

 

Many fans grew underwhelmed by Smeltzer by the end of 2020, but he’s likely to get at least a few shots in 2021. Target Field may not be on their feet for a 100 mph fastball at any point for the left hander, but Devin Smeltzer’s development so far along with his being left handed could mean that his best days are still ahead of him in a Twins uniform.

 

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[Dman]

Might not happen until the season is over but I think the Twins might need to trade him.  The Twins are likely going to need to find room for Josh Windor, Cole Sands, Blaine Enlow, Chris Vallimont, and maybe Luis Rijo to save them from the rule V draft.  They also might want to add Canterino early depending on how he does this year as well.  The 40 man is about to get very tight and as you mentioned I think Smeltzer would be the odd man out.

 

I think Devin can be a solid back end starter at the MLB level but he is about to be buried on the Twins roster so IMO a move would give him more opportunities. A chance to shine elsewhere.

 

While they could use him out of the pen it seems like they will have better options to use there as well.  I don't see him on the team past this year whether by DFA or trade depending on how he performs.  I have 4 players that I think will be gone next year they are Gordon because they need to add Lewis, Cave because they need to add Larnach, Thielbar because they need to add several young pitchers and Smeltzer for the same reason.

 

He can still be valuable for the team this year depending on injuries but I am pretty certain this is his last year here.

[stringer bell]

It's a long season and certainly the Twins will undoubtedly use many pitchers, probably including Smeltzer. I just don't think Smeltzer is going to be anything more than marginal. 

 

I think Smeltzer's story is great, but the tools are pretty limited. He doesn't have much very much margin for error.

[mikelink45]

I hear Pittsburgh could use some help and we have our old Bench coach there.  Maybe a little gift to the Pirates.  I liked Smeltzer's story when he came up, but a good story can't replace a good arm.  Time to move on - the inventory of pitchers coming soon in Dman's post makes it pretty clear. 

[Richard Swerdlick]

Time to learn how to throw a knuckleball..

[Doctor Gast]

I agree with the gang. I like Smeltzer but younger arms are going to past. He could still be valuable to a different team so pull the trigger.

[saviking]

Smeltzer made me / makes me cringe every time he goes to the mound. He has a great story but is a flash in the pan. Got a few good meals out of him when he first came up and then nothing. Worse than nothing.

 

I see no way he is in the Twins future but I seriously doubt we could get much of anything in a trade. Pitchers like Smeltzer are a dime a dozen in the minors ..

 

Smeltzer has NO dominate pitches. He picks at the plate when he doesn't hit his exact spoke they tag him. He's basically just a finiss pitcher  

 

Time to just release him and let him try to find a home somewhere else. 

[Nine of twelve]

The short answer: mostly AAA with occasional very short stints in the majors.

[Seth Stohs]

Smeltzer is an MLB pitcher. His ceiling, of course is a #4/5 starter and likely he fills the role of long reliever. As a lefty, he may have some potential in a one-inning type of role too. 

 

How he fits with the Twins right now is really the question. There are several MLB teams that he'd be their #4 starter opening day. 

[puckstopper1]

 

Smeltzer is an MLB pitcher. His ceiling, of course is a #4/5 starter and likely he fills the role of long reliever. As a lefty, he may have some potential in a one-inning type of role too. 

 

How he fits with the Twins right now is really the question. There are several MLB teams that he'd be their #4 starter opening day. 

 

If this is truly the case, Seth, I'd say trade him ASAP for some lottery picks.

[mikelink45]

 

Smeltzer is an MLB pitcher. His ceiling, of course is a #4/5 starter and likely he fills the role of long reliever. As a lefty, he may have some potential in a one-inning type of role too. 

 

How he fits with the Twins right now is really the question. There are several MLB teams that he'd be their #4 starter opening day. 

You are too kind and obviously root for the minor leaguers and those who have struggled to get to the top.  Way to go.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Smeltzer spent his 2020 at the MLB level as a bullpen arm which rounded out to be kind of odd. By actual performance standards, Smeltzer put up an ugly season with a 6.75 ERA. All the while, his indicators suggested he pitched better than his impressive debut in 2019 with a 4.07 FIP and 4.13 xERA.

FWIW, due to the fully unbalanced schedule, evidence suggests the Twins disproportionately faced very poor offenses in 2020. B-Ref thinks an average pitcher, in Smeltzer's spot, should have had a 3.91 RA9. So Smeltzer's decent FIP was likely still worse than average.

 

Also, as strikeouts continue to skyrocket (the K rate was 24.9% in the central divisions last year), I wonder if it is easier for pitchers to post better FIPs.

[Dodecahedron]

Smeltzer can pitch, but he was always the #6/#7 in training camp this year. It's on him to change the script for next year.

 

Having a terrible spring did not help.

[Vanimal46]

I’ve been banging the drum that him or Thorpe should be another LH option in the bullpen. I think that will be his best bet to make an MLB impact this year and future years.

[DocBauer]

Guys in the high 80's who mix it up and change speeds and hit their spots can start. I think he's a #5. I also think he's behind a couple guys right now and is best as a middle/swing guy.

[beetlebum71]

His average FB velocity last year was 87.7.  That is tough to get by with.  Kyle Hendricks has managed to succeed with almost identical velo, but he uses elite command to mitigate it.  He also throws his 4-seamer significantly less often than Devin does.