How the Twins' Shifting Tendencies Will Change in 2021

[Matthew Trueblood]

When it comes to infield shifts, teams aren’t simply all-in or out on the idea. Several teams shift more than average against certain hitters, but less than average against others. Look for the Twins to join that group in 2021.In 2020, the Miami Marlins shifted almost 42 percent of the time against right-handed batters, the highest frequency in the majors. Against lefties, however, only four teams shifted less often than Don Mattingly’s Fish. They were the only team in baseball who shifted more often against righties than against lefties, in absolute terms.

 

Meanwhile, the Giants, Reds, and Mariners all shifted less than 11 percent of the time against right-handed batters, but over 64 percent of the time against lefties. They were clustered near the bottom of the league in terms of shifts against half of all hitters, but just as close to the top of the league against the other half.

 

The Twins shifted seventh-most in baseball in 2020. They deployed more shifts against lefties (55 percent of the time) than against righties (31.6 percent), but in relative terms, that meant that they leaned toward righties. They were seventh in the league in shifting on righties, but 11th against lefties.

 

That was in a season in which Josh Donaldson was often unavailable. This winter, they went out and added Andrelton Simmons as Donaldson’s partner on the left side of the infield. Meanwhile, whatever hopes the team harbored for the players they have shoved across to the right side of the diamond, Miguel Sano and Jorge Polanco do not look like a strong pairing.

 

Expect the Twins to become much more similar to the Giants, Reds, and Mariners in 2021, in terms of defensive positioning. They might still not reach those extremes, but one reason for building as strong a left side as Simmons and Donaldson should be is to reduce the need to shift against righties. Against lefties, on the other hand, the availability of Simmons only increases the team’s incentive to shift. Putting a player with his skills on the side of the diamond where the ball is most likely to be hit is a no-brainer.

 

Many things go into the process of mapping defensive alignments and strategies. It would be too simplistic to say that the Twins will stop shifting against right-handers because of their Fielding Bible Award-caliber shortstop and third baseman, and we can’t assume they’ll dramatically increase their rate of shifts against lefties, either. However, the direction in which both of those numbers are likely to move seems clear, and they should combine to move another number. Expect the Twins to turn more of their ground balls into outs in 2021, after they fell short of their own goals in that area in both 2019 and 2020.

 

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[strumdatjaguar]

My favorite play in baseball is the left-handed batter bunting to an empty third base away from the shift. Take the gift!

[Nine of twelve]

 

My favorite play in baseball is the left-handed batter bunting to an empty third base away from the shift. Take the gift!

I will say that I have heard and/or read that bunting a major-league pitch is not as easy as many of us assume. Nevertheless it is a learnable skill and this is definitely an underused play.

[Seth Stohs]

When the Twins signed Andrelton Simmons, I asked him for his thoughts on shifting. He responded: 

 

 

For me, growing up before the shift became a big thing, I always went on what I saw. It’s an educated decision on what you feel like is gonna happen, where the ball is gonna be hit. As more data was put into figuring out where guys are gonna hit baseballs, I always enjoy that input on positioning. Like, what information do you have on this guy, on where he hits the ball. It’s always a good thing to know it. Sometimes I enjoy when I can have a discussion, if it’s something like I don’t feel like this guy is gonna hit the ball here, in certain situations this guy might try to ... there’s maybe sometimes my own way of processing things. I like to discuss, with either the manager or the defensive coordinator, and try to understand why, and share my own input. Try to come up with the best decision for where to position. I like the idea of shifting, but I always like to understand how and why.

 

Rocco was then asked about what Simmons brings to the team, and said: 

 

 

 

We talk about the defense and everything that Andrelton brings in the middle of the field at shortstop. But I heard up talk about some of the instinctual things he does in the field.
We are talking about honestly one of the most cerebral ballplayers in the game and I think there’s a ton he’s going to be able to bring to the table and both lead by example but also probably show us a few things too. Myself included. I’m looking forward to watching him go out there, not just during the games, but even before the games and all the conversations that go along with it.

 

[Linus]

I don’t agree with the negative comment on Polanco. I didn’t like him at SS but he could be a really good second baseman.

[Trov]

 

My favorite play in baseball is the left-handed batter bunting to an empty third base away from the shift. Take the gift!

It is situational though.  First, unless the person practices it, it will be unlikely the player will just do it.  But, lets assume the player can do it whenever they want.  You would not want them to do it with runner on second and two outs.  Why you may ask? Well the run will not score and all you did is put the onus on someone else to get the hit to score the run.  How about with 2 outs and down by 1 in 9th and it is a Jim Thome or Big Papi type?  Of course you will not want them to bunt for a hit in that spot.  You want them to swing for fence like they get paid for.  

 

If it is to lead off an inning I have no issue taking a base hit if you can get it.  But teams will tend to play the 3b in some to take it away until there are 2 strikes.  Now that is where I wish guys would practice bunt more.  If you strike out a ton and fall behind say 0-2 or 1-2, why not bunt it.  You just have to get past the pitcher and does not really need to be that close to foul line.  

 

Point is, pay attention to the situation and react to it, not just bunt for hit because you can.  

[strumdatjaguar]

In the situation with the man on second. I suspect a fast runner could take off with the pitch and score on that lefties bunt to the uncovered third base. Actually, why wouldn’t the guy on second just steal third (even with two outs) if nobody is covering third. For that reason, I suspect it would not happen.