Vikings Offseason

[TheLeviathan]

It's hard for me to predict win totals when our most important position is such a wild-card. I'm still very down on Ponder, but he certainly showed some positives from time to time last year. If he's the "I can't throw for 100 yards" guy we saw for a few stretches last year, it won't matter what the schedule is.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm willing to give Ponder one more year to show what he has. Hardest position in all of sports, and that first year there was no training camp. Plus, that is one of the worst WR corps ever.....but he has to show a lot more this year to keep his job, imo. I really don't know what to expect. I'm just as worried about the D, though. Not one CB is a guy you can trust. The DL didn't get as much pressure last year, and I can't even name the 3rd LBer right now.

[Joe]

Well, that's your opinion Dave, but in 2011 there was a lot of talk about him being a 2012 top ten pick. There is a lot of talent there, I'd love to gamble on that in the third.

 

Seeing a lot of steam now on Honey Badger going in the back end of the first round!

[TheLeviathan]

I will let Dave chew on that but if true - too rich for my blood.

[biggentleben]

I will let Dave chew on that but if true - too rich for my blood.

 

Exactly. Third is a good spot for a talent-heavy, character-questionable type. Going early tends to blow up a lot. The problem is that people remember the ones that excel (Randy Moss, et al).

[DaveW]

Seeing a lot of steam now on Honey Badger going in the back end of the first round!

Where????

[diehardtwinsfan]

I've gotten the impression that honey badger was more a 3rd rounder due to the question marks... I'd certainly consider blowing the second round or third rounder on the guy... He has talent.

 

The real question is what will Spielman do with this his picks. Something tells me there will be a trade or two on Friday.

[TheLeviathan]

I hope if he's trading it's up to the second and not up in the first. I very much like our chances of grabbing two huge cogs for this team in the first round already.

[DaveW]

I hope if he's trading it's up to the second and not up in the first. I very much like our chances of grabbing two huge cogs for this team in the first round already.

From the sounds of the "experts" it won't take as much this year to move up. If the Vikes can package their first round pick and a third round to move up high enough to draft Austin, I think they have to seriously consider it. Jennings+Austin is a pretty nice start to a WR corp to be honest.

 

I'm not a huge Te'o fan, but if you end up with him at 25 I think he could be a nice steal.

 

Let's be honest, with the way "hype, ESPN, etc" works, if he has even a decent National Championship game and the whole fake girlfriend thing doesn't come out, we are prob looking at a guy who goes in the top 5 possibly or top 10 for sure.

 

So my ideal draft:

 

Trade up to get Austin (true gamechanger)

draft Teo (or some other LB)

 

and then spend the 2nd round pick on a CB.

 

And find a OG somewhere in the 4th round (or trade up to the 3rd round again to grab one)

 

Load up on LB, CB, WR, CB the rest of the draft.

 

Also if Landry Jones is sitting around in the 4th round, snatch him up.

[Mike Sixel]

I predict they deal one of the picks to buffalo or the Jets to move up to take a QB. The Vikes get their 2nd this year, and 2nd and 5th next year.

 

The other pick will be used on defense.

[Kobs]

Let's be honest, with the way "hype, ESPN, etc" works, if he has even a decent National Championship game and the whole fake girlfriend thing doesn't come out, we are prob looking at a guy who goes in the top 5 possibly or top 10 for sure.

 

Not as a middle linebacker who isn't particularly fast. It is a situational position at this point. You aren't drafting a guy you hope to be a great nickel cornerback in the top ten.

[Westgaard66]

Vikes D just got beefed up....a big ass D tackle and a big Corner.

 

 

They gonna target a WR in round 2 or maybe Te'o keeps falling.

[TheLeviathan]

Yeah, love those two picks. Instantly make the defense even better.

[B Richard]

Great picks- looked like we traded with the Pats for the 29th pick!

[DaveW]

That first round was ****ing perfect!!!!

[DaveW]

We still have a huge hole at LB though, hopefully we can find one, but so far, we got two insane talents at DT/WR who could honestly become the Warren Sapp/Randy Moss of this draft, the CB we got is solid as well, clearly an upgrade.

 

I'd argue if we get to the mid to late part of the 2nd round we should trade up and grab Te'o as well. Or another LB.

 

Either way, I give the Vikes an A+ thus far, they have done the best on "day one" by far.

[Westgaard66]

Could be happier with how aggressive the Vikes were yesterday.

 

Yes the Vikes are thin at LB, but Urlacher is still out there :-)

[TheLeviathan]

It was a steep price to pay but if you love the guy (and they must have) then I'm excited to see what he can do. I'm just glad it wasn't Teo!

[DaveW]

It was a steep price to pay but if you love the guy (and they must have) then I'm excited to see what he can do. I'm just glad it wasn't Teo!

 

According to the "draft points thing" it was a pretty even trade.

 

I would have preferred to hold onto the 3rd just so we had a pick tonight... but honestly a laterish 3rd round pick doesn't have a ton of value.

 

Frankly, I hope we can somehow trade Toby and a 5th or 6th tonight for a 3rd round pick.

[kab21]

According to the "draft points thing" it was a pretty even trade.

 

I would have preferred to hold onto the 3rd just so we had a pick tonight... but honestly a laterish 3rd round pick doesn't have a ton of value.

 

Frankly, I hope we can somehow trade Toby and a 5th or 6th tonight for a 3rd round pick.

 

The spin machine just keeps going... It was good to get a WR that they apparently like since that is an essential need for the Vikings.

 

Bill Barnwell on day one of the NFL draft - Grantland

 

Minnesota acquires the 29th overall pick from New England for the 52nd, 83rd, 102nd, and 229th picks.

Quantitative winner: New England (59.5 percent more in return)

Real-life winner: New England

 

 

Note the dramatic gulf between what Stuart's model thought of the difference in value across the first four trades and what it thought of this one. The Patriots, simply put, took the Vikings to the cleaners. It's incredible that Bill Belichick seems to pull this off every year, but it's even more impressive in this draft. Chase's model estimates, historically, that the 29th overall pick has delivered about 40 percent more value than the 52nd overall pick during their first five seasons in the league. That's really not that much, and in a flat draft like this year's, it's undoubtedly a smaller figure, probably closer to 10 percent or so. For that tiny chance of getting a better player, the Vikings gave up third- and fourth-round picks that could end up producing valuable contributors. In 2007, the 83rd pick delivered Charles Johnson, who became a double-digit pass rusher and one of the highest-paid players in football. The 102nd pick that year was Brian Robison, who himself has 30 sacks over six years in the league. The Patriots aren't getting worthless picks here.

 

 

The Vikings made this move to get Cordarrelle Patterson, which seems shortsighted considering the bevy of second-tier wideouts still left on the market. They could have waited through the end of the first round and the top of the second round, where few teams need wideouts, before pouncing in the middle of the second round. That might only have cost them a fifth-round pick or so. In any case, it took what had been an excellent Vikings draft and ruined their night. And while it might not have been the most exciting return for Patriots fans, it was very clearly the right move to make.

 

[DaveW]

Wow, a website created by the biggest Boston homer of them all said the Patriots won that trade? Color me ****ing shocked.

 

"it ruined their night" Give me a break, what a clown. I also like how he takes the stance that "Hey this guy may be a bust" and "Oh their have been good players picked in the 3rd round in the past!"

 

Genius, pure genius.

[Mike Sixel]

Bill is one of the best writers on the internet, and this has NOTHING to do with Boston. Very unbiased writer, very insightful and intelligent.

[biggentleben]

One of the points I actually agree with is that with three first round contracts, moving the picks they did does help them this year to keep money, and they did avoid the one thing the Patriots are notorious for: give us less of a pick this year (keep the 2nd), and we'll just take your 1st next year.

[Badsmerf]

Don't have any problem with this trade. If they believe in this guy he is much more valuable than 4 replacement level players. You can't predict guys in late rounds becoming great players, otherwise they would get drafted earlier. Impact players are what win in this league. From this draft, it appears to me the Vikings upgraded big time. Yes, they need a LB still, but adding depth at CB and D-Line will help mask LB deficiencies. Great strategy IMO.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not sure 3rd and 4th rounders are "late rounds". I love the roll of the dice, I just worry about the price, and I don't share their belief they are really a 10-6 team year after year. Though, I love all three players as prospects. It's just a risk/reward issue for me. They should have gotten 3 starters from teh first three picks they had, plus 2-3 contributors. Now they ahve three starters, and will have difficulty getting a lot more contribution.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm just thrilled we didn't mortgage all that for Teo.....I think my brain would have exploded. Love the contract angle and the talent they added. That fourth rounder is going to be really interesting.

[drjim]

I appreciate Barnwell's point but I don't necessarily buy it. The Pats may have gotten more total value but it is spread over four roster spots instead of one. I think teams win with high quality guys instead of depth (of course ideally you want both). It is beneficial to consolidate as much value as possible in the one roster spot and try to fill in depth through other avenues. Vikes also had extra picks to work with and adequate depth already, it seems an acceptable risk to turn that into a better player.

 

I don't pretend to know much about the individual players involved but if the Vikes had the wr as one of the last guys on the impact player tier I would think that is worthwhile to sacrifice depth for no matter what some draft value point system might say.

[Jocko87]

One of the points I actually agree with is that with three first round contracts, moving the picks they did does help them this year to keep money, and they did avoid the one thing the Patriots are notorious for: give us less of a pick this year (keep the 2nd), and we'll just take your 1st next year.

 

 

It's not like they are out of picks either. They weren't going to draft and pay 11 players that make the roster so the move makes sense to me. I call Floyd the first rounder, Rhodes the second and Patterson the 3rd. If those first three rounds don't delight people I dunno what to tell them. Taking on more first round money doesn't bother me, as long as it isn't an every year thing.

 

I'm damn happy, now they can go gold mining on Saturday.

[kab21]

There are really two things at work here and I am not against the trade. The first is that they gave up a lot of value to move up. I'm not sure that should even be debated. The second is that draft pick value is not equal to player value. It's likely that Patterson is ranked significantly higher than 29th on their draft board. I think it's pretty likely that the Vikings would have picked Patterson earlier if Floyd and Rhodes hadn't slid in the draft.

 

A third factor is that it was pretty risky that a starting WR would have been available at #52 and that was a critical need for the Vikings to do anything this year.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I tend to think they gave up a bit too much for this pick, but I'm not crying too much over it given that there was some question that they weren't going to use all their picks anyways due to cap issues... Getting rid of a few picks to get the guy you want, even if you are overpaying a bit isn't necessarily bad in this situation... What we don't know also plays into this:

 

1) How much value did the Vikings place on this supposed mid round depth in this draft? It's possible that they had given first rounds grades to all 3 of those guys and weren't terribly high on everyone else.

 

2) Could they have gotten better value by not trading up? They could have picked up Honey Badger in the second round and traded back into the second round for much less to get another a WR. How much more valuable was Patterson than who they could have picked up? Doing this would have let them play far more nickel defense, which would have minimized their need for a MLB.

 

That said, Spielman likes to make his splash.. It certainly grabs headlines and I have to admit that getting 3 guys that will start and likely be impact players isn't bad. I'm not going to cry too much about it. We'll know for sure how this turns out in a few years.