Max Kepler Should Be the Twins' Cleanup Hitter

[Matthew Trueblood]

The Twins have been fairly comfortable slotting Max Kepler in as their leadoff man over the past two seasons. It’s tempting to bat him third, to split up righties Josh Donaldson and Nelson Cruz. The best spot for him, though, is fourth in the order.As we’ve already discussed this spring, Kepler has a persistently lousy batting average on balls in play. That sets a surprisingly low ceiling on his overall on-base percentage, the crucial statistic in establishing a player’s credentials for batting leadoff. Moreover, as we’ve also recently explored, Kepler’s optimal approach is an aggressive, attacking one. That’s modestly in conflict with batting leadoff, not because it leads to fewer pitches seen to soften the ground for subsequent hitters, but because it, too, tends to dampen OBP, in exchange for a higher slugging average.

 

However, Kepler does a lot of other things very well. He hits for solid power. He also maintains a low strikeout rate, and it’s not because of his aggressiveness early in counts. Rather, Kepler runs a very high contact rate for a fly-ball pull hitter, and (within the confines of his approach) shows good situational awareness.

 

In my article yesterday advocating for Luis Arraez batting first on a regular basis, I referred to the research on batting order presented in The Book, from 2007. Let me present another minor finding mentioned in that same chapter. “On the one hand, you have the cleanup hitter, for whom the run value of the strikeout is .005 runs more costly than other types of outs,” the authors wrote. “[T]he preferred outs for the cleanup hitter are ‘moving runners over’ outs. … The cleanup hitter has more runners in scoring position, and so if he is to make an out, we don’t want him to strike out.”

 

You’ll note, of course, that the magnitude of that difference is minute. For every 1,000 outs a batter makes, turning them from strikeouts to productive outs would create about five extra runs. Because of this, the authors go on to recommend that a team leave strikeout vulnerability out of their decision-making process when building a lineup.

 

However, that assumes typical, non-extreme hitters filling the lineup card. The Twins are a special case, with non-typical, extreme hitters. Arraez, with his extraordinary contact skills, is one example. Kepler, who runs such a low BABIP but strikes out so rarely and has good extra-base thump, is another. Since the start of 2019, Kepler has grounded into a double play in only 5.0 percent of his opportunities to do so. The league-average rate is just under 11 percent. Kepler has brought runners home from third base with less than two outs in 62.1 percent of his opportunities; the league-average rate is just over 50 percent. With a runner on second and nobody out, Kepler has moved the runner over 57.1 percent of the time; the average rate is under 53 percent.

 

Even his bad outcomes, then, can be helpful to the team if Kepler is batting fourth. Meanwhile, quite often, he will drive those runners home himself. He’s driven home 18.3 percent of all baserunners on base at the start of his plate appearances over the past two seasons; the league rate is just over 14 percent. Good power and good (but limited) on-base skills make him a clear fit for the top portion of the order, but a poor one (given the other available options, especially Arraez) for the leadoff spot itself.

 

With the three-batter minimum in place, it’s easy to argue for using Kepler to split up Donaldson and Cruz, whom I would bat second and third, respectively. A scenario in which a team brings in a tough righty to face those two in succession comes easily to mind. To be sure, there will be times when righties are brought in to try to escape an inning against those two hitters, only to have a lefty come out to begin the next frame against Kepler. On the other hand, Donaldson has very small career platoon splits, and has even been better against righties over the last two years. Further, putting Kepler third in the order would allow a team (in theory) to bring in a lefty to pitch to both Arraez and Kepler, sandwiching only Donaldson, and then to go to a righty to go after Cruz and either Miguel Sanó or Mitch Garver.

 

On balance, Kepler belongs in the fourth spot. When the playoffs come and the Twins need to deploy their ‘A’ lineup, the highest form of it will include Arraez, Donaldson, Cruz, and Kepler in the first four positions.

 

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[Danchat]

100% agree, this makes a lot more sense than leading off with him.

[wsnydes]

He may not be my first choice there on a daily basis, but it makes a lot more sense than hitting him first.

[DocBauer]

100% agree with this and have been arguing for it even without all the data points presented.

 

Arrraez and Polanco are my choices to bat #1 for all the reasons we already know and have discussed.

 

I've struggled with the 5 spot being Sano or Garver with the other probably hitting 7th whenever Kirilloff takes over LF for good.

 

Some good debate about how to stack Buxton and Simmons.

 

And yes, the lineups will always be fluid so everyone rests and plays and Arraez won't be in the lineup every day. But the basic stacking of the lineup just seems so obvious to me.

[mikelink45]

I agree with the current lineup, but expect Kiriloff and Larnach to replace him soon and that will be better for all outcomes. 

[yeahyabetcha]

Against a righty, 4th or 5th is ok. Against as lefty not as good.

[Major League Ready]

How about putting him between Cruz and Donaldson?

[jun]

I think Kepler should bat 6th or 7th for now.

[rv78]

With the addition of Simmons to the lineup major changes need to be made. Kepler is the big one. Batting him 4th IMO is not the place. With Arraez or Polanco leading off I'd like to see Simmons bat 2nd. Against lefties, bat Cruz 3rd, Donaldson 4th, Garver 5th, Kepler 6th, Sano 7th, Buck and Kirolloff 8 and 9. Against righties, switch Garver and Kepler and switch Buck and Kirolloff. 

[joemama]

Interesting read, but with the way Baldelli likes to rest players and the depth options in Arraez, Cave, and Jeffers, this lineup is going to have as many combinations as a Rubik's cube.

[puckstopper1]

In reading all of the comments, the Twins *REALLY* need a bounce-back year from Garver at the plate. 

 

That would give Rocco much more flexibility.

 

And it would likely mean having Sano and his probable 40% WIFF Rate batting no higher than 7th against RHP and 6th against LHP.

[MNT1996]

I'd go with:

 

1. Polanco

2. Donaldson

3. Cruz

4. Buxton

5. Sano

6. Garver / Jeffers

7. Kepler 

8. Rooker / Garlick

9. Simmons

 

If the Twins go down 1-2-3 in the first inning, I'd rather have Buxton lead off the next inning. If he gets on that creates a lot of havoc for the opposing team, plus he also brings the same power threat Max has. He just needs to work on laying off some bad pitches.