Twins 2021 Position Analysis: Right Field

[Nick Nelson]

Max Kepler is a fantastic defensive right fielder who, by and large, has hit more like a center fielder.

 

As long as Byron Buxton roams center, Kepler's value to the Twins is largely predicated on his ability to produce at the plate. The 28-year-old unlocked something in 2019 – can he find it again?Projected Starter: Max Kepler

Likely Backup: Jake Cave

 

Depth: Brent Rooker, Kyle Garlick

Prospects: Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner

 

THE GOOD

 

Max Kepler is a pristine athlete who does basically everything well, from a skills standpoint.

 

He's very fast, routinely ranking around the league's 75th percentile in sprint speed. Combine that with his strong outfield instincts and technique, and you've got one of the game's top-rated defenders in right.

 

 

Since 2019, FanGraphs pegs Kepler as the fourth-most valuable defensive right fielder in baseball, trailing only Mookie Betts, Aaron Judge, and Cody Bellinger. He might not have the arm strength of some others, but Kepler is as good as they come at tracking down flies.

 

Download attachment: keplerstatcast2020.png

At the plate, Kepler is a smart and disciplined hitter who consistently takes good at-bats. Year after year, he's been well above average when it comes to drawing walks, limiting strikeouts, and making contact when swinging. As you can see in the Statcast chart above, this was all true in 2020.

 

The power hasn't been as reliable, but Kepler certainly showed what he's capable of in 2019, when he slugged .519 and swatted 36 home runs. If he can move back in that direction this year, while continuing to excel defensively, he'll be a rock-solid asset and perhaps even an All-Star in right.

 

 

Meanwhile, if Kepler gets hurt, or is needed in center field, the Twins are well equipped to fill his RF vacancy. Alex Kirilloff could slide over to his more natural outfield position, opening up left for one of many other candidates. Or Trevor Larnach, who sure seems ready to make an impact, could step in.

 

The Twins' youth movement sets them up well for a Kepler-related pivot, and if the kids aren't quite ready, they've got plenty of appeling interim options on hand between Jake Cave, Brent Rooker, Kyle Garlick, Keon Broxton, and the like.

 

THE BAD

 

Two years ago, Kepler seemingly turned a long-awaited corner offensively. He hadn't previously been a bad hitter, per se, but to be a standout in right field, greatness is the standard. It's one he has failed to reach in every season except that 2019 breakout as leadoff man for the Bomba Squad.

 

The 2020 campaign, which started so promisingly with back-to-back home runs against White Sox ace Lucas Giolito in the opener, represented a troubling backstep for Kep.

 

After hitting those two solo shots on Opening Day, Kepler slugged just .404, with seven homers and nine doubles in 47 contests. For the season, his batting average sagged to .228, and he was futile against southpaws, slashing .128/.208/.170 in 53 PA.

 

Despite his good plate approach and high contact rates, Kepler has generally struggled to find open grass. His BABIP over the past three years is the worst in baseball, and that owes to a variety of factors: predictable hitting profile, defensive shifts, and plain old bad luck among them. Matthew Trueblood wrote here recently about Kepler's primary obstacle, and how he can overcome it.

 

"It’s pretty clear that Kepler needs to make adjustments at the plate," Matthew argues. "He’s evolved impressively over the course of his big-league career, but his inability to generate hard contact against certain pitches or to certain parts of the park (plus the inherent disadvantage of being a lefty pull hitter, in the modern game) is putting a cap on his potential production."

 

Kepler made real inroads against these weaknesses in 2019, but the reemergence of familiar flaws leaves his outlook in doubt. If he can't pump up the offensive production this year, he'll feel pressure from big bats rising up underneath.

 

THE BOTTOM LINE

 

Kepler's future with the Twins is in flux. They've got high-caliber corner bats knocking on the door to the majors (with Kirilloff probably already stepping through). Kepler remains locked under contract for three more years, but if he keeps hitting like a center fielder, you have to wonder if the Twins will trade him to another team that might find him more valuable there – or part with Byron Buxton and move Kepler to center themselves.

 

For now, right field is his. So they'll hope he can recapture the outstanding offense of 2019, when he was a legitimate force. At 28, we'll see if he can find it again.

 

READ OTHER 2021 POSITION ANALYSIS ARTICLES

• Catcher
• First Base
• Second Base
• Third Base
• Shortstop
• Left Field
• Center Field

 

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[h2oface]

I always hate it when I see something like "who, by and large, has hit more like a center fielder", inferring, that center fielders aren't even expected to hit, and it is fine if they don't. When I think of center fielders, I think of Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, Ken Griffey Jr, Mike Trout, Duke Snider, Joe Dimaggio.......... I could go on and on. Center fielders should hit, too.

[cHawk]

Well, what kind of player is Kepler? Is he the guy we saw in 2019? Is he the guy we saw in every other season in his career? Maybe somewhere in between? If Kepler is average again at the plate, maybe platoon the position (w/Rooker)?

[Dman]

I hate to say this but I prefer Buxtons bat to Keplers right now.  He hasn't hit well in so long he is pretty much an automatic out.  His Spring has been pathetic.  He has hit a few balls hard but always, always pull side right where they are playing him.  If he continues to be this bad I would try to find a way to platoon him to take some of the pain out his hit tool.

[arby58]

 

I always hate it when I see something like "who, by and large, has hit more like a center fielder", inferring, that center fielders aren't even expected to hit, and it is fine if they don't. When I think of center fielders, I think of Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, Ken Griffey Jr, Mike Trout, Duke Snider, Joe Dimaggio.......... I could go on and on. Center fielders should hit, too.

Sure, in a perfect world, but the point is still valid - you're more likely to accept less offensive performance from a center fielder. Paul Blair is the epitome of this - he had a career OPS of .684, but his defense was other world stuff. In 1974, he finished 13th in MVP balloting with an OPS of .730.

[MNT1996]

I'm very bearish on Kepler. I believe 2019 was an outlier year in terms of offensive production really all across the league, and I think we'll see Max continue to put up numbers similar to 2016-2018, where he hit around .230 with an OPS+ around 95.

 

What continues to puzzle me is Rocco's persistent with putting Kepler as leadoff. A career .237 hitter should not be leading off. However I think that Rocco will finally come to his senses and put either Polanco or Arraez in the 1 spot. Also if Kepler's spring struggles continue into the regular season, and if the Twins care about putting the best team possible on the field, I think Garlick or a prospect should be given a chance in right field. 

[mike8791]

I have always thought of Kepler as one of those over-hyped Twin prospects who has never really lived up to his "potential", with the single exception of 2019.  He is a low BA guy with some pop.  My doubts have been reenforced with this spring's performance where he is batting .087.  Yes, its only spring training but his lack of improvement is troubling.

 

The Twins have two rookie OFs in Kirillof and Larnach who are almost ready.  Is it unreasonable to look at Kepler as a valuable trade piece?  Probably not now, or not even this year, but the Twins should be more proactive in looking to trade players like Kepler, Sano, Garver who are streaky hitters and outside of maybe one year, have never performed at the high, consistent level hoped for.  This is a critical year for these players and if they don'y rebound, a smart FO should consider alternatives.

[gunnarthor]

I wouldn't be surprised if our OF by the end of the year was mostly Kiriloff, Buxton, and Larnich. The good news is, we have some pretty good depth so we should be good in the OF.

[mikelink45]

I hate to join the chorus, but Kepler is not my favorite outfielder.  I agree with the fact that CFs are not bad hitters - I think a guy out west  named Trout puts that to rest. This is just a way of saying he isn't as bad as we think he is, but I hate seeing him lead off, I just have not seen the progress I had expected.  Let's hope he makes you look good and all us commenters look bad - any time a Twin does better than I expect is good.

 

But Kepler just does not give me confidence.   

[ashbury]

I always hate it when I see something like "who, by and large, has hit more like a center fielder", inferring, that center fielders aren't even expected to hit, and it is fine if they don't. When I think of center fielders, I think of Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, Ken Griffey Jr, Mike Trout, Duke Snider, Joe Dimaggio.......... I could go on and on. Center fielders should hit, too.

Hall of Fame. Inner Circle at that, for most of those you named.

 

I dunno, a CFer can play for my team, and yet not reach quite that lofty standard. In CF I'll trade some of the bat for some more of the glove.

 

In RF, I'll trade a little bit of bat for a whole lot of glove, I guess. Kepler's 2020 bat was getting close to too much of a downgrade.

[ScrapTheNickname]

Every player on a great doesn't need to be great. A stellar defender in right field is a valuable asset. If Kepler is a 2 WAR player this year (and if the Twins are a great team), then play him. But please, please, please bat him low in the lineup! (And go ahead and platoon him if necessary).

[gunnarthor]

 

Every player on a great doesn't need to be great. A stellar defender in right field is a valuable asset. If Kepler is a 2 WAR player this year (and if the Twins are a great team), then play him. But please, please, please bat him low in the lineup! (And go ahead and platoon him if necessary).

I don't necessarily disagree with this but this is basically what Kepler was - a 2 WAR player - when he's hitting at a 95 OPS+ clip. Right now, I think we have enough options where we can say that's not good enough and move on because, as a system, our corner OF floor is very high. Larnich, Rooker, Cave can all probably combine in some fashion to produce more than 2 WAR in RF. 

[Major League Ready]

 

I always hate it when I see something like "who, by and large, has hit more like a center fielder", inferring, that center fielders aren't even expected to hit, and it is fine if they don't. When I think of center fielders, I think of Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, Ken Griffey Jr, Mike Trout, Duke Snider, Joe Dimaggio.......... I could go on and on. Center fielders should hit, too.

 

This link shows wRC+ by position from 2000-2018. We would all like to have one of these superstars in  CF but they are exceptional and therefore exceptions not the rule. The fact is that CFers don't hit as well as corner OFers.

 

 https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/9nbhjb/2018_league_average_wrc_by_position/

[wsnydes]

I'm not taking much out of 2020; good, bad or otherwise. That goes for anybody, not just Kepler. Far too quirky of a season. That said, 2019 is still the outlier. I do think he can repeat that performance, I'll have to see it before I get too excited about him turning a corner.

[Joey Self]

 

I'm very bearish on Kepler. I believe 2019 was an outlier year in terms of offensive production really all across the league, and I think we'll see Max continue to put up numbers similar to 2016-2018, where he hit around .230 with an OPS+ around 95.

 

What continues to puzzle me is Rocco's persistent with putting Kepler as leadoff. A career .237 hitter should not be leading off. However I think that Rocco will finally come to his senses and put either Polanco or Arraez in the 1 spot. Also if Kepler's spring struggles continue into the regular season, and if the Twins care about putting the best team possible on the field, I think Garlick or a prospect should be given a chance in right field. 

I agree with this, especially having Kepler as a leadoff hitter.  I don't remember exactly the number, but it's something like the leadoff hitter will get 18 more at bats every year than the #2 hitter, and so on down the line.  I want a lineup where the guy that get on base the most hits first, the second most hits second, etc.  I'd make some allowances for speed (i.e. if it were Cruz then Buxton, I'd flip them to keep Cruz from clogging the bases in front of Buxton), and to mix up the righty/lefty hitters to make it harder for relievers under the 3-batter rule, but by and large, I want the guy that reaches base the most frequently in the batter's box the most often. 

JcS

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

This link shows wRC+ by position from 2000-2018. We would all like to have one of these superstars in  CF but they are exceptional and therefore exceptions not the rule. The fact is that CFers don't hit as well as corner OFers.

 

 https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/9nbhjb/2018_league_average_wrc_by_position/

Interesting link. I'm shocked that SS ranks second after RF among position players. (In the AL, that is.)

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

 

I agree with this, especially having Kepler as a leadoff hitter.  I don't remember exactly the number, but it's something like the leadoff hitter will get 18 more at bats every year than the #2 hitter, and so on down the line.  I want a lineup where the guy that get on base the most hits first, the second most hits second, etc.  I'd make some allowances for speed (i.e. if it were Cruz then Buxton, I'd flip them to keep Cruz from clogging the bases in front of Buxton), and to mix up the righty/lefty hitters to make it harder for relievers under the 3-batter rule, but by and large, I want the guy that reaches base the most frequently in the batter's box the most often. 

JcS

If I stop the noise that has accumulated over Buxton's career, and say start now, I'd say he should definitely bat lead off. And ... why did he stop stealing bases in the last year and a half? He wears a wacky oven mitt (which I think should be regulated; I suppose this year they'll even be longer, thus more absurd). But that's beside the point. The point was. ... What was the point? That Buxton is the logical leadoff man, while Arraez gets on bases he runs slow and he has wonky knees.

[Channing1964]

Sure, in a perfect world, but the point is still valid - you're more likely to accept less offensive performance from a center fielder. Paul Blair is the epitome of this - he had a career OPS of .684, but his defense was other world stuff. In 1974, he finished 13th in MVP balloting with an OPS of .730.

Nobody will believe I am saying this but here it goes.... I don't believe Falvey sits in his office and goes to Levine, "hey have you seen Kepler's current analytical peripheral numbers? maybe we should switch Byron to right and Max to center. Max looks like way more of a HISTORICALLY center fielder hitter than Byron. Get Baldelli on the phone.(the last part i am sure really happens) Power is not going to be much of a worry as long as Sano and Cruz are around. Baseball would be pretty boring is all teams center fielders were all same kind of players as everyone else's. Can Max improve? Sure. I am sure he knows that. I like our players...a lot. So now that we ran Risario out of town we are going to pick on Kepler because he hit like a traditional center fielder. You dont get to preach analytics and then when you want to put a player on blast bring up old school logic. Falvey is going to look fir the best Players and put the brst team on the field without any traditional, historical, loyal, or organizational tendencies. He is totally going to re-write the Twins history books so...forget what you thought about the great Twins center fielders. Tovar, Puckett, Hunter, Revere, Span and Buxton. If it makes them feel good about taking credit for the trade, you see Joey Gallo in center field next weekend.

[Major League Ready]

 

Interesting link. I'm shocked that SS ranks second after RF among position players. (In the AL, that is.)

 

I think you read it incorrectly. SS ranks 2nd worst. I rearranged them highest to lowest. The up the middle positions C / CF / SS / 2B are the lowest four.  

 

--- Ave / NL / AL

1B - 114 117 111
RF - 109 109 109
DH - 106 93 107
LF - 106 109 102
3B - 102 103 101
CF - 99 100 99
2B - 95 96 95
SS - 90 88 91
 C  - 88 89 88

[Melissa]

 

Interesting link. I'm shocked that SS ranks second after RF among position players. (In the AL, that is.)

 

And only for 2018, I might add. For the bigger picture, SS are below average hitters (MLB wRC+ of 90, just above catchers).

 

Edited to add: I see that Major League Ready already pointed this out.

[DocBauer]

Maybe I've just always been a fan of Kepler due to his story and his athleticism. IMO, he started behind similar young players when he was initially signed. He played in Germany and didn't have the same level of opposition or camps or touring teams, etc, that his counterparts had as HS'ers in the US. And here I go with, "that being said", he's been in the league long enough now that it's time to see him hit his ceiling and harness all that athleticism on a more consistent basis.

 

Now, I think he did that in 2019. I'm willing to throw out 2020 for Kepler the same as I am for a number of guys. And I think that's fair to do as we all know how strange last year was for everyone in so many different ways.

 

I have no negative issues going in to this year, and a lot of belief, UNLESS we see a repeat of 2020.

 

Numbers I've seen somewhere recently showed he had some really good numbers leading off a game. That can be a great way to jump start your team. And I'm sure Rocco has all the data points that makes him believe Kepler is a good choice as the #1 batter. But I really think he's more valuable hitting lower in the 3-4-5 spots mixed in with Donaldson and Cruz and ahead of Sano for sure. And there were some very interesting numbers about Kepler on the ST Live podcast Tuesday concerning his being better than average when it comes to SO and moving runners along, etc.

 

Ax far as the future goes and depth, I find myself wondering about room for Max along with Kirilloff, Larnach, Rooker and Sano come 2022 and beyond. Not saying a trade couldn't happen, but 5 guys and 4 spots, is there room for everyone? There could be. I think it's something to contemplate.

[Major League Ready]

Ax far as the future goes and depth, I find myself wondering about room for Max along with Kirilloff, Larnach, Rooker and Sano come 2022 and beyond. Not saying a trade couldn't happen, but 5 guys and 4 spots, is there room for everyone? There could be. I think it's something to contemplate.

 

I was just thinking the same thing. It's not like Kepler is hurting us but it's also not hard to imagine two of Kirilloff, Larnach, Rooker occupying the corner OF spots and perhaps all three with Rooker splitting time between OF / 1B & DH. Best case scenario they get more production out of one of the prospects, save some money to be applied elsewhere and get a return for Kepler. That's the kind of scenario that puts a team in contention. We can hope, right?

[joefish]

With the deadened baseball this season, guys are gonna have to re-tool their swings again. Kepler may get "back" to being a better hitter. Find the swing that got him here.

[beckmt]

If Kepler continues to be a dead pull hitter, do not see a major future here.  And agree he may have more value to a building team in center field in return for pitching assets that do not fit that teams timeline.  He is not a bad player, wonder like a lot of the rest of this forum, if Kepler will be passed this year when Larnach is ready (not the defender, but much better hit tool).  

Using the whole field can be learned, but he is running out of time.

[Twins33]

I’ve been okay with Kepler leading off as he usually leads the team in BB% (or at least top 3) but the way he looks this spring isn’t great...

 

if he doesn’t pick it up, I lean Polanco. I’m still a fan of Kep but I expected him to be better than he is based on BB and K percentages.