The 5 Rule Draft

[Doctor Gast]

This year's Rule 5 draft we lost Akil Baddo and Tyler Wells. So I thought I'd check to see how they were doing. 1st I checked on Baddo, hoping he was doing terrible so he'd be returned quickly to the Twins. No such luck, he was leading in runs scored and towards the top on all offensive stats including HRs and RBIs for DET. Then I checked on Wells and he was pitching pretty well for the Orioles.

They were 2 great prospects that we had and lost without really much compensation. Because we didn't make room for them on the 40 man roster.

This is one of 1st things I warned about when I first joined Twins Daily. That we need to better manage our 40 man roster. We have players on the list that were expendable and worth something but are almost worthless now. Managing by upgrading our prospects by trading off some lesser and expendable players on the list for greater valued ones in areas where is more crucial and depleted.

CF is an area that is crucial and depleted, it hurts to lose players like Baddo and Wells. And if we continues to hoard players that are expendable, this problem will continue to become worse.

Not trading these players not only hurts the team but also the players.

[nicksaviking]

While I'm in favor of much more actively trading the prospects, I'm not ready to close the book on these two just yet. Looking beyond his ERA, Wells looks like he's actually been pretty bad in his very brief audition. Poor strike out numbers and poor walk numbers. He's allowed 5 hits, 2 walks and a hit batter in his four innings. Eight of the 20 batters he's faced have reached.

 

Unless Detroit plans on taking things seriously this year, they'd be foolish not to keep Baddo, he's always looked pretty talented. Detroit often strikes me as foolish though.

[Doctor Gast]

While I'm in favor of much more actively trading the prospects, I'm not ready to close the book on these two just yet. Looking beyond his ERA, Wells looks like he's actually been pretty bad in his very brief audition. Poor strike out numbers and poor walk numbers. He's allowed 5 hits, 2 walks and a hit batter in his four innings. Eight of the 20 batters he's faced have reached.

 

Unless Detroit plans on taking things seriously this year, they'd be foolish not to keep Baddo, he's always looked pretty talented. Detroit often strikes me as foolish though.

I hope you are right but DET like to take our discards and those who slip through our fingers. A J Hinch seems to me as a serious manager. He just does foolish things sometimes to gain an edge.

[jkcarew]

I agree with the sentiment...but I can’t work up much consternation over these two.

 

I think a team like the Twins expected to compete for a championship can only roster so many centerfielders who don’t have more than a handful of PA beyond low A ball. They chose Celestino who falls into that caregory, and exposed Baddoo who does, as well. Beyond that, the 2021 Twins kinda owe it to themselves to carry some of the Kyle Garrick’s of the world. And then, given his 2019 elbow injury and then COVID, the last opportunity to trade Baddoo was probably at the end of 2018, or at the 2018 trade deadline...quite some time ago.

 

The fact that the Tigers would take and carry someone like Baddoo (683 OPS in 131 A+ PA)...and a guy considered to have plenty of upside, but not really a top prospect...it just demonstrates how far the tanking thing has gone in MLB. (Not that I wouldn’t have done the same thing if I were the Tigers.)
 

Meanwhile, I’m not sure Wells ever reached the status that would have made him particularly material in a trade. Again, perfect for a tanking team, but not someone a tanking team would have given up anything near a promising prospect for in a trade.

[Danchat]

I wouldn't be concerned at all. Baddoo has a long ways to go as a hitter and has barely played in the minors. Wells might become a decent reliever... and he's already 26 and 3 spring training innings means absolutely nothing in the long run. I think it'd be a waste to keep both Ober and him on the 40 man.

 

If I ranked where those two would be on my prospect rankings at these spots:

 

Baddoo - #17 (around Jose Miranda, Travis Blankenhorn)

Wells - #32 (around Bailey Ober, Yunior Severino)

[Shaitan]

It's fun to watch and bet on prospects but, ultimately, if the Twins don't value a player enough for a spot on the 40-roster, let 'em get their shot somewhere else. The odds they'll be successful somewhere else (as shown in recent Rule 5 history) is low.

 

Even Johan spent another year in AAA and didn't blossom until like 3 years later. That's a huge investment for the drafting team.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Even Johan spent another year in AAA and didn't blossom until like 3 years later. That's a huge investment for the drafting team.

Not to take away from your general point, but actually Johan only spent about 2 months in the minors for the Twins, at the beginning of the 2002 season where he learned his magic from Bobby Cuellar.

 

After his Rule 5 season in 2000, Johan somewhat controversially made the Twins opening day roster in 2001, in the bullpen, and spent the entire season either on the MLB roster or (mostly) on the MLB disabled list.

[Dman]

 

This year's Rule 5 draft we lost Akil Baddo and Tyler Wells. So I thought I'd check to see how they were doing. 1st I checked on Baddo, hoping he was doing terrible so he'd be returned quickly to the Twins. No such luck, he was leading in runs scored and towards the top on all offensive stats including HRs and RBIs for DET. Then I checked on Wells and he was pitching pretty well for the Orioles.
They were 2 great prospects that we had and lost without really much compensation. Because we didn't make room for them on the 40 man roster.
This is one of 1st things I warned about when I first joined Twins Daily. That we need to better manage our 40 man roster. We have players on the list that were expendable and worth something but are almost worthless now. Managing by upgrading our prospects by trading off some lesser and expendable players on the list for greater valued ones in areas where is more crucial and depleted.
CF is an area that is crucial and depleted, it hurts to lose players like Baddo and Wells. And if we continues to hoard players that are expendable, this problem will continue to become worse.
Not trading these players not only hurts the team but also the players.

 

It is unfortunate they didn't get anything for Baddoo.  Frist let me say I don't think he was vital cog in their plans.  His arm is not the strongest so he is likely stuck in left and we have a lot of left fielders.  He can be used in center but it seems doubtful he would ever be elite there and certainly not long term.  Still I don't think the Twins wanted to lose him.  I think they looked at the fact that he had not played above High A ball and was a position player a player who at High A had a hole in his swing.  The odds of a team carrying such a player all year seemed pretty slim.

 

However, it appears they miscalculated.  I think several of us on the board thought they would protect him for the following reasons.  He has really good speed and would be a plus defender in left and an option in center though likely not above average there.  He has always had a good eye at the plate and to me this is the reason they should have protected him.  By having a good eye even if he is having trouble hitting he can still get on base and not be an automatic out.  So it can buy time to get used to MLB pitching.  He has a power swing that is likely geared to Home Runs.  If the hit tool comes around he would have easily been a top 5 prospect in the Twins system we just never got the chance to see where he was at because he was injured and Covid and I guess the Twins were hoping other teams would feel the same way.

 

I know it is just spring training but this could be a big time miss by the Twins.  Even if he didn't fit into their plans if his hit tool has improved he would have been a very valuable trade chip.  Instead they lost him for nothing.  IMO they got too cocky and blew it on this one.  Personally, I think they are going to be eating that decision for a good long time as Baddoo looks like the real deal and should help our direct competition become much better.  Hopefully Detroit sent them a bottle of something to ease the pain.

[Shaitan]

 

It is unfortunate they didn't get anything for Baddoo...The odds of a team carrying such a player all year seemed pretty slim.

He still has to stay on the roster in DET until October. In other words, the Twins may get something for him. Trades for Rule 5 draftees are probably more common than simply rostering the player all year.

 

That said, the expanded roster size could change things.

[4twinsJA]

Baseball America had interesting piece a couple of weeks ago. Teams average only 11 prospects in a given year in their minor league systems that will have at least 3 year MLB careers. Considering each team this year control 180 players in minor leagues, not a very high percentage. So I can appreciate the argument to trade prospects but Baddoo and Wells may not have had much value.

[Doctor Gast]

My point isn't that to keep Baddo or Wells in the system, although they may develop into such players. But being able to control them. Always upgrading our roster, not let anyone slip through. By trading away several inferior, less crucial players for fewer superior, more crucial players. Baddo or Wells could be vital part of this organization or they could be a vital part of a trade to improve the quality of our 40 man roster. If they are lost our roster is less desirable.

[ashbury]

My point isn't that to keep Baddo or Wells in the system, although they may develop into such players. But always upgrading our roster, not let anyone slip through. By trading away several inferior, less crucial players for fewer superior, more crucial players. Baddo or Wells could be vital part of this organization or they could be a vital part of a trade to improve the quality of our 40 man roster. If they are lost our roster is less desirable.

It's a sound strategy, if you can find a trading partner. I do it all the time when I play Out Of The Park on my computer. But really, how many teams are able to pull this off in real life? Nowadays every GM has the same mindset - package some extras in return for another team's gold.

 

I just don't think Baddoo and Wells were nearly the trading chips you do.

 

[Doctor Gast]

It's a sound strategy, if you can find a trading partner. I do it all the time when I play Out Of The Park on my computer. But really, how many teams are able to pull this off in real life? Nowadays every GM has the same mindset - package some extras in return for another team's gold.

 

I just don't think Baddoo and Wells were nearly the trading chips you do.

 

I appreciate the fact that you others have stated that Baddo and Wells aren't worth much in trade value but my intention is not to trade them but continue to develop them. Those I'd trade are those that we've developed that are expendable that is worth something.

I think you could find a trade in most cases if you try.

[Trov]

 

This year's Rule 5 draft we lost Akil Baddo and Tyler Wells. So I thought I'd check to see how they were doing. 1st I checked on Baddo, hoping he was doing terrible so he'd be returned quickly to the Twins. No such luck, he was leading in runs scored and towards the top on all offensive stats including HRs and RBIs for DET. Then I checked on Wells and he was pitching pretty well for the Orioles.
They were 2 great prospects that we had and lost without really much compensation. Because we didn't make room for them on the 40 man roster.
This is one of 1st things I warned about when I first joined Twins Daily. That we need to better manage our 40 man roster. We have players on the list that were expendable and worth something but are almost worthless now. Managing by upgrading our prospects by trading off some lesser and expendable players on the list for greater valued ones in areas where is more crucial and depleted.
CF is an area that is crucial and depleted, it hurts to lose players like Baddo and Wells. And if we continues to hoard players that are expendable, this problem will continue to become worse.
Not trading these players not only hurts the team but also the players.

Who on the current 40 man roster would you have left off for these two?  Then who that needs to be on it next year would you leave off for these two?  The 40 man roster construction is about more than just making sure possible prospects are on it.  You need to have guys that can step in right way for the team, even more so if you are hoping to push for the ship.  We have Keon Broxton in camp not on 40 man.  If he stays with team to play in St. Paul, he is some we can add should the need come to play CF. 

 

You also advocate for trading lesser players, but it takes two teams to make a trade.  So if we value them not enough to be on 40 man roster, why would a team give up any kind of asset for them, when they would get put on waivers when removed from 40 man and could be picked up for free?  Sometimes players are left to rule 5 because there just are no other options for the team.  Maybe both get sent down and we bring them back, maybe not.  Do you really think either are of such value that in the next year or two we will be kicking ourselves for this move?  

[Doctor Gast]

Who on the current 40 man roster would you have left off for these two?  Then who that needs to be on it next year would you leave off for these two?  The 40 man roster construction is about more than just making sure possible prospects are on it.  You need to have guys that can step in right way for the team, even more so if you are hoping to push for the ship.  We have Keon Broxton in camp not on 40 man.  If he stays with team to play in St. Paul, he is some we can add should the need come to play CF. 

 

You also advocate for trading lesser players, but it takes two teams to make a trade.  So if we value them not enough to be on 40 man roster, why would a team give up any kind of asset for them, when they would get put on waivers when removed from 40 man and could be picked up for free?  Sometimes players are left to rule 5 because there just are no other options for the team.  Maybe both get sent down and we bring them back, maybe not.  Do you really think either are of such value that in the next year or two we will be kicking ourselves for this move?

 

My point of view is we have a lot of players at noncrucial positions maybe 6 deep or so that are nonessential. I'm suggesting to trade some of them to obtain a player that is more essential to improve the team and make more room for players like Broxton. If there any nonessential developed player that on our 40 man even a team like PIT wouldn't want in their system they shouldn't be in ours.

Back to Baddo and Wells, I think at least Baddo is worth trying to keep around to further develop. If we keep on this same track, it'll be harder keep greater valued prospects.

[Dman]

 

Who on the current 40 man roster would you have left off for these two?  Then who that needs to be on it next year would you leave off for these two?  The 40 man roster construction is about more than just making sure possible prospects are on it.  You need to have guys that can step in right way for the team, even more so if you are hoping to push for the ship.  We have Keon Broxton in camp not on 40 man.  If he stays with team to play in St. Paul, he is some we can add should the need come to play CF. 

 

You also advocate for trading lesser players, but it takes two teams to make a trade.  So if we value them not enough to be on 40 man roster, why would a team give up any kind of asset for them, when they would get put on waivers when removed from 40 man and could be picked up for free?  Sometimes players are left to rule 5 because there just are no other options for the team.  Maybe both get sent down and we bring them back, maybe not.  Do you really think either are of such value that in the next year or two we will be kicking ourselves for this move?  

 

You make a good point.  40 Man construction has to take many variables into consideration.  For me I would have tried to trade Wade and kept Baddoo.  I know that Means they wouldn't have Garlic but Garlic is 28 and will never be an elite defender anywhere on the field.  With his decent eye at the plate Baddoo would have been Wade with power and an above average defender in left depending on how you see his arm. 

 

Baddoo would have been a younger player with improved potential over Wade. Garlic is nice but we have plenty of slow plodding hitters and he and Rooker are essentially the same limited player. At least Baddoo can play defense maybe steal a base and take walks at a decent clip.  That is something we don't have much of in the system.

 

Maybe you are right and maybe the Twins don't see all that much value in Baddoo and they know him best.  He is having a nice spring which doesn't mean a whole lot but it does show the potential many of us felt he had.  I think it will be proven they made a mistake but that is just my opinion.

 

As for Wells I hated to lose him but you just can't keep every marginal pitcher in the system.  Those guys float around and you have to accept some losses on late bloomers or pitchers on the edges of the 40 man.  I just don't feel the same way about Baddoo.  Should know more as the season progresses.  Maybe a trade can be worked out so they can move him up and down will have to wait and see I guess.  

[old nurse]

The last rule 5 player to go from a ball and succeed in the majors was?  

 

If the Twins are going to lose either of these players it will be through trades. When San Diego kept players  on the roster I do not recall it working out that well.

[rdehring]

I hear what you are saying, Doc, and in theory agree.

 

In addition to what was mentioned above, I would like to add that minor league ball was shut down last summer. Gotta believe there wasn't much of a market to trade anyone. Someone can correct me, but I am guessing there weren't a lot of trades involving minor league guys like these two.

[gunnarthor]

I didn't pay enough attention to roster management this year but Baddoo has always been a huge prospect for me. I was really sad to hear him be unprotected. 

 

Here's a nice article on him from yahoo.

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/sizzling-akil-baddoo-creating-pleasant-171800269.html

[Dman]

 

I didn't pay enough attention to roster management this year but Baddoo has always been a huge prospect for me. I was really sad to hear him be unprotected. 

 

Here's a nice article on him from yahoo.

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/sizzling-akil-baddoo-creating-pleasant-171800269.html

 

Thanks for that!  I think they will keep him on their 40 man.  I don't think he makes it back to the Twins as he is looking too close to ready.  Twins gambled and lost IMO.

[BSLinPA]

Doc G........i ,too, am a little disappointed that we never really got a chance to see Badoo develop, but you didnt answer Trov's question:  Who on the current 40 man roster would you have left off for these two?

 

And Dman......the Twins DID trade Wade!!  :-)

[baul0010]

In realty, when would Badoo have a chance to even see the field for the Twins.  I would think he's been passed by Celestino and we still have Buxton.  This is why the rule 5 draft is available.  Give the kid a shot at playing in the majors.  I hope he makes it and does well.  Better than being a Twins minor leaguer for life.  It isn't the fact that we don't like them...the system is set up for them to get a better chance at playing major league ball.  At the end of the day, isn't that the dream of every player.  

[jud6312]

 

Thanks for that!  I think they will keep him on their 40 man.  I don't think he makes it back to the Twins as he is looking too close to ready.  Twins gambled and lost IMO.

Keeping him on their 40 man roster isn't the issue. But he needs to stick on the active roster for the entire season.

 

If the Tigers are as bad as they are in normal years, he could/stick, but OF seems like a place they have some depth and options.

[Doctor Gast]

Doc G........i ,too, am a little disappointed that we never really got a chance to see Badoo develop, but you didnt answer Trov's question:  Who on the current 40 man roster would you have left off for these two?

 

And Dman......the Twins DID trade Wade!!  :-)

I did answered the question and to reiterate the main point of this thread- nobody. I'd reduce the # of players by trading away several inferior nonessential players for fewer superior more essential players, leaving more open spots. To repeat I'd try my hardest to not leave any worthwhile player unprotected.

[Dman]

 

Doc G........i ,too, am a little disappointed that we never really got a chance to see Badoo develop, but you didnt answer Trov's question:  Who on the current 40 man roster would you have left off for these two?

 

And Dman......the Twins DID trade Wade!!  :-)

 

Yep totally get that but then they went and added Garlic.  So in my mind if they felt they could only have so many outfielder's on the 40 man as a reason not to add Baddoo, they could have swapped Wade for Baddoo and not added Garlick. They had been carrying seven for quite some time all they had to do was trade Wade to save them from carrying eight..  They did eventually do that but after the rule V draft and then added another outfielder after trading Wade. So my statement still Stands since they are still carrying 7 they could have had Baddoo instead of Garlick

 

However if you don't like that answer I would say they could have also tried to trade Cave.  His OPS is OK but not great.  Baddoo's defense is just as good if not better and Baddoo can take walks something Cave isn't as good at.  Baddoo's power is just as good if not better as well.  Cave's batting average isn't that great either so even if Baddoo wasn't that great he wouldn't have been a huge step down and likely could have replaced Cave's production but hard to say for sure until he plays in MLB.

 

With Wade gone as well that move is a bit risky because at that time you don't know exactly what you are getting in Baddoo and Cave is a vet and you know exactly what you are getting.  Still with Kirilloff ready, Arraez as an option there along with Rooker and likely Celestino if absolutely needed I think they could have saved Baddoo from rule V without clogging the 40 man outfield options.  I also predict Cave will be gone after this year anyway.  It would have just come a year early is all.

[Doctor Gast]

We have a lot of players that fit in the description of not so fast, good bat and not so good glove. They seem to hoard this category of players. At LF even without Rosario we have an abundance of options so why did they go out to get Garlic and immediately put him on the 40 man and not Broxton.

Don't get me wrong I like Garlic but we are way over the # of this type of player. I agree with Dmin Cave is one who is expendable. Also I think that FO needs to stop hoarding these type of players.

[Doctor Gast]

so why did they go out to get Garlic and immediately put him on the 40 man and not Broxton?

To answer my own question, because we picked him off waivers and we wanted to protect him

[Rosterman]

I'm actually looking at the Twins current 40-man, and there isn't a lot of player movement if you wanted to add a body. Who do you subtract in the grand scheme of things. Gordon? Smeltzer? If Thielbar stunk up the bullpen, easy cut. But he is holding his own. Garlick and Blankenhorn? Chalmers, Colina and Ober - all higher than Wells in the pecking order.

 

During the off-season you do keep a couple of potential clunkers on the 40-man because you may have to jettison someone for a free-agent signing (which the Twins did, or a trade). But, man, the 40-man is tight. Happily ALL the names would be a potential call-up if the need arose. (Otherwise, why have them on the roster, or in the case of Babboo you would be carrying him (like Celestino) for a couple of seasons with no call-up because you think he is THE ONE.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

My point of view is we have a lot of players at noncrucial positions maybe 6 deep or so that are nonessential. I'm suggesting to trade some of them to obtain a player that is more essential to improve the team and make more room for players like Broxton. If there any nonessential developed player that on our 40 man even a team like PIT wouldn't want in their system they shouldn't be in ours.

Takes two to tango. Most teams generally aren't eager to deal players the Twins might consider "essential" in return for prospects we deem "nonessential." And rebuilding teams with the most roster space, like Pittsburgh, may not have many/any players who would be "essential" for the Twins anyway.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The last rule 5 player to go from a ball and succeed in the majors was?  

Not much Rule 5 success at all since they changed the eligibility rules in the mid-2000s.

 

Still too early to tell, but Elieser Hernández looked good for the Marlins in 2020 and should begin 2021 in their rotation again. He was selected out of A-ball from the Astros before the 2018 season.

 

FWIW, Tyler Wells actually had 6 games and 32 IP at AA (and did very well). In terms of experience, that's probably equivalent to Pressly's 14 relief appearances at AA before we selected him in Rule 5, and maybe some other guys. Of course, Wells has 2 years on the sidelines since then, although I'm not sure it's anything crazy like Nick Burdi yet -- just TJ in May 2019 and then the pandemic shutdown in 2020.

 

On that note, Baddoo probably could have logged some time in AA in 2020 if not for the cancelled minor league season. So in terms of experience, that could shift his past Rule 5 comparables a bit, although obviously not enough to meaningfully improve his MLB success forecast at this point.