Twins 2021 Position Analysis: Center Field

[Nick Nelson]

It's the same old story: Minnesota's center field situation will be the envy of nearly every team in the league in 2021 ... IF they can keep their guy on the field.

 

That's been a perpetual issue.Projected Starter: Byron Buxton

Likely Backup: Jake Cave

 

Depth: Max Kepler, Keon Broxton

Prospects: Gilberto Celestino, Misael Urbina

 

THE GOOD

 

Ever since he was a teenager, Byron Buxton's greatness was preordained. He was drafted second overall out of high school. He became the consensus No. 1 prospect in baseball. He debuted in the major leagues at age 21, and won a Platinum Glove at age 23.

 

Year after year, he's been situated as a centerpiece in Minnesota's plans. They rightfully view him as a singularly transformative force who can elevate a team to new heights. When Buxton's been on the field over the past two years, they've won 70% of their games.

 

 

It's all too easy to focus on the time he's spent off the field, but let's be clear: this is a premier athlete, at the height of his physical prime. He's 27 years old, and for now, he's healthy. We can dream on the (very real) possibilities.

 

Buxton's 2018 season was a total loss, sabotaged by front-to-back injury woes. But when you subtract that, his performance has been phenomenal since a breakout 2017 campaign. He has posted 7.5 fWAR in 266 games, mixing elite defensive value with outstanding offensive production – especially in the past couple seasons, where he's emerged as a power-hitting force.

 

It is here that we've seen the most progression and growth from Buxton as a hitter. As you compare his Statcast measurements from 2017 and last year, you can see this pretty clearly. What hasn't changed is that Buxton is unbelievably fast, and amazing at covering ground in the outfield. What has changed is that he's now crushing the ball with the best of 'em.

 

Download attachment: buxton2017.png

Download attachment: buxton2020.png

In 2019, Buxton set new career highs in basically every Statcast metric for power: Barrel %, Exit Velocity, Launch Angle, xSLG, Hard Hit %. In 2020, he was better in every category.

 

Between those two seasons, he launched 23 home runs in 126 games with a .534 slugging percentage. Buxton is a bona fide slugger, who also plays world-class defense in center. That's not a combination you come across very often.

 

 

Of course, Buxton's appeal doesn't doesn't end with his power stroke. What makes him a uniquely exciting and valuable player is his unrivaled speed. He can beat you by bashing it over the fence, or tapping a dribbler to the shortstop.

 

 

The Twins and Rocco Baldelli haven't opted to call many steals for him lately, but it's a weapon in his arsenal (he has an 87% career success rate) and Buxton can take extra bases with leisure. He keeps pitchers and defenses on edge. He's a threat at all times.

 

When he's healthy and in his groove, Byron Buxton impacts every phase of the game and single-handedly shifts outcomes. How many players have we been able to say that about?

 

THE BAD

 

Needless to say, keeping Buxton healthy and in his groove has been an overwhelming challenge. Dating back to 2018 he has missed more than half of the team's games, and the difference in outcomes with and without him has been dramatic.

 

 

The Twins have taken extensive measures to try and protect their superstar asset, to little avail. Last year he was healthier than usual, playing in two-thirds of Minnesota's regular-season games, but still ended the season hurt and unavailable. His surgically repaired shoulder reportedly continued to bother him (though you wouldn't know it by his results when swinging), and late in the year, he suffered a concussion after taking a fastball to the head.

 

No amount of planning or safety-focused coaching is going to be able to prevent things like this. More broadly, Buxton's game is based on aggressiveness and borderline-reckless speed. If he's not going all out, he's not Byron. All the Twins can do is embed small tweaks (such as launching off one foot for leaping attempts the wall) and hope for a little better luck. All parties involved are beyond due for it.

 

Alas, it'll be important to be prepared for his absence, with short-term and long-term contingencies.

 

For the former scenario, Jake Cave is ready to step in. In the event of a lengthier absence, the Twins are more likely to slide Max Kepler over and activate their depth in the corners. Cave and Kepler are both capable, but sizable downgrades from the incumbent.

 

Should Buxton find a way to stay mostly healthy this year, the key focus will be refining his approach at the plate. I've given up on the idea of him being a remotely disciplined hitter, and Buxton has proven he can make it work with a swing-at-everything mindset. His .844 OPS last season, when he drew two walks against 36 strikeouts, is evidence enough. But the .267 on-base percentage was painful, offsetting some of his power-driven value.

 

 

If Buxton's future is as a streaky, slump-prone, pure power bat, that's not the worst thing. It's certainly how the Twins treated him last year, batting him consistently at the middle-bottom of the lineup and having him attempt only three total steals.

 

But if he can just become a shade more selective at the plate, harnessing the pure hitting skill and modicum of discipline that contributed to a .310 average and .364 OBP at Triple-A, Buxton can take the next step to MVP-level stardom.

 

THE BOTTOM LINE

 

This is a massive season for Byron Buxton. He's at a crux point in his career, with free agency two years away and his reputation as a player on the line. Will he finally stay on the field, gaining the necessary comfort and consistency at the plate to fulfill his offensive potential while staying golden in center? If so, Buxton will probably be one of the two or three most impactful players in the league.

 

 

If 2021 brings more of the same – checkered availability along with offensive ups and downs – he'll be lined up to hit the open market more as an intriguing gamble for some team, as opposed to a highly coveted nine-figure stud.

 

The stakes aren't quite as high for the Twins, who by now are acclimated to playing without him, and fairly well positioned in terms of depth. But they know as well as anyone: Buxton is the single biggest wild-card in their quest to get over the hump.

 

READ OTHER 2021 POSITION ANALYSIS ARTICLES

• Catcher
• First Base
• Second Base
• Third Base
• Shortstop
• Left Field

 

Click here to view the article

[mikelink45]

I want Buxton, but after watching the spring training games if he is not there I want Celestino - I do not want to downgrade the position with Cave, Kepler or even Broxton.  CF is a prime defensive positions and Celestino shows that he is next in line.  

[ashbury]

That first video = 10 minutes of happiness

[Greglw3]

I agree with you. Kepler’s offensive performance except for 2/3 of one year is concerning. I just notice that Broxton has an OPS 1000 points higher than Kepler.  I know it’s only spring training so maybe we’ll see the real Kepler in the regular season. If spring training means anything for a player to make a team, Broxton, so far, is a must keep to me. I’m wondering if Rooker might end up being the regular LF?

[big dog]

No matter what I'm doing while the game is on, I stop when Byron is at bat. Anything hit to center field I look up to see what's going to happen. He's certainly the most exciting Twin I've watched in 50 years of serious fandom. I hope he can finally play a full season. Man do I hope that.

[TopGunn#22]

The idea of signing Buxton to an extension similar to Kepler, Polanco and Sano is a good one. 

 

A guy like Celestino is not that far off and in addition to Urbina there may be some others in the pipeline.  Heck, I still think Lewis will end up our CF'er.

 

But locking Buxton up for 3-5 years would be good for both sides.  Buxton gets a certain amount of security and the Twins are somewhat protected if he keeps getting hurt.

 

A guy like Broxton is very appealing, especially the way he's been playing in Spring Training.    

 

Plus, a contract extension makes trading Buxton easier if the Twins decide to move on.    There's certainty for the team acquiring him.    The Twins are BETTER with Buxton though, and that's why you extend him  (and Berrios PLEASE) !!!

 

[HrbieFan]

5 years $75M, who says no?

[saviking]

Could we just get one year of a healthy Buxton so he can realize his full potential ...

[Greglw3]

 

No matter what I'm doing while the game is on, I stop when Byron is at bat. Anything hit to center field I look up to see what's going to happen. He's certainly the most exciting Twin I've watched in 50 years of serious fandom. I hope he can finally play a full season. Man do I hope that.

I respect Buxton’s bursts into a really exciting player at times but I would go with Rod Carew as the most exciting Twins player I’ve watched. Just consistently exhilarating to watch. 

 

I take your point however that Buxton can be a very exciting player. If only he could get 600 PA and win games with his speed and defense!

[ToddlerHarmon]

Most center field prospects, if you could guarantee they would have Carlos Gomez' career, you would take that, perhaps grudgingly.

 

If that's where Buxton ends up, that's a damn shame.

 

[rdehring]

Add me to the list of those hoping the Twins get Buxton extended this spring. He may be the only Twin who has a real chance at being a league MVP. Hope like heck he gets it this year and earns a lot of bonuses that may be in that extension.

[chpettit19]

 

5 years $75M, who says no?

Buxton. And probably very quickly. George Springer just got 6 150 and that has to be closer to the starting point of what Buxton is looking for.

[ashbury]

Could we just get one year of a healthy Buxton so he can realize his full potential ...

I want much more than one, but one is the obvious starting point.

 

[Twins_Fan_For_Life]

Most exciting twin? I'll take Kirby in the dome. With a lefty on the mound.

[big dog]

 

I respect Buxton’s bursts into a really exciting player at times but I would go with Rod Carew as the most exciting Twins player I’ve watched. Just consistently exhilarating to watch. 

 

I take your point however that Buxton can be a very exciting player. If only he could get 600 PA and win games with his speed and defense!

Carew was a great, great hitter of course, but no one ever watched him in the field to see what magical play he would make next. He was fun on the bases, too. He and Kirby are in the conversation, but man, speed is magical and he's way ahead of them. OK, to be fair, he's way ahead of everyone.

[mikelink45]

 

I respect Buxton’s bursts into a really exciting player at times but I would go with Rod Carew as the most exciting Twins player I’ve watched. Just consistently exhilarating to watch. 

 

I take your point however that Buxton can be a very exciting player. If only he could get 600 PA and win games with his speed and defense!

I would go with Kirby - what he did in the WS was enough to make me a believer.

 

[Major League Ready]

 

Buxton. And probably very quickly. George Springer just got 6 150 and that has to be closer to the starting point of what Buxton is looking for.

 

Since 2016 Springer has produced 20.8 WAR / Buxton 9.0.  Springer is durable and Buxton is not. Springer is also a significantly better hitter. I don't think Springer is a reasonable comp.

[sdangus]

Kirby. At one point he was a great CF, too.

 

[sampleSizeOfOne]

I am actually excited for the a lot of the back up talent, but i'm okay with not so much discussion of their merits. Buxton sure deserves the attention.

 

If Buxton signed an extention, it wouldn't just make my day, it'd make my um... however long the extention is for.

 

But meh. I would wish it to be fair for both sides, so no pressure on either side to get it done, especially with a CBA running out.

[Dr. Evil]

I hope I end up being wrong and looking stupid for saying this. I really do.

 

I feel that an extension would be dead money for a large portion of the contract term.

[DocBauer]

The truth is Buxton has never been and never will bet he high AVG/OB speed guy we originally envisioned him being. So what?! I know it's a completely unfair comparison, but that's what Puckett was supposed to be and was initially before his power emerged. Again, unfair comp, but there is a parallel there to consider.

 

Buxton has been emerging as a real XB power threat who legs stuff out and can still steal a base while providing special defense. Doesn't mean he doesn't have room to improve aspects of hitting, contact, OB, etc. But we've seen what he is capable of the last couple of years.

 

Unfortunately, the injury history is the very large elephant in the room. And right now, I can't give you a single example from memory of a player or pitcher that dealt with a number of early injuries before suddenly getting healthy except maybe Hunter. But I know they are out there. (I've sometimes referenced Robert Smith from the Vikings, but different sport entirely).

 

In fairness to Buck, without being dismissive, some of his injuries have been "fluke-ish" in nature. And no way a FB to the helmet at the end of 2020 was on him. To the Twins credit, they have worked hard with him on everything from positioning to jumping for balls to helping him realize that sometimes running in to a wall at 26mph or laying out for an incredible catch may not be best for him or the team in the short as well as long term.

 

To Byron's credit, he seems to be listening and learning. Also to his credit, he's been working hard the last couple of years to build muscle and strength for his body. The simple fact is, athlete or not, bodies grow and mature differently. He was a long, lithe speed demon initially but may have still been growing in to his frame in his early 20's. While losing little to no speed, he's really filled out his frame the past couple of years.

 

Still only 27yo and already a difference maker when on the field, is he just ready to start reaching his prime both performance wise and physically? Maybe I'm just hopeful, but I think I'd take that bet.

 

I am fine with Kepler as a fill-in at CF here and there. He'd probably start there for some teams. He's not great, but he's good. While his offense has thus far been "streaky", unfortunately, I was impressed with Cave defensively last year. He seemed to be much more sure of himself and his reads and quit trying to make amazing plays that would have him diving for balls out of his reach.

 

I've gone from hopeful on Celestino to a believer. Whether a 4th OF or future replacement for Buxton, I think he's going to make it. And there are a few others behind him that have a real shot and provide depth in the system for sure. Still hopeful that the Tigers aren't going to find a way to keep Badoo and he will be returned.

 

I'm in favor of an extension for Buck, even though there is risk involved. Much like Berrios, same age but different endurance situation, I feel Buxton may just be hitting the time and place where he's ready to take the next step. And I'd hate to risk being late to that dance.

[Doctor Gast]

Buck has bulked up which will help both his durability and power. He's in his prime so extend him now before his stock explodes. We are an winning elite team with him in the field which speaks volumes of his talent. On the other hand when he's not in the line up we lose a good majority of the games which speaks of the lack of ability of his subs.

Of the 3 that subbed him last year, Cave is the worst and he's the main replacement. I really like Celestino, those who opposed Lewis, stating he spent very little time in AA and didn't like his high leg kick; Celestino has the same high leg kick and has only a short time in A.

 

Broxton is our best replacement for Buxton and as 4th OF. We have needed someone like him for maybe the past 5yrs. He would have improved our winning % when Buxton was out.

Let's close that gap between Buxton and his replacements, bring in Broxton and greatly improved our CF overall.

[Greglw3]

 

Carew was a great, great hitter of course, but no one ever watched him in the field to see what magical play he would make next. He was fun on the bases, too. He and Kirby are in the conversation, but man, speed is magical and he's way ahead of them. OK, to be fair, he's way ahead of everyone.

I just saw a replay of that walkoff single that Buxton beat out on a pretty routine grounder to short. That was amazing! I was also watching that game as it happened.

[chpettit19]

 

Since 2016 Springer has produced 20.8 WAR / Buxton 9.0.  Springer is durable and Buxton is not. Springer is also a significantly better hitter. I don't think Springer is a reasonable comp.

I didn't say I'd pay Buxton that money, but it's where his camp is going to start. Buxton had that 9.0 WAR in 386 games, Springer got his 20.8 in 615. That's the challenge of Buxton. He is putting up Springer's WAR on a per game basis and has the ability to be that impactful, but can't stay on the field. That's what the article broke down in the good and bad sections. His positives are huge, but his negative is he gets paid to sit in the trainer's room.

 

The comment I replied to was questioning 5 years and 75 mil for Buxton. He has no reason to accept that deal right now and can't imagine his agent would let him. He has 2 more years before hitting free agency and if he puts together 1 complete year of elite defense with the batted ball data he had the last 2 years he's getting at least what Springer got when he hits free agency 2 years younger than Springer did. So I stick by his agent hanging up on the Twins if that's what they bring, but the Twins hanging up on his agent if he asks for Springer money now. That's the challenge of a Buxton extension right now.

[Major League Ready]

 

I didn't say I'd pay Buxton that money, but it's where his camp is going to start. Buxton had that 9.0 WAR in 386 games, Springer got his 20.8 in 615. That's the challenge of Buxton. He is putting up Springer's WAR on a per game basis and has the ability to be that impactful, but can't stay on the field. That's what the article broke down in the good and bad sections. His positives are huge, but his negative is he gets paid to sit in the trainer's room.

 

The comment I replied to was questioning 5 years and 75 mil for Buxton. He has no reason to accept that deal right now and can't imagine his agent would let him. He has 2 more years before hitting free agency and if he puts together 1 complete year of elite defense with the batted ball data he had the last 2 years he's getting at least what Springer got when he hits free agency 2 years younger than Springer did. So I stick by his agent hanging up on the Twins if that's what they bring, but the Twins hanging up on his agent if he asks for Springer money now. That's the challenge of a Buxton extension right now.

 

The whole point was Springer's durability has value. Is it fair to say Two players who produce the same when the both play are not of the same value to the team when one plays far less? This comparison makes no sense unless your position or Buxton's position is that we should not consider the injury / playing time component because he is no longer going to be injury prone.

 

BTW ... Buxton's WAR production is still only 68% of Springer's WAR per game. You have illustrated why it could be difficult to sign Buxton to an extension. Buxton and his agent might think he is Springer's equivalent.

[chpettit19]

 

The whole point was Springer's durability has value. Is it fair to say Two players who produce the same when the both play are not of the same value to the team when one plays far less?

 

BTW ... Buxton's WAR production is still only 68% of Springer's WAR per game. You have illustrated why it could be difficult to sign Buxton to an extension. Buxton and his agent might think he is Springer's equivalent.

I agree his durability has value. And, again, I'm not saying the Twins should pay Buxton that money, but his healthy seasons put Buxton right there with Springer outside Springer's age 29 season in 2019 when he had 6.4 WAR. Buxton was healthy for most of 17 and had 5.0 WAR at age 23 to Springer's 5.0 at age 27 that year. Buxton was healthy most of 20 and had 2.1 WAR at age 26 to Springer's 2.2 at age 30. 

 

I responded to a comment asking who would say no to a 5 year 75 mil extension for Buxton happening right now. Buxton would say no. And he'd say it very quickly. If I'm the Twins I don't give him Springer money. If I'm Buxton and/or his agent I'm asking for Springer money. He's going to hit free agency before he turns 30. When healthy he puts up numbers comparable to Springer. They have no reason to do an extension on the cheap right now.

 

I think we agree that a Buxton extension right now is very complicated and there's a wide range in what you can argue his worth is. Because of that if I'm the Twins I'm not giving him an extension unless he's willing to take a pretty sizable discount from what his healthy stats have said he's worth since 2017. But Buxton and his team can absolutely say he's worth Springer money based on his healthy stats and playout his arb years unless they get something close to it.