Has Wes Johnson Tipped Us Off on Twins' Pitching Philosophy?

[Matthew Trueblood]

When asked in press conferences about the readiness of the Twins’ top pitching prospects, pitching coach Wes Johnson has established a familiar refrain: “He needs to throw strikes with more than just his fastball.” Hmm. That’s interesting.It’s not like what Johnson is saying is a revolutionary, off-the-wall idea. Since the curveball was invented in the 19th century, pitchers have faced the challenge of making non-fastballs look appealing enough that batters actually swing at them, thereby capturing the advantage such changes of speed and direction are supposed to lend. Command and control are as important to success as velocity or movement, even in 2021.

 

However, the modern trends in MLB run increasingly toward what pitchers call “chase” secondary pitches. There are still hurlers who like to buckle knees with curves for called strikes, but most of the league leans toward sliders, which tend to have more lateral movement and (therefore) can more often miss the plate. The slider mostly works by inducing hitters to swing at what looks like a strike, but turns out not to be. Ditto for the changeup.

 

As a result, over the last three seasons, the league is throwing fewer and fewer non-fastballs for strikes. Breaking and offspeed stuff was in the zone 43.3 percent of the time in 2018, but just 41.6 percent of the time in 2019, and 41.3 percent of the time during the shortened first pandemic season.

 

Johnson, though, seems to want his pitchers to find the zone with non-fastballs on a more regular basis. The Twins hired him after the 2018 season, in which their pitchers threw just 39.5 percent of their non-heat for strikes. That was dead last in baseball. In 2019, though, they bumped up to 22nd, at 41.0 percent. Last year, with newcomers Matt Wisler and Kenta Maeda leading the way by leaning heavily on their breaking stuff but still filling up the zone, the Twins were fourth in MLB, at 43.4 percent of non-fastballs for strikes.

 

That’s a phenomenal turnaround, and captures the impressiveness of Johnson pretty neatly. The Twins’ pitching development infrastructure is good at several things, but this is one we hadn’t previously been able to identify and articulate.

 

The advantages are obvious. A profile like the one that made Wisler successful last year (success which, perhaps, the Twins are hoping to replicate this year with new blood) doesn’t work if the approach involves throwing the slider only as a chase pitch. A hurler who can demonstrate the feel to reshape and locate their breaking ball or changeup based on the count and the opposing hitter is extremely valuable.

 

Executing this strategy isn’t easy. It requires the team to scope out and acquire pitchers who do a difficult, somewhat rare thing well. It puts considerable pressure on their minor-league pitching coaches and coordinators, whom Johnson apparently tasks with getting talented young pitchers over a very advanced hump before they matriculate to the majors.

 

Nor is it the case that throwing more breaking balls and changeups for strikes is a universal good. The Dodgers were tops in baseball last year in throwing non-fastballs in the zone, but the two teams between them and the Twins (the Angels and Red Sox) were not pitching staffs of similar quality. Meanwhile, the excellent Rays and Brewers pitching staffs finished near the bottom of the league in this regard.

 

More than anything, then, Johnson is merely tipping us off to an organizational preference, when he talks about this. You can get a clear sense of the Twins’ style, and learn what to look for from a pitcher the team might be attempting to develop or acquire, but you can’t say for sure whether or not it will work. Even so, it’s nice to have the insight—whether Johnson meant to share as much or not.

 

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[Fatbat]

The only thing better than a swinging strikeout at a pitch out of the zone, is a call 3rd strike on a pitch on the corner that freezes the batter.

[LylesCrocodiles]

So what is the league average FB rate for strikes? 70 percent?

[ashbury]

"Throw strikes but don't give him anything good to hit." I think that strategy has been around a while.

 

This was a nice drill-down on the basic notion.

 

[old nurse]

Throw strikes. One Rick Anderson used to say that,

[Richard Swerdlick]

As Ray Miller used to say, " Work fast, change speeds, throw strikes".

[Linus]

As Ray Miller used to say, " Work fast, change speeds, throw strikes".

Except now it is “take your time and throw as hard as you can. You are only going to be in there for a short time”.

[Trov]

Throwing breaking pitches in the zone does not mean throwing hung breaking pitches in the zone.  The old term, pitching backwards comes to mind.  If you can throw a breaking pitch early in count for a strike hitter is more likely to take it.  Then later in at bat you can throw fast ball for strike when ahead in the count, or breaking pitch out of zone for a hopeful chase. 

 

The reason sliders are in right now is they are about same speed as fastballs, but with movement.  The hope is hitter cannot tell it is a slider, I know Buxton never can tell a slider away is a slider and always thinks it is a fastball. However, if you never can get them for strikes hitters will try to sit on fastballs all the time. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

If the first half of spring training is any indication, 2021 might favor pitchers overall as 2020 did -- and we might see yet another record strikeout rate.

 

2021 spring training:

.246/.337/.420, 24.7% K

 

2020 regular season:

.245/.322/.418, 23.4% K

 

By comparison, here was 2019's numbers.

 

2019 spring training:

.261/.333/.438, 22.3% K

 

2019 regular season (non-pitchers):

.256/.327/.443, 22.4% K

[Taildragger8791]

 

Throw strikes. One Rick Anderson used to say that,

 

Difference here being that Wes Anderson wants a certain profile & quality of pitches thrown for strikes.

[USAFChief]

I think what Johnson meant was the ABILITY to throw strikes, when wanted, with pitches other than FBs.

 

Command. Drop the slider in for a strike, then just off the low outside corner. On command.