Report from The Fort: Byron Buxton Talking Contract Extension?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Even a halfway decent / halfway healthy Buxton season in 2022 (or beyond) would warrant $19 mil QO consideration. ZiPS projects him for 2.7 fWAR this year in only 397 PA at 104 wRC+. Another point suggesting he may not be willing to sell his 2023-2024 services for $30 mil combined.

[AlwaysinModeration]

What's the minimum you think Buxton can reasonably expect on the open market for his age 29 season?

Tom Tango had an open source thread for years (before getting hired by an MLB team) spelling out in pretty clear terms how free agent contracts are derived. It starts by figuring out what the baseline WAR a player produces per year at their maximum, prime year production (27-28 years old, mostly). For most free agents, they are starting decline phase, and so you need to discount that max value by 0.5 WAR per year. Then you figure out the going rate in free agency per WAR, and you can figure out how much a player contract might be.

 

The real key is figuring out the baseline WAR. Buxton maxed out at 3.6 WAR on Fangraphs at age 23, and was listed at 5.0 WAR on BBref for the same year. But he’s totaled between 8-10 WAR over the past 4 years on those sites (granted last year was a short year); 2-2.5 WAR per year.

 

I think the most you could reasonably peg him at is 3.5 WAR for his age 27 and 28 seasons. That would drop to 3 WAR for his age 29 season. So to answer your precise question, at $8mm/WAR, he could expect a $24mm salary for his age 29 season when he hits free agency.

 

Of course, his age 30 season would be less; discount to 2.5WAR, or 8x2.5=$20mm. 31 would be 2WAR/16, and age 32 would be 1.5WAR/12.

 

So a four year free agent contract for Buck (for his age 29-32 seasons) would be 4/72, or $18 per year.

 

Full value for Buck, using these calculations, including his last two arb years and two years of free agency, would be 5/10/24/20=59.

[Dman]

 

Tom Tango had an open source thread for years (before getting hired by an MLB team) spelling out in pretty clear terms how free agent contracts are derived. It starts by figuring out what the baseline WAR a player produces per year at their maximum, prime year production (27-28 years old, mostly). For most free agents, they are starting decline phase, and so you need to discount that max value by 0.5 WAR per year. Then you figure out the going rate in free agency per WAR, and you can figure out how much a player contract might be.

The real key is figuring out the baseline WAR. Buxton maxed out at 3.6 WAR on Fangraphs at age 23, and was listed at 5.0 WAR on BBref for the same year. But he’s totaled between 8-10 WAR over the past 4 years on those sites (granted last year was a short year); 2-2.5 WAR per year.

I think the most you could reasonably peg him at is 3.5 WAR for his age 27 and 28 seasons. That would drop to 3 WAR for his age 29 season. So to answer your precise question, at $8mm/WAR, he could expect a $24mm salary for his age 29 season when he hits free agency.

Of course, his age 30 season would be less; discount to 2.5WAR, or 8x2.5=$20mm. 31 would be 2WAR/16, and age 32 would be 1.5WAR/12.

So a four year free agent contract for Buck (for his age 29-32 seasons) would be 4/72, or $18 per year.

Full value for Buck, using these calculations, including his last two arb years and two years of free agency, would be 5/10/24/20=59.

 

I like that calculation but I think you also have to bank on the fact that Buxton will be hurt at some point every season and for taking on that risk I think the Twins would look for a bit of a discount to those numbers as well.

 

He has had some concussions and we know what those did to Mauer and Morneau.  His shoulder issue is not a small thing either and he has had wrist issues as well.  I think there is a reason they are coming to the table here.  HIs injuries could sink him in a hurry. 

 

IMO Buxtons value lies between Jackie Bradley Jr. Level production to George Springer level production.  Jackie got 12M AAV and Springer 25 AAV but the contract was front loaded and ends up more like 22.5 AAV.  Your Calc for Buxton at 18AAV settles him right in the middle.  Personally I think that is a number that gets it done but I am not his agent.  I think the Twins would like to hedge and keep that number lower mainly because of injury risk but I guess we will have to wait and see.

 

I think your number is a good starting point though so let the negotiations begin.

[AlwaysinModeration]

I like that calculation but I think you also have to bank on the fact that Buxton will be hurt at some point every season and for taking on that risk I think the Twins would look for a bit of a discount to those numbers as well.

 

He has had some concussions and we know what those did to Mauer and Morneau. His shoulder issue is not a small thing either and he has had wrist issues as well. I think there is a reason they are coming to the table here. HIs injuries could sink him in a hurry.

 

I think your number is a good starting point though so let the negotiations begin.

I agree, I don’t think the Twins should give him the full 4/59 value—injury discounts would need to be factored in. Spycake just noted that ZIPs peg him at 2.7WAR over 397 ABs. I think that 397ABs is in part reflecting the risk he won’t be in the field 100% due to injuries. Steamer has him at 3WAR (but 530 ABs). So maybe my estimate of 3.5WAR for his 27/28 year season is a bit high. If he is at 3WAR for 27/28, and 2.5 WAR at 29 and 2 WAR at 30, those last two seasons are worth $36mm, making the extension 5/9/20/16=4/50.

 

Anyway, four years, somewhere between 50 and 55mm seems like a good guess.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Tom Tango had an open source thread for years (before getting hired by an MLB team) spelling out in pretty clear terms how free agent contracts are derived.

Yes, I know about $/WAR estimates. That's not quite was I was asking, although it's a decent rule of thumb for estimating long-term FA contracts. I specifically asked about the minimum Buxton could get for his age-29 season.

 

Matt Harvey didn't get $11 mil in 2019 because the Angels though he'd produce 1.4 WAR in his age-30 season. Josh Donaldson didn't get $23 mil from the Braves in 2019 because they thought he'd produce 2.9 WAR. Short-term contracts can be as much about betting on upside potential as anything else. Teams want to *beat* $8 mil per WAR whenever possible, and there's no better way to do that on the FA market than short-term deals for big talents with a few question marks. And Buxton, with his skills and what he's shown through age 26, has a very good chance to be an attractive target for those upside bets entering his age-29 season, even if scuffles through the next two years.

 

It's not hard to imagine that in such a scenario, Buxton could still find a taker for age 29-30 at Bradley Jr prices (2/24). And of course, with plenty of upside to earn a lot more -- both at age 29-30 and guarantees for age 31+ -- if he puts it together for a season before then, rather than just scuffling. Which suggests he's probably not too eager to sell those two seasons, and those two seasons alone, for $30 mil right now.