Report from The Fort: Byron Buxton Talking Contract Extension?

[John Bonnes]

FORT MYERS - Today, Byron Buxton revealed his agent discussed a contract extension with the Twins earlier this week. What would a deal with Buxton look like and can it make sense for both sides?

 

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[DocBauer]

I really like this idea. There is mutual and equal risk/reward for both sides. Buxton is protected from further injury lowering his potential earnings while still gaining a great deal of financial security. Meanwhile, the Twins are betting he will be healthy enough to earn that $ and perhaps prove to be a bargain.

 

The recent contracts with Polanco, Kepler, Sano and this idea with Buxton is very forwarding thinking and may be the "new way" contracts will work in today's game. Of course, a new CBA may blow this idea completely up. And there will always be guys who put up insane numbers and are looking for and probably worth max dollars. And there will always be those who want to bet on themselves. But in a new financial world where teams no longer wish to hand out huge dollar values over 6-7+yr term deals...really only gaining a reward in production the first few seasons...this may be the smart play most often for both sides.

[Darius]

I’d love a Buxton extension. One of these years he’s going to stay healthy and be an MVP caliber guy, then the price tag goes way up.

 

I’d still be surprised to hear his side is willing to engage at a reasonable price given how unhappy he was about the service time thing. But, I’d love to be wrong.

[cHawk]

This team needs another star player or two to go along in the lineup with Nelly and (maybe) JD if they want to go far in October. Buxton has all of the potential in the world to be a star player. He’s been a great fielder who has began to put up above average offensive numbers. (.345 wOBA, 118 wRC+ in 2020)

 

Please do it.

[ashbury]

I said in another thread I'd be surprised if Byron was receptive, but I'm all for the discussion to take place.

[jmlease1]

I love watching Buxton play so much, I hope they can work out a deal so he's here a long time. We will see? I think it does make a fair amount of sense for everyone to entertain it, so here's hoping!

[Shaitan]

 

I’d love a Buxton extension. One of these years he’s going to stay healthy and be an MVP caliber guy, then the price tag goes way up.

I’d still be surprised to hear his side is willing to engage at a reasonable price given how unhappy he was about the service time thing. But, I’d love to be wrong.

 

Exactly. If he's willing to listen, engage. 

 

Otherwise we're talking Mauer 2009 when you have to pay max year. (And Mauer was also "always hurt" prior to that contract.)

[Thegrin]

If Buck signs, I bet Berrios is next. 

[yeahyabetcha]

The reality is that his major league production has been underwhelming. I lean towards seeing what he does this year before extending him.

[TL]

He should be willing to sign for something reasonable given his injury history, and his advisors should be pushing him to. Risk is too great he never can stay healthy enough and/or injuries sap his abilities. No need to risk *having* to work for the rest of your life when you can guarantee riches for your family (and their families) right now.

[heresthething]

Given how the last few years of FA contracts have been going I suspect the next CBA the owners are going to get much closer to some type of salary floor AND cap.  To accomplish that the owners will need to give up some years of control which I think they will do.  In this scenario we will see more players available every year and teams will go for even more of the shorter contracts because the FA quality pool will be wider and deeper every year.  Nothing wrong with betting on yourself but players will also need to understand that the turnover and deeper FA pool can actually reduce their leverage.  All of this is to say IMO if I'm Buxton or Berrios I would strongly consider trying to get something done now.

[Doctor Gast]

Great that they're willing to negotiate. He's beefed up, Let's get it done.

[HrbieFan]

Getter done! Hope they can buy out 2 FA years

[saviking]

A lot of risk comes with signing Buxton to a long term contract due to his injury history. I'm not saying, don't do it, but the safest move would be to trade him for a bundle ..

[ashbury]

A lot of risk comes with signing Buxton to a long term contract due to his injury history. I'm not saying, don't do it, but the safest move would be to trade him for a bundle ..

And if the other teams see the same risks the same way, and the bundle offered isn't very big...?

 

[PseudoSABR]

There's a lot of risk in not signing him to a long term deal now.  If he merely stays healthy this year, his leverage will sky rocket.  Sign him now; his talent is worth the risk of injury. 

[wabene]

It's interesting to me that this is happening now with Buxton and Berrios. The perception was Sano wanted to go to NY, that Berrios wouldn't sign and the Buxton would be angry about the service time thing and also would be gone. Now it appears things are pretty rosie in that clubhouse and this is one happy team.I guess this turns the Minnesota Sports Insecurity Syndrome on it's head. I'm glad because I get tired of hearing it. So we've got a beautiful ballpark, beautiful Minnesota summers and a team that is a joy to follow on all levels. I think you have to credit this front office, the coaches and JP for this turn of events.

[The Wise One]

 

Exactly. If he's willing to listen, engage. 

 

Otherwise we're talking Mauer 2009 when you have to pay max year. (And Mauer was also "always hurt" prior to that contract.)

The "always injured" Mauer after his rookie season averaged playing over 110 games a season at catcher while DH about 20 times a year. That is far different than Buxton. There is no comparison to what Mauer produced at his position compared to Buxton. 

[MNT1996]

I'm not in favor of a contract extension right now. Buxton has yet to prove he can stay consistently healthy and at the same time provide consistent offensive output. We know he is a great defender, but that is really the only part of his game that has been steady over the years. A long term extension would be extremely risky.

 

I think they should evaluate his performance after this year and make a decision based on that.

[jrod23]

I love watching Buxton when he's on just as everyone else.  His inability to stay on the field vs. what he does when he is on the field and playing great is the reason I don't see either side coming to an agreement.

[se7799]

Sign him, lock him up for 5 years. He's had some bad luck. I'm predicting top 3 in mvp votes this year. He won't break the bank if we sign him now. Money well spent

[jkcarew]

I would hope the Twins make an offer commensurate with a talented and valuable defensive player who is often injured and who hasn’t yet proven to be valuable offensively. Last year was a short sample with wildly unsustainable small-sample ISO and HR/FB numbers...the career offensive numbers speak for themselves...and was already so broken at the end of last season that he was benched in the playoffs. So, that type of offer. If some club is still in love with the concept that is Byron Buxton, you trade him to that club. If not, I have no problem with a middling offer and hoping for the best.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Would be a no-brainer to try to extend Buxton. In answer to the question of what would make sense:

 

5 / 9 / 12 / 14 = 4/40

 

That would be buying out two years of free agency.

 

If he is a 2.5 WAR player, he would be worth 2.5/2/1.5/1 over the next four years = 7 WAR, at $8mm per WAR, he would get $56mm if he were a free agent.

 

Given that they kind of screwed him out of a year of service time, they should give him slightly more than 4/40, especially given his high upside (if healthy, he definitely can post north of 2.5 WAR.)

 

I’d say 4/44 might work. Added benefit: shows Kiriloff that after he loses a FA year by staying in St.Paul for April, he doesn’t have to worry that much about it.

[beckmt]

 

Would be a no-brainer to try to extend Buxton. In answer to the question of what would make sense:

5 / 9 / 12 / 14 = 4/40

That would be buying out two years of free agency.

If he is a 2.5 WAR player, he would be worth 2.5/2/1.5/1 over the next four years = 7 WAR, at $8mm per WAR, he would get $56mm if he were a free agent.

Given that they kind of screwed him out of a year of service time, they should give him slightly more than 4/40, especially given his high upside (if healthy, he definitely can post north of 2.5 WAR.)

I’d say 4/44 might work. Added benefit: shows Kiriloff that after he loses a FA year by staying in St.Paul for April, he doesn’t have to worry that much about it.

I think given the current situation, both above are low.  I would be looking more at 6/90 - 100.  Gives the Twins security (plus risk), and lets Buxton still explore the market before he is too old. I may be on the high side, but Twins have a lot of replaceable parts and players in the first 3 years at the start of this deal.  Let's get it done.

[Trov]

His contract is one of the hardest to figure out for long term.  He has never had a full healthy season, and even when he is healthy he has had such polarizing stretches as well.  His defense is best in the game, but that will regress as he loses some speed.  His long term value will greatly depend on both his health, and his ability to hit more consistently.  As he loses some speed he will have even less value on offense if he does not pick up his hitting overall. 

 

I would be open to a long term deal, but would not be willing to invest big money over long years for him.  I do not know the Twins thoughts, but I would not be willing to throw a number out until I had good idea on what his side is thinking.  Reason why is I would not want to insult him, but my thoughts would be 4 to 5 years for 10 to 12 mil a year max.  I would be willing to do more money per year with less years.  That is much less than what Springer just got at age 31, but it really limits the risk of injuries and regression of speed. 

 

My guess he will balk at that offer and will want closer to what Springer got.  Who knows though.  I still enjoy him as a player and hope his prime years put up huge numbers.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Would be a no-brainer to try to extend Buxton. In answer to the question of what would make sense:

5 / 9 / 12 / 14 = 4/40

That would be buying out two years of free agency.

If he is a 2.5 WAR player, he would be worth 2.5/2/1.5/1 over the next four years = 7 WAR, at $8mm per WAR, he would get $56mm if he were a free agent.

Given that they kind of screwed him out of a year of service time, they should give him slightly more than 4/40, especially given his high upside (if healthy, he definitely can post north of 2.5 WAR.)

I’d say 4/44 might work. Added benefit: shows Kiriloff that after he loses a FA year by staying in St.Paul for April, he doesn’t have to worry that much about it.

I don't know what this deal might look like, but I think these estimates are low.

 

Remember that Buxton already has the first $5.13 million guaranteed for this year's salary (assuming no COVID season interruptions). And he's mostly guaranteed another ~$8+ mil for next year in his final trip through arbitration, barring something unexpected. I noted in another thread that those years could pull down the AAV of an extension, but probably not down to 4/40 or 4/44.

 

4/44 is basically just tacking on 2/30 to those arb deals, for his age 29 and age 30 FA seasons. That seems like too little for Buxton to accept right now. With his all-around potential, I think some teams would still give him 1/10 type deals in FA for age 29 and then age 30, even if his next 2 years aren't that great/healthy. And of course, if he does manage to put it together for a year, he could get $80+ mil on a longer term deal. (And going year-to-year makes it easier for him to cash in on such a season too.)

 

This is one of the harder extensions to try to predict. I think if something happens, it would have to be north of $60 mil, albeit perhaps for a 5 year term rather than your proposed 4. Someone brought up the Hicks deal, which was a little weird (7 year term, signed 1 year before FA), but the total of $70 mil seems like it could be close to Buxton's desired guarantee right now?

[AlwaysinModeration]

So to revise a bit, he’d probably want an increase for this year (from 5.1 to 6):

 

6 / 10 / 13 / 16 = 4 / 45

 

Add in a fifth-year option for 20, with, let’s say, a $5mm buyout. The guarantee would be a nice round $50mm, with the Twins getting up to three FA years, and Buck making more than Polanco, Kepler or Sano. A nice commitment to Buxton from the team, mitigating some of his injury downside, but still plenty of possibility that he outperforms the value of the contract.

[nicksaviking]

 

I said in another thread I'd be surprised if Byron was receptive, but I'm all for the discussion to take place.

 

Previously it seemed like a situation where Buxton may have been happy to bet on himself and hit the free agent market, but considering the news of a possible extension came directly from Buxton's own lips, I'd guess he's receptive.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think they do it if they can. Like others, I'll be a bit surprised, but given the nature of contracts it's quite possible his agent is telling him to be smart here given how much he's been hurt.

 

I think you can safely say that a Buxton contract won't hamstring the team quite like Mauer did or like Donaldson could be... so yeah, do it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

So to revise a bit, he’d probably want an increase for this year (from 5.1 to 6):

6 / 10 / 13 / 16 = 4 / 45

Add in a fifth-year option for 20, with, let’s say, a $5mm buyout. The guarantee would be a nice round $50mm, with the Twins getting up to three FA years, and Buck making more than Polanco, Kepler or Sano. A nice commitment to Buxton from the team, mitigating some of his injury downside, but still plenty of possibility that he outperforms the value of the contract.

What's the minimum you think Buxton can reasonably expect on the open market for his age 29 season?

 

Even if he continues his recent mix of injuries/inconsistency over the next 2 years, I think some team would bet at least a 1/10 contract on his tools and potential for age 29. They might even repeat it for age 30. Keep in mind, Matt Harvey got $11 mil for his age 30 season, coming off pretty poor/unhealthy age 27-28-29 seasons. $10 mil is not that much for a team to risk on a short-term deal for potential high-end, near-prime-age talent. And Buxton has the added benefit of being a position player rather than a pitcher, meaning missed time is less likely to affect how much he can play the following season. (A pitcher that misses most of a season is often going to be on a innings limit or in the bullpen the following year.)

 

And that's what the Twins have to bid against right now. Buxton could pretty easily make $34+ mil over the next 4 years without ever fulfilling his potential; if he does fulfill his potential in any one of those seasons, he could parlay that into a $19 mil qualifying offer for a single season, and/or an $80+ mil FA contract.

 

I think it would be difficult for the Twins to buy that out for just 4/50 right now.