AL Central Rundown: Relievers

[Matthew Lenz]

For this installment of the series, we will take a look at the top three relievers in each bullpen. The White Sox added the best reliever in baseball, but do they have the best bullpen in the division? Let’s find out.The Rundown

Reliever is arguably the hardest position to predict or project, as a vast majority of elite relievers have very short life span, and even if you’re not elite your results can vary pretty drastically from year to year. The Twins are all too familiar with this as Taylor Rogers was one of the best relievers in baseball in 2019 but then really struggled in 2020. On the other hand, Tyler Duffey was very good in 2019 and had an even better 2020 season.

 

Now that’s not to say that relievers cannot be counted on from year to year. Over the last couple of seasons the Twins have relied on sturdy veterans like Tyler Clippard and Sergio Romo who have a combined 24 seasons of relief experience and have accrued 19.4 fWAR between them.

 

With all of that said, I will be utilizing savant profiles and projection models (i.e. ZiPS and Steamer) more than previous statistics to preview and grade the top 3-4 arms in each American League Central team's bullpen. It’s not exact science but I think those resources will provide a better idea than past results. Let’s dive in.

 

Detroit Tigers

As is the new norm, Steamer projects the Tigers using a rotation at closer that might also include Joe Jiminez, although he’s never been overly effective in his career. The Tigers do have some up and coming starters, but their bullpen isn’t going to be good in 2021 and is headlined by Buck Farmer, Bryan Garcia, and Gregory Soto. Check out their 2020 savant profiles below...it ain’t pretty.

Download attachment: Tigers.png

 

Farmer’s 2020 savant profile doesn’t quite do him justice as he’s more capable of missing bats than his 10th percentile ranking would indicate, while also being more susceptible to walks. His fastball was about two miles-per-hour slower than in 2019 and he pounded the zone a bit more in 2020, which when put together may be why hitters hit him hard last season.

 

Garcia has thrown a total of 461 pitches at the big league level which makes him dually hard to project, but one thing that is clear is that control is always an issue of his. He was successful in 2020 by allowing a lot of soft contact and ground balls, but hitters will quickly learn to make him throw strikes which could be troublesome if he’s not able to locate his pitches on the edges of the zone.

 

Soto is Garcia except with much, much better “stuff”. He has a smaller sample size than Soto and has produced markedly different results in two years as a pro. He was downright awful in 2019 but then showed some promise in 2020 with an xERA of 3.70 and dropping his opponent xwOBA by 100 points. If he can reign in the walks, which neither ZiPS or Steamer project him to do in 2020, he could be their best reliever.

 

Cleveland

On paper you might look at the Cleveland bullpen and, aside from James Karinchak, ask ‘who’?? And although Cleveland is at the early stages of their sudden rebuild, their bullpen is actually still in decent shape. It’s not the dominant Cleveland bullpen we’ve come accustomed to over the last few years, but I think they’ll be better than they look if you go by name recognition.

Download attachment: Indians.png

 

It will be interesting to see how Karinchak’s career develops over the next few years. At only 25 years old and just 32.1 innings under his belt, his lack of control has been an issue from the time he entered the Cleveland organization in 2017. Despite this, he consistently posted beyond elite strikeout numbers and flew through the system debuting at the end of 2019. Even considering his elite whiff and contact rates, you have to wonder if hitters will start challenging him to throw strikes and how he will respond.

 

I was somewhat surprised when I saw Maton’s Savant profile as compared to his previous statistics. In his four year career, his numbers are mostly pedestrian despite his Savant profile ranking him in the 80th and 90th percentiles nearly across the board. His projections would agree has all of them have him posting career best numbers this year.

 

Clase missed 2020 due to a PED suspension but threw 23.1 efficient innings in 2019. The 22-year-old rookie will be a force to be reckoned with as he can consistently pump triple digits and does so while limiting walks, but not creating the strikeouts you might assume. Most of his projections have him striking out one batter inning, but you have to think the organization that has developed some elite pitchers in recent years will change that.

 

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox already had a solid bullpen in 2020 and then went and added the best reliever in the game in Liam Hendriks. Before teams get to Hendriks they will have to first get through the formidable duo of Aaron Bummer and Evan Marshall along with other very capable relievers.

Download attachment: White Sox.png

 

We know Hendriks is very good, and he has been covered well by our Twins Daily crew this offseason. In lieu of restating others' work, feel free to revisit these articles…

• Why Did the Twins Let Liam Hendriks Go? by Cody Christie
• Potential Twins Bullpen Target: Liam Hendriks by Andrew Thares

...while also remembering the article I linked earlier on why I was okay with missing out in Hendriks.

 

Bummer missed the majority of the 2020 season with left biceps soreness which is why I used his 2019 savant profile. He’s a hard throwing lefty who doesn’t generate a lot of whiffs and will need to limit walks to reach his full potential. His projections show some regression from 2019 as his expected values (xBA, xSLG, xwOBA) don’t quite match his contact rates. Nonetheless, he’ll still be a solid option to bridge the gap between the starter and Marshall/Hendriks.

 

It’s taken a while for Marshall to get here, and he’s only been “here”...read as ‘a very good reliever’....for the last 35 innings of his career outside of a hot start to the 2019 season. Although his Savant profile is impressive, most of his projections have him regressing a little bit on his 2020 numbers striking out fewer batters while walking more.

 

Kansas City Royals

The Royals bullpen is going to be a rough one this year although they do have some decent arms to close out games. They are lead by Scott Barlow, Greg Holland, and Josh Staumont but after that it gets pretty thin quick. Their prospect pool at pitcher is extremely deep and many are projected to make their debuts in 2021, so it’s possible they temporarily convert a couple of their arms to relievers.

Download attachment: Royals.png

 

Barlow has been a solid yet unspectacular reliever for the Royals over the last three seasons. He has a nice fastball, slider mix that he can locate while striking out a good amount of batters. He can be a little susceptible to the long ball for a reliever, but might be the most reliable arm they have heading into 2021 as his projects to be their best reliever.

 

Holland had a really nice 2020 season that is supported by his Savant profile. I’m surprised to see that all of the projections model show a considerable regression in his ERA and FIP, although his 2020 groundball and home run rates weren’t totally inline with his career norms which could partially affect this. He’s lost considerable umph from his fastball over the years as he now sits low-90’s and has become more reliant on his slider.

 

I feel like I’ve profiled Staumont already when I wrote up my blurb on Karinchak. He throws hard, generates lots of whiffs but walks way too many batters and, like Karinchak, if he can reign in the walks he would immediately become one of the best relievers in the game. I imagine an improvement in walk rates is hard to project as it requires a concentrated change in mechanics, pitch selection, and/or mindset that isn’t really possible to predict. That said, his projections have his flyball tendencies catchuping to him, allowing more homeruns, not improving his walk rate, and ultimately allowing too many baserunners and runs.

 

Minnesota Twins

I’m going to take a little bit of a different take on the Twins part of this article as we already have a lot of great resources for you to read about. In short, the Twins have the depth to put pitchers in spots that they can succeed with the additions of Alex Colomé and Hansel Robles and have significantly improved one of the best bullpens in baseball.

Download attachment: Twins.png

 

Parker Hageman provided really good insight on Colomé here and here. Although written back in August, Matthew Trueblood did an excellent job of dissecting Taylor Rogers issues in 2020 here. Cooper Carlson and JD Cameron wrote quick hitters in Robles here and here, respectively.

 

Duffey, who was recently ranked the 9th best reliever by MLB Network, isn’t getting the love from Twins Daily-ers. In reality, it’s more likely the writers at Twins Daily were ahead of the curve on identifying him as one of baseball’s best relievers in 2019 and haven’t needed to publish articles convincing the Twins fans otherwise. The projections do show some regression, but I think it can’t be understated how the Twins will be able to put their best relievers in the best positions this year. I expect another outstanding season from the Duff.

 

If you want to take a look at the other names you’ll see pitch in 2021, I projected the Twins bullpen here, which was after the Colomé and Robles signings, but before it was announced that Thorpe was granted a fourth option.

 

Grade ‘Em

I didn’t cover every name in every bullpen...this article was long enough! That said, feel free to check out the ZiPS and Steamer projections to see how the rest of the bullpen fares for each team!

 

Detroit Tigers: D

The Tigers bullpen doesn’t look pretty but they do have some youn arms with upside that were mentioned in this article, which is really what you need as a non-competitive team.

 

Cleveland: C+

It’s interesting to me that Cleveland is going to have a solid bullpen heading into 2021 despite no plans of competing. I mean I understand that your entire team can’t be awful, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see someone like Maton dealt at the deadline if he’s having a good year.

 

Chicago White Sox: A-

The only thing keeping this bullpen from an A are some of the question marks I mentioned surround Marshall and Bummer. That said, even if those two were to falter the White Sox have plenty of weapons to be one of the best bullpens in baseball. Although they lack depth at just about every position, they excel in their bullpen with the likes of Jimmy Cordero, Codi Heuer, and top 100 prospect Garret Crochet at the front end. The one thing I will say is this...Colomé was very good for them over the last two seasons so although Hendriks is inarguably an upgrade, it’s not like they were relying on Fernando Rodney to close out games.

 

Kansas City Royals: C-

The top end of the Royals bullpen doesn’t look too bad with the aforementioned names, especially if Staumont can clean things up a bit. They do have some nice pieces to fill-in the gaps with Kyle Zimmer, and like I mentioned before, have enough pitching prospects that we could see them enter the mix at some point this year.

 

Minnesota Twins: B+

I still question the front end of the Twins bullpen and, even at the back end, Hansel Robles isn’t guaranteed to bounce back to his 2019 form. Stashak has been serviceable but has only pitched 40 big league innings while everything says Alcala and Thielbar are legit but again that was only over 20 and 24 innings, respectively. I’m not counting on significant regression from the aforementioned names but that’s what kept them from grading out to an A- for me.

How do you feel about the White Sox and Twins bullpens heading into the season?

 

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[Fatbat]

I believe the twins are legit 13 deep in RPs. Throw in Wes Johnson and the analytics. Twins will show a solid A thru out 2021.

[4twinsJA]

Think Twins have a lot of potential BP depth and FO has done good job of acquiring that potential depth. I know teams are moving to closer by committee, But I still prefer one dominant closer, problem is they are rare-so teams moving to committee approach. Time will tell how potential develops.

[MNT1996]

I think a B+ is generous given Rogers and Robles struggles last year along with the unpredictability of Alcala and Stashak. 

[Doctor Gast]

I believe the twins are legit 13 deep in RPs. Throw in Wes Johnson and the analytics. Twins will show a solid A thru out 2021.

I agree with you fat

 

I believe the twins are legit 13 deep in RPs. Throw in Wes Johnson and the analytics. Twins will show a solid A thru out 2021.

I agree with you fatbat. You can't doubt Wes Johnson, Twins a solid A. Also I'd rate CLE much higher, their coaching staff does wonders. Emmanuel Clase is very electric

[mikelink45]

I give the Twins a C+.  I know it is not a popular thing, but we do tend to over grade on familiarity.  The White Sox are A-, Cleveland is a C and the Tigers and KC are where they should be.  Do not spend on BP until the team is ready to win.  So Tigers D and KC C-.

 

Thanks for the summary.  My issue is that in a league that now uses the BP as much or more than SP three arms are not enough to judge. 

[jun]

May, Clippard, Wisler and Romo are gone. Colome and Robles are here now. Robles really struggled last season. I would only give this bullpen a C.

[cHawk]

Are we certain that Robles is an improvement? We can’t be sure that he is going to bounce back and be like 2019. This bullpen could be very good or very weak. Unfortunately, I have a feeling Rocco will burn it up by July. (I hope I’m wrong)

[jud6312]

13 deep? Really?

[DocBauer]

I'm not certain how I feel about the pen right now. I trust the FO and Johnson and how they have developed the pen each year thus far. I look at last year's group compared to now and I have to ask myself if the guys on hand are as good, better, or worse?

 

I trust in Duffey, Colome and a bounceback from Rogers. I look at Robles's career and wonder how we can't expect good things bouncing back from 2020?

 

May and Romo are replaced by Colome and Robles. I guess I feel this is a wash. I'm OK there.

 

I think Stashak looks good and really liked the way Thielbar performed.

 

My quandary comes beyond that. Can we replace what Clippard did? Does someone step forward and continue to develop? Alcala looks like he has a shot to be a difference maker. There are options, rotating options at that, to fill out long relief at least. There is a difference between quality vs quantity and I get that. But from Anderson to Hamilton and the rest of the invites that should make up the St Paul pen, there are about 7 guys all mid to late 20's that offer some intrigue in their stuff if unlocked. Some even have at least a little ML experience.

 

Right now, all things considered, I'm going with a solid B+ to begin the year with easy potential to be an "A".