AL Central Rundown: Center Field

[Andrew Thares]

As we move forward in the AL Central Rundown series, our next look will be at center fielders across the division. Coming off a couple strong seasons, it’s worth asking is Byron Buxton the best center fielder in the AL Central, or will somebody else reign supreme in 2021?The Rundown

 

Center field is a position filled with youth in the AL Central, as the average age of the five projected starting center fielders within the division is just under 27-years-old. Throughout the division, there is a good mix of superstar upside, and solid everyday starter. However, there is also a lot of risk at the position and projecting what kind of season most of these players will have in 2021 will be quite difficult.

 

When it is all said and done, the AL Central will likely come down to the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox in a heated battle down the stretch. So, it is only fitting that the biggest X-Factor on each of these teams will come from the same position, in center fielders Byron Buxton and Luis Robert. How these two players perform this season will have a massive impact on deciding the winner of the division.

 

Detroit Tigers

 

In a very small sample of just 30 games a season ago, Detroit Tigers center fielder Jacoby Jones finally broke out with the bat, as he had a very impressive 126 wRC+. A big reason for this was the power he displayed, as 14 of his 26 hits went for extra bases. After taking small steps forward with the bat in 2018 and 2019, 2020 was a big leap forward. However, when diving a little deeper into the numbers, it seems as though Jones benefited greatly from the small sample of just 108 plate appearances.

 

When looking at such a small sample, it is often beneficial to rely more heavily on what the Statcast metrics say, rather than the results-based metrics, as they tend to normalize more quickly. One thing that stands out is how much worse Statcast said he should have performed than he actually did. For starters, while Jones had a wOBA of .353, his expected wOBA was just .308. For reference, that is roughly the difference, offensively, between Justin Morneau (career .353 wOBA) and Jason Castro (career .308 wOBA). Jones will need to prove himself on a much larger sample in 2021 before I start to believe that he is a much-improved hitter.

 

Cleveland

 

Oscar Mercado put up a strong rookie performance in 2019 with Cleveland, as he hit .269 with a wRC+ of 96. He was also a strong defender in the outfield, finishing 28th among the 133 qualified outfielders with 5 Outs Above Average defensively. However, that all changed in what was an awful 2020 campaign at the plate. In 93 plate appearances, Mercado hit just .128 with two extra base hits, and a wRC+ of -11. Yes, you read that right, negative 11.

 

While all 2020 performances should be taken with a grain of salt, this performance was especially bad. It was also strangely reminiscent of Byron Buxton’s awful 2018 season, where Buxton had just 94 plate appearances and hit .158 with a wRC+ of -2. It is hard to believe that Mercado will be this bad again in 2021, so even a decently below average season from him would bring a massive upgrade to the Cleveland lineup from a year ago.

 

Chicago White

 

2020 marked the anticipated debut of one of the game’s most highly touted prospects in Luis Robert. From day one it was evident that he had a skill set that has rarely been seen in the game. The first thing that was evident was how hard Robert was able to hit the ball when he squared it up. During 2020, Robert put 10 balls in play with an exit velocity of greater than 110 MPH, and despite weighing in at about 90 pounds less than Miguel Sano, Robert was able to match Sano in maximum exit velocity at 115.8 MPH.

 

The other thing that is apparent is the physical tools Robert possesses in the outfield. While Robert isn’t Byron Buxton fast (but I mean who is), he can still fly, as his average sprint speed of 29.1 feet per second ranked in the 96th percentile across Major League Baseball in 2020. Robert also has a cannon for an arm that truly gives him a complete athletic tool set.

 

While Robert is arguably one of the best, if not the best, athlete in the game today, it takes a lot more than just best athlete on the diamond to be the best ball player. Sure, Robert had a strong rookie season, but there are a couple glaring holes in his game. The first is his swing and miss rate of 38.4%, which is Sano level bad. Additionally, when Robert did make contact, he had a tough time squaring it up, as his average exit velocity of 87.9 MPH ranked in just the 34th percentile across the league last season. If Robert wants to become a superstar in the game, he will need to improve in that area drastically.

 

Kansas City Royals

 

After spending his first seven MLB seasons with the Washington Nationals, Michael A. Taylor inked a one-year deal for $1.75 million this offseason with the Kansas City Royals. At 29-years-old, Taylor is the elder statesman of the AL Central center fielders. Back in 2017, Taylor was on the verge of breaking out as a rising star in the game. He was only 26 and was coming off a season where he put up a 3.1 fWAR season. However, that never came to be, as Taylor has been worth just 0.6 fWAR in the three seasons since, including -0.3 in 2020.

 

Not only has Taylor’s bat gone back to the well below average level it was prior to the 2017 season, but his superb defensive abilities have regressed from being among the best in the game, to right around league average. Given all of this, it is hard to expect that the Royals will get much more than roughly a replacement level player in 2021, which I guess is all they are paying for.

 

Minnesota Twins

 

After that awful 2018 season that I mentioned earlier, Byron Buxton has put together two very strong seasons, when he has been able to stay on the field that is. Buxton has always had the speed and the glove, but his biggest question mark was with the bat. During his first four seasons in the bigs, Buxton had an OPS of just .672. In the last two seasons, Buxton has turned that around, and posted a markedly improved OPS of .833.

 

Perhaps the main reason for this improvement has been Buxton’s ability to cut down on the strikeouts. During those first four seasons, Buxton had a strikeout rate of 31.7%. That number has dropped to a much more manageable 24.2% over the last two seasons. The other big improvement for Buxton has been in the power department. From 2015-2018, Buxton hit just 28 home runs in 306 games played. In very limited time during 2019 and 2020, Buxton has hit 23 home runs in just 126 games. With Buxton’s whole game starting to come together as he enters his prime, the big question mark for this season will be can he just stay health?

 

Grade ‘Em

 

Here is how Fangraph’s Steamer projection system has these players performing in 2021.

 

Download attachment: Screen Shot 2021-02-23 at 9.38.48 PM.png

 

Detroit Tigers: C

 

Jacoby Jones showed signs of a being an improved player in 2020, but he will need to continue that success over a much larger sample before I start believing that he is anything more than a slightly below average MLB center fielder.

 

Cleveland: C-

 

It was a very rough 2020 for Oscar Mercado, but I am not willing to give up on a young player that has shown promise as a result of one awful 30 game stretch. I believe there is a chance he can bounce back again in 2021.

 

Chicago White Sox: A-

 

Luis Robert has all the tools to be one of the best players in the game, but he will need to drastically improve on his swing and miss rate if he ever wants to become that player. However, he is still only 23-years-old, so he has plenty of time to continue to develop.

 

Kansas City Royals: D

 

There is little reason to believe that Michael A. Taylor will provide much, if any value to the Royals in 2021. However, with that franchise still being a few years away from competing, there won’t be a lot of pressure for him to perform.

 

Minnesota Twins: A-

 

Byron Buxton certainly has the skills to warrant a higher rating than an A-, but with the big question mark surrounding his health hanging over his head, it is hard to predict how many games Buxton will be on the field in 2021. Fingers crossed; this will be the year that Buxton can stay healthy and puts together the All-Star level season that we all know he is capable of.

 

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[gunnarthor]

Yeah, Buxton, if healthy, is the best CFer in the central. He already has one 5 WAR season under his belt and was on pace for that in both 2019 and 2020. But he has to stay healthy.

 

I think now that Lindor is gone, Robert is going to be my least favorite player in the central that I wish was a Twin. He's awesome.

[jkcarew]

I’m encouraged that many here feel Buxton has ‘arrived’ offensively. Still, can’t say I’m convinced. Finished last year a complete mess...and posted in the shortened season a completely unsustainable HR/FB.

 

IMO, both Robert and Buxton have much proving yet to do. But one of them will start the season at age 23. The other at 27.

[woolywoolhouse]

Wow... Robert's average sprint speed is 29.1mph? Considering Usain Bolt's fastest speed measured was 27.8mph, that's pretty good. And Robert is only in the 96th percentile? I had no idea so many major leaguers were faster than the world's fastest man. (I think you meant "29.1 feet per second.")

 

I'm really digging these "AL Central Rundowns." Buxton has to have at least one full good season in him, right? I obviously want more, but if everyone can gel together with the great years they are capable of having, 2021 could be special.

[bobs]

If Buxton is healthy....he might be the best CF in all of baseball.

[Channing1964]

Buxton is the best cf in MLB. I just pray for his health. If he ever plays a full season, nobody would argue the fact.

[mikelink45]

No one in this group is an A.  Until Byron can demonstrate that he can stay in the lineup he is a B.  Roberts looked like the best but then reality hit and he dropped quickly from amazing to average and probably still ranks a B. 

 

Cleveland gets a D.  Their outfield has been so bad that Eddie Rosario shines like a superstar.  The other two really haven't done anything and need to prove themselves.  I give KC and Detroit a D.  

 

This is the top ten list from MLB.com

Mike Trout, LAA (Last year: 1)
Cody Bellinger, LAD (2)
George Springer, TOR (3)
Alex Verdugo, BOS (not ranked)
Brandon Nimmo, NYM (9)
Kyle Lewis, SEA (NR)
Ramón Laureano, OAK (4)
Trent Grisham, SD (NR)
Starling Marte, MIA (6)
Byron Buxton, MIN (NR)

 

So Byron is still ranked the top ten and thus the best in the division, but do you really want to bet he stays ahead of Roberts?

[Trov]

Roberts could be great, but at least on offense he is going to have to show he can adjust to the league.  He started off super hot last year and by end of it was not looking too good.  He had a great first month plus 7 games of July, but his second month was terrible.  So who is the real Roberts?  Somewhere in between most likely, but teams clearly adjusted to him for the second month after video and scouting.  Will he adjust to them now or will he still struggle?  

 

I think he will bounce back and be a pain in the butt for years, but for how bad of a month he had if it was full season he would have got sent down most likely.  In his last 23 games of season he slashed .136/.237/.409 with tOPS+ of 18.  with K rate of 39.5%.  That is not someone to fear in a lineup.  His fielding has him average as well.  

 

If he is the August hitter he is MVP, if he is September hitter, he is hugely overpaid and should not even be in majors.  Last year is so hard to judge on, but it shows he has 2 months of MLB time and has two drastic different stat lines. 

[Andrew Thares]

 

Wow... Robert's average sprint speed is 29.1mph? Considering Usain Bolt's fastest speed measured was 27.8mph, that's pretty good. And Robert is only in the 96th percentile? I had no idea so many major leaguers were faster than the world's fastest man. (I think you meant "29.1 feet per second.")

 

I'm really digging these "AL Central Rundowns." Buxton has to have at least one full good season in him, right? I obviously want more, but if everyone can gel together with the great years they are capable of having, 2021 could be special.

Lol good catch on the MPH. I updated the article to the correct unit of measurement.