Article: Joe Mauer Hates Pop-Ups

[Brad Swanson]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1409-Joe-Mauer-Hates-Pop-Ups

[h2oface]

I gotta say....... sometimes I would rather see an infield fly ball than a double play grounder.

[Brad Swanson]

I gotta say....... sometimes I would rather see an infield fly ball than a double play grounder.

 

I will now open my sealed envelope to prove that I totally called this as the first comment.

 

 

That being said (drawn?), I guess a pop-up is better than a double play. I did not consider this.

[mnfanforlife]

I gotta say....... sometimes I would rather see an infield fly ball than a double play grounder.

 

I cannot think of ANY TIME that I would rather see my guys get doubled-up than an infield pop-up

[Twins Twerp]

I cannot think of ANY TIME that I would rather see my guys get doubled-up than an infield pop-up

 

My brother, my brother, my brother, people that hate on Mauer are...idiots. He has one of the smoothest swings you'll ever see and is a first ballot hall of famer, and you wish he would pop out more...dumb.

[Brad Swanson]

I used different samples for a few of the charts. The rate charts (IFFB/PA) used 2002-2012 data, which is all that FanGraphs has available. The volume chart used 2004-2012 data to mirror Mauer's career. Sorry for the terrible and embarrassing oversight.

[h2oface]

I don't see anyone "hating" on Mauer here, just observing that one out made in an AB is better than two. The only one making it personal and calling someone an "idiot" is a self professed "twerp"........... or......... can only twerps call another twerp a twerp, even though he calls himself a twerp?

[ThePuck]

I will now open my sealed envelope to prove that I totally called this as the first comment.

 

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3355[/ATTACH]

 

That being said (drawn?), I guess a pop-up is better than a double play. I did not consider this.

 

Nice article...good research...and it shows how great of a hitter he is..but, you're right of course, you had to know that the whole DP comment was coming right away...gotta pull the negative out first...those 4%-5% of PAs he hits into DPs is a really killer :-)

 

None of the great hitters today hit into DPs...especially those that make a lot of contact :-)

[twinsnorth49]

Nice article...good research...and it shows how great of a hitter he is..but, you're right of course, you had to know that the whole DP comment was coming right away...gotta pull the negative out first...those 4%-5% of PAs he hits into DPs is a really killer :-)

 

None of the great hitters today hit into DPs...especially those that make a lot of contact :-)

 

Exactly, I'm sure the Tigers are encouraging Miggy to change his approach, to mitigate all those DP's and hopefully pop out more often.

[nicksaviking]

I cannot think of ANY TIME that I would rather see my guys get doubled-up than an infield pop-up

 

How about in a tie game with no outs, bases loaded and the double play still gets the go-ahead run across. An infield pop-up scores nothing and the inning-ending double play is still intact for the next hitter.

 

I like reading about these unique stats, but I guess I'm more curious as to why Mauer struck out 88 times last year. It really never dawned on me that that number had increased so significantly until I read your passing comment.

 

That's way out of his norm, and he's approaching the unflattering 100k level. I like Mauer, I'm not bashing him, but what happened last year to drive up his K% to 13.7%? His contact percentage was only down .8% from his career average. However his swing percentage was at 35.4%, down from his career average of 37.3% and his swing percentage of pitches in the zone was 52.5%, down from his career average of 55.5%. It would seem to me that his seeming desire to be the most selctive hitter is actually driving his K% up.

[ThePuck]

How about in a tie game with no outs, bases loaded and the double play still gets the go-ahead run across. An infield pop-up scores nothing and the inning-ending double play is still intact for the next hitter.

 

I like reading about these unique stats, but I guess I'm more curious as to why Mauer struck out 88 times last year. It really never dawned on me that that number had increased so significantly until I read your passing comment.

 

That's way out of his norm, and he's approaching the unflattering 100k level. I like Mauer, I'm not bashing him, but what happened last year to drive up his K% to 13.7%? His contact percentage was only down .8% from his career average. However his swing percentage was at 35.4%, down from his career average of 37.3% and his swing percentage of pitches in the zone was 52.5%, down from his career average of 55.5%. It would seem to me that his seeming desire to be the most selctive hitter is actually driving his K% up.

 

yeah, he finally had more than 65Ks in a season. This one season is definitely showing a trend :-)

[nicksaviking]

yeah, he finally had more than 65Ks in a season. This one season is definitely showing a trend :-)

 

I didn't say anything about a trend, I simply wanted to know what changed last year.

[Nick Nelson]

Nice article...good research...and it shows how great of a hitter he is..but, you're right of course, you had to know that the whole DP comment was coming right away...gotta pull the negative out first...those 4%-5% of PAs he hits into DPs is a really killer :-)

 

None of the great hitters today hit into DPs...especially those that make a lot of contact :-)

 

Right. The flip side is that the hard grounders which sometimes turn into DPs also sometimes turn into singles through the hole and doubles down the line. Pop-ups rarely turn into anything but outs. No question you prefer a guy with this hitting profile.

[ThePuck]

I didn't say anything about a trend, I simply wanted to know what changed last year.

 

If I had to guess, and that's all it'd be, is he was probably feeling the pressure of constantly being told he needed to hit HRs and be the kind of hitter he really isn't and this was causing him to push. Or it could just be one of those things....you know...just turned out that way.

[AlwaysinModeration]

It appears to me that Mauer does a better job than most at making square contact (thus the high LD% and high BA, and when he does miss, he misses high on the ball at a much higher rate than the rest of the league.

 

While he is clearly a superstar and under appreciated, and ridiculous to even consider making suggestions to someone vastly better at hitting major league pitching than almost everone on the planet, I think that this article does demonstrate that it may be true that if he could move his contact point/target zone a bit lower on the ball, without sacrificing his LD%, he could swap out some ground balls for fly balls and therefore home runs, and be an even better hitter than he already is.

[ashbury]

> Mauer was the best in the AL last year at not making outs.

 

Among players with enough appearances, no one in the NL topped him either. No reason to include the qualifier; Mauer was the best last year at not making outs.

[Brad Swanson]

Quick, since Mauer entered the league in 2004, who has the most GIDPs? A billion points if you know. 2 billion if you look it up. I reward research.

[ThePuck]

Quick, since Mauer entered the league in 2004, who has the most GIDPs? A billion points if you know. 2 billion if you look it up. I reward research.

 

I'd guess Pujols

[Brad Swanson]

I'd guess Pujols

 

You'd be right, one billion points!

 

He is also first in WAR over that span. Mauer is 11th.

[Brad Swanson]

> Mauer was the best in the AL last year at not making outs.

 

Among players with enough appearances, no one in the NL topped him either. No reason to include the qualifier; Mauer was the best last year at not making outs.

 

Exactly, and that is what makes him such a great player.

[CDog]

I like reading about these unique stats, but I guess I'm more curious as to why Mauer struck out 88 times last year. It really never dawned on me that that number had increased so significantly until I read your passing comment.

 

That's way out of his norm, and he's approaching the unflattering 100k level. I like Mauer, I'm not bashing him, but what happened last year to drive up his K% to 13.7%? His contact percentage was only down .8% from his career average. However his swing percentage was at 35.4%, down from his career average of 37.3% and his swing percentage of pitches in the zone was 52.5%, down from his career average of 55.5%. It would seem to me that his seeming desire to be the most selctive hitter is actually driving his K% up.

 

It may not explain it entirely, but the whole league is striking out more. It may be (at least partly) due to pitchers being better at striking people out.

 

EDIT: I was surprised after actually looking, that Mauer's K-rate has actually increased over his career more slowly than the league K-rate. It certainly doesn't appear that way to the eye because he actually decreased it over the first several years and jumped each of the last two (as opposed to the league that has been on a steadier, smoother climb, obviously).

[Willihammer]

A similar thing. Joey Votto has only pulled one foul ball into the stands for his career.

[nicksaviking]

I saw a piece on the MLB network last night about the rise of the three true outcome hitters. They too made the arguement that even the high contact hitters were whiffing more as the rising tide lifts all ships.

 

Thiking about it, the rise of the three true outcome hitters does demonstrate why the Twins pitchers are decreasing in effectiveness also. The Twins pitchers don't have the ability to strike many guys out. Meanwhile they also are resistant to issuing walks, which in the three true outcome model is the lesser of the two evils. This leaves the HR as a higher probability for Twins pitchers than it likely would for other clubs.

[NotJoeBuck]

Whoa Whoa Whoa - in the "Batted Ball Rates" the league average adds up to 110%. Not to useful to compare against Mauer's breakdown which also oddly totals 102%.

 

What am I missing here?

[Brad Swanson]

Whoa Whoa Whoa - in the "Batted Ball Rates" the league average adds up to 110%. Not to useful to compare against Mauer's breakdown which also oddly totals 102%.

 

What am I missing here?

 

Sorry, IFFB% is actually a percentage of a percentage. So Mauer's 2% is 2% of his fly ball rate, not 2% of his batted balls.

 

So, if he had 100 batted balls and 25 were fly balls, and 1 of those was an infield fly, his FB% would be 25% and his IFFB% would be 4%.

[snepp]

What am I missing here?

 

Pop-ups are considered flyballs.

[Pius Jefferson]

I cannot think of ANY TIME that I would rather see my guys get doubled-up than an infield pop-up

 

A run scoring double play is better than a pop up.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

Nice article. This is why I love to read Twins Daily. Well-written, well-researched, and a little wit. Fun.

[Oldgoat_MN]

I saw a piece on the MLB network last night about the rise of the three true outcome hitters. They too made the arguement that even the high contact hitters were whiffing more as the rising tide lifts all ships.

 

Thiking about it, the rise of the three true outcome hitters does demonstrate why the Twins pitchers are decreasing in effectiveness also. The Twins pitchers don't have the ability to strike many guys out. Meanwhile they also are resistant to issuing walks, which in the three true outcome model is the lesser of the two evils. This leaves the HR as a higher probability for Twins pitchers than it likely would for other clubs.

Very interesting. Thanks for sharing. I did not see that segment.

I also believe you're correct to map that onto the Twins pitching staff. Makes me think (ouch).

[Brad Swanson]

Nice article. This is why I love to read Twins Daily. Well-written' date=' well-researched, and a little wit. Fun.[/quote']

 

This is very kind. Thank you for the feedback!