Article: The Blizzard of Oz

drjim · March 7, 2013

Did anyone catch Molitor's comments on Arcia?

He restated the concern about him showing up a little out of shape. But what really caught my attention was how Molitor broke down his approach. He said Arcia does most his damage early in counts and panics a little as he gets deeper in the count. That strikes me as a big deal and something that might take more time than we appreciate strictly from Arcia's numbers. He has clear talent but might be a little further away than I thought.

Brock Beauchamp · March 7, 2013

Did anyone catch Molitor's comments on Arcia?

He restated the concern about him showing up a little out of shape. But what really caught my attention was how Molitor broke down his approach. He said Arcia does most his damage early in counts and panics a little as he gets deeper in the count. That strikes me as a big deal and something that might take more time than we appreciate strictly from Arcia's numbers. He has clear talent but might be a little further away than I thought.

If anyone would be able to make that distinction, it'd be Molitor. A little concerning but not entirely unexpected given Arcia's stats and his rapid advance through the system at a young age.

twinsnorth49 · March 7, 2013

Damn, I can't believe I missed this thread. For what it's worth I think we're going a little overboard on the whole civil obedience thing, if someone can't take having their feet held to the fire for making fairy tale projections that can't logically be substantiated then they should think twice about posting such things.

I've read every post in here and really can't define much that could be interpreted as "personal attacks". I agree with some posters here that it is important to maintain the credibility of the site with properly researched and substantiated projections and ideas. Tossing out fantastic, fanboy predictions and trying to justify them as legitimate projections doesn't lend itself to this site being a place for reasoned, in-depth baseball analysis, it's just making stuff up.

kab21 · March 7, 2013

I thought there was a chance that Arcia could struggle with over aggressiveness in his first go around in the majors. These comments aren't necessarily the same but similar. On the other hand I have a feeling that Hicks will struggle with under aggressiveness and frustrate Twins fans. both should be good players eventually though.

diehardtwinsfan · March 7, 2013

Damn, I can't believe I missed this thread. For what it's worth I think we're going a little overboard on the whole civil obedience thing, if someone can't take having their feet held to the fire for making fairy tale projections that can't logically be substantiated then they should think twice about posting such things.

I've read every post in here and really can't define much that could be interpreted as "personal attacks". I agree with some posters here that it is important to maintain the credibility of the site with properly researched and substantiated projections and ideas. Tossing out fantastic, fanboy predictions and trying to justify them as legitimate projections doesn't lend itself to this site being a place for reasoned, in-depth baseball analysis, it's just making stuff.

I'll add to this. I get that personal attacks need to be monitored as it can drive away people. On the same token, reaction to that (i.e. the word police) can accomplish the same thing. I am not a mod here, and if I'm overstepping my bounds I apologize, but the offense in this thread struck me as more as people being too thin skinned when it came to their opinions being criticized than personal attacks.

TheLeviathan · March 7, 2013

FWIW guys, the issue I was being threatened with bans for was dropped very quickly after a few finer points were made. I like to believe the moderating police realized their error, hence the silence after this. If nothing else, this was a fine lesson in going too far in policing dialogue. So maybe something positive came out of it.

glunn · March 8, 2013

I'll add to this. I get that personal attacks need to be monitored as it can drive away people. On the same token, reaction to that (i.e. the word police) can accomplish the same thing. I am not a mod here, and if I'm overstepping my bounds I apologize, but the offense in this thread struck me as more as people being too thin skinned when it came to their opinions being criticized than personal attacks.

Believe it or not, he monitors spend considerable time discussing among themselves how best to minimize feuds and personal attacks while not impeding passionate debate. But let's be absolutely clear that you can be as forceful as you wish as long as you are attacking a wrong idea, without personally attacking another member. Example -- "I believe that Member X's position on Issue X is completely wrong,because ...." Then you can destroy the other poster's position point by point. This approach makes for interesting baseball reading, and leaves open the possibility that you may change people's minds. But if you refer to another poster's position as idiotic, then the possibility that he/she will be open to your point of view becomes nil, because you have suggested that he/she is an idiot. Even worse, the other poster will then be tempted to suggest that you are the idiot, then things often get out of hand.

This is not about policing words -- it's about keeping the focus on baseball and avoiding feuds that distract from that focus. There are plenty of places on the internet where people can shout at each other. TD is a place where we can passionately disagree, but we battle using evidence and reasoning.

Obviously, we had a situation in this thread where a poster was being irrational and it annoyed some folks. And for the most part, other members showed admirable restraint. But there were a couple of instances in which we sent out polite private messages in the hope of alerting members to our concerns. Some people may think of us as word police, but to the extent that such characterization is accurate, then we are the most tolerant police on the planet. We issue a few very polite warnings by way of private messages, and I have yet to encounter a situation where I have even considered threatening to ban someone.

Moderating is not an easy job. Like basketball referees, we don't want to call fouls unless we feel that we have to. We don't want to slow down the game. Fortunately, we are blessed with great members. Violations have been few and far between. And the overall quality of the posts has been excellent. So please feel free to tell us how you think that we could do better, taking into account that no one paid for us to go to moderator school.

Celebrity Weddings! · March 8, 2013

The irritating thing about people associated with the team telling writers that a minor leaguer showed up out of shape is that it's too easy to make jumps about a player's attitude or diligence. Arcia got nearly 200 plate appearances in Venezuela this winter and slugged .475, so it's not like he decided that a good AA season meant there wasn't any more work to be done so he could sit around and get a headstart spending his future MLB earnings on cheeseburgers. It means he's a pretty big 21 year old who's still figuring out how his body works.

TheLeviathan · March 8, 2013

All well and good Glunn but no matter how politely a threat is issued it is still a threat:

Again, please try and be respectful to other members, even those you feel are morons. (We'll trust the morons to weed themselves out eventually.) Otherwise, we will need to ban you.

All, mind you, for a non-violation. If calling a position (note: not the person) "clownish" is somehow a violation and (far worse still) saying someone is "not making sense" are ban-able offenses is a far cry from the posted policy and more than a bit ridiculous. If you are going to allow " not makingsense to me" as some bastion of higher debate form you are guaranteed of only two things: lower quality posting (by way of driving off adults who can handle it) and constant moderating hypocrisy by way of this completely obscure standard. You will NOT eliminating feuding, nor should this be a goal. Debates, at their essence, are feuds. Your role should be preventing them from becoming personal. Which, I will repeat, did not happen here.

glunn · March 8, 2013

All well and good Glunn but no matter how politely a threat is issued it is still a threat:

All, mind you, for a non-violation. If calling a position (note: not the person) "clownish" is somehow a violation and (far worse still) saying someone is "not making sense" are ban-able offenses is a far cry from the posted policy and more than a bit ridiculous. If you are going to allow " not makingsense to me" as some bastion of higher debate form you are guaranteed of only two things: lower quality posting (by way of driving off adults who can handle it) and constant moderating hypocrisy by way of this completely obscure standard. You will NOT eliminating feuding, nor should this be a goal. Debates, at their essence, are feuds. Your role should be preventing them from becoming personal. Which, I will repeat, did not happen here.

So if I were to call your position "absolutely ridiculous, poorly thought out and insincere", you would not view this as a personal attack, or disrespectful?

Levi, you are one of our most intelligent members and I appreciate your ability to articulately question the enforcement of the policy. Please reconsider what I wrote above and feel free to private message me to discuss this further. Or if you want to debate this publicly, let's do it in the sticky thread that states the policy. I do not agree that debates are essentially the same as feuds, and would happily debate this with you in the relevant thread.

TheLeviathan · March 8, 2013

I responded privately to these "not reasonable ideas to me" (and most any other sane poster here). I will leave it there and let this silly injustice end here.

jokin · March 9, 2013

Another prospect, Miguel Sano, hit .258 last year....Yet, many pro-scouts project him to hit for a high average as he matures. Hicks' situation is not identical, but I like how he handled AA last year. Made a huge jump in hit/at-bat ratio from A+ to AA...why not expect him to maintain those numbers in AAA, and ultimately in MLB??

I'm confident that Hicks will be an impactful player once he finally sticks. While it's exciting to see what he did last year, albeit in AA and is certainly the #1 topic this spring, it's important to remember that a "toolsy" Herman Hill was once the talk of spring training before he ended up on a likely 4th OF track before his tragic demise. Not saying that Hicks is Hill, just that thus far this spring Hick's numbers have come against an average pitcher experience level of AAAA, at best. The Twins should handle this potentially huge asset carefully to maximize his value. Is he capable of a Hunter-esque career? Absolutely. Should he be annointed as such now? Definitely not. The body of evidence is simply not there to label him as "can't miss" and applying the label could damage his development. The Twins would be wise to continue to monitor his progression carefully. I hope he makes it North in the opening day lineup and hits the ground running, ala Harper. If the Twins don't bring him up right away, or demote him shortly after an early season failed tryout, it's no reason to panic and every reason to continue the Twins steady and patient course with Hicks.

The unbiased, and unemotionally attached, "projection experts" (ZIPS, Oliver, Steamer) certainly aren't expecting what you have practically deemed as the gospel outcome. You also failed to note his unrealistically sustainable recent minor league BABIP numbers. Based on their 2013 predictions of around .236/.317/.370/.687, I think realistic enthusiasm for Hicks in his first year would be .250/.330/.395/.725 (his OBP could be even better with the right guy batting #2):

http://www.fangraphs.com/fanpdetails.aspx?playerid=sa454371&position=OF

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mnfanforlife · March 12, 2013

Thank you. I do not wish to "annoint" anyone as anything. But, I agree that Hicks could have a similar career to Hunter. Its a reasonable comparison, since they are both elite defenders and have seen their share of minor league struggles. Time will tell. Thank you for your research and opinion on Hicks. (somehow this thread got derailed from Oswaldo Arcia, but I am enjoying the discussion none the less)

mnfanforlife · May 21, 2013

I'm confident that Hicks will be an impactful player once he finally sticks. While it's exciting to see what he did last year, albeit in AA and is certainly the #1 topic this spring, it's important to remember that a "toolsy" Herman Hill was once the talk of spring training before he ended up on a likely 4th OF track before his tragic demise. Not saying that Hicks is Hill, just that thus far this spring Hick's numbers have come against an average pitcher experience level of AAAA, at best. The Twins should handle this potentially huge asset carefully to maximize his value. Is he capable of a Hunter-esque career? Absolutely. Should he be annointed as such now? Definitely not. The body of evidence is simply not there to label him as "can't miss" and applying the label could damage his development. The Twins would be wise to continue to monitor his progression carefully. I hope he makes it North in the opening day lineup and hits the ground running, ala Harper. If the Twins don't bring him up right away, or demote him shortly after an early season failed tryout, it's no reason to panic and every reason to continue the Twins steady and patient course with Hicks.

The unbiased, and unemotionally attached, "projection experts" (ZIPS, Oliver, Steamer) certainly aren't expecting what you have practically deemed as the gospel outcome. You also failed to note his unrealistically sustainable recent minor league BABIP numbers. Based on their 2013 predictions of around .236/.317/.370/.687, I think realistic enthusiasm for Hicks in his first year would be .250/.330/.395/.725 (his OBP could be even better with the right guy batting #2):

http://www.fangraphs.com/fanpdetails.aspx?playerid=sa454371&position=OF

[TABLE=class: rgMasterTable, width: 978]
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[/TABLE]

Thanks for your awesome, unemotional projection that you ripped off of some number crunching site. So exciting. I never anointed anyone with any "gospel." I did project what Hicks' career year may look like, which is still reasonable, despite what you think is statistically possible.

Believe what you want, I will too. And I am not "in the least" persuaded to lose my passion and emotion for baseball and baseball prospects.

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