Article: The Blizzard of Oz

[TheLeviathan]

Based on subsequent posts, it seems more like he meant the best he could be. Also based on subsequent posts, it seems like he may think he can do it for years and years. So I really have no idea.

 

So then perhaps rather than criticizing kab's reply, you should be seeking clarification from the original poster. Rationally, kab's interpretation is the only one that makes sense.

[mnfanforlife]

Ceiling projection or a "career-year" is what I had in mind with the numbers that have caused such sour moods. Sorry everyone. People will believe what they want. Including myself. I encourage all posters on TD to believe what they want as well. Go ahead and disagree, it makes this site more fun. Thank you. Have a good night.

[TheLeviathan]

Ceiling projection or a "career-year" is what I had in mind with the numbers that have caused such sour moods.

 

That's not at all how your post came across. Having conversations about prospects isn't very productive if we've sprinkled them with magic prospect dust to make them well beyond reasonable projections.

[mnfanforlife]

That's not at all how your post came across. Having conversations about prospects isn't very productive if we've sprinkled them with magic prospect dust to make them well beyond reasonable projections.

 

Haha! Sprinkled them with magic dust. Love it. Yeah, its fun to imagine the best in prospects. Sorry if I am wrong. I just am not afraid to be disappointed about this kind of stuff. It really is a gamble with no consequences for losing...for me. Not for everyone.

[diehardtwinsfan]

It strikes me more as unjustifiable optimism. That project was an MVP season. I like the guys coming through, but you have to be reasonable about what they may be. Kab's numbers showed it, and those numbers would look like that for most team's players. On that list, only Morneau was one where I kind of wonder if his would have been different had the concussion not happened.

[kab21]

The reason it bothers me is that a lot of people read the site and when they start seeing projections like this then they start believing that Hicks can be that type of player. And then they are disappointed when Hicks is hitting .265 with 14 HR's. He's a damn good player if he does that.

[mnfanforlife]

It strikes me more as unjustifiable optimism. That project was an MVP season. I like the guys coming through, but you have to be reasonable about what they may be. Kab's numbers showed it, and those numbers would look like that for most team's players. On that list, only Morneau was one where I kind of wonder if his would have been different had the concussion not happened.

 

.290 with 25 HR's and 35 Sb's is not an MVP season, in my opinion. All-Star yes, but honestly, its not that crazy of a projection. He is still just 23 and getting stronger. He can do it. But please...believe what you want. If that right is taken away from us, we are screwed.

[mnfanforlife]

Hunter .270 - .277 - the only player whose average went up

.

 

Thank you for providing an example of how there are exceptions to nearly every statistical trend. Hicks may not have a better comparison as a player, than Torii Hunter.

[mnfanforlife]

Hunter never hit .300 in a full minor league season. He has since had seasons of .299 and .313 at age 33 and 36, respectively. I really like comparing Hunter to Hicks. Hunter never hit for power until about 24...so we will see if Hicks follows suit

[TheLeviathan]

If that right is taken away from us, we are screwed.

 

What? No one is knocking down your door to take your rights. We're explaining why your projection isn't very realistic. Like if I predict 2013 will be a 50 homerun season for Mauer. COULD it happen? Sure, but it's so unrealistic that it's clownish. If you wish to project clownish numbers, no one is taking that right from you. It's just going to be pointed out that it's clownish.

 

Now, if we see some changes in his approach (ala Hunter) then we can start to alter projections. But it's going to be some major changes to reach your projection. And the thing is, he could be a DAMN good player at significantly less than your projection.

[mnfanforlife]

What? No one is knocking down your door to take your rights. We're explaining why your projection isn't very realistic. Like if I predict 2013 will be a 50 homerun season for Mauer. COULD it happen? Sure, but it's so unrealistic that it's clownish. If you wish to project clownish numbers, no one is taking that right from you. It's just going to be pointed out that it's clownish.

 

Now, if we see some changes in his approach (ala Hunter) then we can start to alter projections. But it's going to be some major changes to reach your projection. And the thing is, he could be a DAMN good player at significantly less than your projection.

 

No. I disagree. But I wont stoop to calling anything you have said clownish. I had 15 extra minutes: Worm Hunting - Blogs - Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum

[mnfanforlife]

What? No one is knocking down your door to take your rights. We're explaining why your projection isn't very realistic. Like if I predict 2013 will be a 50 homerun season for Mauer. COULD it happen? Sure, but it's so unrealistic that it's clownish. If you wish to project clownish numbers, no one is taking that right from you. It's just going to be pointed out that it's clownish.

 

Now, if we see some changes in his approach (ala Hunter) then we can start to alter projections. But it's going to be some major changes to reach your projection. And the thing is, he could be a DAMN good player at significantly less than your projection.

 

I don't think my projection is clownish at all. Please read: Worm Hunting - Blogs - Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum

[mnfanforlife]

He was also two levels below MLB.

 

Worm Hunting - Blogs - Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum

[FrodaddyG]

Worm Hunting - Blogs - Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum

If you post that link enough will the content eventually change to where it has a point?

[mnfanforlife]

If you post that link enough will the content eventually change to where it has a point?

 

Haha! Well, it does have a point. Its "Hope."

 

Your posts also have a point. Its "Hate"

[CDog]

So then perhaps rather than criticizing kab's reply, you should be seeking clarification from the original poster. Rationally, kab's interpretation is the only one that makes sense.

 

Well that's gotta be pretty embarrassing. On the other hand, interpreting what people write has never been your strongest suit.

[TheLeviathan]

Well that's gotta be pretty embarrassing. On the other hand, interpreting what people write has never been your strongest suit.

 

Huh? Again, you went after kab's very rational, factually-backed approach to a poorly articulated, overzealous projection. And then backpeddled to state you had no idea what he meant. As is clear from this thread, the poster in question cannot be interpreted rationally. kab gave his argument far more credit than it deserves. As I'm doing to your "thoughts" now.

[mnfanforlife]

Huh? Again, you went after kab's very rational, factually-backed approach to a poorly articulated, overzealous projection. And then backpeddled to state you had no idea what he meant. As is clear from this thread, the poster in question cannot be interpreted rationally. kab gave his argument far more credit than it deserves. As I'm doing to your "thoughts" now.

 

Dude chill. Kab can stand up for his/herself. I know. Rosario won't play in Minnesota this year. Its in the original post/thread. I wasn't arguing anything. I was stating my opinion (would rather see Rasario struggle than the AAA guys struggle). It is a perfectly rational idea. I even disclaimed that IT WONT HAPPEN. So you can stop pretending like youre "above" anyone else on here. Because you ARE NOT

[TheLeviathan]

Rosario won't play in Minnesota this year.

 

This is the Hicks thread. I'm not surprised you're having trouble keeping track of your posts that are being criticized.

[mnfanforlife]

Huh? Again, you went after kab's very rational, factually-backed approach to a poorly articulated, overzealous projection. And then backpeddled to state you had no idea what he meant. As is clear from this thread, the poster in question cannot be interpreted rationally. kab gave his argument far more credit than it deserves. As I'm doing to your "thoughts" now.

 

Kab can speak for his or herself. If you hate my posts so much, just stop reading them! It really is your choice to ignore or to become involved. Kab's facts support the Hicks-Hunter comparison very well. Thank you Kab

[mnfanforlife]

This is the Hicks thread. I'm not surprised you're having trouble keeping track of your posts that are being criticized.

 

Oh yes, can hardly keep them straight! Its still fun though.

 

BTW...this is actually the Oswaldo Arcia thread!!! So you CAN be wrong! Amazing

[ashbury]

Your posts also have a point. Its "Hate"

 

It's amazing what a change in Avatar can do.

[Oldgoat_MN]

I think that mnfanforlife's projection was optimistic. However...

indeed Torii Hunter's progress, with all the raw talent he had as a kid, has been in some ways mirrored by Hicks.

It may be useful to point out that Hicks was 22 years old at New Britian. Only Arcia was 21 years old for the season.

Hicks is young for AA ball.

Arcia is otherworldly.

[kab21]

Kab can speak for his or herself. If you hate my posts so much, just stop reading them! It really is your choice to ignore or to become involved. Kab's facts support the Hicks-Hunter comparison very well. Thank you Kab

 

If you'll notice that Hunter's 7pt BA improvement is a far cry from the 20 pt improvement that you projected by Hicks. Additionally there are dozens of examples where BA's fell by 10-30 pts. It's not like I cherry picked these examples to make my argument. If I had I wouldn't have included Hunter even though I knew you would latch onto the Hicks-Hunter without acknowledging just how rare it is for someone to do what Hunter did. Your analysis and projections continue to focus on the very unlikely scenarios while others live in a world of reality.

 

Actually I did cherry pick the examples. I only included those that succeeded at the MLB level. That list would look far worse if I included the Restovich's and other AAA flameouts.

 

Nobody is defending me. they are simply agreeing that your projections, analysis and thoughts are not very good.

[PseudoSABR]

@mnfanforlife

they are simply agreeing that your projections, analysis and thoughts are not very good.

kab21 is right. Look, it stinks, but no one is going to be convinced by your gut-level optimism. It defies not only Hicks track record, but it also ignores the context and history of prospect development. While everyone has a right to an opinion, not every opinion is valid--that is, not every opinion is as hard-won--some research more, can put stats in better context, have a greater familiarity with development, knows well the difference between ceiling and career year, etc.

 

Rather than suggest that those who don't agree with you are haters, while it takes some humility, accept that you could probably do a better job of projection and analyst. After all, witness again how you responded to Leviathan in one post:

Haha! Sprinkled them with magic dust. Love it. Yeah, its fun to imagine the best in prospects. Sorry if I am wrong. I just am not afraid to be disappointed about this kind of stuff. It really is a gamble with no consequences for losing...for me. Not for everyone.

You can't really expect anyone to take you seriously, when an optimism without consequences underpins your point of view, can you?

 

Good luck, and I hope you have the courage to refine your approach.

[mnfanforlife]

@mnfanforlife

 

kab21 is right. Look, it stinks, but no one is going to be convinced by your gut-level optimism. It defies not only Hicks track record, but it also ignores the context and history of prospect development. While everyone has a right to an opinion, not every opinion is valid--that is, not every opinion is as hard-won--some research more, can put stats in better context, have a greater familiarity with development, knows well the difference between ceiling and career year, etc.

 

Rather than suggest that those who don't agree with you are haters, while it takes some humility, accept that you could probably do a better job of projection and analyst. After all, witness again how you responded to Leviathan in one post: You can't really expect anyone to take you seriously, when an optimism without consequences underpins your point of view, can you?

 

Good luck, and I hope you have the courage to refine your approach.

 

Wow. We will see who is right or wrong about Hicks. As for your little "group think" session. Be careful what you're all so sure about...The vast majority of people at NASA believed the Challenger mission was "good to go" that fateful day, despite one engineer that was "crazy" enough to predict an O-ring failure. Obviously, these baseball projections mean nothing compared to the loss of human life. But its a good example of everyone going along with what the group thinks, even though they were all wrong.

 

Hunter is a perfect comparison for Hicks. And I continue to assert that Hicks could very well have a career year of .290 with 25 HR's and 35 Sb's. I apologize for any confusion about the intentions of my "Hicks projection."

 

Individuality is a good thing. Monotony of opinion is not. Be open-minded and allow positive things to enter your life.

[mnfanforlife]

I think that mnfanforlife's projection was optimistic. However...

indeed Torii Hunter's progress, with all the raw talent he had as a kid, has been in some ways mirrored by Hicks.

It may be useful to point out that Hicks was 22 years old at New Britian. Only Arcia was 21 years old for the season.

Hicks is young for AA ball.

Arcia is otherworldly.

 

You are always a quality human being. Thank you. No emotions. Just baseball.

[mnfanforlife]

While everyone has a right to an opinion, not every opinion is valid--that is, not every opinion is as hard-won--some research more, can put stats in better context, have a greater familiarity with development, knows well the difference between ceiling and career year, etc.

 

Please teach me everything you know! I want to learn from the best - - The TD "Experts" - - they are always correct about every prospect. And they never stray from low-to-moderate projections! I can't wait for my first lecture. Its about how to squash your imagination by being overly-concerned with statistics.

[mnfanforlife]

It defies not only Hicks track record, but it also ignores the context and history of prospect development.

 

Hicks minor league career is very similar statistically to Hunter's. And Hicks has been compared to Hunter since draft day. Hicks could very well hit .300 in MLB someday..like Hunter did twice in his 30's....It is not out of the question to assert that Hicks will develop into a very similar player. So what are you talking about here?

[mnfanforlife]

If you'll notice that Hunter's 7pt BA improvement is a far cry from the 20 pt improvement that you projected by Hicks. Additionally there are dozens of examples where BA's fell by 10-30 pts. It's not like I cherry picked these examples to make my argument. If I had I wouldn't have included Hunter even though I knew you would latch onto the Hicks-Hunter without acknowledging just how rare it is for someone to do what Hunter did. Your analysis and projections continue to focus on the very unlikely scenarios while others live in a world of reality.

 

Actually I did cherry pick the examples. I only included those that succeeded at the MLB level. That list would look far worse if I included the Restovich's and other AAA flameouts.

 

Nobody is defending me. they are simply agreeing that your projections, analysis and thoughts are not very good.

 

Look, thank you for the statistical breakdown you provided to try and convince me that Hicks cannot ever hit .290 in MLB. But, I have the right to project whatever I want. If you don't think its good, then dont post on the thread. And yes, they were defending you. There is a little support group of posters that like to be very modest with projections and never risk any criticism. Don't be afraid to make mistakes! This is baseball...have some fun! Your stats proved absolutely nothing about Hicks. However, I do appreciate the effort.

 

You cannot prove anything about Hicks' future right now. Time will prove that. I understand your thinking, but I will never think like that. I'm not afraid to make mistakes about prospects and I invite criticism. Go ahead and tell me the problems you have with this post...I promise to be respectful.