Potential 2013 Twins Draft Pick: Mark Appel

[cmb0252]

Oh, I 100% agree that we need to take the BPA no matter what position but there are a lot of Twins fans that are still mad we took Buxton over a college arm last year. If the Twins took Clint Frazier, this years Buxton, peoples heads might explode.

 

While there is still a long way to go there have just been so many injuries this year, on top of this being a weak draft.Outside of Appel/Manaea no one is really separating themselves from the pack. It would just be nice if the Twins get lucky two years in a row and get the top talent again!

[strumdatjag]

I hear that Appel may be represented by Scott Boras' Russian Alter-Ego along with his evil assistant Natasha Fatale. I don't think Boris will want Appel to fall far from his tree to anywhere near Frostbite Falls.

[Kwak]

The Twins (like most everybody else) have critical needs at: starting pitching, power hitting, and shortstop. The Twins have also stated that "[we're] going to do this the 'right' way..."--so we must conclude that there will not be any "top-flight" free-agent signed. Thus, the Twins must meet their critical needs in the amateur draft or exchange multiple "prospects" like KC. If this presumed BPA isn't one of the above, they have wasted their pick--especially when this draft is projected to be thin on talent.

[IdahoPilgrim]

If 2014 is super deep, then yes, I'd draft Appel. I'd also do what Houston did and grab a couple more tough signs in later rounds. If Appel doesn't go for slot (or slightly over), then I take that money and throw it at them, but no way would I draft Appel and then not sign anyone else. Unless he's the second coming of Santana, you just don't do that.

 

Maybe I am misunderstanding your idea, or the new CBA, but I don't think this is possible. If we draft Appel and he doesn't sign, his slot money can't be reapportioned to other picks - it disappears. You can only shift money among picks if a person signs for under slot. We do get an additional pick in the next year's draft, but it wouldn't help us in this year's draft.

[James]

Maybe I am misunderstanding your idea, or the new CBA, but I don't think this is possible. If we draft Appel and he doesn't sign, his slot money can't be reapportioned to other picks - it disappears. You can only shift money among picks if a person signs for under slot. We do get an additional pick in the next year's draft, but it wouldn't help us in this year's draft.

You are 100% correct on this sb. If a player doesn't sign, his money is removed from the bonus pool and can't be used anywhere else.

[gunnarthor]

I think you nailed it. If Appel, or Manaea for that matter, pitch like aces all year they wont be there at 4. All three teams above the Twins need pitching.

 

The real question is, for the people out there who think the Twins HAVE to take a pitcher, what if Appel, Manaea, and Stanek go 1-2-3 in some order? As I say this while Appel/Manaea have pitched like aces Stanek hasn't really impressed so far.

 

According to Mayo at MLB.com, the other three pitchers in his top 10 are two HS pitchers (Stewart and Ball, although Ball might be an OFer) and Florida junior Jonathan Crawford. I have no idea how well Crawford is doing now. Besides the two Georgia prep guys, there's also a good college third baseman who could jump up to #4, Kris Bryant. And obviously a few other guys will end up in strong consideration for #4.

[cmb0252]

According to Mayo at MLB.com, the other three pitchers in his top 10 are two HS pitchers (Stewart and Ball, although Ball might be an OFer) and Florida junior Jonathan Crawford. I have no idea how well Crawford is doing now. Besides the two Georgia prep guys, there's also a good college third baseman who could jump up to #4, Kris Bryant. And obviously a few other guys will end up in strong consideration for #4.

 

Those are pretty much the names but this already weak draft has been hit pretty hard with injuries already. Stewart is out with a football injury, Whitsons out for the year, and Austin Wilson is out for awhile. All preseason top 10 type guys.

 

Put me in the camp of not being a fan of Ball or Crawford at all. While Crawford has two plus pitches, upper 90s fastball and slider, I have just read too many reports that say because of his delivery he might end up a RP. Ball just has too many question marks for me to like him at 4. Don't get me wrong, both these guys have plenty of time to prove me wrong but right now...gross!

 

If none of the top 3 arms are around, currently the top 3 specs IMO of the draft, my hope is that Bryant and/or Moran prove they can be 3B. If not, the Twins might be taking another toolsy Georgia outfielder!

[Badsmerf]

I think there is a good chance the Cubs take Appel. I didn't even think about that.

[Pitz]

If, when the Twins pick, there is nobody who is clearly the BPA, would they be wiser to sign somebody who would take less than slot and try to use the savings throughout the draft similar to what the Astros did last year? I don't know much about the depth of the draft, but it seems from the discussion that the top end talent is not particularly impressive.

[Mike Sixel]

Put me in the camp of wishing they had Appel right now, and not Buxton, but not so much that it makes me mad. I just think Appel has a high probability of being a legit number 2/3 starting pitcher. Buxton is so far away, the odds of him being great are smaller, even if his ceiling seems higher.

 

As for BPA, I guess I'd ask what that means....how big would the delta need to be between a HS kid that is 5 years away, and a college pitcher that you are pretty sure is going to work out (as sure as you can really be.....)? I mean, it's not like any of the players last year were Harper or Strasburg.

 

If they lose out on the big two starting pitchers this year, I find it hard to figure out where the starting pitchers are likely to come from. The best players are usually, usually, taken early in the draft. If you have high picks three years in a row, and you take HS outfielders every time, just where do the number 1/2 type pitchers come from?

[diehardtwinsfan]

Yeah, I was in the camp for Gausman or Appel over Buxton as well. I'm not sure the whole BPA thing was clear either. Sickles gave Gausman a higher grade than Buxton, and I suspect he'd have done the same with Appel. Both of those guys were putting up 1/2 type numbers against competition that was closer to A+/AA. I think the move wasn't the brightest. Granted they weren't passing up on a Strasberg or Harper type guy to get Buxton, but with the ceilings on all being nice, the obvious need, and the fact that those guys were a lot closer, I'm still rather miffed about this one.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Appel's 15 strikeouts last night was a career-high, but took the loss on the heels of two unearned runs.

 

Game story

 

You have to think many teams in the Top 10 are going to better prepare themselves in the event that Appel drops. I would very much assume that the Twins will have a strong plan in place if Appel is on the board at #4 (i.e. have a lot of college seniors ready to go to save money in rounds 2-10)

[greengoblinrulz]

Friday night

Appel 7IP 4h 3r 1er 15k (career high) 1bb.....lost 3-2

[gunnarthor]

Appel's 15 strikeouts last night was a career-high, but took the loss on the heels of two unearned runs.

 

Game story

 

You have to think many teams in the Top 10 are going to better prepare themselves in the event that Appel drops. I would very much assume that the Twins will have a strong plan in place if Appel is on the board at #4 (i.e. have a lot of college seniors ready to go to save money in rounds 2-10)

 

I suppose but I don't see anyway he slips past the Cubs at this point. No one else has really even made a case for going #1.

[Jim H]

"Yeah, I was in the camp for Gausman or Appel over Buxton as well. I'm not sure the whole BPA thing was clear either. Sickles gave Gausman a higher grade than Buxton, and I suspect he'd have done the same with Appel. Both of those guys were putting up 1/2 type numbers against competition that was closer to A+/AA. I think the move wasn't the brightest. Granted they weren't passing up on a Strasberg or Harper type guy to get Buxton, but with the ceilings on all being nice, the obvious need, and the fact that those guys were a lot closer, I'm still rather miffed about this one." QUOTE FROM DIEHARDTWINSFAN

 

I don't know if Glausman or Appel would of been a better pick than Buxton, but the idea that any college conference is better competition than even Rookie level ball is just wrong. There are very talented college players but most of them are freshmen or sophomores. There are polished college players but most of them are older and not talented enough to get drafted. A Rookie league team such Elizabethan, will have those same young talented college guys, just a year older. The rest of the roster will be 4 year college guys who got drafted, and high school kids or international signings who are very talented or have some experience, or they would be playing in the Gulf Coast league. There is certainly much more talent at Elizabethan than any college team out there. They are also more experienced, generally.

 

I have read many posters who equate college ball with lower minor league ball, but I just don't think that is a realistic comparsion. There are a few college teams with multiple future high draft choices, but most of the roster will not be drafted at all.

[Brandon]

Appel is from Houston and will likely get drafted by Houston. Who else do you see Houston taking? They are going to take the hometown guy all things being equal. I think another reason he wasnt taken by Houston last year was that maybe Appel told them he wanted to finish college and Houston knew they were not going to be good last year and were going to get a top pick this year.

[Seth Stohs]

Appel is from Houston and will likely get drafted by Houston. Who else do you see Houston taking? They are going to take the hometown guy all things being equal. I think another reason he wasnt taken by Houston last year was that maybe Appel told them he wanted to finish college and Houston knew they were not going to be good last year and were going to get a top pick this year.

 

Just like they did last year? They may take him, but I Don't think it's a given... but I think you make a good point.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Appel returned from break with a pretty dominant performance: 11 strikeouts along with 12 groundball outs.

 

A Boras client (Carlos Pena) did sign with the Astros this offseason, so there must have been/be an okay relationship there. I still think the smartest thing they can do is draft Appel and play hardball. Worst case scenario: Draft 1st and 2nd in a much better draft... not ideal, obviously; but hardly the end of the world for an organization that is improving (from the bottom up).

[cmb0252]

Appel kept things going on Thursday vs Washington State throwing a complete game shut out. He allowed 4 hits and had a 10/1 K/BB. Man is a machine.

[Mave]

I just jumped over here from the Jonathan Gray thread, and was thinking about the Appel vs. Gray debate when it comes to picking at number 4 (assuming the Twins would even have the luxury to choose)

 

I know that Boras is Appel's agent, but if a team decides that Appel can truly anchor a staff, then why not draft him, try your best with Boras (but likely end up paying the devil in the end) and inserting Appel into your rotation come September? It sounds like he has nothing left to prove on anywhere, so why not just pay the guy and let him get after it?

 

Also-- look at this list...

 

2013 MLB Top Total Salaries - Starting Pitcher

 

Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly (19 and 20, respectively) earn just north of $13 million. Now I have no idea what Boras would demand, but based on the new draft salary-structure, I would think that we could get Appel cheaper than this. And I would also have to believe Appel would contribute more to a roster both now and in the future than Dempster and Lilly.

 

Finally-- based on this money-talk, wouldn't it be worth it to get a stud in the draft if you truly think he is the one? I know drafting Appel would take up a huge portion of our available draft money, but in reality, how many contributing, major-league caliber players can a team count on finding in a single draft?

 

Sorry if this has already been touched on here... I just jumped over from another thread

[Mike Sixel]

They won't have a shot at Appel unless he gets hurt. The Cubs will be taking him. The Twins' hope is that Gray somehow falls. Otherwise it is another year w/o picking an ace type pitcher and going with some HS kid 6 years away. Just my guess.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm not so certain about that. Manaea and Anderson both look like potential anchors and should be there. I'm not so certain while people are suddenly down on Manaea. He's had 1 bad start.

[cmb0252]

Some HS kid 6 years away? Don't know who you are talking about but it clearly isn't Buxton.

 

As for Manaea, while he might only have one bad start, his stuff isn't there like it was in cape cod. His fastball has been a tick or two slower. His slider and control haven't been as consistent. College stats are great and all but scouts are looking for ability, not the final stat line.

 

If Appel( most likely) and Gray (decent chance) are gone by the Twins pick they will be in an interesting spot.

[Badsmerf]

The way Appel has pitched, there is no way he is making it to the Twins. Boras has little leverage now and teams don't have to be scared to draft him. If Boras holds out again, he will have cost Appel millions. His best strategy would have been to let him sign and play right away because he might have seen serious MLB playing time this season. Now, he is backed up a year and if he doesn't sign he is backed up again.

[ThePuck]

Some HS kid 6 years away? Don't know who you are talking about but it clearly isn't Buxton.

 

 

For the record, how long do you think Buxton will spend in the minors?

[cmb0252]

For the record, how long do you think Buxton will spend in the minors?

 

BA has Buxtons ETA at 2015 which seems a little aggressive but when you have a freak athlete with Buxtons work ethic it is completely possible. Personally I think Buxton will be up to stay in 2016.

 

But anyways....this is the Appel section and not the OMG why did the twins take a HS OF and not a college pitcher section. We already have enough of those.

 

I agree with most people here that there is no way Appel is going to make it to the Twins at 4. Even if the Astros pass on him the Cubs wont. They need pitching in the minors almost as bad as us.

[Mike Sixel]

When did I say Buxton would be 6 years away? Not one time in this thread.

[kab21]

As for Manaea, while he might only have one bad start, his stuff isn't there like it was in cape cod. His fastball has been a tick or two slower. His slider and control haven't been as consistent. College stats are great and all but scouts are looking for ability, not the final stat line.

 

If Appel( most likely) and Gray (decent chance) are gone by the Twins pick they will be in an interesting spot.

 

These issues have been known for some time. I think many put Manaea into front of the rotation anchor tier based on him magically solving these by draft time. Imo Manaea continues to be the same prospect that he was a couple of months ago. He has good upside but isn't a sure thing.

 

Appel has seemingly pulled away from the competition and Gray has moved into the spot that Manaea was put into.

 

The Twins look like they will be in a tough spot in the draft. I don't have a problem with drafting a HS'er if he's the best talent and good top 5 overall picks don't take 6 yrs. The key is to pick a good top 5 pick and not the Beckhams, Tates or Bushes but that's the risk with HS'ers.

[cmb0252]

After several very unspectacular weeks Appel came out and pitched well.

9/2 K/BB, 8.1 innings, 8 hits, 1 ER,

Appel had fifteen, yes fifteen, ground ball outs against one fly out.