Article: I'll Say It

[PseudoSABR]

. Keep Willingham,

I agree. Unless the Twins are blown away by offers for him, keep him. Willingham is likely worth more to the Twins over the next several years than any player they could fetch for him. He's fairly inexpensive, and still has two years on his contract. Morneau is the more palatable trade candidate from the Twins perspective, though I'm not sure what kind of value we can get for him. If Morneau produces this year, I wouldn't mind an extension either.

 

I think we should temper our trade expectations for both these guys. Neither of them are necessarily blocking anyone coming up, and they'll help us compete in 2014 and beyond probably more than anything we'll get in return.

 

Arcia/Hicks/Parm in the OF, and Morneau/Hammer at 1B/DH for the next several years sounds pretty good to me.

[TheLeviathan]

I think we should temper our trade expectations for both these guys. Neither of them are necessarily blocking anyone coming up, and they'll help us compete in 2014 and beyond probably more than anything we'll get in return.

 

It's highly unlikely Willingham is going to be a continuing positive force on the roster beyond 2014. His cost will more than likely increase if he continues to hit this well or his injury riddled past will come back to haunt him as his body ages. Morneau you could be right about, but his concussion history is always a ticking time-bomb that the club is going to have to consider before guaranteeing him anything.

[PseudoSABR]

It's highly unlikely Willingham is going to be a continuing positive force on the roster beyond 2014. His cost will more than likely increase if he continues to hit this well or his injury riddled past will come back to haunt him as his body ages. Morneau you could be right about, but his concussion history is always a ticking time-bomb that the club is going to have to consider before guaranteeing him anything.

I think it's likely that Willingham will be a positive force beyond 2014; maybe not to the same degree he was last year or will be this year. But I don't think he'll suddenly have negative value. Of course, I wouldn't think about extending until his contract expires, or he shows continued dominance. That said, Willingham's first full season was as 27 year old, and while he's had injuries he's collected at least 400 PAs every season since then.

 

In both cases, the contract matters. I'd go short term deals with vesting thresholds for PAs.

 

I just don't want the Twins to sell short on players now because they are losing, when those same players can help bridge the gap to the next core. We might be overpaying to keep them around, but we could also be looking at gaping holes at DH and 1B (esp. if Parm sticks in the OF or busts) as soon as next year. I also don't see them spending similar money on FAs; they are far more likely to spend on their own, imo.

[Kwak]

The Twins will have plenty of cap space when it comes time to negotiate a new contract for Willingham. As a DH, he's not hurting the team defensively and other teams can more easily evaluate his worth to them for purposes of a trade.

[stringer bell]

A pretty good column. I think a lot of the predictions are spot on. Time will tell.

[TheLeviathan]

I think it's likely that Willingham will be a positive force beyond 2014; maybe not to the same degree he was last year or will be this year. But I don't think he'll suddenly have negative value. Of course, I wouldn't think about extending until his contract expires, or he shows continued dominance. That said, Willingham's first full season was as 27 year old, and while he's had injuries he's collected at least 400 PAs every season since then.

 

Here's the problem I see with that. First - he has had injuries, lots of them, even during his prime. He's coming up to that age threshold when professional players start to break down physically. If he's continuing to be a very productive offensive player, at that age, it's unlikely he's going to want to go year by year. And it's very unlikely he will continue to be "affordable". It's nothing personal with Willingham, I like him as a player a lot, but you're giving up a lot of potential value now (while he IS affordable and productive) in order to keep him around several seasons from now when the odds are far less likely he will be. Given that corner outfield/DH is the most easily replaced positions on the field I think you capitalize on high value now if the market presents that.

 

I agree with not selling short, I wouldn't just dump him to dump him. But I think there is reason to believe that he would have trade value for exactly the same reasons you believe he has value to the Twins.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I suspect both Willingham and Morneau will be hot commodities at the deadline, and I hope that the Twins pick up a solid middle infielder and another good pitcher as centerpieces for each of them. I also kind of hope that Morneau would resign next offseason and do a DH/1B rotation with Parmalee...

[Yossarian]

Real.

[ashbury]

I have been wondering this for a while, realistically speaking... what can we expect from Chris Parmelee defensively?

 

You will see the beat writer pull out his thesaurus to look up synonyms for "adequate".

[Oldgoat_MN]

Unless there is a player added during spring training , it seems to me that Joe Benson makes the team as the 4th outfielder as long as he is healthy.

If it comes down to Clete or Benson why not take a chance on a guy who may have more upside?

Joe already is on the outside looking in as far as Prospects are concerned, so lets give him a chance and see what he does with it?

 

Very valid point. Makes sense.