Article: Draft Board v.1.0 (2/17)

[Jeremy Nygaard]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1381-Draft-Board-v-1-0-(2-17)

[Otwins]

Boras does not have the leverage he did last year. What is Appel going to do go to graduate school? He will sign for slot value. That being said he may be the 1st pick and get his money. If he is available at #4 and the twins like him they should draft him.

[johnnydakota]

thanks Jeremy , nice read

[Twins Twerp]

Dont touch the guy. Boris is an ass. U dont want to waste the number 4 pick on a guy who is asking for over a million over slot. Plus how many 200 inning games does he have

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Boras does not have the leverage he did last year. What is Appel going to do go to graduate school? He will sign for slot value. That being said he may be the 1st pick and get his money. If he is available at #4 and the twins like him they should draft him.

 

I've stopped thinking any system can beat Scott Boras at his game. I don't know what Appel would do, but if he's in a situation to sign for "slot", which is less than what he turned down last year... I don't think he'll sign.

 

The irony is that #1 is going to be Boras v. Houston again and last year it didn't work out for Boras. Houston also had a great draft. I bet they're happy with they decision they made (and might make it again).

[gunnarthor]

Good write up, Jeremy. It'll be interesting to follow college baseball this year. I guess I'm really hoping Appel falls to the Twins. I'd also like to see the Twins take a chance with their second pick on someone like Florida pitcher Karstan (I think is his name) who got hurt but had top 10 stuff. He didn't take 2m as a high schooler. Now with an injury and falling draft stock, maybe he'll want to start his pro career and get some money.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I don't know what the CBA explicitly prohibits, but would Boras take slot in return for a handshake agreement that Appel gets called up in September, thus getting a (delayed) head start on service time and free agency? Or would he take slot with the parameters of a major-league contract worked out even though it can't be signed? I would consider both. I would worry, though, that Boras is a snake (he is) and would turn around and try to get the MLB to void whatever agreement was signed, to make Appel a free agent.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Good write up, Jeremy. It'll be interesting to follow college baseball this year. I guess I'm really hoping Appel falls to the Twins. I'd also like to see the Twins take a chance with their second pick on someone like Florida pitcher Karstan (I think is his name) who got hurt but had top 10 stuff. He didn't take 2m as a high schooler. Now with an injury and falling draft stock, maybe he'll want to start his pro career and get some money.

 

Thanks to those leaving compliments.

 

I am under the impression that Whitson will redshirt (still would be eligible for the draft) and return for his junior year next year. Considering it's a shoulder deal and the likelihood is that he won't be able to throw before the draft, I would bet that Whitson doesn't go in the Top 10 rounds (those tied to money), but goes later so that teams could a) spend money the saved on him and hopefully see him throw before July 15. Smart money says the Twins won't even kick those tires.

[nfisch22]

Right now there is no way I have Smith in my top 10 if I'm the Twins. We need Pitching, Catching and a SS. Smith is very good hitting OF or 1B which if you look at our farm system we don't need. I would have Frazier or Meadows way ahead of Smith. The other guy to watch would be Trey Ball from a HS in Indiana. He's a tall and projectable LHP. He's 6'6" and throws in the low 90's. Give him a few years to add some muscle and you may be looking at a very good pitching prospect for the Twins.

[glunn]

Great post Jeremy, and great follow ups.

[Celebrity Weddings!]

Plus how many 200 inning games does he have

 

Zero?

[Seth Stohs]

There's no question, Jeremy is the expert on the draft here at Twins Daily. Be sure to follow in him twitter and check back frequently for his articles on the draft! Great stuff!

 

And, frankly, I don't think that the Twins would be afraid to take Appel at all, if they believed he was the best guy available. I'd be surprised if Appel didn't sign this year. There is less leverage. His options are certainly more limited. And the Twins aren't afraid to go a little over-slot to get him or anyone. They've shown that before. It may mean taking a couple of college seniors in the next 10 picks, but that's OK.

[markos]

I'm a big fan of this new idea!

 

Did you consider any of the prep shortstops for your list? JP Crawford, Oscar Mercado, Jan Hernandez and Chris Rivera have all been mentioned on various first round lists, though they each have significant fielding or hitting questions. If they are able to put it all together in the spring, they may move up quickly.

 

I'm looking forward to following your updates throughout the spring.

[ScottyB]

I'd stay away from Appel, Boris is a bloodsucker, besides Manaea is a lefty, and that's something we're short on in starters. Hadn't realized that Parmelee was a Boris guy. By the by, the only reason Boris had Pelfrey sign here was on specific instructions from Pelfrey. Apparently his wife has family here and he told Boris to get him a contract with the Twins.

[edavis0308]

What exactly did not signing last year leave Appel for options this year? What happens if he doesn't sign again this year? I've never heard of such a thing happening.

[darin617]

Quick question for you Jeremy, how did last years predictions compare with the actual results? I am in no way trying to be a pain. I was just curious how things turned out compared to predictions.

[Seth Stohs]

What exactly did not signing last year leave Appel for options this year? What happens if he doesn't sign again this year? I've never heard of such a thing happening.

 

Look up two very different results of Boras having players hold out... 1.) JD Drew, 2.) Matt Harrington.

[drjim]

People really need to stop with the Boras stuff. Just because he is the best known agent doesn't mean he does stuff that other agents don't do or won't do.

 

He's a good agent with great knowledge of the market and CBA but he still ultimately works for his client.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?b=1209My mock was better than I remembered.

 

I also recall - it's on a thread somewhere that I couldn't find - projecting Walker to the Twins. I thought Mitch Brown would be a Twin, liked Berrios (as you can see in the link), but didn't anticipate the college relievers.

[nicksaviking]

Consider that if Appel is the guy, the Twins will be largely pinning their hopes for future rotation stabbility on Appel and Alex Meyer, two Boras clients. If they succeed, it's likely 6 years and out unless they are traded earlier. They're not going to be getting any pre-arbitration contract extensions with either of them, Boras doesn't do that.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I'm a big fan of this new idea!

 

Did you consider any of the prep shortstops for your list? JP Crawford, Oscar Mercado, Jan Hernandez and Chris Rivera have all been mentioned on various first round lists, though they each have significant fielding or hitting questions. If they are able to put it all together in the spring, they may move up quickly.

 

I'm looking forward to following your updates throughout the spring.

 

To my knowledge, the Twins view Mercado and Crawford as 1st rounders. Mercado may be more likely to stick at SS. A team that believes in Crawford at SS will take him before the Twins select in the 2nd round. Hernandez's draft stock will change until the Excellence Tournament. Don't have a great feel on Rivera yet.

 

Obviously opinions can change daily.

[Rick Niedermann]

Look up two very different results of Boras having players hold out... 1.) JD Drew, 2.) Matt Harrington.

 

Glad you pointed out Matt Harrington Seth. He was offered 4 million once after being the number one overall pick, didn't sign. Changed to Boras as an agent and again refused a 1.2 million dollar offer from the Padres. His arm went bad. All those millions down the drain. I hope Mark Appel reads this story and the comments.

[drjim]

Consider that if Appel is the guy, the Twins will be largely pinning their hopes for future rotation stabbility on Appel and Alex Meyer, two Boras clients. If they succeed, it's likely 6 years and out unless they are traded earlier. They're not going to be getting any pre-arbitration contract extensions with either of them, Boras doesn't do that.

 

Actually Boras does sign pre-arb extensions, especially for pitchers. Money has to be market price, he won't give a discount.

[Thrylos]

I don't know... Knowing the Twins, if Clint Frazier is still available at number 4, I just cannot see them pass...

(of course it is still way too early to even think about draft. Give it a good 2-3 months for the High School and College seasons to start and for injuries to happen etc...)

[halfchest]

Gotta like Appel if he's available. I can't imagine the guy holding out and ending up playing Independent Ball for a year. If he does it a second time I can't see any team wasting a high pick on him the following year. That said he'll go for slot at least, I just can't see him being unreasonable like he was this past year.

 

The best thing about him is that he'll likely move fast through the system to join the other guys that should be ready by 2014. We could easily be looking at a 2014 rotation made up of some combo Meyer, May, Gibson, Appel(at some point), Diamond, Hendriks, Worley. That's not including guys like BJ Hermsen and Alex Wimmers who have a shot to be right there with a good year. That's a nice group to have fighting for rotations spots come 2014 and 2015.

[kab21]

Consider that if Appel is the guy, the Twins will be largely pinning their hopes for future rotation stabbility on Appel and Alex Meyer, two Boras clients. If they succeed, it's likely 6 years and out unless they are traded earlier. They're not going to be getting any pre-arbitration contract extensions with either of them, Boras doesn't do that.

 

I think it's okay to worry about this issue in 2020 or 2021... The pitching is abysmal now and I don't think you pass on a guy with his skills unless an equally good prospect also drops to #4.

 

It will be interesting to see how the next couple of months shake out. Right now the draft is about 3 very good college pitchers and a few toolsy OF'ers. At this point the pitchers have to be at the very top of the list but the Twins pick #4.

 

It would be interesting to know if the new CBA did away with inserting a first season MLB call up similar to Chris Sale a few years ago. As far as I know it didn't. I know they got rid of MLB contracts stretching the bonus over a number of seasons but I'm unsure if a mandatory call up was also eliminated. It's one area that agents can still game the system or at least even the field against GMs gaming service time.

[Seth Stohs]

Don't forget that the Twins can then trade guys like that in their 4th or 5th seasons for a big haul, as the A's have shown in some of their deals.

[RodneyKline]

Anyone who drafts for needs and doesn't take the best player on the board in any sport is making a mistake most of the time. In baseball, where so many draft picks are traded, take years to surface at the mlb level and are far from sure things no matter who you draft, is making a mistake every time! You would be stupid not to take the player you believe has the best odds of being an impact MLB player regardless of the position the pro level needs. Putting more emphasis on the position they play is OK. In other words a SS, LHP starter, CF, or C would be OK to consider over a corner outfielder, corner infielder or a RH relief pitcher for example if they are equal odds to be an impact player but what the team needs in 4 or 5 years will likely change and that player could always be traded for a King's ransom if it turns out that the unlikely result is that you have two superstars at the same position. Just land the superstar. You never know what your team will look like when this player is ready. Just take the best player when everything is considered except for your MLB needs.

[gunnarthor]

Thanks to those leaving compliments.

 

I am under the impression that Whitson will redshirt (still would be eligible for the draft) and return for his junior year next year. Considering it's a shoulder deal and the likelihood is that he won't be able to throw before the draft, I would bet that Whitson doesn't go in the Top 10 rounds (those tied to money), but goes later so that teams could a) spend money the saved on him and hopefully see him throw before July 15. Smart money says the Twins won't even kick those tires.

 

You're probably right. But the Twins picked Bard at #42 who didn't pitch after March with a torn lat muscle (I believe). His slot signing was 1.22 which is what he took. Whitson wants more $ but he had a bad sophomore season and now has had a big injury. Maybe he'd sign. I think the Twins draft strategy is to, more or less, play it level so they probably wouldn't be able to draft someone in round 11 and offer him a huge signing bonus. I thought there was a thread on this but I couldn't find it.

[Big City]

Great write-up, thanks for the pre-draft info.

 

First Buxton, then possibly Appel??? I've no clue who's in the 2014 draft but the Twins are raking in amazing prospects. Appel just fits so perfectly with our group of top prospects a year or two away from Minnesota. This is exactly what we need is to graduate a group of prospects to play together in Minnesota for the next 6 years. I really don't care that our rotation will be almost completely RHPs and I think it actually plays better to Target Field since RF's more difficult to hit HR's than LF. If the Twins have to go a bit over slot to sign Appel, I'd say do it, we'll kick ourselves later if we don't.