Article: Will Mike Pelfrey be ready by opening day?

[Parker Hageman]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1377-Will-Mike-Pelfrey-be-ready-by-opening-day

[Craig Arko]

As I recall Baker had other arm trouble which was the original cause of the surgery, and the TJ decision came during that procedure. So he's probably a more complicated case than Pelfry.

[Parker Hageman]

All of Baker's original injuries were UCL related and he had it replaced. Obviously each individual is different but the interesting part will be to see how the slow-and-steady approach compares to Pelfrey's.

[fairweather]

I find it inconsequential if Pelfrey ever throws a pitch for the Twins. He's terrible and every time I watch him pitch all I will be able to think about is all the decent SP that the Twins could have had if they were willing to spend just slightly more money.

[Mike Sixel]

So, you are asking if I should trust the Twins' medical staff, or a different medical staff? It would be great if he could pitch, less time watching AAA-AAAA pitchers pitch, the better.

[Parker Hageman]

So, you are asking if I should trust the Twins' medical staff, or a different medical staff?

 

It's not medical staff that it in question. I'm just trying to temper expectations of when Pelfrey will be a contributor. Based on past TJ cases, 12 months is the time pitchers general return.

 

The Cubs appear more open & accepting of the reality that it will be at least 12 months for Baker (possibly more). The Twins are - at least publicly - believing that Pelfrey will have accelerated his recovery time by one month (which is possible, I suppose). But they have been burned by that in the very recent past (Nathan). Behind closed doors, they may be making moves (like signing Perez) that suggests they are not 100% confident in his ability to contribute right away (or they simply could be adding pitching depth).

[jokin]

Behind closed doors, they may be making moves (like signing Perez) that suggests they are not 100% confident in his ability to contribute right away (or they simply could be adding pitching depth).

 

Bringing in Perez as potentially a SP replacement smacks of desperation. This makes the 1-year contract to Pelfrey without a team option all the more curious.

 

Never say never but, if history has any indication, the likelihood of him pitching effectively in April appears low.

 

If not Pelfrey, who is left to start out in April without a question mark when camp breaks?

 

Kevin Correia. Our very own Ace Ventura, who unfortunately also has chiroptophobia (fear of bats).

 

Parker, I hope you can find more encouraging health news about the other acquisitions and Diamond. IE, Any news on Worley and his arm problems, yet?

[Miraclemat]

It's not medical staff that it in question. I'm just trying to temper expectations of when Pelfrey will be a contributor. Based on past TJ cases, 12 months is the time pitchers general return.

 

The Cubs appear more open & accepting of the reality that it will be at least 12 months for Baker (possibly more). The Twins are - at least publicly - believing that Pelfrey will have accelerated his recovery time by one month (which is possible, I suppose). But they have been burned by that in the very recent past (Nathan). Behind closed doors, they may be making moves (like signing Perez) that suggests they are not 100% confident in his ability to contribute right away (or they simply could be adding pitching depth).

 

Pelfrey completely healthy would produce #3 starter numbers...maybe 4.5 ERA. 8-15 months after TJ and we can expect 5.5+ ERA at BEST. Not sure what Twins are thinking.....but he will not be viable option this season.

[Brad Swanson]

Wait, "The Big Pelf?" How did he get a Gardy nickname before actually playing here? No wonder the Twins have been enamored with him for so long.

[GCTF]

Wait, "The Big Pelf?" How did he get a Gardy nickname before actually playing here? No wonder the Twins have been enamored with him for so long.

 

Pelfreysie was a bit much, even for Gardy.

[miller761]

As I recall Baker had other arm trouble which was the original cause of the surgery, and the TJ decision came during that procedure. So he's probably a more complicated case than Pelfry.

 

It will be interesting to compare the progress of the 2 pitchers. I question Baker's durability and ability to stay on the field and off the injury report. Pelfrey will be much better in that area. I like the Perez signing - if nothing else he can be a big contributor to the bullpen as a lefty specialist. He always seemed to get us out in those situations when he was an Indian.

[drjim]

There already are reports out of Chicago that Baker will not be ready for opening day. Perhaps the Twins are being too optimistic with Pelfrey but that is an interesting contrast between the two.

[TheLeviathan]

Rumors are that they are pushing Baker back out of caution, not because they have to.

[drjim]

Rumors are that they are pushing Baker back out of caution, not because they have to.

 

That is probably a good thing for him in the long run. I like Pelfrey probably more than most but it does seem a little too quick.

[Nick Nelson]

When the Twins signed Pelfrey I said I liked him on a one-year contract coming off TJ better than Baker, because his arm has shown much more strength and resilience over the course of his career. The fact that Pelf's timetable is apparently well ahead of Baker's – particularly considering he had the surgery a month later – would jibe with that. It's possible the Twins are being way too optimistic about Pelfrey but I've heard nothing to make me think their optimism is unfounded. As for Baker, if I were the Cubs I'd probably be taking it slow too. Guy's been fragile.

[Miraclemat]

Only reason to be optomistic about Pelfrey is if you feel he will be MORE effective after the surgery than when he was previously healthy.....that won't happen. This is wasted $$$$. I personally don't care if the Twins waste their money.....unless they are avoiding other guys because they are "out of money."

[Parker Hageman]

It's possible the Twins are being way too optimistic about Pelfrey but I've heard nothing to make me think their optimism is unfounded.

 

Nick -- we hashed this out a bit on Twitter a few days ago -- but to clarify, my position is not a question of who would return to better form quicker. Personally, for many of the reasons you cited previously, Pelfrey is a probably better bet to recovery fully and thus a better signing option on a one-year deal than Baker.

 

What I'm suggesting is that Pelfrey will not be effective if he pushes it for a April return. Studies have shown that tommy john takes 12-to-18 months to FULLY recover. Sure, pitchers have come back prior to that timeline but many have struggled (like Nathan) or did so in a limited capacity (like Hudson). The Cubs have already made plans to ease Baker into the rotation. Pelfrey seems to be pushing through.

 

Also, with Baker, his recent laundry list of arm ailments revolved around his UCL -- which was replaced. In this case, that makes citing his previous injuries almost irrelevant.

 

That said, as I type this, beat reporters are saying Pelfrey's live session was "impressive" and he "kept the ball down in the zone" (Rhett Bollinger & LaVelle Neal). Still, I'd rather the Twins hope for the best and plan for the worst.

[CDog]

The fact that Pelf's timetable is apparently well ahead of Baker's – particularly considering he had the surgery a month later ...

 

It likely isn't significant in this case, but the dates I've seen are only two weeks apart for Baker and Pelfrey's surgeries (April 17 and May 1).

[Kwak]

 

 

Still, I'd rather the Twins hope for the best and plan for the worst.

 

I think the Twins have plenty of contingency plans--"...plenty of arms...".--Ryan.

Consider all the the newly acquired pitchers, add those who spent some time last year on the Active Roster, and sprinkle in anybody else from Rochester and I conclude that Ryan indeed did "hope for the best, but [planned] for the worst." The "Plan" did not include winning 25 more games than 2012, it was "patch-over the present and develop for the future." It really doesn't matter if Pelfrey succeeds from April or June through the season, or succeeds at all in 2013. It's really about building a consistent winner for the future. Pelfrey (and others) are just placeholders until the fruition of "The Plan".

[Mike Sixel]

When beat writers or tv reporters say something other than PR work for the twins this spring, I will pay attention. Until then, I doubt I will believe anything they write. Call me cynical, but this spring is all PR from reporters so far.

[nicksaviking]

Or perhaps the Pelfrey is saying the same optimistic things every athlete coming off major surgery says, "ahead of schedule" "no setbacks" "feeling great" "ready for opening day" and the Twins plan on letting him put his money where his mouth is, seeing as he's only on a one year deal. Gibson you baby, 2008 Liriano you baby, but a rental player? Obviously the Twins are willing to throw caution to the wind, they wrote this season off long ago. What does it really cost them if he has arm issues or is ineffective due to an early return? Had they insisted on an option year perhaps things would be different, but they didn't and they aren't.

[Parker Hageman]

What does it really cost them if he has arm issues or is ineffective due to an early return?

 

Several wins and possibly some trade value.

 

But, overall, not much. It's a valid point.

[Parker Hageman]

Here are some post-session quotes/items from Pelfrey today:

 

"Pelfrey added he's been more aggressive than others in coming back from TJ surgery but Dr. James Andrews has signed off on everything." -- @RhettBollinger

 

"I‘m going to be ready," Mike Pelfrey said. "I feel great. There’s not a doubt in my mind Opening Day I’m going to be on the team." -- @MikeBerardino

[nicksaviking]

For how large Pelfrey is and his decent velocity, I think many of us are disappointed with his poor K numbers. As unlikely as it would seem, perhaps those numbers take a jump his first year back. Sure he's moving into the dreaded AL, but he has always had pretty decent control. Perhaps he will be somewhat effectively wild this year. Not to the extent of Liriano who was ineffectively wild, but perhpas a bit of location instability will cause batters to not be able to dig in against this already imposing mountain of a man.

[bird]

Those Pelfrey quotes reported by Berardino and Bollinger? Nothing but Twins PR. Right, mike wants wins?

 

We're a handful of days into camp, for God's sake. There's no bad news to report! Hell, today is the first day of live batting practice, so yes, mike, I call you cynical, my brother.

[drjim]

When beat writers or tv reporters say something other than PR work for the twins this spring, I will pay attention. Until then, I doubt I will believe anything they write. Call me cynical, but this spring is all PR from reporters so far.

 

You don't really understand the job of beat reporter do you?

[snepp]

You don't really understand the job of beat reporter do you?

 

Are you suggesting that a beat reporter should be nothing more than an organizational shill?

[ThePuck]

Are you suggesting that a beat reporter should be nothing more than an organizational shill?

 

A Beat Regurgitater? :-)

[Mike Sixel]

If their role is PR, why read it?

[Craig Arko]

http://thebeetreporter.blog.com/

 

The beet reporter...