Murphy: Inteview with Terry Ryan

[ashbury]

Plenty to chew on in Ryan's interview. Here's one:

 

> We're going to have to pitch better to do that, and we're going to have to hit better with runners in scoring position to do that.

 

Check, on the first half of this. I can't believe the second part is key for the offense. The Twins scored 100+ runs fewer than the Rangers did in 2012; surely the fact that the Rangers hit 30 more doubles and 70 more homers than the Twins goes a very long way toward explaining this difference, without resorting to RISP stats. An inning here and there where the Twins follow a single with a single, while the Rangers follow a single with a run-scoring double or a homer, matters more than hoping you can somehow be more able than other teams to bat .400 when someone's on second.

[FrodaddyG]

Plenty to chew on in Ryan's interview. Here's one:

 

> We're going to have to pitch better to do that, and we're going to have to hit better with runners in scoring position to do that.

Maybe they'll bring back whatever advance scouts they gave the credit to for the ridiculous RISP stats they had a few years back. They've apparently been AWOL since then.

[drjim]

With the amount of criticism you repeatedly dish out regarding Butera, assistant coaches, etc, I do wonder if you have a fundamental understanding of what things are actually important to making a baseball team win.

 

In the mind of Twins' personnel, Butera has done his job and met their expectations over the last few of years. To them he has earned the job and it is not a scholarship. You can disagree and lament his crappy bat all you want, but that's how it is. Probably best to come to terms with this reality.

 

Yes. Calling Butera a part of the scholarship program is a big misunderstanding. The Twins are quite aware he is a solid glove/no bat backup C. He will be lucky to get 100-120 ABs this year but is acceptable on the roster because Mauer and Doumit play almost every day and have defensive issues of their own.

 

Better to have him on the roster than Hermann, who can stay in the minors and play everyday to continue developing. If Mauer or Doumit got hurt I would guess Hermann gets called up and takes most of the ABs while Butera would stay in his current role.

[old nurse]

Plenty to chew on in Ryan's interview. Here's one:

 

> We're going to have to pitch better to do that, and we're going to have to hit better with runners in scoring position to do that.

 

Check, on the first half of this. I can't believe the second part is key for the offense. The Twins scored 100+ runs fewer than the Rangers did in 2012; surely the fact that the Rangers hit 30 more doubles and 70 more homers than the Twins goes a very long way toward explaining this difference, without resorting to RISP stats. An inning here and there where the Twins follow a single with a single, while the Rangers follow a single with a run-scoring double or a homer, matters more than hoping you can somehow be more able than other teams to bat .400 when someone's on second.

Not nit picking. but isn't hitting for more power hitting better?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Once the ink was dry on Doumit's contract, it was clear the Twins would carry a third catcher and it would be someone like Butera. In a day and age where teams often carry only 13 position players, someone like Doumit strikes me as a false bargain. Sign a good-field no-hit catcher, and you have to compensate with a bench player who will pinch-hit for this catcher when you are behind

 

Except that you can't really do that with the Twins because chances are, your other catcher (Joe Mauer) is the DH. If your second catcher goes down, you lose the DH. Now, that doesn't matter to someone like me. I think the Twins should carry two catchers because losing the DH doesn't matter for two innings in a game where your catcher gets injured. The Twins obviously feel differently about it.

 

So if you're willing to pinch-hit for your backup catcher on a two catcher roster, it's no different than inserting two catchers into the lineup at the same time, which renders Butera off both rosters. So, in the thinking of the Twins, you either refuse to pinch-hit for your backup catcher on a two catcher roster or you carry a third catcher for that inevitable emergency that never seems to actually happen.

 

in other games, this bench player can handle a different role. When you sign a good-hit no-field catcher, your bench option is to get another catcher. This is why the Twins were able to "out bid" any other team for Doumit's services.

 

The scholarship to Butera is just shorthand for this larger strategic choice.

 

 

See above. With or without Doumit, the Twins would probably carry a third catcher because Mauer plays nearly every day and whether Doumit is a good defensive catcher is irrelevant. See 2008 and 2009 when Joe Mauer was playing 120+ games at catcher. You either leave Mauer on the bench (a huge offensive loss) or you refuse to pinch-hit for Mike Redmond and his woeful bat, period. The rest of the bench played virtually no role in that decision. It was all about Mauer and not losing that precious DH spot for an inning or two if an injury occurred.

 

This has everything to do with the Twins' ideas on how to build a roster around Joe Mauer, not Ryan Doumit.

[nicksaviking]

Unless the team has absolutely no options or the manager is insane. IP will tell you that a pitcher is decent because if he's not... He won't be given any more innings to throw.

 

Yes there are a ton of different variables to that... it's not cut and dried but nothing really ever is... In a very simple way... IP is a good measure to cut thru a lot of bull and determine if a pitcher has been healthy and at least somewhat effective. If he ain't healthy and he ain't effective... It will show up in IP.

 

I kinda agree with the point that drjim is making. At least the point that I think he is making.

 

Then it just goes to show that a high IP total is simply a byproduct of being a good pitcher. It is the other factors, high K/9, keeping runners off base, keeping zero's on the board, that make a pitcher good. The high innings pitched simply is the result of those factors. It doesn't work the other way around. Having a high IP doesn't prevent baserunners or runs or produce a higher K%.

[Shane Wahl]

Except that you can't really do that with the Twins because chances are, your other catcher (Joe Mauer) is the DH. If your second catcher goes down, you lose the DH. Now, that doesn't matter to someone like me. I think the Twins should carry two catchers because losing the DH doesn't matter for two innings in a game where your catcher gets injured. The Twins obviously feel differently about it.

 

So if you're willing to pinch-hit for your backup catcher on a two catcher roster, it's no different than inserting two catchers into the lineup at the same time, which renders Butera off both rosters. So, in the thinking of the Twins, you either refuse to pinch-hit for your backup catcher on a two catcher roster or you carry a third catcher for that inevitable emergency that never seems to actually happen.

 

 

 

 

See above. With or without Doumit, the Twins would probably carry a third catcher because Mauer plays nearly every day and whether Doumit is a good defensive catcher is irrelevant. See 2008 and 2009 when Joe Mauer was playing 120+ games at catcher. You either leave Mauer on the bench (a huge offensive loss) or you refuse to pinch-hit for Mike Redmond and his woeful bat, period. The rest of the bench played virtually no role in that decision. It was all about Mauer and not losing that precious DH spot for an inning or two if an injury occurred.

 

This has everything to do with the Twins' ideas on how to build a roster around Joe Mauer, not Ryan Doumit.

 

Exactly right and thoroughly addressed! Hopefully Chris Herrmann steps up and makes having a third catcher on the roster actually sensible. Because it is NOT sensible now.

[Shane Wahl]

In fairness to the IP thing, other than WAR (of course), if there were one stat category that I could magically see for the 2013 season, I probably would pick IP for perhaps every one on this staff. That would be informative about how things went. Perhaps the same can be said for the batters and plate appearances.

[twinsnorth49]

Then it just goes to show that a high IP total is simply a byproduct of being a good pitcher. It is the other factors, high K/9, keeping runners off base, keeping zero's on the board, that make a pitcher good. The high innings pitched simply is the result of those factors. It doesn't work the other way around. Having a high IP doesn't prevent baserunners or runs or produce a higher K%.

 

This

[roger]

With the amount of criticism you repeatedly dish out regarding Butera, assistant coaches, etc, I do wonder if you have a fundamental understanding of what things are actually important to making a baseball team win.

 

In the mind of Twins' personnel, Butera has done his job and met their expectations over the last few of years. To them he has earned the job and it is not a scholarship. You can disagree and lament his crappy bat all you want, but that's how it is. Probably best to come to terms with this reality.

 

Thanks Nick!

[ashbury]

Not nit picking. but isn't hitting for more power hitting better?

 

OK, that's another way of stating my objection to how Terry Ryan phrased it: leave out the words in his sentence that came after "better". But I don't think that is what he meant, he really meant it was the RISP situations that defines the problem, and not power hitting in all situations. Hitting for more power means more situations where RISP means "man on second" instead of "man on first", all of which tends to get lumped in together in a way that obscures rather than clarifies. And hitting for more power can mean a homer which clears the bases, thus eliminating a RISP opportunity at all.

[raindog]

If I wanted to trade a guy and keep his value high, I would say that he is "an integral part of this team", "would love to sign him long term", "he is a clubhouse leader" and all those kind of cliches that Ryan is saying about Morneau.

 

Yes, because opposing GMs are going to look back at this obscure local interview before the trade deadline.

[Thrylos]

With the amount of criticism you repeatedly dish out regarding Butera, assistant coaches, etc, I do wonder if you have a fundamental understanding of what things are actually important to making a baseball team win.

 

In the mind of Twins' personnel, Butera has done his job and met their expectations over the last few of years. To them he has earned the job and it is not a scholarship. You can disagree and lament his crappy bat all you want, but that's how it is. Probably best to come to terms with this reality.

 

I guess you must have a "fundamental understanding of what things are actually important to making a baseball team win.". So, could you please let us all know the last team that carried a no-hit average field 3rd C, which ended up wining a World Series?

 

The Ryan and Gardehire Twins' teams have not won, so I do not trust the current Twins' personnel to make decisions that translate to winning. They never did. And Ryan has been around and in change for almost 20 years (minus the years Smith was the titular head)

 

I know that this is the current (for the last 20 years) Twins' reality, but sue me for not liking it.

[Riverbrian]

Then it just goes to show that a high IP total is simply a byproduct of being a good pitcher. It is the other factors, high K/9, keeping runners off base, keeping zero's on the board, that make a pitcher good. The high innings pitched simply is the result of those factors. It doesn't work the other way around. Having a high IP doesn't prevent baserunners or runs or produce a higher K%.

 

I get that and I don't disagree...

 

You are right... Having a high IP does not prevent base runners or runs or produce a higher K rate... It is a by product of good pitching just like you say... But... Low ERA or WHIP is also a by product of good pitching in a similar way.

 

Low ERA and WHIP... and IP are all stats that suggest that base runners and runs have been prevented. At least with IP you can add health and Manager confidence to the equation.

 

Im not on mission to defend the hypothesis of drjim... I'm just saying that I can see where he is coming from. IP is not a meaningless or throw away stat. It has tremendous value in my mind both directly and indirectly.

[TheLeviathan]

Are runs and outs not the two most important stats in baseball? IP is the measure of how many outs you get..

 

Right, so why leave out the other half about how many runs they allowed. ERA, as just an immediate example, factors both innings and runs allowed. There are other pitching stats that do much the same.

 

Innings pitched isn't a very good catch-all stat because many times innings are pitched for reasons other than the talent or performance of the pitcher. Like, for example, an exhausted bullpen. Or injuries. Did Blackburn, Liriano, and Duensing pitch almost 100 innings last year because they were good pitchers?

 

Durability is good, but you want durability from players that are talented and effective. Durability can be trained, talent is much harder.

[ashbury]

Now, that doesn't matter to someone like me. I think the Twins should carry two catchers because losing the DH doesn't matter for two innings in a game where your catcher gets injured. The Twins obviously feel differently about it.

 

Shucks, I thought this was the hotline to the Twins front office, where I could tell them what to do. If the Twins are going to do things their own way regardless of my preferences, I guess there's no point in discussing what-ifs.

 

With or without Doumit, the Twins would probably carry a third catcher because Mauer plays nearly every day and whether Doumit is a good defensive catcher is irrelevant.

 

With a good-glove weak-stick backup catcher, you would designate some utility infielder as your emergency backup catcher, and pick a better hitter for your last bench spot, who could have more of an impact on games than Drew Butera is ever allowed to have.

 

This has everything to do with the Twins' ideas on how to build a roster around Joe Mauer, not Ryan Doumit.

 

I have not been one of the stick-bangers about Mauer's contract. But this observation causes me to re-consider how wise his contract is. A contract for 15+ million kind of says to me "plug him into the lineup and forget about him, that spot is set barring injury". Can't do that with a catcher, he is going to have days off. Kind of a dilemma when you draft a top-talent catcher in the first place - are you setting yourself up for years and years of this kind of roster juggling that you wouldn't face with an ordinary starter and a typical backup? In the abstract you say "hey, it's a problem anyone would like to have." But in the concrete, you have a third catcher taking up space on the bench and rarely appearing in games.

[drjim]

Right, so why leave out the other half about how many runs they allowed. ERA, as just an immediate example, factors both innings and runs allowed. There are other pitching stats that do much the same.

 

Innings pitched isn't a very good catch-all stat because many times innings are pitched for reasons other than the talent or performance of the pitcher. Like, for example, an exhausted bullpen. Or injuries. Did Blackburn, Liriano, and Duensing pitch almost 100 innings last year because they were good pitchers?

 

Durability is good, but you want durability from players that are talented and effective. Durability can be trained, talent is much harder.

 

You are right in all of this. I would never suggest IP is a catch-all stat or the only stat, just the most important stat for a starting pitcher. ERA is probably second, but in my opinion tells less of a story than IP.

 

To bring it back to Ryan and the Twins, I think one reason they valued Correia is that they felt he had a good chance of going 200 innings, in that he had a higher probability to stay healthy and would be somewhat effective enough to grind out that many innings. I don't think they expect him to be dominant in those innings by any stretch. Given the state of the rotation, especially in light of the fiasco of last season, I can appreciate this thinking. I don't necessarily agree as I would have preferred the upside of McCarthy and/or Marcum, even if they were lesser bets to stay healthy.

 

If you had weak pitching depth, would you rather have 190 ip of 4.35 era or 130 ip of 3.35 era? I would probably take the first option, even though in many ways he is probably a lesser pitcher.

[TheLeviathan]

ERA is probably second, but in my opinion tells less of a story than IP.

 

What story though? If you're looking at the story of how good the pitcher is, I think IP tells very little without the rest of the stats.

 

If you had weak pitching depth, would you rather have 190 ip of 4.35 era or 130 ip of 3.35 era? I would probably take the first option, even though in many ways he is probably a lesser pitcher.

 

I agree about why the Twins did this, that's part of my frustration. The issue is here that the Twins don't lack "depth" - they have equally cruddy options to Correia, we saw them marched out many times last year. What the Twins lack is talent...hence why it's so frustrating to see them continue to prize durability over effectivenes.

[Thrylos]

You are right in all of this. I would never suggest IP is a catch-all stat or the only stat, just the most important stat for a starting pitcher. ERA is probably second, but in my opinion tells less of a story than IP.

 

here are 4 mediocre pitchers on the leaderboards for IP for 2012

 

Justin Masterson: 206.1 IP, 4.93 ERA, 1.454 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 1.81 K/BB

Jon Lester: 205.1 IP, 4.82 ERA, 1.383 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 2.44 K/BB

Ian Kennedy: 208.1 IP, 4.02 ERA, 1.301 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, 3.40 K/BB

Clayton Richard: 218.2 IP, 3.99 ERA, 1.235 WHIP, 4.4 K/9, 2.55 K/BB

 

and this blast from the near past, closer to home

 

2011 Carl Pavano: 222 IP, 4.30 ERA, 1.360 WHIP, 4.1 K/9, 2.55 K/BB

 

Do those exceptional IPs made them good pitchers?

No.

 

Compare those numbers with those of the kid from Washington they "shut down" per club's choice.

Who is the better pitcher?

[Kwak]

You are right in all of this. I would never suggest IP is a catch-all stat or the only stat, just the most important stat for a starting pitcher. ERA is probably second, but in my opinion tells less of a story than IP.

 

To bring it back to Ryan and the Twins, I think one reason they valued Correia is that they felt he had a good chance of going 200 innings, in that he had a higher probability to stay healthy and would be somewhat effective enough to grind out that many innings. I don't think they expect him to be dominant in those innings by any stretch. Given the state of the rotation, especially in light of the fiasco of last season, I can appreciate this thinking. I don't necessarily agree as I would have preferred the upside of McCarthy and/or Marcum, even if they were lesser bets to stay healthy.

 

If you had weak pitching depth, would you rather have 190 ip of 4.35 era or 130 ip of 3.35 era? I would probably take the first option, even though in many ways he is probably a lesser pitcher.

 

Take your comment about Corriera and 200 innings, add Ryan's response of "health" to the question of what is demanded of the new rotation and toss in the poster's conclusion (which I'm inclined to think is the Twins' as well) that Butera "is meeting expectations" and what do we have? Nothing about excellence. Health? Really is that it? "Innings-eater"--does that term imply anything more than long-term mediocrity? There is no further need to delve into Butera's performance--excellence doesn't apply. The conclusion? Despite all of the nice words about competing in 2013 the reality of the makeup of the roster and what has been "demanded" is actually: "Just get through this year, don't get hurt, and don't do anything stupid".

[ThePuck]

What story though? If you're looking at the story of how good the pitcher is, I think IP tells very little without the rest of the stats.

 

 

 

I agree about why the Twins did this, that's part of my frustration. The issue is here that the Twins don't lack "depth" - they have equally cruddy options to Correia, we saw them marched out many times last year. What the Twins lack is talent...hence why it's so frustrating to see them continue to prize durability over effectivenes.

 

Unfortunately, for a team that values durability over effectiveness, they went out and got players who aren't durable...I mean, besides their worst acquisition (Correia)...and didn't get Saunders who is both effective and durable...

[ThePuck]

The following post was written by another Twins fan but it matches my views and couldn't have written it better myself:

 

If TR is going to blame 2011 on injuries, why on Earth is he building a rotation around surgery rehabs? Four of the projected starters are coming off of some of kind of operation, how does that make any sense at all? Not to mention that Correia is just plain awful. I do like Diamond, but his numbers didn't hold up over the second half, which is generally how it works for a lot of pitchers, once the hitters have seen your stuff, it's easier to hit it. I like the Harden signing, but let's see him break camp before we speculate on his role. I understand where this organization is from a rebuilding standpoint, but you can't call what's listed here a competetive lineup, and that's far from an effective rotation. Payroll is below $80 million, and the FO gets extremely defensive when the question is brought up, which rightfully raises an eyebrow. Either the FO sincerely thinks this questionable roster will win more than 70 games, or they just don't want to own up the disaster this franchise has become. Either scenario makes me a little bit sad, and I personally think it's a little bit of both.

[twinsnorth49]

You are right in all of this. I would never suggest IP is a catch-all stat or the only stat, just the most important stat for a starting pitcher. ERA is probably second, but in my opinion tells less of a story than IP.

 

Pitcher A, 200 IP, 7.2 K/9, 3.50 ERA. Pitcher B, 200 IP, 5.6 K/9, 5.25 ERA

 

How is IP the most important stat here?

[FrodaddyG]

Pitcher A, 200 IP, 7.2 K/9, 3.50 ERA. Pitcher B, 200 IP, 5.6 K/9, 5.25 ERA

 

How is IP the most important stat here?

Equally useful pieces, obviously.

[Alex]

I think you're at risk of turning stats-speak orthodoxy into a shibboleth.

 

It was about as casual a mention of what Morneau offers a lineup as a GM could possibly muster. Moreover, it answers the specific question about Morneau's longterm future in Minnesota because it affirms his value to the team. RBI aren't a good way to measure an individual player's value, but whenever the next competitive Twins team takes the field they will assuredly need runs to be driven in. More simply put, he's talking about driving in runs as an ends and not a means. This isn't Tony Batista* here. Morneau was a 5 win player went he went down mid-season in 2010. I think Terry Ryan is aware of what makes Justin Morneau a good hitter.

 

*see what I did there. it's a defense of the conversation whilst acknowledging that the organization has run in some screwy ways before. if you want to beef with acquisitions, go right ahead. but "drive in runs" is a perfectly valid, if slightly lazy shorthand for describing how somebody can benefit a team offensively.

 

I think that's a fair point and probably is what he meant (and why I asked), it's just that references to that I hear from the front office are almost always behind what a lot of other teams are doing in terms of statistics. I'd like to find something that's heading that direction in their comments, I guess.

[Alex]

Despite all of the advanced stats to describe individual performances, it is still a team game. Players have roles. Morneau's role is to drive in runs. If he does that, all the rest of the statistics you want to hear will happen.

 

I actually think it's the opposite. If he hits better in general, the driving in runs thing will happen more often. Or, if he were to come up more often with runners on base, that would help, too.

[Twins Twerp]

I probably read too much into things, but Ryan's focus on Morneau driving in runs does not do much to persuade me they've moved beyond antiquated stats.

 

Sounds better than I hope he has an above average obp+ with a solid iso power rating. The article wasn't for twins daily but a newspaper and since only gpas read newspapers with there morning viagra and oj, using saber stats would have been a bad idea.

[Seth Stohs]

I would say that Innings Pitched are not the most important statistic, but if anyone thinks they aren't very, very valuable to a baseball team, my opinion is that they're wrong.

 

And, I see Butera as the backup catcher, and most teams that win in the playoffs and in the World Series have a not-so-great backup catcher. I see Mauer as the #1 catcher, Doumit as the #2 catcher and Butera as the backup catcher on any day. Likewise, I see Doumit as the #1 DH and Mauer as a #2 DH.

[TheLeviathan]

I would say that Innings Pitched are not the most important statistic, but if anyone thinks they aren't very, very valuable to a baseball team, my opinion is that they're wrong. .

 

I don't think that's the argument. The problem with innings pitched is that they tell you nothing about how effective the pitcher was. You might be able to make some kind of reasonable guess about how effective they were, but it's still just a guess. Good evaluation of a pitcher needs to measure both their innings logged and their effectiveness.

 

I think, in part, this is the Twins problem. They're more worried about health than talent. Bad players who are healthy are still bad players.

[Thrylos]

I see Butera as the backup catcher, and most teams that win in the playoffs and in the World Series have a not-so-great backup catcher. I see Mauer as the #1 catcher, Doumit as the #2 catcher and Butera as the backup catcher on any day.

 

That would make Doumit the backup catcher and Butera the backup of the backup, not? Butera the #3...

(how many WS winners have a #3 or a backup backup C instead of a useful bat off the bench?)