Article: Brian Dozier Learned from 2012, Looks Forward to 2013

[lee_the_twins_fan]

Bartlett is still out there. Should we go after him?

[ashbury]

I assume that that the 2 you are referring to were Hardy and Bartlett. With both of those, I don't recall Gardy disliking either of them.

 

He did have an issue with Garza and he and Bartlett were packaged to bring in Young, but I don't think that Gardy had an issue with Bartlett.

 

Gardy on the other hand did have in issue with Hardy, and that he was too slow and often injured.

 

Gardy's dislike may not have been personal, but he disliked aspects of both shortstops' game to the extent that it was widely assumed at the time of each trade that he had instigated for it.

[Top Gun]

Rays signed 2B Kelly Johnson to a one-year, $2.45 million contract.

 

It's a low-risk deal for Tampa Bay that could potentially yield some high rewards. Johnson hit just .255/.313/.365 in 581 plate appearances last season for the Blue Jays but he has good power and his steady presence at second base will allow Ben Zobrist to exercise his defensive versatility. Johnson may be worth snagging in the later rounds of mixed league fantasy drafts this spring.

[Top Gun]

Rays designated SS Elliot Johnson for assignment.

 

The Rays also designated Reid Brignac for assignment on Tuesday, leaving Yunel Escobar on his own at the top of the shortstop depth chart. Johnson, 28, hit just .242/.304/.350 with six home runs and 33 RBI in 331 plate appearances last season for Tampa Bay.

 

Source: Marc Topkin on Twitter

[FrodaddyG]

Rays signed 2B Kelly Johnson to a one-year, $2.45 million contract.

 

It's a low-risk deal for Tampa Bay that could potentially yield some high rewards. Johnson hit just .255/.313/.365 in 581 plate appearances last season for the Blue Jays but he has good power and his steady presence at second base will allow Ben Zobrist to exercise his defensive versatility. Johnson may be worth snagging in the later rounds of mixed league fantasy drafts this spring.

Yeah, Dozier!!! Woo!!!

 

Wait, what?

[Willihammer]

Sheesh, how did that happen? Again, the Twins, just one of many to miss out there.

[LaBombo]

Encouraging indeed, because finding merely an average CF or SS is not that easy to do. Dozier doesn't need to become a star in order to have a huge impact on his team, much like I always viewed Greg Gagne as crucial to the championship teams.

 

I had avoided comparing Dozier to Gagne because I'm not sure his defensive ceiling at short will approach what I remember Gagne's ability being, which was maybe just shy of Gold Glove, but very good. He had the disadvantage of his entire career overlapping that of HOF'ers Cal Ripken and Ozzie Smith. Gagne was an above average player, but because he didn't hit 25 dingers a year or perform two cartwheels and a triple Lutz before every throw to first, he was never really given his due. And you're exactly right, quality regulars like Gagne are every bit the building block of champions that star players are.

 

So defense aside, here's Dozier's James projection again next to Gagne's career average:

 

BD: .253/.300/.372

GG: .254/.302/.382

 

And since it doesn't seem like Dozier shares Gagne's frustrating propensity to chase bad pitches all the way into the stands if necessary to get a bad swing at them, I think 'Dozie' stands to regain some of his 10% or so walk rate from the minors and maybe boost his OBP 10 or even 20 points. That, combined with average or slightly better D at short, would add up to a fine ballplayer, and ease much of the pain of the decade-long revolving door at shortstop. Fingers crossed.

[LaBombo]

Sheesh, how did that happen? Again, the Twins, just one of many to miss out there.

 

Unbelievable. One year deal, chump change, at least an outside chance for a bounceback season, and a leftie who could platoon with Dozier (.500 slugging pct. vs. lefties last year) if Dozier can't handle shortstop. Wouldn't want to block incoming titans like Escobar and Florimon, I guess.

[ashbury]

I had avoided comparing Dozier to Gagne because I'm not sure his defensive ceiling at short will approach what I remember Gagne's ability being, which was maybe just shy of Gold Glove, but very good.

 

My recollection isn't quite the same, that he had his detractors where it came to range, versus the very best of his peers of course. But he was the embodiment of the Twins Way to make sure to make 99% of the routine plays and let the other guys worry about the spectacular plays. Florimon seems to be the opposite of that, I'm not sure where Dozier comes on that spectrum.

 

Gagne was an above average player, but because he didn't hit 25 dingers a year or perform two cartwheels and a triple Lutz before every throw to first, he was never really given his due.

 

When I alluded to "average" CF or SS, I meant starters. Among the full list of major league SS, Gagne definitely was above average.

 

And you're exactly right, quality regulars like Gagne

 

Yeah, that's what he was. A quality regular. Quality. He certainly was a batter that a pitcher could "pitch to", but he also was a batter who could hurt the pitcher who ever took him for granted.

 

I checked their heights and weights on baseball-reference.com: Dozier and Gagne are both listed at 5'11" and their weights are 5 pounds apart. Early, but there's a chance for a wickedly close comp between these two players.

[FrodaddyG]

I checked their heights and weights on baseball-reference.com: Dozier and Gagne are both listed at 5'11" and their weights are 5 pounds apart. Early, but there's a chance for a wickedly close comp between these two players.

Oh no, this could revive the "Berrios as Pedro Martinez 2.0" talk.

[LaBombo]

My recollection isn't quite the same, that he had his detractors where it came to range, versus the very best of his peers of course. But he was the embodiment of the Twins Way to make sure to make 99% of the routine plays and let the other guys worry about the spectacular plays. Florimon seems to be the opposite of that, I'm not sure where Dozier comes on that spectrum.

 

When I alluded to "average" CF or SS, I meant starters. Among the full list of major league SS, Gagne definitely was above average.

 

Our recollection is actually very similar, it's just that I was making a slightly different point. Gagne's defensive rep varied somewhat, but basically I remember it like this: Average range that grew, either in practice or just by reputation, to above average. Excellent hands and positional awareness, and one of the best shortstop arms in either league.

 

While admittedly limited as a stat, Gagne's Range Factor per 9 innings history exactly mirrors the perceived mid-career increase to significantly above league-average range, for what it's worth. Fielding runs above average shows his defense was about 7 or 8 runs better per season than the rest of the league on average. And despite his hacktastic approach at the plate, he managed about 2.5 to 3 wins above replacement per season throughout his prime.

 

My point was that because Gagne played in the era of Ripken, Ozzie, and Barry Larkin, "above average" looked fairly pedestrian by comparision.

 

To lend a little more historical context, there are only 12 modern-era shortstops elected by the BBWA to the Hall of Fame. That's almost exactly one per decade. Gagne played almost his entire career with 3 of those 12 guys in the league and in their primes. It set the shortstop bar for Gagne's era ridiculously high, and made it harder to appreciate how good he was despite being nowhere near the players they were.

 

Interesting note on the physical similarity. Haven't seen Dozier in person, but my impression was that he is stockier than the whippet-lean Gagne. May have something to do with today's uniforms. Gagne was probably a better athlete with just a bit more power and speed, plus a much better arm. But I'm hoping Dozier regains his minor-league batting form and end up with the better eye at the plate, and that would go a long way toward closing the gap in their values.

[70charger]

Oh no, this could revive the "Berrios as Pedro Martinez 2.0" talk.

 

Look, I don't want to get anybody excited here, because I still have a lot to prove, and because Pedro Martinez was a great pitcher. But I've recently thrown a baseball, and Pedro Martinez has also thrown baseballs. Just sayin'.

 

 

Kidding, I actually hope the Dozier to Gagne comp becomes a thing.

[ashbury]

Kidding, I actually hope the Dozier to Gagne comp becomes a thing.

 

Yep. If some scout says of a shortstop prospect, "his ceiling is Greg Gagne," probably anyone would say "sign him!"

 

As for the height/weight comp, I don't know at what point in a career b-r.com lists the measurements for, and if it was late in Gagne's career (and early in Dozier's perforce) then since Brian already is 5 pounds higher the physical comp may not hold up. Having a relative beanpole like the Florimonster on the roster probably warps my thinking.

[stringer bell]

Gagne is one of my all-time favorite Twins. He developed into a very solid ballplayer, but one that never was able to maximize his tools. I don't see Dozier as being as gifted athletically as Gags, but it is possible he could be as good a ballplayer.

[stringer bell]

mlbtraderumors.com says that the Twins are interested in Reid Brignac. From what I've seen, he is a very good fielder with a poor bat. He did have one good year with the Rays when he hit above .250 (.692 OPS in 2010). Worth a shot?

[TheLeviathan]

mlbtraderumors.com says that the Twins are interested in Reid Brignac. From what I've seen, he is a very good fielder with a poor bat. He did have one good year with the Rays when he hit above .250 (.692 OPS in 2010). Worth a shot?

 

Sounds like our kind of guy.

[Nick Nelson]

Brignac would actually be pretty intriguing. Was a BA Top 100 prospect for four straight years and at one point was projected to have a pretty good bat. He's been really, really awful the past couple years and it seems fairly safe to write him off as a bust, but he's still only 27. I'd certainly take his upside over Florimon's.

[PseudoSABR]

Brignac would actually be pretty intriguing. Was a BA Top 100 prospect for four straight years and at one point was projected to have a pretty good bat. He's been really, really awful the past couple years and it seems fairly safe to write him off as a bust, but he's still only 27. I'd certainly take his upside over Florimon's.

Right. I wonder what happened with him.

[FrodaddyG]

Right. I wonder what happened with him.

All the scouting reports I found seem to omit this most important piece of information, but is there any word on whether he can "really get after it out there" and /or "pick it real good"?

[snepp]

Is he athletic enough?

[ashbury]

All the scouting reports I found seem to omit this most important piece of information, but is there any word on whether he can "really get after it out there" and /or "pick it real good"?

 

As long as he shows he wants to play, and handles himself good out there, you'd like to give him a month and see what happens.