Article: Inefficient Managing of "Dollars and Years"

[Brock Beauchamp]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1345-Inefficient-Managing-of-Dollars-and-Years

[Seth Stohs]

If Jamey Carroll gets those 401 plate appearances, I'll happily hand him the $2 million next year. I have 0 problem with Jamey Carroll. His batting average was down a little last year, but his walk rate was pretty similar, and he really is a steady, solid player in the infield. yeah, he'll be 39 this year, but if he gets through it healthy (and hence reaches the PA number), then there's no reason to believe someone that keeps himself in such great shape can't be a solid utility player in 2013.

 

I've always (maybe inexplicably) liked Ronny Cedeno, but he'll likely be available again next season if the Twins need a utility infielder.

 

I also like Eduardo Escobar as a utility guy and think he can be fine in that role for a long time.

 

I'm definitely in agreement that I don't think that Florimon will be very good with the bat. I don't think anyone would disagree.

 

I do believe that Brian Dozier will prove himself to be a solid MLB player. Not great, but solid. If you have Dozier and Carroll up the middle, with Escobar playing all three infield spots, I'm comfortable with that. I'm also OK with giving Florimon more of an opportunity.

 

I went into the offseason thinking pitching-pitching-pitching, so I never placed any emphasis on the middle infield. I wouldn't have spent any extra dollars there. I would have spent more on SP, but I get what they did there too (with the Correia exception, of course).

[Brock Beauchamp]

No matter what, I think Brian Dozier will get his reps. Picking up another FA wouldn't negatively impact him too much. Escobar may be a decent utility guy but let's be honest here... Those guys grow on trees.

 

And what's the worst that could happen? You end up with a few too many bodies and dangle somebody at the deadline. On the other hand, the Twins could be looking at a terrible middle infield if Dozier continues to collapse and Florimon can't hit his way out of a paper bag.

 

Which also enacts the player option for Carroll in 2014. Again, Carroll isn't a bad player but no matter how well he plays, that team option stays in place for 2014 but for a very small amount of money, you can prevent being on the hook for what could be a really bad player option.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Dozier should get a shot, yes, but I'd have to think he'd be better served by getting some PT and confidence in AAA before coming back. The big issue I see is that this 2014/15 team will still suck up the middle... Maybe the draft will change this, but even that Cuban defector will likely not be playing in MLB by 2015

[Seth Stohs]

Escobar may be a decent utility guy but let's be honest here... Those guys grow on trees.

 

Yes, but he'll make $490,000. The veteran utility guys cost $1-2.5 million. Why spend the extra.

 

Which also enacts the player option for Carroll in 2014. Again, Carroll isn't a bad player but no matter how well he plays, that team option stays in place for 2014 but for a very small amount of money, you can prevent being on the hook for what could be a really bad player option.

 

1 year, $2M?? At worst, he'll be overpaid like $0.5M. If he plays more than 'just a utility role, $2M is nothing. I'd say Jamey Carroll is the least of the Twins middle infield worries.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 year, $2M?? At worst, he'll be overpaid like $0.5M. If he plays more than 'just a utility role, $2M is nothing. I'd say Jamey Carroll is the least of the Twins middle infield worries.

 

Let's say the Twins picked up Kelly Johnson for whatever the Rays are paying him (probably between $1.5-2m). That's Carroll's player/team option amount in 2014. Sure, it's not a lot of money but it's indicative of the problem with this offseason and that's inefficient use of the free agent market.

 

What if Carroll tanks in 2013 but given the continued struggles of Florimon and Dozier, is still run out there for 450 PAs? That means the Twins have a wasted roster spot eating up $2m in 2014 that they could have easily avoided by picking up another player to complement their middle infield. If Carroll continues to play well, good for the Twins. Then they enact the 2014 team option and keep him around for another year.

 

There is virtually no risk in picking up a $2m middle infielder for 2013 because they have the money and they have the need. But as it stands now, that money could easily become a sunk cost on an old player who is no longer worth the space on a Major League roster.

 

And that's my real problem. The team seems entirely directionless regarding the free agent market. There is no real downside to picking up a guy because he gives you a little more flexibility going into 2014 and he probably improves the 2013 squad. At that point, why not take the small risk and try to field a better team in the short-term?

[twinsfanstl]

what about offering minor league contracts to Theriot and Freddy Sanchez? Would either take it? I don't see why we wouldn't, it is not as if we are protecting superior players on the 35-40 positions on the roster....

[twinsfanstl]

btw, obviously I agree with Brock wholeheartedly

[LoganJones]

Let's say the Twins picked up Kelly Johnson for whatever the Rays are paying him (probably between $1.5-2m). That's Carroll's player/team option amount in 2014. Sure, it's not a lot of money but it's indicative of the problem with this offseason and that's inefficient use of the free agent market.?

 

What would Kelly Johnson - a not particularly good fielding left-handed, strikeout prone pull hitter - give the Twins in Target Field?

[old nurse]

The analysis of the play of 2012 is correct. The analysis of how to fix it is what? They should have done something. The free agent market appeared to have a choice between no field or no hit kind of players. They have plenty of the latter. They traded what players they had to trade for a bigger need in pitching. To get a significant upgrade by the trade route would cost them a better prospect. You did not like the inaction, so what would you have wanted them to do that is a reasonable idea?

[Brock Beauchamp]

The analysis of the play of 2012 is correct. The analysis of how to fix it is what? They should have done something. The free agent market appeared to have a choice between no field or no hit kind of players. They have plenty of the latter. They traded what players they had to trade for a bigger need in pitching. To get a significant upgrade by the trade route would cost them a better prospect. You did not like the inaction, so what would you have wanted them to do that is a reasonable idea?

 

At this point, I'm not even asking for a significant upgrade. All I'm asking for is an upgrade, period. It's virtually zero risk, as it lets the Twins out of a $2m player option for Carroll in 2014 if he doesn't perform in 2013.

 

In most cases, I'm against the "more bodies equal better team" argument but in this singular case, it makes a lot of sense because the risk is so low. All you have to do is watch Pedro Florimon for five minutes to see that he's never going to be an adequate Major League starter (there are "no hit middle infielders" and then there are the "Pedro Florimons"). Dozier is a huge question mark. After that, there's nobody worth mentioning (sorry Seth but nobody is going to snatch Escobar away from the Twins if they stash him in AAA). Adding another player allows you to shift Carroll to a reserve role and save yourself from what could be a bad player option in 2014. All it takes is one player, a player that can be had for less money than Carroll's 2014 option.

 

At that point, you have to ask yourself "Why the hell shouldn't I do this?"

[sorney]

Why I tend to lean towards Seth here, it is refreshing to have a debate about something other than the crappy pitching decisions.

[Seth Stohs]

Why I tend to lean towards Seth here, it is refreshing to have a debate about something other than the crappy pitching decisions.

 

Ha! I agree!!

[mcrow]

Yes, middle infield is one of many areas this team needs to address. I do think they're worse of at those positions than in the rotation at this point. Would have been nice to add MLB caliber infielder to the mix as of right now we're likely to have AAA level player out there at one position. I like Carroll but he is 39 and maybe would be a great bench guy but he's now forced into a role where the Twins are counting on him to produce above expectations.

[johnnydakota]

With 20 plus million still avalible ,why not make a run at Diaz?

If we acquire a shortstop , and have added 1 mlb pitcher and 2 prospects,

I would concider this off season an improvement over last years...

[righty8383]

Johnny is right. With the recent trade aquisitions, middle infield is the biggest weekness on htis team. They have Rosario for 2nd base but his defense is still a bit raw yet and he is still a couple years away anyway. We have a couple other low ceiling guys like Danny Santana and Levi Michael. Michael needs to show something this year.

 

It seems that going after Diaz is almost too logical. A couple days ago Doogie tweeted that one of his sources said the Twins were concerned about some of the projected dollar amounts that he may be offered. If the Twins aren't willing to make a competetive offer than they don't care or they are clueless IMO.

[mcrow]

With 20 plus million still avalible ,why not make a run at Diaz?

If we acquire a shortstop , and have added 1 mlb pitcher and 2 prospects,

I would concider this off season an improvement over last years...

 

Well, you know the answer to that.......they have no intentions of spending $20m more.

 

The way it looks they're going to have to spend clost to $40M between now and next season to make it to the 50% of revenue they talk about.

[FrodaddyG]

The analysis of how to fix it is what?

There's only one man to call:

[Physics Guy]

 

I've always (maybe inexplicably) liked Ronny Cedeno, but he'll likely be available again next season if the Twins need a utility infielder.

 

 

I noticed Ronny Cedeno signed for 1.15M base plus 0.85 in incentives. That sure would have been a cheap insurance policy against Florimon falling on his face. I think Florimon has a chance to be a decent fielder, but his sub-70 OPS+ sure is a black hole at the bottom of the lineup. I guess I can live with one, but that assumes 2B and CF are decent (hopefully Dozier and Hicks).

[LoganJones]

Ronny Cedeno's career OPS plus is 71. What insurance does he provide over Florimon?

[Winston Smith]

TR has stated in the last week that he fully expects to compete and be a contender into the fall. He clearly either thinks 20m of payroll in hand isn't needed to field a quality team or he thinks we might all have our stocking caps pulled firmly down over our eyes and will continue to buy tickets and hot dogs no matter how bad they may be.

[Brandon]

I would feel beeter if they signed Theriot to a minor league deal. My biggest concern is that Florimon is not goint to work out at SS so having someone to fill in would be a good idea. I think Dozier could be successful. But i am not convinced. Carroll can only play one of the 2 positions. As for Carroll, I hope his option vests. He is solid enough so as not to be wasting money. the Twins have the money to burn.

 

I was hoping the Twins would have signed one MI to a contract (Sanchez, Johnson Theriot, Izturas, to name a few) so only one of Dozier/ Florimon is exposed at a time. Let Florimon show he can play up here before bringing Dozier back.

[Brock Beauchamp]

As for Carroll, I hope his option vests. He is solid enough so as not to be wasting money. the Twins have the money to burn.

 

There is no reason to hope Carroll's option vests. No matter what happens, the Twins can always fall back to the team option they have on him if he doesn't reach 401 PAs.

[LoganJones]

TR has stated in the last week that he fully expects to compete and be a contender into the fall. He clearly either thinks 20m of payroll in hand isn't needed to field a quality team or he thinks we might all have our stocking caps pulled firmly down over our eyes and will continue to buy tickets and hot dogs no matter how bad they may be.

 

Or, he thinks the players he has in house will get the job done and that the currently unsigned (apart from Saunders, obviously) fellows are no upgrade over who might come available over the course of the spring. But I suppose the idea that he decoded to come back out of retirement just to intentionally jerk around a fanbase makes a lot more sense.

[snepp]

Hopefully both Dozier and Plouffe play acceptably (both ways), mitigating the need for Carroll to accumulate any plate appearances at those positions and rendering the vesting option moot.

[snepp]

Ronny Cedeno's career OPS plus is 71. What insurance does he provide over Florimon?

 

Didn't you berate Nick in another thread over a similarly small improvement?

 

 

 

 

(nevermind that Cedeno's recent history is an improvement over his early years, making his career mark less meaningful)

[Willihammer]

Here is my impression of how the Twins generally want to piece their teams together: you field a PTC pitching staff and defensively-skilled middle infielders to soak up the extra batted balls, since both of these groups historically are cheap, and since a high proportion of batted balls go through the middle infield. And then when you spend significant FA dollars, you spend them on sluggers in the corner positions where their defense is supposed to be less of a liability.

 

One thing I know for sure, from hearing Jr and Gardy talk about their MIfers every year, is that "we want guys to make the routine play."

 

I looked into this. There were 41 players who logged at least 1000 innings at SS since 2010. On average, those guys had 431.5 balls hit into their "zone" for every 1500 innings of work (ignoring balls out of the zone and any plays made on them). The average SS completed 350.3 plays on these in-zone balls in a season. The best SS was Brandon Crawford, with 402 in-zone plays made per 1500 Inn. And the worst was Elliot Johnson - although to be fair, the Rays use a lot of shifts and therefore move their guys around and out of their zones altogether, a lot. Just above EJ is Hanley, at 303 in-zone plays made per 1500 Inn. A spread of 99 plays over the course of a season.

 

Compare this to say, LF, where the average defender had just 254 balls hit into his zone over the same period. But, at the bottom of the scale was JD Martinez, who was good for 178 plays per season, and at the top was Austin Kearns, good for 310 plays. The spread in defensive output, over the period 2010-2012, on "routine plays," was actually greater in LF than at SS, even though more total chances are available at SS.

 

Carroll and Hardy are the only former or current Twins SS's who have played 1000 inn at SS the past 3 years. Both are above average in this regard, by 14 and 32 BIZ-plays per 1500/Inn, respectively. And in LF, Delmon is actually slighly above average, while Willingham is slightly below. In any case, there doesn't appear to be any greater benefit to having a good glove at SS, than there is at a "power" position like LF. Certainly not when it comes at the expense of hitting.

 

Furthermore, what are the ramifications of a MIfer botching a routine play? Outfielder gets the ball and the hitter gets a single. What if a LFer botches a play? What about 1B or 3B? Guy gets to 2B, or if the ball gets through on the right side, it could be a triple. So if anything, if your resources are scarce, it might be more prudent to put above averge defenders at the corners, and your slow, poor defenders up the middle.

 

Obviously the point with the Twins is that neither are their resources scarce, nor are they getting particularly fantastic defensive value out of their MI, just by having a contact-heavy pitching staff. At least, not in terms of measuring the "routine play."

 

edit: The point being, that when a power guy like Kelly Johnson comes along for cheap, and he's not a particularly lousy defender either, you take him, regardless of his position.

[jimbo92107]

When I look at the Twins starting lineup this season, I see a stopgap solution. The only established power hitters are Willingham and Morneau, and both could be gone by mid-season if a contender needs help. The middle infield I would generously describe as 'iffy,' and the pitching staff is once again a long shot at rising to mediocre.

 

The good news is, there's hope. Not at the major league level, of course, but it looks like several promising young players are bubbling up through the minor leagues, and their ETA's fall anywhere from 2013 to 2016. In light of that, I'll be watching and cheering for all kinds of teams this year, mostly in the minor leagues.

 

Go, someday maybe Twins!

[roger]

If Jamey Carroll gets those 401 plate appearances, I'll happily hand him the $2 million next year. I have 0 problem with Jamey Carroll. His batting average was down a little last year, but his walk rate was pretty similar, and he really is a steady, solid player in the infield. yeah, he'll be 39 this year, but if he gets through it healthy (and hence reaches the PA number), then there's no reason to believe someone that keeps himself in such great shape can't be a solid utility player in 2013.

 

I've always (maybe inexplicably) liked Ronny Cedeno, but he'll likely be available again next season if the Twins need a utility infielder.

 

I also like Eduardo Escobar as a utility guy and think he can be fine in that role for a long time.

 

I'm definitely in agreement that I don't think that Florimon will be very good with the bat. I don't think anyone would disagree.

 

I do believe that Brian Dozier will prove himself to be a solid MLB player. Not great, but solid. If you have Dozier and Carroll up the middle, with Escobar playing all three infield spots, I'm comfortable with that. I'm also OK with giving Florimon more of an opportunity.

 

I went into the offseason thinking pitching-pitching-pitching, so I never placed any emphasis on the middle infield. I wouldn't have spent any extra dollars there. I would have spent more on SP, but I get what they did there too (with the Correia exception, of course).

 

Thanks Seth for again being the voice of reason. I for one am so tired with all the garbage continually thrown at the front office on this site I am at the point that I hate coming here. Yet, this is the only place I can find you and what you have to say about the kids down on the farm. I guess I should listen to Bonnie and stop reading most of it.

 

As for the middle infield, I have often thought that Dozier could become 'Dustin Pedroia lite.' Before everyone cuts me to shreads, I mean a player similar to Pedroia, just not as good. I do however, see Dozier as a solid major leaguer both at the plate and in the field.

 

Maybe the best way to approach this year is to sit back and see what the Twins look like come June or July. Personally, I think they are going to surprise a lot of people. Based on what I have read here, I suspect most!

[Shane Wahl]

I really don't care too much about paying Carroll $2 million in 2014, even if he is (hopefully) forced into a full utility role. I actually wouldn't mind sending him back out to SS with Dozier getting a chance at 2B, and Florimon in the utility role. Escobar needs to get the stick going in AAA . . . having Escobar and Butera on the roster at the same time is frightening.