Article: Clearing the Path

[Seth Stohs]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1344-Clearing-the-Path

[Oldgoat_MN]

Alex Meyer pitched 39 innings in A+ ball in 2012. Trevor May pitched about 150 innings in AA with an 4.87 ERA and a WHIP of 1.450. I would think that neither will see MLB action this year unless the Twins are incredibly desperate.

On the other hand I have a high regard for your opinion. Really Seth? Might we see these guys on the major league roster this year?

[Seth Stohs]

Alex Meyer pitched 39 innings in A+ ball in 2012. Trevor May pitched about 150 innings in AA with an 4.87 ERA and a WHIP of 1.450. I would think that neither will see MLB action this year unless the Twins are incredibly desperate.

On the other hand I have a high regard for your opinion. Really Seth? Might we see these guys on the major league roster this year?

 

Maybe. May is on the 40 man roster, and if he shows better control, there's no reason to think that he won't be brought up in September. Meyer is less likely, although he has more upside. He won't (and shouldn't) be rushed. He doesn't even have to be added to the 40 man roster until after the 2014 season, so there is no reason to. That said, if his stuff comes together, he could move very fast.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I agree that the Twins need to open up roster spots for many of the kids coming through the system. I don't agree that they needed to leave open quite that much room (and fill the spots they did with incredibly lackluster players).

 

I'm actually tempted to write something about Ryan's refusal to address the middle infield situation and how it impacts the team in 2014.

[Riverbrian]

I don't think there is anything blocking either Meyer or May from advancing very quickly if they are lights out.

[Seth Stohs]

I agree that the Twins need to open up roster spots for many of the kids coming through the system. I don't agree that they needed to leave open quite that much room (and fill the spots they did with incredibly lackluster players).

 

I'm actually tempted to write something about Ryan's refusal to address the middle infield situation and how it impacts the team in 2014.

 

Yeah, the purpose of this is not at all to justify the Correia signing. I'll never understand that one. I do get the bigger picture. I am perfectly fine with not doing anything in the middle infield though.

[pajavorski]

"Clearing the path", that makes sense for outfield but who is seriously being blocked in the starting rotation? With both gibson and diamond in the rotation our starting staff has more holes than Swiss cheese. 0% chance on Alex Meyer reaching the majors this year right? And May has some control issues to work out and has not pitched that much in AA. I am fine with the twins not spending cash on a lost 2013 season but that saved money better be allocated to free agent spending in the 2014-2015 time frame to patch the holes and field a true contender. We are going to most likely need two infielders and a quality second tier pitcher or two.

[Seth Stohs]

"Clearing the path", that makes sense for outfield but who is seriously being blocked in the starting rotation? With both gibson and diamond in the rotation our starting staff has more holes than Swiss cheese. 0% chance on Alex Meyer reaching the majors this year right? And May has some control issues to work out and has not pitched that much in AA. I am fine with the twins not spending cash on a lost 2013 season but that saved money better be allocated to free agent spending in the 2014-2015 time frame to patch the holes and field a true contender. We are going to most likely need two infielders and a quality second tier pitcher or two.

 

No one is blocking them. That's the point. And, at the end of the year, we'll find out if they need two infielders, one, none... Plouffe, Dozier, etc., will get the opportunity to show if they can be part of the plans for 2014, 2015, etc.

[Top Gun]

Trade Justin and we will probably need all four.

[h2oface]

If we can all agree? Settle for might be the better question. This lull didn't have to happen. It was orchestrated by bad management, which is virtually the same as it ever was. (Sure, one can contend that Bill Smith was his own person and some of the management was different, and that he wasn't just a different guy wearing the same suit, but I can't.) How did i/we get here? Watching the days go by..........

[Jeff P]

I agree with what you are saying and I am not as upset about the lack of high end FA signings as many Twins fans are, but logical next step is that the Twins should not sign anyone next year either. Most of the guys you list will either be making their debut in 2014 or will need to be given a chance to learn from their experiences in 2013. It seems like next year is a more important year to let guys play and see what they can do.

 

Maybe the lack of FA signings won't be so bad because at least then many of the top prospects will be in MN, part of the frustration as a fan is that even though the bases have been cleared, realistically we won't see a bunch of these guys until later in the year or not at all. Again I understand why, but let's face it, this is going to be a tough year for the fans who are paying big money to watch a bad team with a bunch of guys who won't be here in two years.

[Seth Stohs]

If we can all agree? Settle for might be the better question. This lull didn't have to happen. It was orchestrated by bad management, which is virtually the same as it ever was. (Sure, one can contend that Bill Smith was his own person and some of the management was different, and that we wasn't just a different guy wearing the same suit, but I can't.) How did i/we get here? Watching the days go by..........

 

Fair enough, but obviously the Twins front office has to move past that and do what they believe is the best thing for the long-term for the Twins. Twins FANS don't have to move past it, but it is the reality. They can't take back certain moves or picks, they can only go forward.

[PopRiveter]

I would've written a different list. I know the fast-track can work (Meyer has already had success at A+, and could see some mlb time if he dominates at AA this season,) but I think it is much more likely that some of the guys who have already debuted will progress to greater levels of production. Almost all players have a season or 2 of adjusting at the mlb level before they are stable players.These guys have already had those seasons:

Sam Deduno

Cole Devries

Liam Hendriks

Casey Fien

Anthony Swarzak

Chris Parmelee

Trevor Plouffe

Joe Benson

Darin Mastroianni

Brian Dozier

Alex Burnett

-all have seen some mlb time and offer their own reasons for hope, but would need to perform better than they ever have in the majors to be considered an asset. These are the guys who seem to be at the age and the point in their development that they will either excel and make a real impact, or falter and disappear.

Last year, Diamond/Revere were at that point and established himself. Plouffe/Fein kind of did. Valencia/Hughes were at that make-or-break point and he broke.

When I look at this list, I see some reasons for hope, but not many reasons for solid faith. I can easily imagine Plouffe going the way of Valencia, Dozier going the way of Luke Hughes, Chris Parmelee going the way of Brian Buchanan, Sam Deduno going the way of Willie Banks (sorry I couldn't come up with a more recent comp)...

 

I hope a couple of these guys will find a ceiling higher than role-player as I think it there is an even slimmer chance that Gibson, Hicks, Arcia or May are going to be big impact players in 2013. I'll be happy if they get a chance to see some time on the big field and start to acclimate themselves. They are the hope of 2014 to me.

[Jim Crikket]

Seth, I'll agree that you don't want to block your "top prospects," but I can't go along with the concept that guys who have merely "somewhat graduated" from minor league ball (whether that means they'll soon be at risk to being lost to other teams or that they've simply not demonstrably failed at the higher minor league levels) really "deserve" regular playing time at the MLB level.

 

The argument that you don't block a young player should only apply when that player has shown a high likelihood of above average success in the Big Leagues. Someone who merely is graduating from the minors shouldn't feel entitled to a spot. If the Twins FO can find affordable veteran players that, in their judgement, are better ballplayers at a given position of need, those players should be acquired.

 

In the Twins' past, those graduating minor leaguers with mediocre talent would inherit jobs because they were inexpensive and that factor alone kept the under-funded organization from being able to acquire better talent. But that should no longer be the sole determining factor.

 

If a AA or AAA player wants a regular job on the Big League club, he should go out and prove he's a good bet to be better than anyone the team might be able to acquire via trade or free agency. If he can't do that, he shouldn't feel he "deserves" to have a path cleared for him on the Twins.

[johnnydakota]

My question is why didnt we acquire 1 or 2 quality free agents , and then trade them come july,adding to our prospects? As well i question not taking Lara with a 2nd pick in the rule 5 draft. It would be nice to have a 98mph lefty avalible coming out of the pen , rather then Robertsons 5.40 ERA

[Seth Stohs]

I dont' think I said that any of the players have said they 'deserved' to be handed a job. I talked to Benson, Parmelee, Hendriks, Gibson, Dozier and Hicks and none of them have said they should be or will be handed anything. They know they have to earn it.

[tmerrickkeller]

Given the "clearing the path" theme, I certainly see a justification for these moves. If you are Pollyanna (and I am) there is pitching potential, outfield potential, and bounceback potential all over the place. Except one. And it's the one Seth acknowledges.

 

Pedro Florimon has had a long time in the minors to develop, and has never hit. He is a flashy fielder, but makes way too many mistakes to overcome his weak bat. He's (most likely) not going to start hitting. And more importantly, we don't have any almost-ready middle infielders that he is blocking, probably for 2 years. Given the payroll, finding a solid SS on a 2-year deal would have made sense all around (still would, if any were available).

 

As we put batting lineups together for 2013, the glaring holes are at #1 and #2, and we're hoping against hope that whoever mans CF can be one of those (which is a lot of pressure on Mastroanni, Benson, or Hicks), but without moving Mauer up to #2 (which isn't going to happen, in all probability), we don't have TWO guys. I don't mind starting Dozier at 2B, and Carroll at SS or utility, but the existence of both Escobar and Florimon is like admitting that we don't have a good-enough player, so we're going to rotate three backups.

 

1 more player. Plenty of money. No blocking of an almost-ready minor leaguer. Dumping whichever of Escobar or Florimon, and just having 1 of them as a second utility/back-up guy along with Carroll. It just makes too much sense. Now, is he (was he) out there? That I don't know....

[Highabove]

I think J.C. about nails it. It's also possible to walk and chew gum at the same time.

How does Saint Louis accomplish this along with Tampa and their abundance of Pitching (see KC trade.)

Even the Twins turned over their Team with out missing a beat. How many players were on the 2002 94 win team and also on the 94 win 2010 team?

Only once did the Team win less then 83 games during the period between those seasons.

Also, who is suppose to pay for these throwaway seasons? The Twins will still be charging premium prices for their product.

The above list contains to many average Players. We have seen this scenario before. (90's) No thank you.

[Mike Sixel]

No room for error. If you will not sign free agents, every one of these guys has to work out and stay healthy and be effective for 5 or so years. I hope it works, because many more 90+ loss seasons, and they have lost me.

[ND-Fan]

I agree that these players may well turn the corner and become solid major league players but i also would have liked the Twins sign couple more pichers to one year deals for the 2013 season because with all pitchers the twins signed there's bound to be some busts because where they are in careers and health. Even if all these pitchers did make team hold back couple of younger starting pitchers for part of 2013 it would give the twins excellent pitchers that could be traded for some young

prospects to help shore up some weakness in Twins farm system with middle infielders. Also signing of another middle infielder to help shore up the middle defense would have been prudent and if to minor league contract they could have stock piled him at triple AAA. The Twins could also be on track to be wild card tender if they get some pitching and play better defense up the middle because if M&M and Willingham have average to above average season the twins offense could be good enough to start winning few close games. The key is that pitching cann't be like last year where team is down 4 to 5 runs before the 3 inning. I look at Diamonds starts they were pretty much in those games because he held other team down and bull pen was good enough to hold and win the game. These young players if they all are up with Twins early it means twins have season 100 losses and is building for the 2015 season. I t will be good long term plan but pretty much writes of the season and comes down to just going to target field to watch baseball and dream of the future. It will also give the twins another good draft of player to stock there farm system. What happened 5 or 6 years ago when twins minor league drafts were such a bust.

[Top Gun]

The Twins would be talking world series today if they had made the trade the Jays made with the Marlins. 2SP & 2 MI was just what the Twins needed. Now you can just wish for another 5 years.

[TheLeviathan]

Most good teams don't worry about clearing a path. They let the best players play and give the top prospects a spot when they can. Given the "talent" in that list, there shouldn't be many there that we made an effort to keep a clear path for. Only Hicks was truly deserving of that notion.

 

You definitely don't worry about clearing a path one or two seasons before it's clear they are ready.

[cmathewson]

If a AA or AAA player wants a regular job on the Big League club, he should go out and prove he's a good bet to be better than anyone the team might be able to acquire via trade or free agency. If he can't do that, he shouldn't feel he "deserves" to have a path cleared for him on the Twins.

 

I agree with this, but I am at a loss to think of too many players who did not earn major league promotion, outside of last year's pitching staff, in which the whole starting staff went down to injury or utter ineffectiveness and needed emergency replacements. I guess they rushed Gomez and Casilla. More often than not, though, they have done the opposite. Thus, for example, Bartlett was held at AAA for two years in which he had OBPs over .400 each year, while the Twins wore out aged utility players every day. By the time he came up, he was 26 and already starting to wear down. That was the Twins way (Cuddyer, Kubel, etc.), unless the player was a rising star like Mauer.

 

The best examples of clearing the path were Pierzinski for Mauer and Mientkievicz for Morneau. This year, I see the center field situation in that light. Hicks showed he was ready by the end of last year and that made our two CFers expendable, where they could be used to acquire pitching. Soon we'll see something similar with Arcia coming in for Willingham. I suppose I could say not acquiring someone is like clearing a path for Dozier. Ditto for SS, where neither young candidate earned promotion, but there were no good (internal) alternatives.

 

As to the starting pitching, it wasn't as much clearing a path as scrapping what we had and starting over with whatever we could get our hands on. Gibson and Hendriks earned it, as did Diamond. But outside of Worely (my pick to stick), the others are retreads, who will take up temporary space until May and Myers are ready. Like 2012, Ryan will not be patient with the retreads (he canned Marquis after 6 starts and DFAed Blackburn despite a large contract obligation). When it comes to former college pitchers, the Twins have been aggressive with promotion. I see that repeating itself in 2013. Not signing a big free agent gives them the opportunity to be aggressive. I think that's Seth's point.

[70charger]

The Twins would be talking world series today if they had made the trade the Jays made with the Marlins. 2SP & 2 MI was just what the Twins needed. Now you can just wish for another 5 years.

 

You win the special Olympics! Yay!

[Cody Christie]

I enjoyed the picture featured in this article more than I should have

[clutterheart]

Nice Article but like others, I think it only pertains to the outfield.

There is no need to clear any paths for pitchers or infielders. The system is still weak in high level pitching and still very weak when it comes to infield guys. The MLB team's infield and pitching staff will be well below average and I think Rochester's will be as well.

Its a shame that Ryan hasn't brought in some more minor league free agents to give the AAA club a chance.

[FrodaddyG]

You win the special Olympics! Yay!

Hey, don't be a sore loser because he beat you. You still get your participation medal and a hug.

[Kwak]

"Clearing a path"? Mauer is the only player blocking a path for anybody. Theorectically all five starting pitching positions are open, with Worley and Diamond only promised long looks and patience as opposed to a guaranteed contract. I the bullpen, it appears that only three names are firm: Perkins, Burton and Duensing, (and I'm not certain about Duensing). Infield, Morneau is only guaranteed until July and then 1B is open. Plouffe has not been engraved at 3B, and the MI is clearly wide open as is CF.

It might seem like fun to watch a bunch of rookies (or near rookies) scrap to prove themselves as MLB players--but not at $70+ a ticket plus travel, concessions etc. for an entire season. Even the cheap seats range from about $15 to $25. Add other normal expenses per game. At the dome when he tactic of promoting the top prospects from the minors to the Twins, tickets cost a whole lot less. $6 for the OF, $12 upper deck behind the plate. At those prices it sort of worked (though attendance was lack lustre) but not today. It makes a lot of sense to sign some solid free agents to market contracts and add the top prospects around them as they climb through the system. This was part of the premise for the new stadium--the ability to attract and retain top talent and be competitive.

[Twinsfan2284]

I would agree overall with the article specifically related to this Twins team. Normally, I think I would agree that we need to be smart and sign good free agents and supplement those players with our good minor leaguers.

 

However, what people seem to forget is that we were not close to contending last year or the year before. Before the Span and Revere trades, we are coming into this season with questions marks at right field, 2b, SS, 3rd base, and at least 3 members of our rotation. This is not discounting the injury history at 1st base and catcher, or finalizing our bullpen.

 

In addition, there is at least 1 team in our own division (if not 2 or 3) that our much closer to competing for a title. And that is not even counting teams in the East and West divisions. So even if we were able to sign Sanchez or Jackson (80 mill and 50 mill contracts respectively) and maybe trade or sign a good middle infielder ($20-30 mill), where would that leave us? We would still have 5-6 legitimate holes to fill, a heavy reliance on young players, and several teams in the AL in a much better position to contend in the next couple of years. And who wants to give 5 or 6 years to Jackson or Sanchez, when they probably won't be key pieces of our team when we do actually have the ability to contend. They are good pitchers, but by no means elite. Even if we did the Blue Jays - Marlins trade as some suggested, we would be giving up a lot of young talent and be getting a couple of good pitchers, but still doesnt fix the massive amounts of holes that would be left.

 

While I cannot defend the Correia signing specifically, I am not sure why people are so upset with this off season. Even if we had the Yankees payroll, the Twins would have a hard time contending the next couple of years because so many teams are in a much better position. Why spend money on mediocre free agents that still will not help you contend now, when you have minor leaguers that regardless of whether they 'deserve it,' the Twins at least want to look at. And in a couple of years when we have 'filled' some of our holes (hopefully through our higher upside Minor Leaguers), we can sign a couple of bigger free agents to supplement what should already be a good team.

[Physics Guy]

I think clearing the path is the right decision. In the past I had a problem with the way Gardy managed prospects that should be playing (Cuddy and Kubel come to mind). I felt those guys should have been left alone and allowed to play. I guess when a team is in contention the situation can be different. That should not be the case this year. There are four players in that situation this year IMO: Plouffe,Dozier, Parmelee and Hendriks. Unless they fall completely flat on their face, all three hitters should get 500+ AB and Hendriks should get 30 starts. I argued earlier for signing a Cedeno type player as insurance and I would still support that since I don't put Florimon in that category. I would put Hicks in that category if he comes up, but I would put him on a shorter leash since he hasn't proven himself in the higher minors yet.