Baltimore Sun's Connelly Thinks Saunders Isn't Winding Up In Minnesota

[ThePuck]

You guys really need to read what I said.

 

We know that the Twins will be back to "managing" the budget. So while I think there is more money to be spend who knows what the front office thinks. I'm guessing they're not going be spending over $90M for a while which puts them in the middle of the league. If you have $20m coming off the books next year, $7-$8M is over 1/3 of that.

 

Mourneau will be a FA, you might want to keep him around if this season goes well. Maybe there are better options to be had in 2014-2015 than Suanders. If you keep Morneau because he had a big year, and have Saunders on $8M you pretty well have decided not to do much in FA signings because the Twins are not going to be going to $100M+ any time soon.

 

So you have to make these signings figuring that they'll looking for a payroll of $80-$90M the next year or two. So if we say they don't resign Morneau and drop Blackburn and Casilla they will have something like $21-$22M "off the books". Seems to me that counting on the Twins getting rid of Morneau isn't wise. The Twins seem fairly loyal to him and I think barring a total meltdown this year like he had the past two there's no way they don't resign him unless the salary he demands gets huge.

 

All I'm saying is that Saunders may not fit the longterm goals of the team and if you have to commit to him for 3+ years and $24M I'm not sure it's really that great of signing. He may help this year but personally I would rather see some younger pitchers see some MLB time so we can see what the Twins have for the future. We have Gibson and some other younger pitchers that we need to find out about so the Twins can move forward. They have a lot of arms showing up at ST this year and I can't see where Saunders will be a sure to be significantly better than some of the other options they have.

 

I read what you wrote...I just couldn't believe my eyes

[mcrow]

I read what you wrote...I just couldn't believe my eyes

 

OK. Whatever.

 

Obviously you're not allowed to post a dissenting opinion around here. lol.

[old nurse]

Yes, I did look at the future obligations. The $20M going off the books next year is Morneau and Blackburn, but are we so sure yet that we want to part ways with Morneau? If not we might need half of that to resign Morneau and then you have $7-$8M wrapped up in Saunders as well so now you're left with $2-$3M for FA signings otherwise and that's assuming the Twins plan to say at around $87M for payroll.

 

50% of revenue should be around a 110-120 million budget. Unless senility has caught up with me and I can no longer do math, there is only one miniscule possibilty that the Twins would ever have to worry about a second year to Saunders. The minuscule possibility is Ryan trading for 4 players before the start of the season who are eligible free agents at the end of the season. When the season ends, Ryan offers all of his free agents arbitrarion and they all accept.

[old nurse]

OK. Whatever.

 

Obviously you're not allowed to post a dissenting opinion around here. lol.

 

Don't be discouraged.

[Mike Sixel]

The Twins get 25 million in new revenue next year, right? I see no chance they are budget constrained in 2014 or 2015, unless the goal is to spend 30% of revenue on the roster.

[mcrow]

50% of revenue should be around a 110-120 million budget. Unless senility has caught up with me and I can no longer do math, there is only one miniscule possibilty that the Twins would ever have to worry about a second year to Saunders. The minuscule possibility is Ryan trading for 4 players before the start of the season who are eligible free agents at the end of the season. When the season ends, Ryan offers all of his free agents arbitrarion and they all accept.

 

Sure, assuming they stick to the 50% rule. However they are already below that for this season ($213m revenu in 2012) and we'll have to see what the revenue does in 2013 if they have another bad year when revenue stayed about the same last year as in 2011.

 

In theory they should be around $105M this year. So they'd have to increase payroll/spending by $30-$40M over this year to get to those numbers if my math is right.

[mcrow]

The Twins get 25 million in new revenue next year, right? I see no chance they are budget constrained in 2014 or 2015, unless the goal is to spend 30% of revenue on the roster.

 

Where does the extra $25M come from? Just asking because I must have missed that.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Where does the extra $25M come from? Just asking because I must have missed that.

 

New national television deal.

[nicksaviking]

Late last decade the Twins had Baker, Slowey, Perkins, Blackburn, Garza and Liriano as rotation options. For most of that time they neglected free agent starting pitching because the spots appeared all locked up. I'd hate for the team to have any excuse to ignore pitching upgrades simply because in 2014, Gibson, Hendricks and Diamond are locks along with Correia and Saunders simply because they are already under contract. Saunders signed for 2014 should not be a concern when considering free agent pitching, but we've seen this club overlook free agents in the past because all five spots were "locked."

[mcrow]

New national television deal.

Oh...yeah forgot all about that.

 

They better be increasing payroll then.

[edavis0308]

Oh...yeah forgot all about that.

 

They better be increasing payroll then.

 

Let's not forget, every team will be doing the same thing.

[mcrow]

Late last decade the Twins had Baker, Slowey, Perkins, Blackburn, Garza and Liriano as rotation options. For most of that time they neglected free agent starting pitching because the spots appeared all locked up. I'd hate for the team to have any excuse to ignore pitching upgrades simply because in 2014, Gibson, Hendricks and Diamond are locks along with Correia and Saunders simply because they are already under contract. Saunders signed for 2014 should not be a concern when considering free agent pitching, but we've seen this club overlook free agents in the past because all five spots were "locked."

 

Yes, I think the Twins more than anything, as far as pitching goes, need an ace and continuing to have "5 spots locked" just gives them cause not to splurg on a big time pitcher. Ideally some of the $25M from the TV deal would be used to try to snag a good SP but I'm not even sure who will be on the market at that point.

[mcrow]

Let's not forget, every team will be doing the same thing.

 

Yeah, which makes the extra money buy you less in the market than it would have this year.

[tmerrickkeller]

I agree that a contract of 2/15 or thereabouts given the $80M payroll and dollars coming off next offseason is not what makes this a questionable signing. I think they need to spend some of that money to give us some optimism and put people in the seats. I don't buy the argument that any dollars "unspent" this year necessarily become dollars to throw at someone in the 2014 offseason, or that they'll go over $100 million by the amount they are under $100 million this year. Because they won't.

 

My concern is with Joe Saunders. I think he's a valuable pitcher and can give you 185+ innings of middle-of-the-road stats on a different team. I think guys like Saunders do well on a pitching staff with a lot of hard throwers when his offspeed stuff is a variation from everyone else. I don't think he's so valuable in a rotation with Diamond, Pelfrey and Correia who all throw a little softer and nibble the edges, just like Saunders does. My way of thinking, he's just a little too much like those other guys, even if marginally/statistically better. Now, should we have signed Saunders at 2/$16 over Correia at 2/$10? But we've beaten that horse....

[johnnydakota]

Sorry, I thought saying "future Hall-of-Famers" would make clear my actual view. The Twins seem to be in a funny position with their 40-man, full of players much much much too valuable to expose to a waiver claim, yet not valuable enough to flip for a decent A-ball prospect of some kind if you wanted to make room for a free agent signing.

 

Me bad, i saw only 40 man roster =)

[Mike Sixel]

Right, contracts for free agents will be way up next year....making this the year to sign guys. Imagine what a good pitcher will cost next year, when every team has way more revenue. Imagine how cheap even 10 million per year will look.....

[johnnydakota]

My issue with signing Saunders to multiple years mostly has to do with the fact that the front office could use it as an excuse to neglect the free agent pitching markent next off season. Though the 2014 pitching crop doesn't look strong at the moment, things could change. If there is a decent chance that the Twins will point to Saunders' salary and roster spot and say they can't afford the space or the money when there is a legit better option on the market who the Twins had a shot at snagging, I don't want Saunders.

 

I realize that neather salary or roster spots should be a concern, but I don't want the front office to have any excuses for neglecting the rotation next year either. Additionally, I'd hate for the Twins to sign Saunders and have the front office crow about how well they did with free agency this off season. Signing another back-of-the rotation starter is not impressive and I'd hate for the front office to pat themselves on the back about doing so. They need to clean house and in my opinion, their inactivity is the best shot at getting that accomplished. I'd hate for them to point to Saunders and say "We tried!" when in fact they clearly didn't.

 

There were legitimate and better pitchers avalibe this year, but i understand your thinking....

[Kwak]

Here we go again! Back to the "why should the Twins spend more money when they aren't going to win anyway?" This subject has been covered over and over. Extend your logic of spending/not-spending and the end result is a minor league team of "hoped-for future stars" at minimum salary most of the time or a collection of veterans at the peak of their career earnings who are expected to "win-it-all", maybe once every 15 years.

[mcrow]

Right, contracts for free agents will be way up next year....making this the year to sign guys. Imagine what a good pitcher will cost next year, when every team has way more revenue. Imagine how cheap even 10 million per year will look.....

 

Well, I guess we'll see if the Twins really will be sticking to the 50% of revenue or not next year because if they're looking at having ~$240m in revenue next year with the new TV Deal then they sure as hell better be over $100M in payroll. I have my doubts on that point.

[ThePuck]

I read what you wrote...I just couldn't believe my eyes

 

Nothing wrong with dissenting opinions...but you seemed to think that your post wasn't understood. Saying people need to read what you said and asking another if he could read. We read it, we didn't agree with your position. Even if we kept Morny, it still wouldn't hamstring us in any way.

[IdahoPilgrim]

Sorry, I thought saying "future Hall-of-Famers" would make clear my actual view.

 

Actually, the way things are going, Butera has a legitimate shot to be chosen for the Twins Hall of Fame.

[mcrow]

Nothing wrong with dissenting opinions...but you seemed to think that your post wasn't understood. Saying people need to read what you said and asking another if he could read. We read it, we didn't agree with your position. Even if we kept Morny, it still wouldn't hamstring us in any way.

 

I would say you are correct if we assume that the Twins will increase spending with the increased revenue. If they really intend to be in the $100M+ in the next couple seasons then maybe it makes sense. Budget or not I don't like Saunders for more than 2/$14 or so.

[Brandon]

Lets see here a Saunders signing leaves the potential rotation at:

 

Diamond

Worely

Pelfry

Saunders

Corriea

 

Hendricks

Gibson

Dedunno

DeVries

and Harden (who will likely be in the pen)

 

No one said Corriea has to be in the starting rotation all year. Also he could be traded in July. Injuries occur and you can never have too much pitching. I say sign him for a 1 or 2 year deal. I don't think the 3rd year is prudent. I also think Saunders will have trade value with the extra year come next offseason.

[ThePuck]

I would say you are correct if we assume that the Twins will increase spending with the increased revenue. If they really intend to be in the $100M+ in the next couple seasons then maybe it makes sense. Budget or not I don't like Saunders for more than 2/$14 or so.

 

If they chose to stay at 80M in the future, that will be a self-imposed hamstringing of payroll...and likely wouldn't be in keeping with their supposed 50-52% rule they've told us for so long, which wouldn't be keeping their word when they talked about why the stadium was needed in the first place.

[mcrow]

If they chose to stay at 80M in the future, that will be a self-imposed hamstringing of payroll...and likely wouldn't be in keeping with their supposed 50-52% rule they've told us for so long, which wouldn't be keeping their word when they talked about why the stadium was needed in the first place.

 

True, but if I do the math right they are well below the $106M they for this year that would make the 50% mark of revenue. So, we really don't know if or when they'll really stick to that number.

[old nurse]

Sure, assuming they stick to the 50% rule. However they are already below that for this season ($213m revenu in 2012) and we'll have to see what the revenue does in 2013 if they have another bad year when revenue stayed about the same last year as in 2011.

 

In theory they should be around $105M this year. So they'd have to increase payroll/spending by $30-$40M over this year to get to those numbers if my math is right.

 

Yes they are below that. That has been through several threads. About all I can say is I hope Morneau has a great year, Pelfrey and Harden come back strong and Ryan makes a trade for a middle infielder that works out like Shannon Stewart trade did.

[old nurse]

I would say you are correct if we assume that the Twins will increase spending with the increased revenue. If they really intend to be in the $100M+ in the next couple seasons then maybe it makes sense. Budget or not I don't like Saunders for more than 2/$14 or so.

2/14 too rich for you? That kind of thinking is why there were only the signings there were this past off season.

[mcrow]

Yes they are below that. That has been through several threads. About all I can say is I hope Morneau has a great year, Pelfrey and Harden come back strong and Ryan makes a trade for a middle infielder that works out like Shannon Stewart trade did.

Sorry, new to the forums and I didn't know there's been a ton of talk about that already. I just point it out because people seem to assume that the payroll will go up be we have little evidence of that being a sure thing.

[johnnydakota]

Let's not forget, every team will be doing the same thing.

 

Which is why this was the off season to over spend....

[mcrow]

2/14 too rich for you? That kind of thinking is why there were only the signings there were this past off season.

 

2/14 isn't too rich but 3/24 is too rich, IMO. I don't think a guy like Saunders is worth three years unless it's a very good price, though in 3 years $8m might be a steal for any warm body that can toss a ball.