Article: Terry Ryan Thinks Brian Dozier Was Rushed In '12

[Cody Christie]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1338-Ryan-thinks-Dozier-was-rushed-in-12

[lee_the_twins_fan]

I briefly met Dozier at Twins Fest. I think he'll do fine at 2B

[Doc Freiermuth]

Hmmm...if you substitute the name Aaron Hicks for Brian Dozier it almost sounds like the same story. Hope Terry doesn't ruin Hicks the same way and for the same desperate reasons he ruined Dozier.

[Alex]

Hmmm...if you substitute the name Aaron Hicks for Brian Dozier it almost sounds like the same story. Hope Terry doesn't ruin Hicks the same way and for the same desperate reasons he ruined Dozier.

 

I agree. The difference is Hick's age, of course. Dozier has always played well when he was a the top end of the age spectrum in the minor leagues, which is why a lot of us predicted his numbers wouldn't hold. I do have the same fear of Hicks, though, but I think he's got more chance to succeed and at least his defense is top notch.

[glunn]

I hope that Dozier proves Ryan correct. The Twins could really benefit from more offensive production at 2B.

[mlhouse]

Again, I am going to bring up my central thesis: WHO CARES IF HE STRUGGLED. We were a 95 loss team without any other real alternatives. Let a guy like Dozier struggle at the major league level. Let him work out his problems and errors. Use a coaching staff and manager that will work with him to improve. To quote Hilary Clinton, what difference does it make.

 

Sure, he was not "ready". Very few major league players are in their first year of exposure to that level. But, then, the guy is 26 years old. What is the Twins real plan with him? Bring him up when he is 30?

 

Rebuilding takes patience. It takes dealing with losses. I question if the current Twins leadership really knows what htey are doing at times because they cannot seem to understand where this team stands.

[Alex]

Again, I am going to bring up my central thesis: WHO CARES IF HE STRUGGLED. We were a 95 loss team without any other real alternatives. Let a guy like Dozier struggle at the major league level. Let him work out his problems and errors. Use a coaching staff and manager that will work with him to improve. To quote Hilary Clinton, what difference does it make.

 

Sure, he was not "ready". Very few major league players are in their first year of exposure to that level. But, then, the guy is 26 years old. What is the Twins real plan with him? Bring him up when he is 30?

 

 

Dozier's experience shows the danger of bringing up some players before they are ready. He got worse once he reached the majors as the season went on, and the organization ironically lost faith in him after putting him in a position where he couldn't succeed.

[Kwak]

So much baloney about "rushed"/ "brought up too soon". Most players struggle at the MLB level early on, only to improve. The rest never succeed. It happens. This is just another part of "The Twins Way"--endless years in the minors. Read the artcles on top prospects by position and find out that most of these guys skipped levels along the way--and somehow succeed! Other teams routinely have MLers that were called up by age 22.

[notoriousgod71]

How can you rush a 25 year old?

[ericchri]

Maybe the biggest "What If" player (along with Parmelee and Hicks/Benson) going into the season. He's definitely one of the guys who could put up a surprisingly good year if things go well.

 

Defensively at SS, the team always said he was playing too deep. I doubt that will be much of an issue if he's at 2B, that position seems to lend itself to playing fairly deep naturally. I also recall a lot of his errors being throws sailing high and off-target. Again, if he's at 2B that hopefully becomes less of an issue because of the shorter throws. So if he's at 2B, I could see him actually being good defensively, at least adequate. And if he's good defensively, maybe he's not so panicked at the plate trying to save his job.

 

He's got some pop, if he plays regularly I expect him to get double-digits in homeruns and actually get a tolerable amount of walks. His numbers could go up drastically. Or he could flail away at pitches he can't hit again and play terrible defense. I don't have a crystal ball, so far now I'll choose to be hopeful he's gonna be our 2B for the next few years and be decent or better at it.

[twinsnorth49]

So they rushed him last year and he flopped, didn't bother to call him up in September and now they seem prepared to just hand him the 2nd base gig, based pretty much on the fact that the only other alternatives are Escobar and a 39 year old utility player. Why am I not all that confident?

[Shane Wahl]

So they rushed him last year and he flopped, didn't bother to call him up in September and now they seem prepared to just hand him the 2nd base gig, based pretty much on the fact that the only other alternatives are Escobar and a 39 year old utility player. Why am I not all that confident?

 

Haha, exactly. Everything they did with Dozier last year was wrong. And it was *obviously* wrong, which is terrifying.

[Seth Stohs]

How can you rush a 25 year old?

 

Too many people say this... but in reality, I think he was rushed in two ways. 1.) he debuted in the big leagues less than two years after he was drafted. That is very fast. 2.) When he was promoted from Rochester, he wasn't playing well.

 

I get that he's not a 22 year old. However, he was a four-year college guy, so he didn't even sign until he was 22. He debuted as a 24 year old. That's fast. No one expects him to be a Hall of Famer, just a solid regular. So, debuting at 24 is not old. Neither is 25.

[PopRiveter]

" To quote Hilary Clinton, what difference does it make."

I think it was Morrissey who sang that, not Hilary Clinton.

[Oldgoat_MN]

What Doc said. This is exactly my fear with Hicks, too. A little time in AAA just to make sure he is adjusting well there.

It is a rare player who goes from AA to MLB without some genuine struggles. Please try to remember how rare a Mauer type of player is.

The guy I think most likely to handle the jump is Arcia, but he doesn't play CF.

[ThePuck]

What Doc said. This is exactly my fear with Hicks, too. A little time in AAA just to make sure he is adjusting well there.

It is a rare player who goes from AA to MLB without some genuine struggles. Please try to remember how rare a Mauer type of player is.

The guy I think most likely to handle the jump is Arcia, but he doesn't play CF.

 

It's rare a player hits the majors without geniune struggles, period.

[Mike Sixel]

Those people that say it never hurts to keep a player longer in AA, because you can promote from there.....this thread reminds us why it does matter that players are promoted slowly and not given a September callup.....

[Shane Wahl]

Those people that say it never hurts to keep a player longer in AA, because you can promote from there.....this thread reminds us why it does matter that players are promoted slowly and not given a September callup.....

 

Speaking of a September callup, I think that should have been Dozier's only time with the Twins last year unless he started to really heat up in AAA earlier than that.

 

Of course you can rush a 25-year-old if they haven't been past AA by that time!!!! Dozier had things to learn and AAA would have been good for that. And even after the demotion how he wasn't a second baseman the rest of the year is completely beyond my comprehension.

[Alex]

It's rare a player hits the majors without geniune struggles, period.

 

There are "struggles" and then there is just being overmatched.

 

I'd argue that Ben Revere "struggled" in his first nearly full season in 2011. His play was a mixture of darn right terrible to solid starter type numbers. He had a rough May (34 AB), an excellent June (.294 AVG/.333 OBP), an awful July (.218/.280), an improved August (.255/.300), and a excellent Sept. (.311/.342). This, after a short stint in AAA that proved he was ready for the majors.

 

Dozier, by contrast, didn't really have those ups and downs and didn't put together more than a couple of consecutive games of what looked like major league talent . His numbers did get slightly better, but his best full month was an OPS of .611 and he never cracked a .300 OBP. His last month started out better in terms of SLG % because of a couple of HR, but AVG and OBP were both down again. (I'll add that even though I didn't think the Twins should have called him up when they did, I don't think there was a reason to send him down at that point either and would have liked to see him finish the season).

[jimbo92107]

I agree. The difference is Hick's age, of course. Dozier has always played well when he was a the top end of the age spectrum in the minor leagues, which is why a lot of us predicted his numbers wouldn't hold. I do have the same fear of Hicks, though, but I think he's got more chance to succeed and at least his defense is top notch.

 

Aaron Hicks's age is one difference, but another huge difference is that the Twins have several options in the outfield this year. They already know that Darrin Mastroianni can handle CF duties if Hicks has trouble out there. Masto isn't a great hitter, but he brings a fair amount of skill as a lead-off man and base runner. If Hicks has trouble handling major league pitching, they can bring up Joe Benson, especially if Benson looks good this spring. That's probably plan A or A1 anyway. They could even bring up Oswaldo Arcia in a pinch. The Benson/Hicks competition should make an exciting storyline this spring. Whoever hits better may well start in CF for the Twins, and the runner up will play CF for Rochester.

 

Contrast that with the situation in the middle infield last year. After Nishioka flopped, they brought up Brian Dozier, even though he wasn't hitting very well in Rochester. Problem was, neither was anybody else. They probably figured that Dozier at least would bring some defensive stability at SS or 2B, but then Dozier let his hitting woes affect his fielding, and then his whole rookie season started looking bad. A rookie's confidence can be ruined by early failure. The numbers say they're not making it, and the fans booing tells them they're not making it. Sending Dozier down may have rescued his career.

 

What Terry Ryan said does sound plausible, and I hope it's true. Brian Dozier seems like the kind of scrappy, max effort player that every team needs. I'm hoping he develops into another Nick Punto, but with more pop in the bat. This 2013 season will definitely reveal what kind of player Dozier is.

[mlhouse]

There are "struggles" and then there is just being overmatched.

 

I'd argue that Ben Revere "struggled" in his first nearly full season in 2011. His play was a mixture of darn right terrible to solid starter type numbers. He had a rough May (34 AB), an excellent June (.294 AVG/.333 OBP), an awful July (.218/.280), an improved August (.255/.300), and a excellent Sept. (.311/.342). This, after a short stint in AAA that proved he was ready for the majors.

 

Dozier, by contrast, didn't really have those ups and downs and didn't put together more than a couple of consecutive games of what looked like major league talent . His numbers did get slightly better, but his best full month was an OPS of .611 and he never cracked a .300 OBP. His last month started out better in terms of SLG % because of a couple of HR, but AVG and OBP were both down again. (I'll add that even though I didn't think the Twins should have called him up when they did, I don't think there was a reason to send him down at that point either and would have liked to see him finish the season).

 

And, if they are overmatched, they are overmatched. Again, look back to a historical precedent and the 1982 Twins. When they broke camp that year, they inserted Lenny Faedo as their starting shortstop. He was a former first round draft pick and was just 22 years old. Guess what? He wasn't good enough so during the rebuilding process they had to find someone else that was, And, that meant that in 1983 they brought up a 21 year old Greg Gagne and installed him as their starter in 1985.

 

True evaluation is critical in the rebuild process. Is it a case of being overmatched? Is it a case of further development? We are not committed to Brian Dozier at all, but by bringing him up NOW we can make some true observations, rather than waiting another year or more into the future.

 

And, I will reiterate. This team needs to commit to the concept of developing players at the major league level. We already have had two consecutive 95+ loss season, and if we continue on the one step at a time minor league development process we are going to have several more. It worked in 1982, as the young players they essentially plugged into that lineup became the nucleaus of two World Series teams. Some of the players worked, some of them did not. But, again, THE CRITICAL FACTOR WAS that by the time these players all hit their peak performance we had dumped all of the failures and had an opportunity to find replacements, such as the aforementioned Gagne, and Kirby Puckett who replaced Jimmy Eisenreich when he could not handle the majors.

 

Lenny Faedo could not hit, and after 1984 he never had another major league at bat. Brian Dozier may be following hte same path, but we NEED TO FIND OUT, just as we found out about Faedo.

[Badsmerf]

You can always point out players that skipped a level and didn't miss a beat. The list of guys who's careers were hurt by this is much longer. That is what player development is, being able to judge when they are ready to move up and when they aren't. Plouffe was pushed through the system despite his numbers and it is starting to look like the Twins took a good approach with him. Hicks was held a year and it looks like it helped. I was fine with them bringing Dozier up when they did, the problem was they kept him there despite him struggling helplessly. It got pretty bad for Dozier. It was obvious he wasn't making adjustments and they left him out to dry. A big part of that is a terrible job by management to provide insurance to that position.

[Rosterman]

Dozier was the guy that got to take the lumps. Combine his call-up with the inconsistent play of Luis Rivas...eh, Alex Casilla. The non-play of Danny Valencia. You had Jimmy Carroll playing super sub somewhere. You come to the majors and take some lumps.Soon the film catches up to you, or the line-up is such that pitchers don't have to pitch to you, or so they learn. Plus the everyday grind. Even the worst players on a 25-man roster are better than the majority of players in AAA ball. Is Mastro better than Hicks? Well, he can hold a spot for a season or two in the majors, which is more than you can saw for a Carson, Wilkin or Dinkelman, who can barely scratch their way to 25th-man roster spots.

[Alex]

And, if they are overmatched, they are overmatched. Again, look back to a historical precedent and the 1982 Twins. When they broke camp that year, they inserted Lenny Faedo as their starting shortstop. He was a former first round draft pick and was just 22 years old. Guess what? He wasn't good enough so during the rebuilding process they had to find someone else that was, And, that meant that in 1983 they brought up a 21 year old Greg Gagne and installed him as their starter in 1985.

 

True evaluation is critical in the rebuild process. Is it a case of being overmatched? Is it a case of further development? We are not committed to Brian Dozier at all, but by bringing him up NOW we can make some true observations, rather than waiting another year or more into the future.

 

And, I will reiterate. This team needs to commit to the concept of developing players at the major league level. We already have had two consecutive 95+ loss season, and if we continue on the one step at a time minor league development process we are going to have several more. It worked in 1982, as the young players they essentially plugged into that lineup became the nucleaus of two World Series teams. Some of the players worked, some of them did not. But, again, THE CRITICAL FACTOR WAS that by the time these players all hit their peak performance we had dumped all of the failures and had an opportunity to find replacements, such as the aforementioned Gagne, and Kirby Puckett who replaced Jimmy Eisenreich when he could not handle the majors.

 

Lenny Faedo could not hit, and after 1984 he never had another major league at bat. Brian Dozier may be following hte same path, but we NEED TO FIND OUT, just as we found out about Faedo.

 

To be clear, I wasn't referring to this year but last year, clearly a wasted year of both development and evaluation for Dozier because he was way above his skill level for developmental purpose. In fact, you could see by the end of the season it had clearly messed with his confidence and he mentioned recently it also hurt his mechanics. So, just brining someone up doesn't tell you what kind of player he is going to be or could, especially if the timing is wrong.

 

I'd agree, though, that he probably needs to be back in the majors this year, but I think it's too late. Had he played in the minors last year, I think you'd see a better Dozier this spring.