Twins relying on Willingham's production

 

I'm sure this is just supporting his guy, but I found this quote interesting....

 

"I don't see any reason why he can't come close to duplicating, now that he's familiar with the environment up here and certainly the staff and the ballpark and everything that involves a major move coming form Oakland," said Twins general manager Terry Ryan. "He's a solid guy. I don't think you're going to see much waver out of his performance."

 

He'll be 34 when the season starts coming off by far his best year. Chances are he won't come close to last year but lets hope he isn't far off.

He'll be 34 when the season starts coming off by far his best year. Chances are he won't come close to last year but lets hope he isn't far off.

 

Exactly. I think it's safe to say that last year might have been the peak in his production, but like you said anything close would be great.

I dont look for a significant drop off , there could be an improvement in fact, depending on how he is protected in the lineup and if he stays healthy

34 is prime time!

Twinsfest, and I'm sure it's like this all over the league, always gives great opportunities for writers to bust out their worst, most obvious headlines. Next up:

 

"Twins expect hitters to get hits" and "Pitchers expected to utilize arms on regular basis"

Willingham is probably going to be somwhere around the same numbers this year, perhaps slightly less overall production but still a good hitter to have in the lineup. 34 in MLB doesn't always mean you have peaked, but I think it's reasonable to expect similar production though I would be surprised if he improved his numbers.

Do they ever project that a guy will regress?

"Twins expect hitters to get hits" and "Pitchers expected to utilize arms on regular basis"

I can't wait for the mid-season headlines like "Will Correia's four straight <4 IP starts leave gas in his tank for the end of the year?"

34 is prime time!

 

Actually, it's 5 years past the age where hitters typically begin a modest decline, and a year past the age where most players begin to decline at a sharper rate.

 

On the other hand, some players do age very well, and a few even become better players in their 30's than they were in their 20's. When he came to the Twins in 1991, Chili Davis was a poor defensive outfielder who didn't hit for a high average, but he could draw walks and hit for power. At age 30, after 9 season, Chili had managed an OPS+ season over 140 just once, and none in the 6 years prior to coming here.

 

Yet starting at age 31, Davis would post OPS+'s over 140 three times, and two more seasons of at least 130 before retiring at age 39. Even his final season's OPS of 108 was in line with the production he had managed in his late 20's.

 

Chili isn't a great comp for Willi, but he's not bad one, either. If JW ages well and posts a pair of OPS+'s in the 120's to go with the 140 he put up in 2012 and play tolerable defense in a corner OF spot, the Twins will have gotten a bargain. And that should be true whether they keep him or move him for the worthwhile sort of prospect that kind of bargain player should bring in trade.