AL Central Rundown: Catchers

[David Youngs]

Baseball is on the horizon and depth charts in the AL Central are nearly set. Let’s take a look at how each team stacks up in the catching department.The Rundown

While most teams in the AL Central saw significant chances at a variety of positions in the 2020-21 offseason, catcher has not been one of them. Nine of the ten catchers that made up the 2020 AL Central catching depth chart (starters and backups) will return to their respective teams in 2021.

 

The only major switcheroo took place when the Detroit Tigers perhaps made their biggest move of the offseason by signing veteran Wilson Ramos.

 

How will Ramos influence a young Tiger staff? Will Salvador Perez be able to stay healthy? How do the Twins balance the potential two-headed monster of Garver and Jeffers?

 

Here’s how each team stacks up.

 

Detroit Tigers

Despite a lackluster 2020 season, eyes in the Motor City opened wide when the Tigers signed Silver Slugger and three-time all-star Wilson Ramos to fulfill the catching duties in Detroit.

 

Once a .300 hitter, the 32-year old isn’t the electric player that he used to be with the Nationals. Ramos posted a rocky 0.3 WAR and meager .239 batting average in 2020 with the Mets.

 

Yet just one year earlier Ramos posted a 2.2 WAR and .288 AVG in the Big Apple.

 

Not bad.

 

Perhaps the biggest test for Ramos will be the pitching staff that he inherits. Previously working with names like Scherzer, Strasburg, and deGrom, Ramos will now be mentoring a young Detroit staff of Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, and Matthew Boyd.

 

2021 could potentially be that year the Tigers’ backup Grayson Greiner gets more playing time given the age of Ramos. Greiner hasn’t been particularly effective for Detroit, posting a .194 AVG and -0.9 WAR in his three years with the Tigers.

 

At the same time, the 27-year old hasn’t had much of a chance. He played a career-high 58 games in 2018, slashing .202/.251./308. With Ramos’ career waning, there’s a good chance that Greiner will get a similar amount of opportunities behind the dish in 2021 as he did in 2019.

 

Cleveland Indians

Cleveland starter Roberto Perez may be the worst offensive catcher in the AL Central, yet the strongest defensive force in the division. Perez nabbed the AL Gold Glove for catchers in both 2019 and 2020, posting the highest percentage of runners gunned down both years (40.8% in 2019, 71.4% in 2020). Perez also boasted a 2.7 Defensive WAR in 2019, only second to Matt Chapman’s 3.9.

 

Similar to Perez, backup Austin Hedges has seen solid success on defense in his career. Before he was dealt to Cleveland in the Mike Clevinger trade, Hedges tossed out 46% of runners in 28 games for the 2020 Padres.

 

Even though excellent defense is critical behind the dish, there is a need for at least average offensive production from the position, especially when on a team that has ranked near the bottom of the MLB in the offense the past two years.

 

This situation couldn’t be more true for Cleveland. Perez barely surpassed the Mendoza Line in his first two years as Cleveland’s starting catcher (.204 AVG). The same can be said for Hedges, a career .198 hitter.

 

Cleveland’s catching department can defend with the best of them, but Hedges and Perez might want to invest in a Mauer Quick Swing Machine if the team wants to compete for the division.

 

Chicago White Sox

Like other members of the White Sox, starting catcher Yasmani Grandal has proven to be a sparkplug on offense throughout his career. The two-time all-star slapped a career-best 28 HR in 2019 with Milwaukee, garnering him 15th place in the NL MVP race.

 

Yes, Grandal is strikeout prone and not a high percentage hitter. However, there are a wealth of more consistent hitters on the White Sox roster that can complement Grandal’s high HR/high strikeout approach.

 

Grandal has also proven to be effective behind the plate, tossing out 46% of runners in 2020. He doesn’t have the defensive numbers of Roberto Perez, yet his offense makes up for it.

 

25-year old Zack Collins will enter his third year as a backup catcher for the SouthSiders. Collins has only played in 36 MLB games with 120 plate appearances. His numbers aren’t pretty, with a career slash line of .167/.286/.314.

 

Yet it is tough to judge Collins as a player when he’s backed up Grandal and James McCann his whole career. Baseball Reference projects Collins to get more of an opportunity in 2021 given the departure of McCann. If true, this could be a year of opportunity for the young buck.

 

Kansas City Royals

Following the position change and eventual retirement of Joe Mauer, Salvador Perez became The Catcher of the AL Central.

 

Five Gold Gloves, six all-star appearances, and three Silver Sluggers, all under one organization. Sounds eerily similar to the status of a former AL Central catcher.

 

Perez has dealt with injuries over the years, most prominently Tommy John surgery in 2019. Yet the 30-year old came back fighting in 2020, slashing .333/.353/.653 and winning the American League Comeback Player of the Year award.

 

In addition to his presence at the plate, Perez has been rock solid on defense. Perez hasn’t committed an error since 2017 and has thrown out 36% of baserunners in his nine-year career.

 

When Salvy needs a day off, 27-year old Cam Gallagher will fulfill catching duties for the Royals. A member of the organization since his MLB debut in 2017, Gallagher has put up stronger numbers at the plate than the backup catchers previously mentioned. A career .251 hitter, Gallagher batted .283 in 25 appearances during the 2020 season.

 

Barring another injury from Perez, it’s unlikely that we’ll see much of Gallagher in 2021. Still, he’s put up better numbers than every backup catcher in the AL Central throughout his career. Not a bad option.

 

Minnesota Twins

Ryan Jeffers had a stellar rookie year for the Twins. On the other hand, Mitch Garver plummeted in 2020 from two great seasons in 2018 and 2019. Garver faced minor injuries during the season but there’s no doubt that 2020 was an underperformance for the slugger.

 

Garver hit .270 between 2018 and 2019, including a Silver Slugger Award in 2019. And while he isn’t the greatest defensive catcher in the world, Garver isn’t at the level of Gary Sanchez where his defense makes him a liability.

 

On the other hand, Ryan Jeffers was absolutely outstanding during his rookie campaign in 2020. The UNC-Wilmington alum slashed .273/.355/.436 in 26 games throughout his rookie season. Similar to Garver, Jeffers isn’t a Gold Glove winner (for now). Yet the young slugger put in a case last year to rival Mitch Garver for the starting catcher role.

 

Of all the teams in the Central, the Twins have the smallest gap in talent between their top two catchers. Mitch Garver has proven that he can shine as one of the best offensive catchers in the league. Jeffers touted the strongest season a Twins rookie catcher has seen since the debut of Joe Mauer.

 

The fine line between Jeffers and Garver isn’t a bad thing; it’s actually very good. Both players have the ability to be a game-changer yet neither is going to be the weakest player in the lineup when the other isn’t playing.

 

Grade ‘Em

 

Detroit Tigers: C+

The addition of Wilson Ramos is a potential improvement from Austin Romaine, but not by much. Ramos is unlikely to be a strong offensive asset for Detroit and Grayson Greiner doesn’t have the experience or talent to become an impact player.

 

Cleveland Indians: B

Roberto Perez is perhaps the finest defensive catcher in the American League and Austin Hedges is no slouch behind the plate. Yet the lack of offense from these two is tough to ignore and will contribute to Cleveland’s diminishing performance at the pate.

 

Minnesota Twins: B+

Mitch Garver and Ryan Jeffers have both proven that they can be a threat at the plate. Yet neither player has demonstrated the consistency needed to call this an elite catching staff thanks to Garver’s lackluster 2020 season and Jeffers' status as a rookie last year. Th potential is there, but we need to see it.

 

Chicago White Sox: A-

Yosmani Grandal may be one of the most influential catchers in Major League Baseball. Similar to a first basement or center fielder, Grandal has the power to change a game with one swing. Add that to a lineup filled with strong hitters and a solid rotation and the White Sox will be giving the Twins a run for their money.

 

Kansas City Royals: A

As mentioned earlier, Salvador Perez is one of the great catchers of the modern era. The man holds his own on defense and is a monster at the plate. There’s no doubt that Salvy will post above-average numbers at the plate in 2021. Yet what puts the Royals atop this list is the depth between Perez and backup Cam Gallagher. Gallagher has proven to be one of the stronger backups in the league and it’s likely that he will prove to be an important accomplice to Perez in 2021.

 

The Voice of the People

 

A population of (unbiased) fans voted on who they think the best catching squad in the AL Central is. Do you agree?

 

Click here to view the article

[dbminn]

Nice writeup. The AL Central is strong at catcher. My order is definitely different:

 

Sox (A) - Grandal is the best AL catcher and he's resilient. 

Twins (A-) - Best combo in the AL when considering their success as starters. Gallagher and Collins might have promise but they're not proven.  

Royals (A-) - Perez is coming off a career year with the bat. I put the Royals combo a fraction behind the Twins. I wouldn't trade Garver and Jeffers for the Royals pair.

Cleveland (B+) - Solid defense for a team that relies on pitching. 

Tigers © - Ok. Ramos was a good veteran acquisition. 

 

 

[DocBauer]

There is some good catching in the Central, no doubt! Based on what we've seen of Jeffers thus far, and what we've seen from Garver previously, the only thing keeping the Twins from being an A, in my opinion, is Jeffers continuing his early results and Garver just being himself, though I don't expect a repeat of 2019 and never have.

[Jamie Cameron]

Great writeup! LOL to the poll. Grandal is the best by a mile, but the Twins depth is enviable.

[mikelink45]

I cannot judge the Twins yet.  I was really impressed by Jeffers, but I need to see which Garver is the real one - 2019 or 2020.  

 

I really liked the summary. You made me curious about the pipeline - if they go down what prospects are ready to step in?  Notes from Prospects1500.com and the number is their rank among prospects in their system. 

 

19. C Sebastian Rivero*  KC

 

Age: 22

Highest Level:  Triple-A (PCL)

A 2015 J2 signing out of Venezuela, Rivero has quickly, especially for a catcher, ascended onto the 40-man roster.  6’1″ 195, Rivero is a very advanced backstop for his age.  All the defensive tools are there and reports are his game-calling has made huge strides, but don’t dismiss his offensive potential either.

The offense is and will probably always be behind the defense, but Rivera has had success against older competition.  As a 19-year-old in Low-A, he hit .258/.301/.391 59/17 K/BB with 7 HR.  He is quick to the ball and has advanced pitch selection and recognition for his age.  Catcher investments are questionable in dynasty, but Rivero is young, close, and not lacking attractive fantasy skills at a position with a low bar.

 

7. Dillon Dingler, C (2020 Rank: Unranked)  Detroit
Age: 22
Highest Level: College

Looking past Dingler’s poor choice of colleges (ohio), his glove, position flexibility, and leadership qualities give Dingler an above average projection right out of the 2020 Draft. His ability to call a MLB game and handle a young rotation will be benefited by having manger AJ Hinch in the dugout. If the Tigers can add another veteran catcher to the organization (hearing Yadier Molina in multiple channels), Dingler could develop even faster. Dingler could be an All-Star during his prime years if the contact hitting develops versus a power-or-nothing approach.

 

19. Seby Zavala, C White Sox
Age: 27
Highest level: MLB

Zavala is the kind of gritty hard working catcher that coaches love. He is a gifted defender with an athletic build and he earns praise from his pitchers as a quality game caller. With the bat he exhibits plus power but his aggressive approach has generated low walk and high strikeout totals. I remain convinced he will be a solid backup catcher in the big leagues.

 

8. Bo Naylor, C  Cleveland Indians
Age: 20
Highest Level: A

Another alternate site invitee, Naylor continues to be the apparent Indians catcher of the future. Naylor is an exceptional defender, but he still has some work to do at the plate. If Naylor can improve his on base numbers, he’ll rise quickly, as there aren’t any catchers blocking him. Timing works in Naylor’s favor, as well: Roberto Perez is under contract through 2022. If the team continues to cut payroll and Naylor has a strong season, Perez could be on the move before the 2022 season. Keep a close eye on Naylor’s development for a potential near future catching option.

 

I skipped Ryan Jeffers who is number 8 on this sites listing, because he is already here.  - Next:

 

36. Ben Rortvedt, C Twins 
Age: 23
Highest Level: AA
The Twins curiously protected him before the Rule 5 Draft, thus adding him to the 40-man roster. His bat has never been his strength, since his framing and arm strength have always anchored him to whatever success he’s had. If he can somehow figure out how to improve his bat, he’ll be a Twin, possibly alongside Jeffers down the line.

[Dodecahedron]

I'm not convinced that offensive stats are what make a good catcher, though it's certainly a "nice to have."

 

I'm also not convinced Garver still has to prove himself offensively. He performed well through the minors, last year was goofball, and it's unlikely he will suddenly forget how to hit for the rest of his career. 

 

Was Garver fighting a nagging injury last year?

[bobs]

  As a pair, Garver/Jeffers put the Twins at the top in the division.  But certainly can't argue that Salvy and Grandal are the top two catchers individually.

[Thegrin]

This is an interesting way to look at our competition.  I hope you continue and include the top prospects for each ot the teams, as well. 

[prouster]

I'm also not convinced Garver still has to prove himself offensively. He performed well through the minors, last year was goofball, and it's unlikely he will suddenly forget how to hit for the rest of his career.

 

He stopped hitting fastballs, which is a pretty big red flag. If you can’t hit fastballs, MLB pitchers will eat you for lunch. Hopefully he finds his stroke again. We’ll see what happens with him if the ball is indeed deadened, as the league says it will be.

[Dodecahedron]

 

He stopped hitting fastballs, which is a pretty big red flag. If you can’t hit fastballs, MLB pitchers will eat you for lunch. Hopefully he finds his stroke again. We’ll see what happens with him if the ball is indeed deadened, as the league says it will be.

 

I have not been able to find data to back this up. Can you point me in the right direction?

For the data I can see, there are two things that stand out:

 

- He was hitting the ball just as hard as before, but his launch angle increased 3 degrees. He was not getting good contact.

- He was swinging and missing on more pitches, both inside and outside of the strike zone.

 

Everything I can see suggests this was a standard, boring, run-of-the-mill hitter's slump which he was probably trying to overcompensate for, amplified by a shortened season.

[prouster]

 

I have not been able to find data to back this up. Can you point me in the right direction?

For the data I can see, there are two things that stand out:

 

- He was hitting the ball just as hard as before, but his launch angle increased 3 degrees. He was not getting good contact.

- He was swinging and missing on more pitches, both inside and outside of the strike zone.

 

Everything I can see suggests this was a standard, boring, run-of-the-mill hitter's slump which he was probably trying to overcompensate for, amplified by a shortened season.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/mitch-garver/15161/stats#pitch-values

 

Fangraphs' Pitch Value tool shows how a hitter fared against different pitch types. 0.0 is average. Above that is above average, and below is of course below average. Garver murdered fastballs in 2019 (24.8) and had a really hard time with them last year (-3.6).

 

On top of that, the percentage of fastballs he saw last year ticked up by a little less than 1% compared to 2019—probably not enough to think twice about. His O-Swing% went down while is Z-Swing% went up. His contact % both outside and inside the zone went down (Z-Contact% went from from 88% in 2019 to 76.5% in 2020). He also saw a higher overall percentage of pitches in the strike zone last year than in 2019, and his swinging strike % ballooned from 8% to 13%. This all suggests he was swinging and missing at more pitches he should have hit, many of which were fastballs.

[Dodecahedron]

Yes, I saw that, but those are weighted runs and not hits. I'm also unsure of those are actual runs or a "runs generated" type of uberstat.

 

Is there something quantitative that shows that he can't hit fastballs anymore?

[Dodecahedron]

Ah, I answered my own question. Those metrics tie at-bat events to this table:

 

http://www.tangotiger.net/customlwts.html

 

Thus, it's not measuring actual runs or actual events that happen in at-bats.

 

Personally, I don't find these approaches reliable predictors, but they are fine for looking backward.

 

What we really need is:

 

- How many hits did Garver have off of fastballs

- How many hits did Garver have off of other pitches

v. previous year(s)

 

And

 

- How many strikes did Garver have off of fastballs

- How many strikes did Garver have off of other pitch types

v. previous years(s)

 

Then we can verify your statement. Does anyone have this?

[prouster]

 

Ah, I answered my own question. Those metrics tie at-bat events to this table:

 

http://www.tangotiger.net/customlwts.html

 

Thus, it's not measuring actual runs or actual events that happen in at-bats.

 

Personally, I don't find these approaches reliable predictors, but they are fine for looking backward.

 

What we really need is:

 

- How many hits did Garver have off of fastballs

- How many hits did Garver have off of other pitches

v. previous year(s)

 

And

 

- How many strikes did Garver have off of fastballs

- How many strikes did Garver have off of other pitch types

v. previous years(s)

 

Then we can verify your statement. Does anyone have this?

I can't find any data that granulated. Agree that FG's pitch values aren't predictive. They basically show how much WPA a player contributed by pitch type compared to their peers. My basic concern is that Garver had more pitches to hit and made contact with fewer of them, while the percentage of fastballs remained pretty much the same as in 2019. To me, this suggests that he was missing pitches he should have been hitting. I think that's quite alarming, because hitting fastballs is the absolute least a MLB hitter needs to be able to do. However, I believe this is a red flag and not a kiss of death.

 

Hopefully it was just a slump or an injury. He's 30 and plays a tough position, though, so my fear is that he's already lost some bat speed.

[Dodecahedron]

I agree that Garver had a very poor 2020 and an unsustainable 2019. 

 

I feel like he will still do some good things, but time will tell.