Previewing Spring Training Battles: The Last Rotation Spot

[Matthew Lenz]

Derek Falvey was quoted as saying the Twins are “likely done adding big ticket contracts” this offseason, which gives us an idea of the Spring Training battles we’ll have this year. This article will be the first in a short series previewing those spring training battles.In the coming days we will look at the battle for left field, as well as the last bench spot. But first, let’s take a look at the candidates for the last spot in the rotation. On Thursday, KSTP’s Darren Wolfson said the Twins have an offer out to veteran right hander Matt Shoemaker who, I don’t believe, would be a lock for the fifth spot if he was signed by the club.

 

Shoemaker, who has been very good when healthy, hasn’t had a healthy season in four years so there is inherent risk in signing him that will still make for an intriguing battle between the current options on the Twins roster. If Shoemaker does sign with the club, I would make him the odds on favorite to win the job but that’s not a guarantee ... you might recall that the Twins signed Anibal Sanchez in 2018 and released him a month later after struggling through Spring Training. Wolfson stated that there were multiple teams interested in Shoemaker, so if he does decide to sign somewhere else then who will compete for that fifth spot?

 

Randy Dobnak

After a productive start to his career in 2019 and the first half of 2020, the wheels really fell off for Dobnak which led to getting sent down to the alternate site and being left off the postseason roster last year. I’ve always been a bit wary of Dobnak’s production as it seemed too good to be true, which you can read about in more detail here, and have the same concerns heading into this season. His Savant profile from 2020, seen below, is fairly concerning and moreover his most oft used pitch (fastball/sinker) was normally spotted really well in the bottom corners of the zone yet batters had a xwOBA of .342 against the pitch.

 

Download attachment: Screen Shot 2021-02-13 at 9.02.52 PM.png

All of that said, out of the undermentioned options the Twins have, Dobnak does boast the strongest track record, and the reconfiguration of the infield plays right into his strengths. You see, over the last two seasons, Dobnak has the second best ground ball percentage of all starters who have pitched 70 innings or more and would benefit greatly from the addition of Simmons and Polanco sliding over to second base. If the Twins don’t get Shoemaker, Dobnak will probably be the favorite to be the fifth starter in 2021.

 

Lewis Thorpe

Thorpe had a very rough 2020 season both personally and professionally, which was detailed by Twins Daily own Cody Pirkl back in October, and this was following a 2019 where he posted an ERA of 6.18 over 27 2/3 innings pitched. I guess you could say Thorpe has had a rough start to his 44 inning career to this point, BUT we should not forget that he is only 25-years-old and just two years ago was the Twins #11 rated prospect by Major League Baseball. Furthermore, he peaked as the Twins #9 prospect in 2014 and his scouting report read “... Thorpe could be the best to come from Down Under,” which speaks to how highly thought of he once was, but then missed 2015 and 2016 due to Tommy John surgery and contracting mono during rehab.

 

Thorpe has A LOT to prove and will be entering the most pivotal Spring Training of his career as he is out of Minor League options, but that might actually play into his favor as the Twins would need to designate him for assignment which would allow another team to snag him. If he and Dobnak are viewed similarly by the time the season starts, you could see the Twins give him the first opportunity at the back end of the rotation as a “one last shot” situation. Thorpe is truly a wild card, but has a higher ceiling and similar floor compared to Dobank which makes me lean towards giving him the first shot in the rotation.

 

Prospects

Although long shots, it’s worth mentioning that Jordan Balazovic (#97 prospect in baseball) and Jhoan Duran (#5 Twins prospect) will also have opportunities to compete for the last rotation spot. That said, a combination of the service time game, a jumbled 2020 season, and neither having much experience above High-A tells me this is highly unlikely. That said, they have some upside and will be fun to see where they are at in their Spring Training opportunities. For Duran, I wouldn’t rule out seeing him in a reliever role at some point in 2021 if the Twins deal with some injuries.

 

Free Agents

We’ve already talked about Shoemaker and mentioned that Falvey doesn’t see the Twins adding any more “big ticket contracts.” But for fun, I would love to see Jake Odorizzi or Taijuan Walker added to the mix. Odorizzi would slot ahead of Happ (*whispers* and maybe Berrios) making him the fifth starter, while Walker would likely compete for the fifth starter job with the aforementioned names in this article.

 

Trading for a Starter

The Twins are loaded. Keith Law has them as the eighth best Minor League system in the majors and having a surplus of quality outfield prospects in the minors that may be ready for The Show. I don’t foresee a trade happening anytime soon, but the Twins have the assets to add a quality arm if one becomes available at the trade deadline.

 

Who do you think wins the fifth rotation spot? Do you believe in Dobnak?

 

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[tarheeltwinsfan]

Nice article. I vote to sign Odo.

[Fatbat]

Odo would be great! I suspect that the FO wants a young arm or 3 to make spot starts and fill in long relief. If Thorpe shows well in spring training, he will be on the 26 man opening day. Doing simple math, 120 starts for the top 4 leaves 42 other starts for 3 or 4 other guys to split up between April and September. It's a team game!!!

[mikelink45]

I want the fifth spot open to rookies and prospects.  Why sign a number 5 who will just fill a slot when we can use it to develop the future.  The number 5 does not start in the playoffs (especially if we can't get to a fifth game) and I see no value in pushing the young players down. 

[ashbury]

I want the fifth spot open to rookies and prospects.  Why sign a number 5 who will just fill a slot when we can use it to develop the future.  The number 5 does not start in the playoffs (especially if we can't get to a fifth game) and I see no value in pushing the young players down. 

I agree a lot with this. I find scouting reports of prospects useful that try to peg a pitcher's role, "could be a #1," "slots somewhere as a #2/3" etc., but I think it's crazy to say "ceiling is a #5". There is no such thing! You don't see a guy hold the #5 spot in a rotation for three or four years - not even a full season, usually. Whereas, for position players, it makes perfect sense to say that Jake Cave or Ehire Adrianza's best role is as a backup. #5 is for prospects being given a first chance, and veterans given a last chance. Thin ice, always. It's not a job, it's an opportunity. If you're signing a guy for millions with #5 in mind, it can't be the best use for that money. Just can't. Hopefully a Shoemaker contract isn't for much.

 

[HrbieFan]

I'm tired of Odo being a 5 and fly pitcher for over $10m. Would definitely gamble on Walker, his arm is electric when healthy. Dobnak has done nothing wrong to lose his spot, so no issues with him either. Thorpe has been a prospect crush for a few years and needs to show results this spring

[Dantes929]

if Dobnak is obviously one of your top 3 pitchers you probably should be concerned.  If he is obviously not one of your top 4, you should probably be pretty happy to have him as your #5 as I think he is at least league average.  The wheels fell off and he still had  a FIP of 3.96

[Linus]

I hope they are not done. They need another bullpen arm and a starter if they want to contend. Even with that there will be plenty of opportunities for the young players.

[Rosterman]

Odorizzi is a five inning pitcher. But could the Twins live without Dobnak, Smeltzer or Thorpe longterm? Could Thorpe develop into a solid bullpen arm if nothing else? That is the bigger question with him.

 

Looking at the Twins alternatives and that there are still arms of equal strength to "buy" - the Twins basically need someone who can pitch half-the-0season and possibly be tradebait, with hopes that Bala or Duran can come up during the season, or that two of the three I mentioned above are still in the wings in case of an emergency need.

[Trov]

I would be okay with Dobnak and still love his story getting him to majors.  He needs to learn how to get guys out faster though.  He does not have miss stuff too much and so many foul balls are hit off of him.  I think Simmons will be a huge difference maker for Dobnak and hope he gets another chance.  

 

I would not mind Odo coming back with the expected dead ball, or deader than last couple years, would help him a ton too.  Similar issue with him is too high pitch count in a few innings.  I know Twins hate sending starter out for third time through rotation anyways so high pitch count for 5 innings does not affect too much how they manage going forward.  

 

The prospects will not break with the team unless they are unhittable in spring or injuries to guys ahead of them.

[old nurse]

It is not  just the 5th starter, it is the 5/6/7/8 starter.  One does not expect performance issues from their 1-4 starters. Injuries do happen, hence the 6/7 starters  Disaster happens. Nagging annoying stuff happens to pitchers. There is a need for an 8th. You do not want 8 starts out of a new version of Pedro Hernandez. Dobnak Smelzer and Thorpe might not be appealing to the management hence the interest in a pitcher likely to cause the team to need number 6 and 7 starter. 

[rdehring]

Agree with most of the above comments. Yet, still would like to see them make a trade for some competition for Dobnak. Can see them trade a good prospect or two for a better prospect who is closer to being ready. Maybe someone about the same spot in their experience as Thorpe/Smeltzer, but a bit more successful. Somebody who could be expected to step in and do well.

[bobs]

  If an addition is someone like Shoemaker, I think they may as well go with the combo of Dobnak/Thorpe/Smeltzer....maybe Duran later in the season.  I just don't think Shoemaker improves the rotation as it stands now other than making it a little deeper....and that's using the term "deeper" pretty liberally. 

  I am 100% in the Odorizzi camp...he actually makes the rotation better b/c you push Happ to the #5 slot.