3 X-Factors for the 2021 Twins

[Nash Walker]

Using PECOTA projections, who has the ability to impact the Twins most at their peak performance?For this exercise, I looked at the 90th percentile outcomes for the Twins. Baseball Prospectus’ famous PECOTA projections has a tool to see the upside of players. Who, at their 90th percentile of production can make the biggest impact for the Twins?

 

BYRON BUXTON

 

90th percentile: 127 G, .268/.333/.515 (.848 OPS), 26 HR, 5.18 WARP

 

Buxton’s recent power advances have furthered his upside, which was already enormous. He’s slugged a ridiculous .534 over the last two seasons with 60 extra-base hits in 126 games. He saved more runs defensively than any centerfielder in baseball in 2020, despite playing in only 39 of 60 games.

 

Buxton also led the Twins in bWAR (2.1) and was on pace to be a 7-win player over 130 games. The Twins have had just seven 7-win hitters in team history: Rod Carew (three times), Kirby Puckett (twice), Tony Oliva, Joe Mauer, Zoilo Versalles, Bob Allison and Chuck Knoblauch.

 

No one with less 300 games played since 2017 has more bWAR than Buxton (9.8). He played in 65% of games in 2020, his most since 2017 when he appeared in 140 and finished 18th for A.L. MVP on mostly defense alone.

 

There’s legitimate reason to believe Buxton’s power is here to stay, too:

 

 

Buxton is in his prime. His health is massively important to the Twins in 2021. He can be the difference between 90 and 100 wins. He can be the difference between a first round exit and a World Series title. He’s *that* much of an elite talent.

 

MIGUEL SANÓ

 

90th percentile: 144 G, .272/.375/.579 (.954 OPS), 38 HR, 5.05 WARP

 

Even if he regresses some, Nelson Cruz should again be an anchor in 2021. Josh Donaldson will produce when healthy. Mitch Garver and Ryan Jeffers will be a formidable offensive duo. The real right-handed wild card is Sanó. The lineup could middle or thrive depending on his production.

 

PECOTA confirms what we know: he carries massive upside. This ridiculous .954 OPS is just 31 points lower than Sanó’s OPS in 2019, when he hit 34 homers in just 105 games. Sanó was putting together a really strong 2020 season after a slow start, hitting .248/.347/.552 with 18 extra-base hits in 32 games through Aug. 31.

 

He then went 12-for-81 (.148) to finish the season. He struck out in 46% of his plate appearances and walked just three times. Sanó's highs are very high and his lows can be very low. If he has more peaks than valleys in 2021, the Twins will benefit greatly.

 

MICHAEL PINEDA

 

24 GS, 131 IP, 2.66 ERA, 10.1 K/9, 1.99 WARP

 

PECOTA is beyond bullish on Kenta Maeda for 2021, projecting his 50th percentile ERA to be worse than *only* Jacob deGrom and Clayton Kershaw. The system likes José Berríos as a top 30 to 35 starter. The Twins hope both those projections are true and that J.A. Happ and Randy Dobnak will eat quality innings on the back end.

 

The ace in the hole could be "Big Mike." Pineda was fantastic in his final 14 starts of 2019. He posted a 2.96 ERA and held opponents to a .650 OPS. He continued that excellence into five September starts in 2020.

 

 

If he can pitch like that over a full season, the Twins will boast a very good top three for the playoffs. Pineda’s health and production is key to how the rotation holds up in 2021.

 

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[Nine of twelve]

After so many years of post-season pain and disappointment we Twins fans deserve favorable treatment from the baseball gods. It would be right and good and proper if every player on the roster has a 90th-percentile season.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Agree 100 %

[Twodogs]

Buxton needs to start more than 127 games, he needs to be up at 140 or so for the twins sake. Pineda needs to start 30+ games, hopefully.

[DocBauer]

Here's the thing about these projections; none of them are far-fetched at all!

 

Buxton just has to remain relatively healthy. He and the Twins have taken steps to help in this area. The shot to the head late in 2020 was not his fault.

 

We can't talk about how weird 2020 was an how many players were affected in so many ways, and offer up plausible excuses for those players, and not offer up excuses/exemptions for Sano as well. He probably had his best overall season in 2019 once he got past his bizarre injury and seemed to really mature, he had a good 2020 going until late. Would he have rebounded during a normal, full length season and finished just as strong?

 

Pineda is an interesting study as the arm talent was never in doubt earlier in his career. He had some injuries that held him back for a time and prevented him from reaching his full potential. Except for a few mediocre initial starts in his Twins career, he has been good to outstanding when on the hill. Some of his pure stuff has waned over time, but he might actually be a better, smarter pitcher than he was before.

 

You can say these projections are optimistic, and you'd be right. But that optimism is grounded in sound projectability of talent and production already witnessed.

[twinfan]

I'm looking for a higher average from Buxton and about 30 steals. I don't think he'll hit that many home runs and hope he can play 130-35 games. I'm worried about Pineda. He was great last September but he has never had that good a streak. I would be surprised if Sano hits higher than .250 but he could hit 45 home runs if he doesn't get benched. My bigger X-factors would be Garver, Rogers and Cruz as of right now. Garver and Rogers have to bounce back and Cruz has to keep chugging.

[IndianaTwin]

I honestly don't think Buxton will ever steal 30 bases. It's not that he couldn't -- I just think there are several things against him. There's both the tendency for Rocco not to use stolen bases a lot and and the fear of injury, but there's another factor as well. Because of the power that he's developed, outfielders have to play him deep. Because they are playing him deep, his bloop singles become doubles and he's already on second. It's for the same reason that I don't think he'll ever lead the league in triples. Outfielders are playing him deep, so there's less chance of splitting the gap or having the outfielder needing to run a long way to field the ball.  

[theJemmer]

If he's gonna slide headfirst into second, I'd prefer he never steal. Shoulder, wrists, ... just not worth the injury risk.  

 

 

I honestly don't think Buxton will ever steal 30 bases. It's not that he couldn't -- I just think there are several things against him. There's both the tendency for Rocco not to use stolen bases a lot and and the fear of injury, but there's another factor as well. Because of the power that he's developed, outfielders have to play him deep. Because they are playing him deep, his bloop singles become doubles and he's already on second. It's for the same reason that I don't think he'll ever lead the league in triples. Outfielders are playing him deep, so there's less chance of splitting the gap or having the outfielder needing to run a long way to field the ball.