The Twins Interest in Matt Shoemaker is Intriguing

[Andrew Thares]

It is hard to find someone with a better pulse on what the Minnesota Twins front office is doing these days than Darren Wolfson, who Thursday morning mentioned that the Twins have interest in veteran starting pitcher Matt Shoemaker.Initially, my reaction to the Twins being interested in Matt Shoemaker was, ho-hum. However, that started to change when I began doing a little digging on Shoemaker, and realized he is the prototype pitcher that the Falvine regime likes to target and turn into a much-improved pitcher on a low-risk high reward deal.

 

First, a little background on Shoemaker. He is a 34-year-old right-handed starter, with a career 3.86 ERA (4.03 FIP) with 8.1 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 602 1/3 innings pitched, in a career that spans parts of eight different seasons with the Los Angeles Angels and Toronto Blue Jays.

 

On the surface, Shoemaker’s 28 2/3 innings pitched in 2020 were not very impressive, as he posted an ERA of 4.71 (5.95 FIP). Additionally, Shoemaker has made just 32 starts and pitched just 166 innings at the MLB level since the start of the 2017 season. Much of the time he missed in 2017 and 2018 was from a right forearm injury, and when he finally recovered from that, he unfortunately tore his ACL on a freak rundown play back in April of 2019, causing him to miss the rest of that season.

 

All this seems like a pitcher the Twins should steer clear from, but to me, this is all plays into why he would be a good target for the Twins and their small remaining budget, because he’s cheap. However, Matt Shoemaker is a lot more than just cheap, as there is reason to believe he could be a quality addition to the backend of the Twins rotation for the 2021 season. Let’s get into a few of those reasons, before all of you think I’m crazy.

 

Velocity Spike

 

The first thing I noticed when diving into Matt Shoemaker was the velocity spike that he had in 2020, particularly on his fastball. After following a typical early 30’s velocity decline, Shoemaker pumped his average fastball velocity up by 1.6 MPH on his 2019 average.

 

Download attachment: chart.png

 

While it is hard to know for sure what caused this, I can’t help but think it has something to do with Shoemaker finally being back healthy from the forearm injury that gave him so much trouble for a couple of seasons. While there is also an argument that could be made that the shortened 2020 seasons is what allowed Shoemaker to spike his fastball velocity, this wouldn’t make sense with his career norm as he has shown a tendency to increase, not decrease, his fastball velocity as the season progresses.

 

Download attachment: chart (1).png

 

Additionally, his fastball spike started to pay some dividends in the advanced metrics, particularly with his Four-seamer, where his expected wOBA dropped from a career .390 down to just .214 in 2020 on that pitch.

 

Revamping His Pitch Usage

 

Despite the improvement to his fastball in 2020, Shoemaker didn’t see a lot of tangible benefit to his performance as he was, by that account, not a very good pitcher in 2020. The big problem for Shoemaker was the home runs, as he gave up eight of them in just six starts last season. However, none of those eight home runs came off of Shoemaker’s four-seamer, as four came off his splitter, three off his sinker and one off his slider.

 

In fact, opposing hitters thoroughly struggled against Shoemaker’s four-seamer in 2020, as they combined to go just 2-for-15 off that pitch, with zero extra-base hits. Despite this show of improvement, Shoemaker and the Blue Jays failed to utilize this improvement to their advantage, as he only threw his four-seamer 18.6% of the time, which is well below his career average of 26.3% leading into the season.

 

Instead, they continued to focus the majority of his fastball usage on his sinker (25.6% of pitches in 2020), which has been a flat-out awful pitch for the almost the entirety of Shoemaker’s career. This is where an opportunity lies for the Twins to take advantage of. If they simply cut the usage of Shoemaker’s awful sinker in favor of what appears to be a much improved four-seamer, it would instantly bring his game to a whole new level.

 

Additionally, Shoemaker showed some improvement with his slider in 2020, as opposing hitters hit just .231 with a .337 wOBA and a .305 expected wOBA off that pitch. The one home run he did give up on his slider last season traveled all of 365 feet, and apart from that, opposing hitters rarely squared up the pitch, as they combined for an 80.4 MPH average exit velocity against it last season. For reference, in the Statcast era, there has not been a single qualified hitter who has posted a season with an average exit velocity below that of Billy Hamilton’s 80.5 MPH in 2017 and 2018. This could be another point of emphasis for the Twins in trying to get more out of Matt Shoemaker in 2021.

 

When looking at it this way, you can see how one or two simple changes could make a world of difference in Matt Shoemaker’s ability to get hitters out. Additionally, this change is exactly something that the Twins would be keen on making as doing away with the sinker, and upping the four-seamer and slider usage, has been a focal point of their pitching philosophy in recent years.

 

You factor all of that in with the Twins ability to get the absolute most out of pitchers when other couldn’t (just look at Kenta Maeda last year as an example) and the Twins could have themselves a more than credible option to compete for a spot in the Twins starting rotation this spring, and he would likely be doing so on a cheap, low-risk deal for the Twins.

 

— Latest Twins coverage from our writers

— Recent Twins discussion in our forums

— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

 

Click here to view the article

[Otwins]

Would love to see Shoemaker fill the fifth spot. Thanks for the write up

[Seansy]

Great write up. Do we think he will require a ML deal or could he be brought in as a NRI?

 

If he requires a ML deal I hope they can tack on a team option so they can keep him another year if he pitches well.

[Seansy]

Great write up. Do we think he will require a ML deal or could he be brought in as a NRI?

 

If he requires a ML deal I hope they can tack on a team option so they can keep him another year if he pitches well.

[saviking]

How cheap?

[jmlease1]

Bringing Shoemaker in to compete for the 5th spot sounds like a solid idea. Dobnak is fine but probably shouldn't get the spot on scholarship, and frankly we'll need the pitching depth...because everyone needs the pitching depth.

 

And I would be really interested to see if tweaking his pitch mix has a significant impact. That's the sort of thing that makes it a realistic upside play and not just "well, we need another veteran"

[DocBauer]

This is not an exciting move. But does it have to be? It's a smart flier for the 5th spot that provides depth and could be really solid. There's really nothing to dislike about this move.

[nicksaviking]

Yeah, a trade then James Paxton are my top choices, but if those don't happen, a flyer on a vet for the 5th spot is still my preference to Dobnak or a long term deal with Odorizzi. 

 

Shoemaker would fit that bill just fine for me.

[joefish]

Is a 1.something mph increase really a spike?

 

He sounds like a low risk guy though. Give him a locker for spring training.

[MGM4706]

Doogie has his pulse on the Twins? Really? All of his reporting is after the fact. If not it never comes true. All of the .com guys get the scoops on Twin City Teams. Never the local guys.

[Otwins]

I always wonder when a name is revealed to a local beat writer if there is not a motive. Like the Twins have an offer out to Ozuna so it gets back to Cruz. Do they really want Shoemaker?  That would be fine with me. Or is there someone else that they want to know there are other offers in play?  I guess we will find out.

[ashbury]

I always wonder when a name is revealed to a local beat writer if there is not a motive. Like the Twins have an offer out to Ozuna so it gets back to Cruz. Do they really want Shoemaker?  That would be fine with me. Or is there someone else that they want to know there are other offers in play?  I guess we will find out.

It has to be plausible, though, or it could backfire. If Odorizzi or Paxton thinks, "Shoemaker? yeah, right," it will just burn bridges for the team.

 

And they can't be caught bluffing. This isn't poker. If they don't sign Shoemaker, and don't sign someone at least as good, next year's "Cruz" won't take the bait.

 

[Alex Schieferdecker]

How is it possible that there are still MLB teams with guys throwing a ton of awful sinkers?

[Channing1964]

I like Shoemaker, but i would have liked Odorizzi more.

[ashbury]

I like Shoemaker, but i would have liked Odorizzi more.

Sure, but probably the comparison is, would you have liked Odo plus a waiver-wire project, more than Shoemaker plus Happ. About $10M either way.

 

It will be interesting at the end of the season to add up Shoemaker's good games and Happ's, subtracting their bad games, and compare to Odorizzi's good-minus-bad (with presumably some other team).

 

[Channing1964]

 

Sure, but probably the comparison is, would you have liked Odo plus a waiver-wire project, more than Shoemaker plus Happ. About $10M either way.

 

It will be interesting at the end of the season to add up Shoemaker's good games and Happ's, subtracting their bad games, and compare to Odorizzi's good-minus-bad (with presumably some other team). 

 

I don't see why they cant bring Odo back on a 2/20 mil deal and let Dobnak, Odorizzi,Happ, and Shoemaker fight it out for the last two rotation spots. From what I know about Shoemaker, his stuff makes him a nasty middle or long reliever. Dobnak can be optioned and there you have it. Another 10 mil in payroll is not over the budget at all. If anybody gets hurt our rotation will struggle.