Offseason Live Replay: Sorting Out the Bullpen

[Nick Nelson]

Are the Twins done shopping for relievers? How does their current bullpen makeup compare to other contenders? Which arms are likely to make the cut for Opening Day?

 

Thursday night on Offseason Live, we tried and sort it all out.Since we last convened on

, the Twins acquired two more right-handed relief pitchers: Ian Hamilton via waivers from Philadelphia, and Shaun Anderson via trade from San Francisco in exchange for LaMonte Wade Jr.

 

With those two added to the bullpen mix, and 40-man roster, it's suddenly a rather crowded picture. Anderson and Hamilton join Taylor Rogers, Alex Colomé, Tyler Duffey, Caleb Thielbar, Hansel Robles, Jorge Alcala, Cody Stashak, Ian Gibaut, Edwar Colina, Dakota Chalmers, and others vying for the eight available bullpen jobs.

 

On a new episode of Offseason Live on Thursday night, I was joined by John Bonnes and David Youngs as we analyzed the bullpen outlook, ranked the current options, and predicted who will make the Opening Day roster. Watch below!

 

Tune into future live broadcast on Twins Daily's Twitter, Facebook, or YouTube page. It's an interactive show where viewers help steer the conversation via comments and questions. You can also catch each new episode via audio by subscribing to our podcast.

 

 

In the meantime, check out previous episodes of Offseason Live and see what's upcoming:

• Ep 1:
  (Thurs, 10/8)
• Ep 2:
  (Tues, 10/13)
• Ep 3:
  (Thurs, 10/15)
• Ep 4:
  (Tues, 10/20)
• Ep 5:
  (Thurs, 10/22)
• Ep 6:
  (Tues, 10/27)
• Ep 7:
  (Thurs, 10/29)
• Ep 8:
  (Thurs, 11/5)
• Ep 9:
  (Thurs, 11/12)
• Ep 10:
  (Tues, 11/17)
• Ep 11:
  (Weds, 12/2)
• Ep 12:
  (Weds, 12/16)
• Ep 13:
  (Weds, 12/30)
• Ep 14:
  (Weds, 1/6)
• Ep 15:
  (Tues, 1/12)
• Ep 16:
  (Mon, 1/25)
• Ep 17:
  (Tues, 1/26)
• Ep 18:
  (Weds, 2/3)
• Ep 19:
  (Thurs, 2/11)

 

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[MGM4706]

Good article but why does it have to be written every single year!! What players are "Left over" for the Twins? What 5.0 Era guy can we get. What Tommy John guy is available?

Just one year can't we go get an Ace? Rarely does a Playoff team win without an Ace!

[Nick Nelson]

They traded for the Cy Young runner-up last year

[Darius]

They traded for the Cy Young runner-up last year

That’s an undeniable fact. But, let’s be honest, he was not acquired to be the ace of the staff at the time of the trade. The Cy Young runner-up kind of fell into their lap unexpectedly. If anyone thought it may be the case, the Dodgers would’ve asked for more or kept him outright; other teams would’ve been involved, etc.

 

Working with that level of hindsight, and making the jump to “see, there’s no pitching acquisition/retention issue here,” is a bridge too far and pretty disingenuous. We’re talking about a club that recently ran Randy Dobnak out in a playoff series in Yankee Stadium. We’re also talking about a club that pulled its Cy Young runner up after 5 with a 2 hitter in a playoff game....for less than desirable options. A reasonable baseball person can’t believe that’s a formula for sustained playoff success (or any playoff success, for that matter), with only one example of an acquisition at that level in their tenure. It’s like playing the lottery and calling it a job (sure, you’re doing something, but what are the odds it’s going to payoff?).

 

It was also a shortened seasons, and his efficacy going forward remains to be seen, IMO. He switched leagues and had an “unknown” factor to him with the Twins tweaking his pitch mix.

 

He’ll be a solid pitcher no doubt, but I think it’s a mistake to expect Maeda to be a Cy Young contender for the foreseeable future.

 

The bargain bin works out occasionally. I think the gripe some have is there is a historical lack of willingness to commit significant dollars or prospect capital to a proven front-line starter. Whether that’s ownership, FO philosophy, or whatever.....that’s also an undeniable fact.

 

If the philosophy is that it’s better to develop pitching, fine. But, we’re not seeing that yet. It takes time, and that’s understood. But, we’re currently in a rare playoff window for this club. I don’t think it’s unreasonable for a segment of fans to feel like it’s being wasted because we don’t have the horses in the rotation for a World Series run. I feel like it’s unreasonable to not be concerned about how far the pitching staff as a while can carry this team, no matter how many runs they score.

[mike8791]

Nick, am a big fan of your stuff but I think you might underestimate the profound disgust many of us long-term Twins fans feel about this org's long term inability to make some big moves that would elevate a good team into a championship contender.

The Ryan regime encapsulated the low-risk MO of the organization by not building on competitive teams in the aughts to make midseason additions that could have brought us closer to another championship.  In particular, the 2006 and 2010 were two terrific teams that fell short in the playoffs.  Ryan by refusing to trade any of his prized prospects failed to add enough to fill some obvious weaknesses.  BTW, none of his prospects really contributed to future Twins success.

 

This nibbling at the edges has been continued by Falvine.  Yes, Donaldson was, we hope, a strong addition, as was the Maeda trade, but as Darius notes, they found a pitcher unneeded and underutilized by the Dodgers and actually gave up a "top" PROSPECT  in Graterol to get him.  The fact that Maeda turned into an ace was a pleasant surprise, but what are the odds that he does the same over a full 160 game season?  The FO should have agressively gone after another top-of-the-rotation starter, like Snell, Darvish, maybe even ones like Castillo or Gray from the Reds, to greatly improve their chances in 2021, just like they should have signed a bona fide closer in case Rogers downhill slide continues.  And while they have been in charge for 4+ years, none of their draft choices seem ready to help this team in the near future; in fact, their #1 overall pick, Lewis, has continued a steady slide down prospect rankings(#46 in Law's latest).

 

I would like to see more attention paid by TD writers to the concerns many of us have that this org, from Pohlad down to Falvey, has shown little commitment to going all out for a championship.  If not this year, when?

 

 

 

 

[Major League Ready]

 

Nick, am a big fan of your stuff but I think you might underestimate the profound disgust many of us long-term Twins fans feel about this org's long term inability to make some big moves that would elevate a good team into a championship contender.

The Ryan regime encapsulated the low-risk MO of the organization by not building on competitive teams in the aughts to make midseason additions that could have brought us closer to another championship.  In particular, the 2006 and 2010 were two terrific teams that fell short in the playoffs.  Ryan by refusing to trade any of his prized prospects failed to add enough to fill some obvious weaknesses.  BTW, none of his prospects really contributed to future Twins success.

 

This nibbling at the edges has been continued by Falvine.  Yes, Donaldson was, we hope, a strong addition, as was the Maeda trade, but as Darius notes, they found a pitcher unneeded and underutilized by the Dodgers and actually gave up a "top" PROSPECT  in Graterol to get him.  The fact that Maeda turned into an ace was a pleasant surprise, but what are the odds that he does the same over a full 160 game season?  The FO should have agressively gone after another top-of-the-rotation starter, like Snell, Darvish, maybe even ones like Castillo or Gray from the Reds, to greatly improve their chances in 2021, just like they should have signed a bona fide closer in case Rogers downhill slide continues.  And while they have been in charge for 4+ years, none of their draft choices seem ready to help this team in the near future; in fact, their #1 overall pick, Lewis, has continued a steady slide down prospect rankings(#46 in Law's latest).

 

I would like to see more attention paid by TD writers to the concerns many of us have that this org, from Pohlad down to Falvey, has shown little commitment to going all out for a championship.  If not this year, when?

 

Give us some examples of teams with below average revenue that traded away the kind of package necessary to land a "Castillo" and then made it to the WS.

 

Give us examples of teams with below average revenue that landed the top free agent SP in free agency. I will save you the trouble. It's happened twice in the past 20+ years. The first was Mike Hamilton with Colorado. That was an unmitigated disaster. The other was Greinke to Arizona. That happened to be the year the Dbacks signed a TV contract that was a huge revenue boost. That move also proved to be quite ineffective.

 

In other words, you are bent out of shape about things that virtually every GM of teams with similar revenue restrictions consider to be poor practices.

[mike8791]

Major League Ready - you missed the main points!!  First, a trade for Snell would not have put the Twins in the poor house; his annual pay was around $13MM.  Gray is in about same range.  If our prospects are so good, then it should not be unrealistic to trade for either of these two.

 

Second, no one is saying the Twins should go after a Bauer in FA.  No one!  Nor do I think Hendricks contract was wise, but guys like Yates, Rosenthal, or Hands would have been very affordable and an appreciable upgrade from Colome, who the Sox deemed expendable after 2 seasons.

 

The point here is simply that Twins mgt. has never shown or even expressed the desire that their only goal is winning a championship.  Being competitive might satisfy your wishes, but not mine.  I agree our TV package is on the low side, but Pohlad and company continue to live in a banker's world where the bottom line is everything.  Why haven't they learned that in order to succeed you must invest first, then reap the rewards later?  Unfortunately, the conservative banking mentality seems to be the key criteria in hiring the Ryans and Falveys of the world to run their baseball org.

[Major League Ready]

 

Major League Ready - you missed the main points!!  First, a trade for Snell would not have put the Twins in the poor house; his annual pay was around $13MM.  Gray is in about same range.  If our prospects are so good, then it should not be unrealistic to trade for either of these two.

 

Second, no one is saying the Twins should go after a Bauer in FA.  No one!  Nor do I think Hendricks contract was wise, but guys like Yates, Rosenthal, or Hands would have been very affordable and an appreciable upgrade from Colome, who the Sox deemed expendable after 2 seasons.

 

The point here is simply that Twins mgt. has never shown or even expressed the desire that their only goal is winning a championship.  Being competitive might satisfy your wishes, but not mine.  I agree our TV package is on the low side, but Pohlad and company continue to live in a banker's world where the bottom line is everything.  Why haven't they learned that in order to succeed you must invest first, then reap the rewards later?  Unfortunately, the conservative banking mentality seems to be the key criteria in hiring the Ryans and Falveys of the world to run their baseball org.

 

No, the salary would have not been problematic but it would have meant foregoing either Simmons or Cruz. The real cost was that they gave up the equivalent to Balazovic / Duran and Rortvedt. That's a big bight out of the future and I don't see Snell as the guy who gives us the edge in game 1. He was great in 2017 but he has not been dominant with the exception of one playoff game.

 

You also missed my point. I asked for examples where this strategy where this has worked. KC would be the most obvious. However, they did not win it until after Shields was gone. The more important addition was a relative throw in (Davis). Also keep in mind that trading away Greinke was key in building that team. They managed to make their window really short. So, my point is that the strategy you suggest has very few success stories for teams with below average revenue. That's why this front office and others are not following your desired path.

[Channing1964]

Nick, am a big fan of your stuff but I think you might underestimate the profound disgust many of us long-term Twins fans feel about this org's long term inability to make some big moves that would elevate a good team into a championship contender.

The Ryan regime encapsulated the low-risk MO of the organization by not building on competitive teams in the aughts to make midseason additions that could have brought us closer to another championship.  In particular, the 2006 and 2010 were two terrific teams that fell short in the playoffs.  Ryan by refusing to trade any of his prized prospects failed to add enough to fill some obvious weaknesses.  BTW, none of his prospects really contributed to future Twins success.

 

This nibbling at the edges has been continued by Falvine.  Yes, Donaldson was, we hope, a strong addition, as was the Maeda trade, but as Darius notes, they found a pitcher unneeded and underutilized by the Dodgers and actually gave up a "top" PROSPECT  in Graterol to get him.  The fact that Maeda turned into an ace was a pleasant surprise, but what are the odds that he does the same over a full 160 game season?  The FO should have agressively gone after another top-of-the-rotation starter, like Snell, Darvish, maybe even ones like Castillo or Gray from the Reds, to greatly improve their chances in 2021, just like they should have signed a bona fide closer in case Rogers downhill slide continues.  And while they have been in charge for 4+ years, none of their draft choices seem ready to help this team in the near future; in fact, their #1 overall pick, Lewis, has continued a steady slide down prospect rankings(#46 in Law's latest).

 

I would like to see more attention paid by TD writers to the concerns many of us have that this org, from Pohlad down to Falvey, has shown little commitment to going all out for a championship.  If not this year, when?

[Nick Nelson]

 

That’s an undeniable fact. But, let’s be honest, he was not acquired to be the ace of the staff at the time of the trade. The Cy Young runner-up kind of fell into their lap unexpectedly. If anyone thought it may be the case, the Dodgers would’ve asked for more or kept him outright; other teams would’ve been involved, etc.

 

...

 

He’ll be a solid pitcher no doubt, but I think it’s a mistake to expect Maeda to be a Cy Young contender for the foreseeable future.

The bargain bin works out occasionally. I think the gripe some have is there is a historical lack of willingness to commit significant dollars or prospect capital to a proven front-line starter. Whether that’s ownership, FO philosophy, or whatever.....that’s also an undeniable fact.

This is just a strange portrayal of the Maeda trade. He didn't "fall into their lap," they traded their best pitching prospect and one of the most hyped young arms in the game for him. Graterol was a massive haul, and the Twins wouldn't have given him up if they didn't expect Maeda to be a frontline starter. He's exactly what fans have been clamoring for, and now he's insufficient because the Twins didn't overpay for him? Seems like they're being punished for making a good move. They did not get Kenta Maeda from the "bargain bin" ... frankly that's ludicrous.

 

 

Nick, am a big fan of your stuff but I think you might underestimate the profound disgust many of us long-term Twins fans feel about this org's long term inability to make some big moves that would elevate a good team into a championship contender.

 

...

 

I would like to see more attention paid by TD writers to the concerns many of us have that this org, from Pohlad down to Falvey, has shown little commitment to going all out for a championship.  If not this year, when?

I appreciate the kind words Mike! I share the historical frustration but I just don't see how it's valid anymore. They've set new franchise payroll records in 3 straight seasons. They went and signed Josh Donaldson for $100M a year ago despite him not filling an obvious need, solely for the purpose of putting them over the top. 

 

They have elevated a good team to a championship contender. The Twins are absolutely a championship contender as currently comprised. This front office is kicking ass. Let's give them some credit instead of rehashing grudges from the TR era! 

 

[DocBauer]

To the topic at hand:

 

I see no reason to believe Rogers won't be at least a close approximation to what be bas been previously. There is no injury factor or sudden loss of velocity. He had a short season, OK season in 2020 but wasn't what we'd seen before. There is no major concern at this point, IMO. Nor should there be any concern at this point for sudden regression of Duffey.

 

Where we can debate is Colome vs May for $2M more. Was a mistake made there? May has velocity and K numbers Colome can never match, even if Johnson tweaks his stuff/approach. But you can't deny the proven results of Colome over the past few years. The guy has been consistent and efficient as can be. Better in certain areas. And they are very different pitchers. I don't think it's totally fair to call them a "swap" because they are so different. Colome vs Romo, and how the pen was used, might be a better comparison. And in that regard, Colome might easily be an upgrade.

 

I continue to be very impressed by Stashak with his location, deception and presence. He still needs refinement or a "decent" 3rd offering to take another step. And it is very, very easy to see Alcala taking on a larger role by the end of the season with experience.

 

But to me, right now, to begin the season, the key to the pen is Robles. I toss out his 2020, as the Twins seem to also do, like so many others. I also toss out his 23 saves in 2019 not because he didn't do it, or can't do it, but because I'm focused on his career numbers and results. For his career, he has a higher BB per than I'd like. But his WHIP, ERA, over 9K per and other numbers are very solid. With ZERO Johnson magic, if we just get normal career numbers from Robles we've added a quality, experienced arm for the back half of the pen.

 

The Twins had a surprisingly solid pen the 1st half of 2019 and a better one the last half after changes. They bad one of the best pens in all MLB in 2020. And now they've swapped out May and Romo for Colome and Robles. Even swap or improvement? Factor in Alcala and Stashak getting better, a couple new arms for Johnson to work with, and then add in Colina at some point and MAYBE Chalmers...who is going to remain a SP as long as possible...and I'm just worried right now about the pen.

 

But my sense of any "worry" and key is Robles. If they got that signing right, the back end looks as good or better than what they had last season.