Dealing With the Dodgers

[Cody Pirkl]

The Dodgers decided they needed another pitcher this week and inked Trevor Bauer to an expensive deal. The result is that several starting caliber pitchers no longer have a role in the Dodgers rotation. A few teams should be giving LA a call about their glut of starting rotation options, and the Twins should be one of them.David Price

Price was traded from the Red Sox with Mookie Betts as a salary dump last offseason before opting out of the 2020 season. Despite the stigma of what many consider a bad contract, Price has thrown about 275 innings the last 3 years to the tune of a 3.94 ERA. The raw numbers say Price would still be a valuable addition to a contending team.

 

The downside of Price is obviously the salary hit by acquiring him with 2 years $64m attached. The Dodgers don’t seem too concerned about saving money these days, but he’d likely be their preferred pitcher to trade and could likely be had for free. Price also has a bit of unknown attached to him given his lack of a 2020 season and number of injuries starting to pile up in recent years.

 

Dustin May

May was actually speculated to possibly be the pitcher the Twins were receiving last winter when we got Maeda instead. Dubbed “Gingergaard”, May has a high octane fastball that regularly appears to bend the laws of physics.

 

 

Despite the wow factor, May hasn’t even managed a 21% K rate in the MLB thus far. His ceiling is still high and he’s a valuable pitcher even in his current form with a 2.98 ERA through about 90 innings.

 

May has always been a hyped Dodgers prospect they love, and any price to acquire him would be a hit to the Twins farm system if not the immediate Major League roster depending on what they want. An investment in a pitcher like May would likely require the Twins to be confident they could turn him into the face of their pitching rotation for the next 4-5 years.

 

Tony Gonsolin

Gonsolin was an unheralded star of the Dodgers rotation in 2020 pitching to a 2.31 ERA in 46 innings. Also a former top prospect of the Dodgers, he figures to be the last in line for a rotation spot in 2021.The Dodgers appeared to show their hand in the playoffs in 2021 that Gonsolin appears to be at the bottom of the totem pole for Dodgers starting pitchers.

 

 

The Dodgers just never seemed like they planned on using Gonsolin in the playoffs in 2021. For that reason, it’s fair to say Gonsolin is a tier below May in the Dodgers minds. That being said, Gonsolin is a young controllable starting pitcher and won’t be cheap. The Dodgers still haven’t re-signed Justin Turner for their infield, and it’s possible they’d come asking for Polanco or Arraez as a starting piece with plenty else included in the deal. Similar to May, The Twins would have to be confident in what they’re getting in Gonsolin to pull the trigger on this one. He’s nasty though.

 

 

Unlike some trade options available these days, the Dodger options will all cost a fair bit in one way or another. That being said, it would likely be worth the Twins at least checking in. Which Dodgers starter do you think would be the best fit in Minnesota?

 

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[Andrew Bryzgornia]

I feel May is unavailable unless the Twins instantly offered a collection of their top prospects. His stuff is off the charts and I don't think the Dodgers would be quick to part with him. 

 

Out of the three mentioned, Price seems the most likely simply due to his contract. If Falvey/Levine can convince Jim Pohlad to eat most of the contract, Price could be acquired with a minimal hit to the farm system. 

[Shaitan]

Based on the Maeda trade and the failed Dozier negotiations a few years ago, I think they'll ask a lot. Not saying no to any of these ideas (it's a similar scenario to how we got Maeda), but I think it will cost a lot.

 

*Other than Price, who they'll probably sell. And I'm intrigued how he'd do in a small market environment. He's performed everywhere, but doesn't seem to love the Boston/LA media spotlight.

[Seth Stohs]

With Price and Bauer likely just there for the year, and Gonsolin and May having options, I don't think those two would be available. Maybe Price, and I don't think he would cost much even if the Dodgers ate a lot of the contract.

 

If nothing else, it's worth the phone call. 

[specialiststeve]

Worth a call but likely the price one way or another will be too high... 

[IndianaTwin]

 

With Price and Bauer likely just there for the year, and Gonsolin and May having options, I don't think those two would be available. Maybe Price, and I don't think he would cost much even if the Dodgers ate a lot of the contract.

 

If nothing else, it's worth the phone call. 

 

With $40MM on the line for the second year, it's hard to imagine Bauer opting out after one year. But I agree that Gonsolin and May would be incredibly expensive. BaseballTradeSimulator.com suggests that it would take either Kirilloff or Lewis plus someone like Sabato or Celestino to get May. To get Gonsolin would require only Duran or Balazovic plus Sabato or Celestino. 

 

But Price could be interesting, depending on how much cash LA adds. To the OP, from what I understand, Boston is already is covering $32M of his remaining salary, leaving only $32M for the Dodgers or his new team. The same simulator says that Enlow should get Price and $15M of the remaining salary.

 

I think I'd do Enlow for two years of Price at $8.5M per year. The issue is that I'm not sure that's enough salary relief to be worth it for the Dodgers.   

 

 

[Brandon]

If the Dodgers use this as an opportunity to buy prospects, I bet both teams can find common ground to make a deal work.

[Otwins]

If the Dodgers would trade Price and send the money from Boston what would that save the Dodgers on Luxury tax.  Does the portion that Boston pays count on Boston's luxury tax total or LA? Does anyone know?  That is the value to the Dodgers.  If they resign say Justin Turner for 2 years 24 Million and they are in the 50% luxury tax bracket it would make sense for them to consider moving Price. If money is no object and it may not be with the Dodgers it would be hard to put a trade together. I doubt they would trade Gonsolin or May

[RaoulDuke]

 

With $40MM on the line for the second year, it's hard to imagine Bauer opting out after one year. But I agree that Gonsolin and May would be incredibly expensive. BaseballTradeSimulator.com suggests that it would take either Kirilloff or Lewis plus someone like Sabato or Celestino to get May. To get Gonsolin would require only Duran or Balazovic plus Sabato or Celestino. 

 

But Price could be interesting, depending on how much cash LA adds. To the OP, from what I understand, Boston is already is covering $32M of his remaining salary, leaving only $32M for the Dodgers or his new team. The same simulator says that Enlow should get Price and $15M of the remaining salary.

 

I think I'd do Enlow for two years of Price at $8.5M per year. The issue is that I'm not sure that's enough salary relief to be worth it for the Dodgers.   

I wouldn't want to give up Enlow for Price, they need the upside arms don't spend them if it isn't necessary.  Price is a no go imo why spend prospects for someone in their late career twilight days when you could just sign an Odo/ Paxton or go cheaper for Arrietta. 

 

I would be very interested in trading for May, he has some truly nasty stuff.  Royce/ Celestino/ Enlow?  Maybe less than Enlow?

 

Gonslin is pretty intriguing as well, great stuff albeit control issues.  If he could be had for 2 postion players not named Kiriloff or Lewis + an arm I think I would do it.

 

[twinstalker]

The Dodgers are light years ahead of other teams, trading-wise. Friedman is the guy who started the TB thing, after all. I would stay away from those guys, because the one you get is the one they want you to get.

 

Yes, I know, we got Maeda and he had a great 1/3 of a season, but their deal when committing to give Maeda to the Twins there was about getting Betts.

[Richard Swerdlick]

This will likely not work for the Twins. Too high an asking price or in Price's case, too much salary for a pitcher with too many recent health concerns. 

[dbminn]

I think Price would be available in a normal year but probably not in 2021. Covid-19 is still a roster concern - at least for the 1st part of the season - and pitchers had limited 2020 innings. With San Diego in the same division, I doubt they are looking to move a SP.

 

That being said, how about a big trade with the Dodgers? Just for fun... 

 

Twins get:

 

Tony Gonsolin - SP (I'm very high on him. 6 yrs control)

Gavin Lux - IF (Former top 3 prospect. Had some yips throwing from 2B last year)

 

Dodgers get:

 

Jorge Polanco - IF

Trevor Larnach - OF

Jhoan Duran - SP

 

The most serious MLB contender to LA are the SD Padres so I don't think they are looking for long-term prospects. The Dodgers will need immediate roster help to make a trade. Polanco would be a great fit for them, moving Taylor back to a super utility player. They are short in OF depth, with Luke Raley as their top AAA option. Larnach is a serious upgrade and is ready for MLB. Duran would be 2021 bullpen insurance with a chance to start in the future.

 

The Twins would get a SP with serious upside who has proven MLB success (86.2 IP/ 2.60 ERA / 3.02 FIP). Lux gives them 6 years of 2B/SS/LF and he's only 23 years old. He has struggled in limited AB but IMO, he will hit if given the chance. 

 

I'd do it.

[Doctor Gast]

Thanks Cody for digging into this I was thinking the same thing.

Of course I'd prefer May then Gonsolin. Their price will be high, Lewis is too valuable to consider and I'd want to keep Kiriloff, I wouldn't want to trade anyone who's under valued. But anyone else could be on the table.

LAD is motivated to trade because of glut of SPs and of the luxury tax (they haven't signed their 3B which will add to it). They love to have a glut of SP but this ridiculous. I'm sure they'd focus on dumping their Price. They'd probably pay anyone to take him. If the Twins are interested they could also ask for Chris Taylor. Like Maeda they are very motivated to trade. Love to get May or Gonsolin (FO needs to drive a hard bargain and not cave again) but I'd settle for Price.

This could be a great opportunity if FO could drive a hard bargain

[mikelink45]

Nice thought, but I think we have our starting rotation and cannot see the upside of trading prospects for an older pitcher like Price.   Price sat out last year and was 7 - 5 with a 4.28 era his last year with Boston and a 1.34 Whip.  Is it possible he is done?  Would he really be better than what we have?  I see Enlow as a tradeable prospect and probably Larnach too (where will he play) so that could be a trade deal, but then the Dodger lineup does not look like it is missing much either.

[Darius]

Getting May is the kind of move I could get behind.

 

He’s still a couple years from arbitration, already has 9 playoff appearances (including 2 in a World Series). He’s got nasty power stuff.

 

May is right now what we hope Duran will be in a couple years, but they’re the same age.

 

No thanks on Price, although that’s probably more in the historical Twins’ style. The Dodgers would have to pay me to take him. He’s old and expensive. He hasn’t pitched since 2019. The Sox are loaded with monster RH bats (Abreu, Moncada, Jiminez, Robert, Vaughn, even Anderson and Madrigal).

 

Besides, would he even want to come end his career on a team that hasn’t been beyond the Divisional series, basically this century (what was it, 2001 or 2)?

[saviking]

 

I think Price would be available in a normal year but probably not in 2021. Covid-19 is still a roster concern - at least for the 1st part of the season - and pitchers had limited 2020 innings. With San Diego in the same division, I doubt they are looking to move a SP.

 

That being said, how about a big trade with the Dodgers? Just for fun... 

 

Twins get:

 

Tony Gonsolin - SP (I'm very high on him. 6 yrs control)

Gavin Lux - IF (Former top 3 prospect. Had some yips throwing from 2B last year)

 

Dodgers get:

 

Jorge Polanco - IF

Trevor Larnach - OF

Jhoan Duran - SP

 

The most serious MLB contender to LA are the SD Padres so I don't think they are looking for long-term prospects. The Dodgers will need immediate roster help to make a trade. Polanco would be a great fit for them, moving Taylor back to a super utility player. They are short in OF depth, with Luke Raley as their top AAA option. Larnach is a serious upgrade and is ready for MLB. Duran would be 2021 bullpen insurance with a chance to start in the future.

 

The Twins would get a SP with serious upside who has proven MLB success (86.2 IP/ 2.60 ERA / 3.02 FIP). Lux gives them 6 years of 2B/SS/LF and he's only 23 years old. He has struggled in limited AB but IMO, he will hit if given the chance. 

 

I'd do it.

 

[saviking]

Yes, he is the only one that makes sense due to his low salary and years of control. I like your trade offer and would be very open to even moving Sano for him as well as a million other combinations. Only players that should be untouchable are Kirilloff, Lewis and Balazovic ...

[TopGunn#22]

dbminn, I like your trade.  I just don't think the Dodgers would do it.  Lux was at times the #1 prospect in all of baseball.  He still has tremendous upside.  I think he's the Dodgers starting 2B-man in 2021.  Would you rather have Polanco or Lux ?

(I'd take  Luz).

 

I'd hate to part with Larnach but with Kiriloff  (and that Kepler will probably be in RF for several more years) it comes down to Larnach and a prospect in Duran for a proven Major League SP in Gonsolin (I'd ask for May and settle for Gonsolin if need be).

The Dodgers have so much.  Surely they could part with some of it.     

[Twodogs]

With the amount of FA's still available, Walker, Paxton, etc.... I don't really see any point in trading away prospects to help the Dodgers keep their young guys like May and Gonsolin from getting buried and lost in their system. That's really not our problem. Price is no better than some of the guys still available on the market.

[mike8791]

I've brought up this possibility of trading for one of the displaced young Dodger hurlers on David Young's latest Notebook article.  I would totally be against any inquiry of Price for the simple reason there are available FA veteran starters who would be much cheaper, but probably at similar performance levels as the fading Price.

 

But the Dodgers are now awash in young, promising pitchers(only one or two of whom will make the starting five):

 

Dustin May(23)

Julio Urias(24)

Tony Gonsolin(27)

 

As many have pointed out, May would be the hardest to pry away, Urias and Gonsolin seem to have almost equal ceilings, based on limited major league performance.  For the Twins, I'd be more interested in Urias because he's a lefty, he'll be 24 in 2021, and so far has performed well in an admittedly SSS.  He is exactly the sort of young pitcher the Twins should be targeting this offseason, especially with the ages of Pineda and Happ, and the looming free agency of Berrios.

 

Yes, the Dodgers are notoriously hard to deal with and yet, the Twins pulled off a trade for Maeda last year - conceivably one of the biggest pickups in Twins' recent history.  Maeda was considered excess once Price was acquired; hence, he was made available for a high, but unproven prospect in Graterol.  

 

Now, the situation could be identical with the Bauer signing.  Its an intriguing possibility, one that any agressive FO should be very seriously exploring.  The big question is:  what would it take to get him?  Looking at the Dodger lineup, there are hardly any glaring weaknesses, but one might look at 3B, where Turner is a FA, for starters.  Not sure what they'd want from the Twins but now we have an "extra" IF in either Polanco or Arraez, either of whom could play 3B.  Would the Dodgers be interested in a big thumper like Sano whose position the Twins can replace fairly easily.  Or, might it take a package headlined by Lewis or Larnach,  Balazovic or Duran or Enlow?

 

The chances for this risk-averse FO to swing such a deal are pretty low.  Coupled with the Dodger's desire to shed Price's salary and the odds drop even further.  But despite such odds, wouldn't it be nice to see the Twins FO swing for the fences for once?

[twinfan]

I'd trade Polanco and Lewis and maybe one other prospect for Gonsolin and Lux in a heartbeat. I wouldn't touch Price who has a bad history in the post-season and costs way too much. The Dodgers are no longer high on May but his lack of strikeouts with his stuff has to be a concern. Throw him in and we'll throw in another prospect (but not Kiriloff or Laurich).

[twinkiesfan11]

If the Darvish, Snell, Lindor, Arrenado trades are any indication of what it would take to acquire a high salary player in this uncertain, reduced revenue market I’d definitely be calling on Price. I can’t imagine it would take anyone in the top 20 prospects to acquire and could probably get the Dodgers to eat some salary as well.

[Dantes929]

Muncy was pretty lousy in 2021 and if Turner doesn't resign then a Polanco, Sano package might be enough to get Gonsolin or May.    A lot depends on Turner.   Had a great year but is 36 years old.   Hernandez wasn't any great shakes at 2nd either.   Polanco and Sano could have great value to the Dodgers.

[Trov]

 

With Price and Bauer likely just there for the year, and Gonsolin and May having options, I don't think those two would be available. Maybe Price, and I don't think he would cost much even if the Dodgers ate a lot of the contract.

 

If nothing else, it's worth the phone call. 

Do you really think Bauer opts out after first season?  You think he will leave 45 mil, expecting more?  I mean maybe he could get more but that may be a hell of a gamble.  I think he only opts out after year 2 of the deal, when he would be set to make only 17 mil. 

[denarded]

No thanks. All options are either too expensive or prospect depleting. I like our starting staff. Is it World Series caliber? No. Is the team built to win one game in ALDS? Yes. We could have Bauer and guarantee a win (maybe) but cripple the next 3 years. I like the organization focusing forward. We'll get there

[iowaguychris]

I'd take Price should the Dodgers be willing to pick up most of his salary - why not?

[nicksaviking]

If the Dodgers eat some salary and don't ask for much in return, I'd take Price. He was a guy who definitely needed a year off. 

 

My first thought was that Price may prefer to stay with the world champs, but my second thought was that if the Dodgers let it be known that the vet is getting bumped from the rotation for the young guys, well that worked pretty well for the Twins last year.

[dex8425]

 

The Dodgers are light years ahead of other teams, trading-wise. Friedman is the guy who started the TB thing, after all. I would stay away from those guys, because the one you get is the one they want you to get.

 

Yes, I know, we got Maeda and he had a great 1/3 of a season, but their deal when committing to give Maeda to the Twins there was about getting Betts.

Agreed. And Betts probably should have won the MVP last year, so that has worked out well so far.