Using PECOTA to Identify 4 Rotation Trade Targets

[Jamie Cameron]

Baseball Prospectus released its PECOTA projections this week. Here are four starting pitchers who look particularly attractive as Twins trade targets based on those projections.One of the traps I typically fall into when analyzing the Twins roster is seeing the offseason as a fixed and finite unit, as opposed to a continuum on which the trade deadline also sits.

 

The Twins now sit at 42.0 projected fWAR after the Nelson Cruz and Alex Colome deals, good for fourth in baseball behind the Dodgers, Yankees, and Padres. This confirms what we all know, the Twins are a playoff team and should be in the mix in the postseason. The front office has messaged building a sustainable winner, and with payroll running low, it seems likely that high impact additions are done for the offseason.

 

One avenue for improvement the Twins haven’t significantly tapped in Derrick Falvey’s tenure is making a big move at the trade deadline. Looking at the current roster, the avenue that seems most likely for them to pursue is a trade for a front end starting pitcher, to raise their pitching ceiling in the playoffs.

 

Parameters for Trades

I used PECOTA (Baseball Reference’s projection system) to examine four starters the Twins could target projecting forwards to the deadline. In order to do this, I stuck to a few key parameters:

• The pitcher needs to be from a relatively poor team, unlikely to be in playoff contention.
• I didn’t include anyone with an astronomical salary, as we know the Twins like to maintain financial flexibility.
• I typically targeted younger starters with multiple years of control, a scenario which would render the Twins more likely to part with a significant prospect haul.
• High ceiling -- I targeted starters projected to be as good or better than Jose Berrios in 2021 -- meaning they could potentially start game two of a playoff series.

Notes: I left out two popular, high quality names -- Luis Castillo, and Brandon Woodruff. Castillo would be an incredibly expensive pickup for the Twins based on reports this winter, and the Brewers should still be in the hunt in the NL Central, making it unlikely they trade their best starter in Woodruff. We’ll move from worst to best options, according to PECOTA.

 

DRA- is BP’s encompassing pitching rate stat. Average is 100, lower is better.

WARP is Wins above replacement player (BP version of WAR)

 

German Marquez

Key projected stats: 4.01 ERA, 8.84 SO/9, DRA - 90, WARP 2.21.

Contract average: $8.6 million over four years, UFA in 2025.

Marquez has long been a popular source of Twins fans trade speculation. The now 25 year old originally came to the Rockies in the Corey Dickerson trade with the Rays. In four full seasons with the Rockies, he’s put up an impressive 12.2 fWAR. Marquez features a four-pitch mix including a fastball which gets up to 95 mph, a strong curveball and slider, and a changeup he doesn't use a whole lot. Marquez will be one of the few exciting players in a Rockies team ‘not in a rebuild’ according to GM Jeff Bridich. Marquez is under team control for a very reasonable price through the end of the 2024 season, so would likely cost significant prospect capital. Per PECOTA, his best comparables are Luis Severino, Lucas Giolito, and Jose Berrios.

 

Sonny Gray

Key projected stats: 4.03 ERA, 10.5 SO/9, DRA - 89, WARP 2.24.

Contract average: $10.1 million average over three years, UFA in 2024.

Gray is another popular trade candidate on Twins twitter after an excellent 2020 with the Reds. In his last two seasons with Cincinnatti, he’s been dominant, accruing 5.9 fWAR. Gray has a similar pitch-mix to Marquez, featuring a four-seam fastball, exceptional curveball, slider, and a rarely used changeup. Gray has done an exceptional job limiting hard contact in his last two seasons, and his excellent fastball and curveball spin rates should appeal to the Twins. Gray seems expensive currently, and is another starter with an affordable deal, but his price may drop if the Reds are out of contention at the deadline. Gray’s best comparables are Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, and Zack Wheeler

 

Kyle Hendricks

Key projected stats: 3.68 ERA, 7.68 SO/9, DRA- 87, WARP 2.55.

Contract average: $13.8 average over three years, UFA in 2024.

Perennially underrated by projection systems, Hendricks is my favorite under the radar Twins trade target for 2021. In the last six seasons with the Cubs, Hendricks has put up 20.8 fWAR with a fastball that is in the third percentile in the league for velocity and first for spin rate. Hendricks control and command are incredible, he managed a 2.5% BB% in 2020 and his curve is exceptional. Hendriks makes good not great SP money over the next few years. His consistent excellence, the amount he is typically underrated, the general lack of effort by the Cubs organization make him an excellent midseason target for the Twins. Hendricks best comparables are David Price, Tom Seaver, and James Shields.

 

Zac Gallen

Key projected stats: 3.32 ERA, 10.25 SO/9, DRA- 81, WARP 2.79.

Contract: $575,000 base salary (pre-arbitration), UFA in 2026.

Gallen is different from the rest of the trade targets as he only has 150ish MLB innings under his belt. Gallen was drafted by the Cardinals before being traded to Miami (along with Sandy Alcantara) for Marcel Ozuna. He was then traded to the Diamondback for Jazz Chishom in 2019. Since debuting in the majors with Arizona, he’s been excellent, with his fastball, cutter, changeup, curve mix limiting hard contact and leading to a good strikeout rate, with good command and control to boot. Gallen would likely be an expensive acquisition as he is pre-arbitration and under team control through 2025. Gallen’s best comparables are Jose Berrios, Jack Flaherty, and Jake Odorizzi.

 

One untapped resource for the Twins remains adding significantly at the deadline. Perhaps 2021 will be the year they push more chips to the middle of the table in July. Which of these four options are most appealing to you as a higher end pitching addition? Which other candidates are you interested in? Leave your thoughts in the comments below.

 

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[tony&rodney]

Perhaps these pitchers may be available and I'm down for any of the four, but what is the cost? Will they be available? I'm interested in what people think is a trade each of these clubs will look at and say "ok".

[nicksaviking]

I just struggle to get behind Hendricks. He's a soft-tosser and doesn't strike anyone out because he primarily uses that sinker.

 

Sonny Gray used to be on my no-no list but he backs up his sinker with a strong strikeout rate, so I can get behind him.

[prouster]

Galen would be great, but I think they missed their bite at the apple when Arizona traded for him.

[Doctor Gast]

I like your article and rational. FO needs to more involved in the trading market for one reason is to have control over the 40 man roster so we don't lose valuable prospects through Rule 5. And I think that's where real value is at.

I've been interested in all 4 of your selections plus Castillo. All of them are on my radar.

I'd rate them

1. Castillo

2. Gallen

3. Marquez

4. Gray

5. Hendrix

Based on pretty much by your prerequisites. Trade wise it'll be costly for any one of them but will be well worth the cost if done right.

I think even if these teams are not competitive any more they'll still resist trading them away. Gray or Hendrix being most likely to be traded

[Seansy]

Assuming Kirilloff is our LF longterm I would say building a package around Larnach for any one of these pitchers would be a great idea.

 

Love Larnach but given our surplus of corner OF bats he makes the most sense as a trade chip.

[TopGunn#22]

Agree Seansy, especially if Kepler is going to be a Twin for the next 5-years.  

Plus, there are other, very young, toolsy OF'ers in the pipeline.

Castillo is clearly the best, I might put Marquez ahead of Gallon on talent, but Gallon has the lower salary commitment and is also very good.  Larnach will be a pretty good player, but between now and next off season will his value go UP or DOWN ??

Adding good young pitching is NEVER a bad move.

[nicksaviking]

I’m sure the Twins corner bats will be attractive, but when trading away quality MLB pitching, the seller tends to want to prioritize quality prospect pitching. It would probably be tough for the Twins to snag one of these guys without including Balazovic or Duran, so I think realistically that’s where you have to start with the hypothetical trade packages.

[mike8791]

Some great names to drool over, but they are just a pipe dream with this FO.  As mentioned by Prouster, Twins had excellent chance for picking up Gallen cheaply, but passed.  This offseason, they could have actively pursued Castillo/Gray but obviously deemed the price in prospects too high.  It's just guesswork, but trading Lewis or Larnach + one of out top 2 or 3 pitching prospects + a top 20 prospect could have likely gotten at least Gray.  The Reds are desperate for a SS; after signing Simmons, why wasn't Polanco offered up as key to a trade package with Reds?  Isn't the addition of a potential #1 or #2 starter more impactful in breaking the dreadful playoff streak than a utility IF?  Since Cincy wanted to dump salary as part of any deal, we could also have probably picked up Castellanos in any trade for Gray/Castillo.

 

Falvine's risk-taking chops in 4 years have been close to zero.  The only exception would be the Maeda trade where they gave up a top prospect for him.  Kudos of course, but if you can pick up a potential top starter for a prospect already designated as bullpen material, it's practically a no-brainer, even for this FO.  They are much more adept at salary dumps - an activity this organization has excelled in for years.

 

There are some organizations that can recognize when their team has a shot at WS contention and go all in.  Living in Chicago, I can point to the Cubs who invested heavily in guys like Lester to push them over the top.  More recently, we have the Sox whose 85-year old owner is determined to see another championship banner before he's gone.  This is why the Sox saw a chance to upgrade their bullpen by jettisoning an adequate closer in Colome for a best-in-the-game Hendricks.  Not saying that'll give the southsiders a WS but they are going all in this year and have elevated their odds to accomplish that goal.

 

Has anyone ever heard of JP expressing such ambition?  Ownership seemingly goes along with their baseball leadership, but is it any surprise the guys they hired(Ryan, Falvey) are as risk averse as ownership?  If you're content to have a competitive team year after year, than you probably like such caution.  But if you yearn for a championship, incrementalism will never get you there.  Compare MacPhails' moves in "87 and '91 to current management.  Sure, there was some luck involved, especially in '87, but Andy's additions in the offseason arguably made the difference for both teams.  Can anyone say this about Falvey?