2021 Twins PECOTA Projections: 5 Big Takeaways

[Matthew Trueblood]

On Monday, Baseball Prospectus began releasing their PECOTA projections for 2021. There are a ton of interesting items within them, for Twins fans. Here are five of the most important.The Twins Have Excellent, Enviable Catching Depth

 

We’ve talked all winter about Mitch Garver’s 2020, but broadly speaking, it’s easy to dismiss the lost season a fluke. Garver suffered an ill-timed injury in a surreal and shortened campaign. Mathematical models don’t dismiss anything, exactly, but PECOTA agrees with most Twins fans: Garver’s 2019 numbers come much closer to accurately describing him than his 2020 ones do. He’s projected to post a 114 DRC+ (BP’s proprietary, holistic rate stat for offensive value, where 100 is average and higher is better) in 2021.

 

Garver only gets 304 plate appearances in PECOTA’s projections, though, because BP’s depth charts estimate a very even share of catching duties between Garver and Ryan Jeffers. Last month, Jeffers landed just outside the Top 101 Prospects list published by BP, but PECOTA might have nudged him back onto the list. In the same 304 trips to the plate, it projects a 109 DRC+ for Jeffers. Most teams would love to have a full-time starting backstop who hits that well. The Twins have two, who can split the job and stay fresher and healthier. PECOTA also thinks Willians Astudillo can be a roughly average hitter, though whether the Twins see him as a legitimate option behind the plate, anymore, is an open question.

 

Alex Kirilloff, Brent Rooker, and Trevor Larnach Get Pessimistic Projections

 

Before you freak out, know that there are some important caveats coming in a moment. However, it’s important to note that PECOTA is not excited about the short-term prospects of any of the team’s three prospective rookie left fielders, including Kirilloff, whom fans have penciled in as the primary left fielder ever since Eddie Rosario was non-tendered.

 

The system has considered Kirilloff and Larnach as essentially identical for a couple of years now, but where it inspired cautious optimism a year ago, it offers no such immediate hope this time. Kirilloff’s projected DRC+ is 93, and Larnach’s is 91. Neither is in as much trouble, according to the system, as Rooker, whose projected 83 DRC+ is the worst among Twins players who figure to get meaningful playing time.

 

Let’s dig into the caveats, though. For one thing, the fact that there were no minor leagues in 2020 leaves the system guessing, in some senses. It’s more bearish on rookies, in general, than it has traditionally been. There might be good reasons for that; we don’t know how the long disruption and the strange developmental environment of the alternate sites will affect players in this position. However, on balance, the system probably deflated the projections of those players more than their performance is likely to warrant.

 

More importantly, there are ways the Twins can work around this problem, even if it turns out to be real. Jake Cave’s projection is not pretty, but LaMonte Wade’s is, with a 105 DRC+ and .349 projected on-base percentage. Wade playing fairly regularly in left field would not be a terrible outcome for this team. As we know, too, after the Andrelton Simmons signing, Luis Arraez might be available to play some left field.

 

Kenta Maeda is No One-Hit Wonder

 

The PECOTA projection for the Twins’ ace is downright gaudy. Though the system forecasts that he’ll throw just 156 innings (mostly the product of the BP team’s allotment of playing time on the depth chart and on the global concerns about innings totals in the season after such a shortened one), it values him at 4.5 Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP). His projected ERA is 2.53, and his 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings pitched would easily pace the Twins’ starters. His most comparable players, according to PECOTA, include Carlos Carrasco, Jacob deGrom, and Corey Kluber. Contending for the Cy Young Award again seems well within Maeda’s reach.

 

The Middle of the Rotation Should Be Stable and Strong

 

Beyond Maeda, there’s no thrilling, jump-off-the-page individual projection on the Twins’ pitching staff, but the projections still elucidate the solidity of the next three hurlers in the team’s rotation. Baseball Prospectus uses DRA- to value pitchers on a rate basis. It’s a statistic scaled to 100, where lower is better. José Berríos projects to post a 91 DRA-. Michael Pineda owns a projected 97. J.A. Happ is pegged for 100. That means that, even if Minnesota doesn’t sign any more starters, and even if none of these guys outpace their projections at all, Rocco Baldelli will have an average or better starter for four of every five games.

 

PECOTA Still Believes in Miguel Sanó

 

Given the way pandemicball affected most hitters, and the fact that Sanó was sidelined by COVID-19 at a crucial point during the preparation phase for the truncated season, there were plenty of reasons not to worry overmuch about his lousy 2020. Still, it was a rough season. Sanó hit just .204/.278/.478, good for a 92 DRC+ that made him a sub-replacement level first baseman.

 

PECOTA is undaunted. It does project him for a dizzying 235 strikeouts in 574 trips to the plate, but it also thinks Sanó will hit 31 home runs, walk 67 times, hit .355 on balls in play (thanks to his prodigious ability to hit the ball hard) and post a 123 DRC+. Since it also projects him to be a good defender at first base, that translates to 3.6 WARP. If he produces that much value, Sanó will push the Twins toward an AL Central title in 2021, rather than away from it.

 

Click here to view the article

[MNT1996]

PECOTA still believing in Sano and giving a higher projected DPC+ to Wade compared to Kirilloff and Larnach tells me everything I need to know about these projections. I'm going to completely disregard them.

[Seansy]

I'm not concerned about the rookie projections given how weird last year was and amazes me how many people want to write off Sano after a couple bad stretches coming off injury and COVID in 2020 after he was sensational in 2019.

Sano had a .923 OPS in 2019 DESPITE having a brutal 3-39 stretch while changing his mechanics.

He could easily have a 1.000 if he's healthy all year imo.

PECOTA still believing in Sano and giving a higher projected DPC+ to Wade compared to Kirilloff and Larnach tells me everything I need to know about these projections. I'm going to completely disregard them.

 

[SoCalTwinsfan]

Maybe Sano is the hitters equivalent of Bret Saberhagen. He's good every other year. His best OPS+ in an even year is 108. His worst OPS+ in an odd year is 126. Hopefully, he has a much more normal offseason and start to the year, plus he doesn't have to worry about a position switch.

[Dodecahedron]

 

PECOTA still believing in Sano and giving a higher projected DPC+ to Wade compared to Kirilloff and Larnach tells me everything I need to know about these projections. I'm going to completely disregard them.

 

I tried a few times to figure out PECOTA. It always seems way off. Heck, it seems almost random with some players.

There's a reason no one uses it. If it works at all, it's incredibly complicated. While the rest of the baseball world searches in vain for an uberstat, Baseball Prospectus settled on a bizarrostat.

[mikelink45]

While I agree that PECOTA does not have any meaning for me, it is a fun conversation starter.  Thanks for posting.  

 

One thing I will say for Pecota - if Sano strikes out at the rate they project I will be one of his biggest critics again.  I still do not see Ks as neutral - they are a big negative for me when they come at his rate. 

[nicksaviking]

PECOTA is fun, and I really like using math as a predictor.

 

But PECOTA is almost always Bearish on the minor leagures. I don't understand it enough to know how or why, and it's understandable that the guys with the least amount of data would get the uber conservative estimates, but if teams based their rosters off of what PECOTA suggests the young guys will do, there would be about 4 rookies on MLB rosters each year.