The Desired Path Is Clear for the Twins

[Greglw3]

 

Major League Ready hit the nail on the head with his comment about budget.

The Twins haven't really said anything about what it is.

All any of us is doing is projecting what we think is a reasonable estimate.

For example:  If Cruz was to be signed for one year at $10 million with another $3-$4 million in incentives they very well COULD afford someone like Rosenthal to be their closer.

Rosenthal would give them a very good overall bullpen.

Rogers & Duffy have the 7th & 8th.   Rosenthal the 9th.  Rogers and Duffey can close if need be.

But I agree that one more THUMPER is needed in that lineup and even if it's Cruz

when does the fall off begin and at his age he will spend at least 2 stints on the IL and will also need regular rest.  

Is Ozuna at 4-5 years and $20 million per year a better investment than one-year of Cruz?

If Cruz were to hit his Performance Bonus of the additional $3-$4 million than Cruz at one-year $14 million is a better investment than the Ozuna option.

But Ozuna is 10-years younger and is undeniably a VERY GOOD hitter.  Hitting #3 or #4 in the Twins lineup he would look very good.  And he can play a little LF if they need.

But as Major League Ready said:  "What actually IS the budget" ???

I thought I heard or read Jim Pohlad saying that the losses from last year won’t effect the payroll this year. And he’s been willing to stretch when Falvey-Levine come to him with a player they want to add. I actually think he would go as high as $150 million for the right players. For the first time in my Twins fanship going back to ’64, the owner is not an impediment. I’ve seen cheap and I’ve seen cheap again from Twin’s owners but I don’t think Jim Pohlad is anywhere remotely where the other two gents were. Calvin was the cheapest of the cheap when he had great players.

 

[Major League Ready]

 

I thought I heard or read Jim Pohlad saying that the losses from last year won’t effect the payroll this year. And he’s been willing to stretch when Falvey-Levine come to him with a player they want to add. I actually think he would go as high as $150 million for the right players. For the first time in my Twins fanship going back to ’64, the owner is not an impediment. I’ve seen cheap and I’ve seen cheap again from Twin’s owners but I don’t think Jim Pohlad is anywhere remotely where the other two gents were. Calvin was the cheapest of the cheap when he had great players.

 

This statement does not mean the budget will go back to 2020 levels. It simply means they will set there budget as they would in any other year. It means they will set the budget based on 2021 projected revenue without an additional reduction to off-set 2020 losses. Therefore, the budget for players would be set based on some or all of the expected revenue loss being deducted from the operating budget.

 

Perhaps its easier to understand if you personalize it. If your income goes down substantially in 2021, will you spend $10K more than your normal budget?

[tony&rodney]

".... Perhaps its easier to understand if you personalize it. If your income goes down substantially in 2021, will you spend $10K more than your normal budget?" by mlr

 

Yes. My 10-30k v. Pohlad's 10-30 million, same same and both of us will blow by our budgets when we feel it is prudent to do so. Keep an eye on the future because you took care of the past to live in the now.

But should he? I don't know, that's his call. But he can if he wants to and so can I. We planned all along the way.

 

The path is fraught with danger, injuries and poor performance in this case (baseball). Cruz seems like a friendly gamble. I wouldn't sign Marcell Ozuno for $12 million, but I would pay Cruz $14 million. It's just personal preference and whim. Win some and lose some and hope the Twins win in 2021.

[DocBauer]

Going to add a thought here.

 

Now, I believe Nellie wants to come back and I believe the Twins want him back. While I believe the FO knows they have a couple needs and wants, I believe they will push payroll to some degree to make those additions and still bring Cruz back. He is a short game addition, but an important one for the lineup. And I'm going to repeat a post I made in another forum section, but even with something like a 10-15% reduction in overall performance in the coming season, his bat would prove valuable to the lineup. IMO, he's a short game because all 3 of Kirilloff, Rooker and Larnach will be getting their feet wet and contributing to different degrees while preparing for 2022 and beyond.

 

But if it doesn't happen, for whatever reason, then despite a call to add additional pitching, one thing I would really hope the Twins would do is add another infield option. And there are some guys out there that I really think could help. Why go this direction? Well, forgoing to obvious depth factor in case of injury, it would provide more options for Arraez and even Donaldson to remain in the lineup while taking half days off.

 

Think about a couple $M for bats like Gyorko, Cabrera or Schoop to play a couple positions and provide depth and production. What about Frazier or Miller? Unless I missed a signing somewhere, i think all of these guys are free. And all of them have some versatility and offensive potential to fill in at spots in the field. All should come relatively cheap, and not hinder adding another arm or two.

 

While not dismissing Cruz in any way at this point...and he could sign quickly so who knows for sure...just think about this player roster:

 

C: Garver/Jeffers

INF: Sano, Polanco, Simmons, Donaldson, Arraez, and player X

OF: Kepler, Buxton, Kiriloff, Wade and Rooker.

 

Tremendous daily lineup versatility across the OF and INF with DH being filled by various combinations. It allows for everyone to get regular time in the field and at the plate while also allowing your "top 9-10" to be in the batting order most days.

 

This also further allows Arraez, your new 10th man, even greater opportunity to be in the lineup DAILY. And let's face it, however Rocco wants to build his BO, isn't it time Arraez becomes the leadoff man and slide Kepler down to a more power/RBI slot?

 

I'll still be surprised if Cruz isn't brought back. But if not, and additional $ is spent on pitching, I really hope a couple $M would be spent on another INF addition to increase depth and versatility options.

[Finlander]

I wonder what kind of pitches Cruz would see without dangerous lefty Rosario hitting behind him. The projected batting lineup has to be taken into account to fairly assess what Cruz could add to it. Simmons is a back half type of hitter and won't scare anyone. Any rookies are unproven. I am guessing the Twins are carefully considering what to do about the impact of losing their #3 and #4 hitters in the lineup, when nobody else seems obviously ready to replace them. As much as pitching is needed (and they will add more), losing the number 3 and 4 hitters, the proven clutch rbi guys, is worrisome. For that reason alone, I do think Cruz returns. He thrived with a proven hitter behind him in the order, not a rookie. If anything, Cruz would be great protection for a rookie like Kiriloff. There may be a value adjustment for a hitter as being the "protection" rather than the "protected". It will be interesting to see how the projected hitting lineup develops.

[ashbury]

I wonder what kind of pitches Cruz would see without dangerous lefty Rosario hitting behind him.

Probably no worse than some less-capable hitter we use in place of him.

 

^{_{/ I certainly hold open the possibility that 2021 Cruz himself will be less-capable than 2019-20 Cruz.}}

 

[Twodogs]

What could they get Taijuan Walker for? How much will he demand at this point in time?