The Desired Path Is Clear for the Twins

[Nash Walker]

With financial flexibility and a familiar, beloved face still available, the Twins’ offseason is ready for its finishing touches.The Twins didn’t trade for Blake Snell. Or Yu Darvish. Or Joe Musgrove. They didn’t shock the world and sign George Springer. Or DJ LeMahieu. They stayed quiet for months and months, waiting for the market to come to them. Two lower-wattage pitching pickups in Hansel Robles and J.A. Happ provide ample depth, and maybe even some upside, for a combined $10 million. Snatching up Andrelton Simmons to double their free-agent spending also improves the club, perhaps significantly.

 

The Twins will have a different look and feel in 2021. Simmons at short, Jorge Polanco at second and Luis Arraez in the Marwin González role is sure to fascinate. For now though, this team is an unfinished product. The White Sox are widely seen as the team to beat in the A.L. Central in 2021. Huge seasons from Eloy Jiménez and Tim Anderson in 2020 sparked even more excitement around the South Siders. The addition of Lance Lynn to a rotation with Lucas Giolito and Dallas Keuchel is a bit scary. The bullpen, now fronted by former Twin Liam Hendriks, will breath fire. Fangraphs’ Dan Szymborski projects a 91-win tie for first, assuming these are the rosters on opening day.

 

But they aren’t. The Twins have, even in a conservative estimate, about $12-15 million left to spend. Coincidence? Not at all. The Twins want their DH back. Cruz wants to be back. It’s a matter of time, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.

 

 

Nightengale also tweeted that the White Sox have “little room” to operate financially after signing Liam Hendriks for $54 million. If that’s the case, the Twins will catapault as slight to moderate favorites after the re-addition of Cruz and another bullpen arm. Cruz has little incentive to sign soon with the National League DH rule still in negotiation. He’s working out like a madman at his own home gym, crushing baseballs into nets and breeding his son, Nelson Cruz Jr., to do the same. He’s preparing to see his name in the heart of Baldelli’s lineup for the third straight season.

 

There are cons to bringing him home. While it seems like Cruz will never stop hitting, he will. His bat and or body will slow down. Whether that’s in 2021 or beyond is the key question. If it takes matching a two-year deal, you may see the Twins pivot. It’s unlikely, though, that the 40-year-old Cruz will command that type of commitment, especially without DHs in the National League. With the White Sox out, his list of suitors is incredibly limited in the A.L. The Twins are at a point, with Josh Donaldson in year two of his deal, to maximize the now. The rotation is in fine position, the defense will be nasty (good nasty) and the bullpen has considerable upside. The payroll is set up for one last ride with the great Nelson Cruz. The stars seem to be aligning.

 

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[bobs]

"The Twins didn’t trade for Blake Snell. Or Yu Darvish. Or Joe Musgrove....or Sonny Gray.  Or Luis Castillo...."

[specialiststeve]

Would really love Cruz back for one more year and it may happen but.... do believe that the NL will be getting the DH... just makes to much sense... then... it is open season and is less than 50/50 chance. We can hope. 

 

More importantly we need to add one more good/great reliever. Should be able to as there are still many options. 

 

And still plenty of time to add ... trade.. etc... 

 

Very excited to see the 21' version.. should be good!

[TopGunn#22]

I wish there was a way for the Twins to sign Cruz and still add Trevor Rosenthal but I don't know if it can be done.

I LOVE Nellie Cruz.  In his two seasons,  few Twins have been more fun to watch hit.

But his production is going to fall off a cliff sometime.

It could be next year.

It could be THIS year.

And  we have so many young hitters that could use AB's----is a significant investment in Cruz wise ??

If I could count on Cruz influencing Sano to hit and produce like he did in 2019 it would be worth it.

But I'm just not that sold on Sano anymore.  I have serious doubts Sano ever has another year like 2019.

But that's part of the "wishful thinking" of bring Nellie back.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins need a hitter. The youngsters are there and Garver could return, but the loss of both Rosario and Cruz would be a difficult hill to climb. There is talent and a successful run in '21 will need all of Garver, Sano, Polanco, Donaldson, Buxton, and Kepler producing at peak form while Jeffers and Arraez repeat their success.

I think the AL Central will be much improved this year.

So, yes, the team could use Nelson Cruz to return and pick up his team again.

[puckstopper1]

Getting Cruz back in the fold is a no-brainer IMO if the price is right.

 

I also feel like the Twins need to add a another solid late-inning arm to the pen after losing Clippard, Wisler, May and Romo, and only adding Robles, in order to be able to compete with the ChiSox.

[Major League Ready]

 

With financial flexibility and a familiar, beloved face still available, the Twins’ offseason is ready for its finishing touches.The Twins didn’t trade for Blake Snell. Or Yu Darvish. Or Joe Musgrove. They didn’t shock the world and sign George Springer. Or DJ LeMahieu. They stayed quiet for months and months, waiting for the market to come to them. Two lower-wattage pitching pickups in Hansel Robles and J.A. Happ provide ample depth, and maybe even some upside, for a combined $10 million. Snatching up Andrelton Simmons to double their free-agent spending also improves the club, perhaps significantly.


But they aren’t. The Twins have, even in a conservative estimate, about $12-15 million left to spend. Coincidence? Not at all. The Twins want their DH back. Cruz wants to be back. It’s a matter of time, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.
 

 

 

Have the Twins made any statements about budget? I keep seeing all of the estimates and have to wonder how they are derived. Revenue is the primary determinant in establishing an operating budget for any organization as well as for all of us unless you have a trust fund. Yet, I have not seen one single person support an estimate with anything other than conjecture. I still don't have much of a solid estimate of when fans will be vaccinated or when they will be allowed to attend.  

[mikelink45]

The Bomba squad had Rosario and Cruz in the center of the lineup.  Now we will have Simmons and ???    Yes I like to see the young bats in the lineup, but right now the lineup that we hope takes us to the playoffs is significantly less lethal than the one that produced 2 runs in the 2020 series (two games) and 7 runs in 3 games in 2019.  Let's hope the young players come through. 

[Major League Ready]

 

The Bomba squad had Rosario and Cruz in the center of the lineup.  Now we will have Simmons and ???    Yes I like to see the young bats in the lineup, but right now the lineup that we hope takes us to the playoffs is significantly less lethal than the one that produced 2 runs in the 2020 series (two games) and 7 runs in 3 games in 2019.  Let's hope the young players come through. 

 

I would bet Cruz is back but I do worry about father time finally catching up with him. Those who suggest we might be just as well using Rooker/Kirilloff/Larnach/Garver/Sano to match up against specific pitchers might have a point. I am torn as I love Cruz but I would not be disappointed if the money was spent on pitching. 

 

BTW ... Rosario was 9th in wRC_on the Bomba squad and had the worst defensive rating on the team. We won't miss the current version of Rosario but I do leave room for the possibility he abandons the horrid approach he has at the plate. 

[Out State Twin]

Improved pitching & defense will offset any loss of home runs from our LF & DH. As our public school math teacher taught us "Addition by Subtraction".

[strumdatjaguar]

If the Twins bring Cruz back, they must be willing to limit his at-bats or DFA if Father Time catches up and he is not producing. If he continues to defy time, that is better. But if he slides, they will have bought some time to see who is producing in St Paul.

[ashbury]

"The Twins didn’t trade for Blake Snell. Or Yu Darvish. Or Joe Musgrove....or Sonny Gray.  Or Luis Castillo...."

Nor Sandy Koufax. Nor Walter Johnson. Oh wait, Johnson is probably still under the reserve clause if we want him.

 

As for Nelson Cruz, he's been enough above-average, even in the demanding role of DH, that I'd be entirely happy to risk a one-year contract in the $10M range to ensure not missing out on another such season if he proves to be still capable. I'm a cheapskate at heart and would not lightly throw away close to 10% of my team's annual budget for salary, but I also want above average performance relative to the competition at every slot in the lineup I can get.

 

[tony&rodney]

Well, we are at the end of January and all of the winter tribulations will be settled soon enough, just in time to see the speculations begin about the potential in-season trades and pickups of released players.

Nelson Cruz will not be signing for $10 million and his performance for the past two years support him. While salary is increasingly directed at future performance, Cruz is a clear example of the fears of age. I don't follow football at all, but isn't there an older quarterback that plays for Tampa who earns a high salary? 

Baseball has an interesting year ahead of it. So much anxiety by common people over the financials of their team and resource allocation and divergent examples of possibilities: Cleveland, Minnesota, St. Louis, and San Diego all being interesting stories that conflict on many fronts.

The Twins need Cruz more than he needs them, and his performance this season on the Twins team will be critical. So, yes, the Twins need to sign up Nelson Cruz to hold serve in the AL Central.

What a wonderful thing it would be to see Garver repeat 2019, and have Donaldson return to a full injury-free season at MVP form along with each of Buxton, Kepler, Arraez, Sano, Polanco, and Kepler meeting their considerable potential. Minnesota better sign Cruz for insurance though, just in case.

[TopGunn#22]

Major League Ready hit the nail on the head with his comment about budget.

The Twins haven't really said anything about what it is.

All any of us is doing is projecting what we think is a reasonable estimate.

For example:  If Cruz was to be signed for one year at $10 million with another $3-$4 million in incentives they very well COULD afford someone like Rosenthal to be their closer.

Rosenthal would give them a very good overall bullpen.

Rogers & Duffy have the 7th & 8th.   Rosenthal the 9th.  Rogers and Duffey can close if need be.

But I agree that one more THUMPER is needed in that lineup and even if it's Cruz

when does the fall off begin and at his age he will spend at least 2 stints on the IL and will also need regular rest.  

Is Ozuna at 4-5 years and $20 million per year a better investment than one-year of Cruz?

If Cruz were to hit his Performance Bonus of the additional $3-$4 million than Cruz at one-year $14 million is a better investment than the Ozuna option.

But Ozuna is 10-years younger and is undeniably a VERY GOOD hitter.  Hitting #3 or #4 in the Twins lineup he would look very good.  And he can play a little LF if they need.

But as Major League Ready said:  "What actually IS the budget" ???

[Doctor Gast]

Now with the great addition of Simmons , we have edged ahead of CWS. Hopefully soon we can bring home Cruz and that put us in the driver's seat.

I trust they'll come up with a good BP and rotation. We have great hitting and defense.

[mikelink45]

 

Improved pitching & defense will offset any loss of home runs from our LF & DH. As our public school math teacher taught us "Addition by Subtraction".

Look at the scores in the playoffs - it is not improved pitching that is needed, but someone to hit when we need it.

[Shaitan]

I just hope Cruz doesn't take the slow renewal signing personally at this point. It's obvious when a player doesn't want to be here (e.g. Lynn, Morrison, Brett Favre's last year in purple).

 

Given reports on his personality, I don't think it will be a problem.

[rdehring]

I'll agree with those above who indicate the biggest need the Twins have is one more dominant arm in the bullpen. Add another option for the 5th starter spot and a veteran middle infielder on a minor league contract available for callup from St. Paul.

 

I don't see the need to sign Cruz, who I believe isn't likely to perform as he did in 2019 or 2020...maybe more like the last part of 2020. If they don't sign him, I believe the Twins DH's (Rooker and committee) will put up equal or better numbers than Cruz will in 2021. Use those dollars to fill out the bullpen.

[terrydactyls]

I just hope Cruz doesn't take the slow renewal signing personally at this point. It's obvious when a player doesn't want to be here (e.g. Lynn, Morrison, Brett Favre's last year in purple).

 

Given reports on his personality, I don't think it will be a problem.

 

From everything I've read, it is Cruz who is doing the waiting, not the Twins. Ergo (as we used to say in high school Latin class), Cruz shouldn't take a late signing as "personal".

[specialiststeve]

 

Look at the scores in the playoffs - it is not improved pitching that is needed, but someone to hit when we need it.

 

I agree... why we let Rosario go... why Sano needs to be assessed and thought to go the other way.. did for a while 2 years ago... numbers were very good... 

 

Can't rely on home runs "ALL" the time. As fun as watching the Bomba Squad it is better if we have guys that can actually "hit" the ball with 2 strikes instead of swinging from the heals. Unfortunately that seems to be the way of the MLB these days... I am good with the home run but am great when players consistently put the bat on the ball with 2 strikes... Better baseball visually.... 

 

Our young guys coming up seem to have better numbers in contact percentage and seem to have a better "plan". Hopefully it translates at the MLB level. Am excited to find out. 

[Channing1964]

Blah, blah, blah blah Nelson Cruz will not be the answer or the excuse. putting all the faith in more than one rookie is scary and idiotic.

[HrbieFan]

White Sox added Lance Lynn, arguably the worst clubhouse guy in MLB. That is good for at least 5 losses

[DocBauer]

Just a couple bullet points before I address the meat of the OP.

 

1] Nobody has stated anywhere what payroll will be, or is "targeted" at. NOTE: contending teams seem to be making moves and non-conteners really aren't. Hmmm...interesting. The FO knows what is taking place, make no mistake.

 

2] Despite general conjecture, the current FO has pushed payroll higher each of the last few years than speculation would have us believe. They embrace value and opportunity while recognizing potential need.

 

Despite "reports" from agents and "those in the know" that the Twins would be buyers, the FO did what they usually do and practice patience, no matter how much it may frustrate us fans, lol. Suddenly they pounce on Happ and Simons. Now we hear similar reports they have TWO major moves yet to make. Now, we have NO IDEA what they are thinking. They could surprise and pull a rabbit or two out of hat we just don't see right now. They've done it before! But it's not hard to look at need, opportunity and availability and realize Cruz is one of those moves. Also very easy to see another bullpen arm as the second move.

 

Cruz is going to cost about $13-15M. While all of us would be excited for Rosenthal at $7M, adding a power arm, it seems more likely, IMO, for Comlome or Soria for $4-5M. And either of those additions are NICE as proven arms despite lacking major heat. Velocity is great, SO are sexy, but at the end of the day, performance is what matters most.

 

Again, no budget number actually reported...and why would they...these two moves put payroll only around $130-132M.

 

What SHOULD they do, and what do I HOPE they will do? They will continue to embrace opportunity and value as they have done previously. With only a few weeks until ST, there is a HUGE list of FA options looking for jobs/opportunity.

 

INFIELD: Reflecting a different OP, YES, the Twins could have at least one of the best infields in all of MLB. But there are enough questions/concerns about a knee, an ankle and a calf that I have to ask, why would you stop adding depth now? There are at least a half dozen or more interesting options that might be signed for $2-4M max who can play around the infield and have bat potential.

 

BULLPEN: I'm just going to yet again mention Clippard here, who the Twins are supposedly still in contact with. He's had a pretty amazing and very consistent career as a middle man for 1 and 2yr deals for between $2-3M. The list of available pen arms is as long as my arm right now. Some have question marks, of course. But depth of numbers, value and opportunity exist. You don't think they might not sign an "extra" bullpen in February here as We'll?

 

ROTATION: IMO, barring a BIG surprise, which I mentioned previously, the top 4 spots are set. The Twins like Dobnak. They should. They haven't given up on Thorpe yet, clearly, regardless what they see his role being. They have some interesting and some TOP prospects on their way. But are they really done? I think not. Like the RP market, there is a long list of options looking for a chance. Again, there may be questions about age, injury, rebound, etc. But there remains vast opportunity for a cheap ML signing or a split milb/ML signing with invite and opt out etc, to add someone. Think the oftmentioned Foltynewicz just as an example, or the recovering Teheran. There are others. Do you sign with a non contending team? Or do you sign with a winning team and this FO, Johnson as pitching coach, and a 5th spot opening opportunity?

 

With real ML $ available, guaranteed or incentives, three signings in these areas pushes the Twins payroll to the $138-140M they spent last year. Does this work?

 

Back to the beginning, there is no payroll set. Opportunity and value present themselves. Contending teams are spending. The Twins are a contending team. The FO knows what is happening across baseball, make no mistake.

 

Forgetting rabbits and magic tricks that could happen, don't be surprised by a pair of signings followed by a handful of "interesting" signings that could be really valuable.

[h2oface]

This team could be very good, and have some breakout players, or they could be pretty bad. Most are just assuming Maeda will have a similar season. He never had a season like that before, and it was only 2 months. Berrios didn't even have time to fade at the end of a long season, and he struggled to get started in a short one. The bats basically ALL sucked, except for a quick start by Cruz, that carried the .500 team the rest of the way. And Donaldson was a complete bust even when he was healthy. Buxton again was absent from the field far too often. This could go real well..... or horrid. 

 

I think relying on the present rotation is foolish, especially it you are considering Dobnak a starter. Homer's are optimistic, and so am I at the beginning of each season, but I have lots of trepidation about this team so far.

[se7799]

I agree, at least one more bona fide starter is a must. Just cant image trying to make the playoffs with only 5 proven starters to start the season.

[puckstopper1]

 

Improved pitching & defense will offset any loss of home runs from our LF & DH. As our public school math teacher taught us "Addition by Subtraction".

 

The problem is that I don't feel the pitching IS better - definitely not the bullpen after losing Clippard, Wisler, May and Romo, and only adding Robles,

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

Look at the scores in the playoffs - it is not improved pitching that is needed, but someone to hit when we need it.

Small sample size.

[ashbury]

Small sample size.

We all surely desire that the sample size become greater, and scoring more runs would seem a means, as much as an end.

 

[Twins33]

 

Small sample size.

They would have a bigger sample size if they could actually win. 
 

in the 18 losses, SP ERA is 5.33 and the team has averaged 2.6 runs/game in that entire time

Falvey/Levine time its been 4.70 SP ERA and averaged 2.17 runs/game

 

Obviously, the SP pitcher ERA is terrible and needs to greatly improve, but you’ll never get far in the playoffs if the best you can do is 2 runs per game. The Twins SP will never allow 1 or fewer in every single playoff game. 

[Joey Self]

 

 

Rogers & Duffy have the 7th & 8th.   Rosenthal the 9th.  Rogers and Duffey can close if need be.

 

 

 

I hope the Twins don't think like this.  I don't like the idea of a "closer" when the game may be lost by the set-up men.  I want to see the best pitcher against the best hitters whichever of the last three innings they come up.  The matchups for an inning is more important than the inning itself. 

 

JcS