Cody’s Top-20 Twins Prospects: 1-5

[mikelink45]

 

Kirilloff has zero days of MLB service time. Same as Duran, Balazovic, Lewis, Larnach. His service time hasn't started. He was added to the 40-man roster for the playoffs. Had he not been, he obviously would have been added in November. 

 

So, the scenarios/options are these: 

 

1.) Have him up from Opening Day... have him for 6 years. 

2.) Start him in St. Paul, call him up in three weeks (about)... have him for 7 years (4 years of arbitration). 

3.) Start him in St. Paul, call him up in mid-June... have him for 7 years (3 years of arbitration). 

Or give him the extension on a contract that captures all his years and more - which makes more sense to me.

[CTTwin]

Be reminded that the MLBPA agreed to the rules of service time at the last CBA. Probably got something in return also for that.

Plus the older established players usually agree to rules that affect the up and comers but not themselves. So the veterans play a role in the implementation of rules that seem less than ideal for the young guys.

[Major League Ready]

 

I don't disagree but he isn't seen as a top prospect on any boards. Technically he shouldn't be dismissed but it seems most all sites see his age as a problem and in essence he seems to have become a non prospect with prospect status.  His K rate is often cited as a concern as well an issues recognizing breaking balls.  While it is a SSS given how well he did when he came up it all seems a bit overblown.   He is simply likely seeing the Arreaz affect.  Deemed to have too many physical defects (slow, below average arm, likely below average defense) to be a good prospect only to become a good or great MLB player.

 

It really sucks he got hurt so soon. He looked good while he was here but a very SSS. Another 40 games would have helped to evaluate him. However, this situation plays out pretty nicely. He gets a look for at least a month while Kirilloff and Larnach get a chance to prove they are ready. 

 

Is my memory correct in that Arraez was not on anyone's top 100 list?

[Vanimal46]

I also think the players will do everything they can to fix the ridiculous service time rules after this year. But to me I think it's the reason the Twins will keep him down to start if they don't sign him to an extension pre-season. The league won't give up their previously established control on young players who have already debuted. It's more likely the league agrees to fix those rules, but demand all players who've debuted be grandfathered in. So it'd make more sense for the Twins to get all their top guys a cup of coffee at least this year and lock in the team control. If they want to go that shady route. Don't think they'd do that, but wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't start with the big club.

I’ve been curious what they will do in regards to years of control in the next CBA. Will they would grandfather players already in this broken system? I wholeheartedly agree there will be a complete overhaul of the system we know right now. We’ve had years of data showing that GMs no longer want to pay older players, so we need to create a new system to get money to players earlier in their career.

 

If the players will be grandfathered in, wouldn’t it make sense to call up every player you’d like to have 6, wink wink, nearly 7 full seasons of control over?

[Dman]

 

I’ve been curious what they will do in regards to years of control in the next CBA. Will they would grandfather players already in this broken system? I wholeheartedly agree there will be a complete overhaul of the system we know right now. We’ve had years of data showing that GMs no longer want to pay older players, so we need to create a new system to get money to players earlier in their career.

If the players will be grandfathered in, wouldn’t it make sense to call up every player you’d like to have 6, wink wink, nearly 7 full seasons of control over?

 

Yeah 7 years is a long time to control a player.  Granted the first year or two is generally an adjustment to MLB but 7 years plus all the minors work is a long time to control a player.  I know it was done for small market teams but the young player are being robbed of some the most marketable years of their careers.   I think there has to be a change at least 6 years max not 7.

[Dman]

 

It really sucks he got hurt so soon. He looked good while he was here but a very SSS. Another 40 games would have helped to evaluate him. However, this situation plays out pretty nicely. He gets a look for at least a month while Kirilloff and Larnach get a chance to prove they are ready. 

 

Is my memory correct in that Arraez was not on anyone's top 100 list?

 

Yep Arraez never made a top 100 list and now other teams drool over the prospect of finding a way to get him on their team.  It just shows the limitations of top100 lists as there are players that break all the rules and become great despite their supposed limited potential.

[Danchat]

Kiriloff should be the Twins' starting LF, but I could see them going with Arraez in LF to start, put Cave in, and etc. And then late April/whenever the year starts they'll call Kiriloff up and he'll starting raking and look way better than the other options. 

 

Man, those service time rules just seem so backwards. I can't blame teams for holding guys back when it's as easy as waiting three weeks to call a guy up. That needs to be fixed.

 

And about Arraez, he was at best the #15-18 Twins prospect. You wouldn't have found him on a Top 300 prospect list, possibly not even 500.

[specialiststeve]

Have read Law's stuff for years and don't trust "most" of his assessments. 

MLB - Larnach #80...

 

Larnach left Oregon State with a .311/.428/.517 line and continued to show his ability to make contact and get on base as a pro with a .307/.385/.468 line heading into 2021. The Twins love his swing and he controls the strike zone extremely well, with the chance to eventually be a plus hitter from the left side. The power came after a swing adjustment and he’s shown the ability to drive the ball to all parts of the ballpark as he continues to work on turning on inside pitches to his pull side.

While Larnach doesn’t run particularly well, he’s an adequate defender with an above-average arm who has shown the ability to play right field. It’s that left-handed bat, though, that will get him to the big leagues and allow him to be the kind of run producer teams like to have in their outfield corners.

 

 

He is a quality hitter with good patience... a very good arm. He will be contributing very soon.... will be a stud. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Or give him the extension on a contract that captures all his years and more - which makes more sense to me.

 

Guessing it doesn't make sense to Scott Boras. 

[mikelink45]

 

Yep Arraez never made a top 100 list and now other teams drool over the prospect of finding a way to get him on their team.  It just shows the limitations of top100 lists as there are players that break all the rules and become great despite their supposed limited potential.

What was the highest that TD writers had him listed as a prospect?

[AlwaysinModeration]

What was the highest that TD writers had him listed as a prospect?

Just doing a quick search, in April of 2019, Seth had Arraez as the #12 ranked position player:

 

#12 - Luis Arraez 2B (Pensacola Blue Wahoos)

 

Arraez returned last year after missing most of 2017 due to knee surgery. After a slow start, he started hitting again and then hit some more. Then about July 4th, he was promoted to Chattanooga where he hit some more. The Twins added him to the 40-man roster. Arraez is impressive to watch in person. He battles out at-bats and puts the ball in play. He’s also gained size and strength and I do think that he has become more athletic. In big league camp, he got time around the infield. In minor league camp, he primarily played second base.

[AlwaysinModeration]

And the TD summary heading into 2019 didn’t have Arraez in the top 20:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/32301-article-td-2019-top-minnesota-twins-prospects-recap/?fromsearch=1

 

Meanwhile MLB didn’t list Arraez in their top 30 top Twins prospects for 2019.

[jmlease1]

 

What are the different requirements for playin LF as opposed to playing RF, other than the throws to 3B? 

 

Target Field has a relatively large LF, as I recall. If they're worried about coverage, they might move Kepler. Probably not, considering how well Kepler's arm plays in RF. We've burned before having guys that just couldn't get to balls (Willingham!), but it's probably not that big of a deal with Kirilloff at this point.

[jmlease1]

 

Not sure why so much attention is being given to this Keith Law guy. He's obviously had prospects in his lists that have flopped, and he's had prospects not in his lists that have done a lot better than the ones at the top of his lists. Time will tell which prospects pan out, not some guy on twitter who is just speculating. 

 

Law is well respected as a prospect evaluator and he's not a guy who just looks at stat lines when doing his evaluations. He scouts players live and on tape and knows what he's doing. He has biases and like everyone he will have misses, but he does a good job of explaining why he's rating players where they are and what he projects them to end up being as a player. He's an actual professional and has earned it. He explains straight-up in his ranking this year how much harder it was to put together the list and feel confident in accuracy because of the pandemic and how much less he was able to see any of these players. That's why he's being listened to.

 

I may not always agree with KLaw, but I would never ignore him.

[TopGunn#22]

There are not 100 MLB prospects who are better than Trevor Larnach.  Because of his size, I could see the Twins having him play a few more games at 1B.  But remember, Twins prospect Sabato is either a 1B or DH (that's it).

Kiriloff will probably be the better hitter, but by how much ?  In the College World Series that Larnach led his Oregon State team to the Championship, every time the Beavers needed a big hit, Larnach was at the plate.  And every time the Kid delivered. 

I don't consider Jeffers a "prospect" anymore.  He was up with the Twins and played a lot.  He has nothing left to prove in the minors.

So for ME, I include Balazovic in the Top 5.  Jeffers is a Big Leaguer.   

I could very much see the Twins keeping Kiriloff in St. Paul for the first 3-weeks of the season and platooning Arraez and Rooker in LF (I'd rather play those two than Cave or Wade).

[Tibs]

I really don't like reading that the pick we used at #1 in the draft still has swing mechanics and defensive play questions at this point. Hopefully he made big strides in that last year while no one was watching.

[SoCalTwinsfan]

Keith Law has now come out with the "Just Missed" list of 12 players that didn't make the Top 100 and Trevor Larnach is not on that either, so he isn't in Law's top 112 prospects, which really isn't surprising considering where's he's had him ranked in the past. As for Luis Arraez, no one had him ranked in the top 100 because he had to very special at his one skill set, hitting for average and controlling the strike zone, to be of value. He's certainly done that. In fact, he's exceeded projections because he's actually hit slightly better in the majors than in the minors or even winter ball.

[rdehring]

 

I am not sure why Rooker is completely dismissed here. He is the most proven of the three (Kirilloff / Larnach) at advanced levels. Rooker produced an OPS of 933 at AAA and 960 in his brief  MLB experience. Kirilloff will probably end up top be the better player but he has not put up numbers yet above high A. 

 

It makes much more sense to me to require Kirilloff to prove he can perform at a high level above A+ ball. Also, to give up a year of control when he has not excelled above A+ would be incompetent and this FO is quite competent. It's not going to happen. Rooker or Cave or an acquisition will be the starting LFer to start the season.

I think many of us are looking at his 2019 numbers at AA without considering his situation. The Twins started him in AA, if memory serves, even though he injured his wrist in spring training. He played the entire year without that injury ever healing and was it one or two trips to the IL? Can't imagine, but suspect, that type of injury had a big effect on his results. 

 

And unlike any of us, the Twins have first hand knowledge of who he is based on an entire summer at the alternate site last year. They obviously were thrilled with what he accomplished, or they wouldn't have called him up to start a playoff game.

 

Yes, he may begin the season in AAA to save a year of service time. However, I suspect the FO is expecting changes to that in the next CBA and won't screw around with him. I expect him to be the starting left fielder on opening day (unless they start Arraez so he isn't sitting for the opener) and will contend for AL ROY.

[baul0010]

 

Keith Law has Balazovich rated about 20+ spots higher than Duran.  I also feel he should be rated higher. Either or both could make contributions here this year, so it will be interesting.

 

I love listening to Keith Law, but some of his prospect takes are not as accurate as his other insights.  I think Jordan will be a good pitching prospect but Duran has amazing stuff.  I could see why he'd be rated higher.

[arby58]

 

I would be very disappointed if Kiriloff does not start the season with us and get an extension soon so that the game of extra months in the minors does not have to be played.

 

The fly in the ointment on 'an extension soon' for Kirilloff is he is represented by Scott Boras, and Boras doesn't do the 'pre-emptive contract extension' for pre-arbitration players. My guess is they stash him in St. Paul for 'seasoning' in April.

[amjgt]

 

 Law seems unafraid to diverge from common opinions.

 

This is one reason I half expected to scroll down and see Jeffers in the 75-100 range. Seems like just the type of guy Law would want to be "first" on.

 

Although if I'm not mistaken, there was a list that had Jeffers top 100 earlier this offseason

[Mike Sixel]

 

This is one reason I half expected to scroll down and see Jeffers in the 75-100 range. Seems like just the type of guy Law would want to be "first" on.

 

Although if I'm not mistaken, there was a list that had Jeffers top 100 earlier this offseason

 

Fangraphs has endorsed that pick since it was made.....

[amjgt]

ESPN's top 100 prospect list just came out

 

15 - Lewis

22 - Kirilloff

37 - Larnach

57 - Jeffers

92 - Balazovic