The 10 Best Twins Targets Among Remaining Free Agents

[Nick Nelson]

Among free agents that have yet to sign (and there are plenty), these 10 are the best fits for the Minnesota Twins. In one man's opinion.These rankings take into account the likely price it'll cost to land the free agent in question. If that were not a factor, I'd have guys like Trevor Bauer and Marcell Ozuna at the top. But all things considered, I'm not especially interested in paying Bauer $35 million annually, or committing to Ozuna for three-plus years, so they don't make the cut.

 

Instead, I went with players that I see as strong fits for the Twins' needs – in terms of the roster, payroll, and overall team-building strategy. Here are my picks, with quick explanations. (Contract estimates via MLB Trade Rumors.) Let's hear yours in the comments.

 

1. Jurickson Profar, UTIL

Estimated Contract: 1 year, $7 million

 

The Twins need to add an impact player in the super-utility role vacated by Marwin González. Generally speaking, my preference would to bring in a new shortstop and slide Jorge Polanco into that role. Unless Minnesota can go and get Jurickson Profar.

 

Functionally, he's a great match. Profar can play second base, left field, third, first, and even short in a pinch (he came up as a shortstop originally). He's a switch-hitter who doesn't strike out much. Most importantly, he seems to be in a state of ascent. The former No. 1 prospect in baseball has been a late bloomer, once considered a bust, but has improved dramatically since arriving in the majors at age 19, and is coming off a career year with the Padres. He turns 28 in February, so he could theoretically become a key part of Minnesota's prime-aged nucleus. I don't think he'll be as cheap as MLBTR projects, but would love to see the Twins land him on a multi-year deal at a similar AAV.

 

2. Jake Odorizzi, SP

Estimated Contract: 3 years, $39 million

 

Aside from Bauer, I'm not convinced any remaining free agent starting pitchers are better than a healthy Jake Odorizzi. That's before you account for the familiarity with a coaching staff that helped the righty unlock his potential and reach the All-Star Game.

 

The Twins need another starting pitcher that at least matches the level of their current top three. Odorizzi checks that box, warranting a "playoff starter" designation, and he's only 30. In 2019, the Twins went 21-9 in his turns. While his 2020 was an injury-ruined mess, there's not much reason to think the health woes will carry forward.

 

Odorizzi could be viewed as the safe and unsexy free agent addition, but I'm not sure why Twins fans would feel that way after seeing what he did two seasons ago. His upside as a borderline ace is hardly theoretical.

 

3. James Paxton, SP

Estimated Contract: 1 year, $10 million

 

There are several intriguing reclamation projects in the starting pitching pool, but Paxton does more for me than others. Though he missed most of 2020 with a flexor strain issue, the lefty reportedly was flashing mid-90s in a December throwing session, and for a 32-year-old his arm has relatively little mileage (750 IP in the majors).

 

Prior to last year, Paxton was a reliable frontline starter, bringing dominant stuff from the left time. He carries his fair share of risk, as someone who's never thrown even 170 innings in a season, but for that reason buying into his potential should be relatively affordable.

 

Plus, the last time he pitched at Target Field a freaking bald eagle landed on his shoulder. If that's not a sign that his future here is written in fate ... I dunno.

 

 

4. Andrelton Simmons, SS

Estimated Contract: 1 year, $12 million

 

If the Twins are going to add a new starting shortstop, Simmons is easily my favorite option on the free agent market. While the buzz around Marcus Semien is not unexciting, Simmons feels like the safer bet, with a more consistent offensive track record and unparalleled defensive rep. It's hard to overstate the value of having the best fielder in the sport at the most critical position on the diamond.

 

Simmons seems likely to accept a shorter-team deal, which is ideal for the Twins as they spend a year or two assessing what they have in Royce Lewis.

 

5. Nelson Cruz, DH

Estimated Contract: 1 year, $16 million

 

We all know what Nelson Cruz is capable of bringing to the table. We've seen it fully on display over the past two seasons. He has been, by some measures, the second-best hitter in baseball behind Mike Trout, and it's hard to ask for anything more in a DH and No. 3 hitter. The problem of course is that Cruz turns 41 in July and wasn't healthy down the stretch.

 

There's no question that the veteran slugger is valuable to the Twins, both as a thunderous bat in the lineup's No. 3 spot and a cherished leader in the clubhouse. But at this point, the downsides – high regression and injury risks, combined with clogging up the DH spot on a team that could use some flexibility there – weigh heavily enough to keep him from being a top priority in my eyes.

 

6. Trevor Rosenthal, RP

Estimated Contract: 2 years, $14 million

 

On the one hand, it's generally unadvisable to spend big bucks on free agent relievers. On the other hand, the Twins' bullpen is running quite low on proven high-end arms, with both incumbent closer Taylor Rogers and newly signed Hansel Robles looking to bounce back from tough seasons. The loss of Trevor May and his dominant stuff will be felt in this unit, but Trevor Rosenthal could help negate it. (And not just by refilling the "Trevor" quotient.)

 

Rosenthal is coming off a stellar campaign, in which he posted a 1.90 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. He throws in the high 90s and can touch 100. He's one of the league's top strikeout pitchers. Adding him into Minnesota's late-inning mix alongside Rogers, Robles and Tyler Duffey would be a transformative upgrade, greatly lessening the pressure on inexperienced Jorge Alcala to step up in big spots right away.

 

I know some folks fancy Brad Hand for similar reasons, but count me out on him. He's not a great fit in this bullpen functionally to begin with, and moreover, there's something deeply concerning to me about every team in the majors passing up his one-year, $10 million commitment on waivers at a time where Liam Hendriks can score $54 million guaranteed.

 

7. Kirby Yates, RP

Estimated Contract: 1 year, $5 million

 

Much like starting pitching, the free agency market is teeming with interesting rebound candidates with glossy track records. If I'm putting my money on one it is Yates, who offers Hendriks-like upside if healthy and should come at something like 10% of the cost.

 

Instead of making a drawn-out case for the former Padre, I'll simply list his 2019 stats and let you salivate at the thought of adding anything approaching his peak form to the Twins bullpen: 60.2 IP, 1.19 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 2 HR, 15.0 K/9, 1.9 BB/9.

 

8. José Quintana, SP

Estimated Contract: 2 years, $18 million

 

The argument for José Quintana is simple: he's a highly accomplished veteran who raises the rotation's floor. Although a lat injury and thumb laceration limited him to 10 innings in 2020, he'd previously been incredibly durable, making making 31-plus starts and totaling more than 170 innings in seven straight years. He has posted an above-average ERA+ in eight of nine MLB seasons.

 

It's been a while since Quintana has been credibly viewed as a rotation-fronter, but the Twins don't necessarily need one. The left-hander would bring steady stability, and at age 32 a late-career renaissance doesn't seem out of the question.

 

9. Kiké Hernández, UTIL

Estimated Contract: 1 year, $7 million

 

Many words have been written on why Kiké Hernández is a nice fit for the Twins, and I won't rehash them too much. In short, his defensive versatility, ability to hit left-handed pitching, and experience on a perennial contender and reigning World Series champ all align nicely with Minnesota's circumstances.

 

The reason I don't have him higher on this list is that I'm just not convinced Hernández is all that great of a player. His OPS+ has been lower than 90 in three of the past five seasons and he has only once posted an fWAR higher than 1.5 in the big leagues. I see him more as a fallback option if the Twins miss out on Profar, or a nice asset as the secondary utility piece, rather than being a highly desirable target to fill the Marwin role.

 

Note that the contract estimate above is my own, since MLBTR didn't have Hernández listed. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets less.

 

10. Tyler Clippard, RP

Estimated Contract: 1 year, $3 million

 

Rounding out the list, another player who I see as more of a complementary fit as opposed to a primary target. It'd be disappointing if Clippard was the most prominent remaining addition to this bullpen, but it would also be a little disappointing if he isn't added. He was just so incredibly useful for the 2020 Twins, and the cost to bring him back should be negligible (this, again, is my own estimate since MLBTR didn't list him).

 

Now that May has signed elsewhere, Clippard, Cruz and Odorizzi are the only Twins free agents that I'm particularly keen on bringing back.

 

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[Andrew Bryzgornia]

I like this list, but my thoughts:

 

1) Simmons has to get more than a 1-year contract. There's no way the best defensive SS in the league, who also has a 99 wRC+ over the past 4 years as he changed his approach for the better at the plate, is getting a 1-year contract. 

2) I think you're being a little pessimistic about Hernandez, if he's used correctly. If he's used strictly as a LHP masher (career 120 wRC+), then he's a perfect fit to spell Kepler (74 wRC+), Polanco (89 wRC+), and Arraez (89 wRC+). But if he starts drawing constant starts against RHP (82 wRC+), then there's a problem. I also think $7 million for him is slightly too high. 

 

3) Profar had major throwing problems over 2018-2019 (19 throwing errors in 2018, 11 TE in 2019, all at 2B) and had only 16 starts and 18 total appearances in the infield in 2020 which is likely chasing teams off. 

 

4) This isn't a complete list, but two infield free agents I'd love to have:

 

- Tommy La Stella: Yeah, being a lefty hitter doesn't fit well on this team, but he's been a solid hitter in a reserve role the past 4 years (117 wRC+) and thus is good Arraez/Donaldson insurance if he's willing to start the season as a bench player. Since he doesn't play SS, this makes Tzu-Wei Lin be the Adrianza replacement. 

 

- Hanser Alberto: A righty-hitting Arraez that doesn't walk. Also can't play SS, so Lin is still on the roster. 

[ToddlerHarmon]

SIMMONS!

 

Seriously, Simmons at SS and Buxton in CF would already be unfair. With Donaldson, Kepler, and Jeffers, that's a darn good defense

 

[ashbury]

Now that May has signed elsewhere, Clippard and Cruz are the only Twins free agents that I'm particularly keen on bringing back.

Also Odo? You had him higher in your ranking than those two.

 

The need to include the descriptor "healthy" in front of Odorizzi's name is why I've been lukewarm on giving him the contract he wants. I like him, a lot, and I think in particular he's a bulldog when on the mound. But the inability to get more than 5+ innings out of his 100-pitch allotment tempers my enthusiasm, and I just have this sense that he's always going to be juggling one nagging ailment or another for the rest of his career.

 

I don't share your fascination with Profar.

 

The risk with bringing in Simmons for SS is clubhouse chemistry, if Polanco and/or Arraez feel slighted by being bumped down in the defensive hierarchy, even in favor of someone with impeccable defensive chops. It wouldn't make Polanco a bad person, and the FO has a better insight on that than any of us outsiders do, but it still wouldn't be with 100% certainty. It's the move I would favor, absent that risk, and even with the risk it's something I would take to Rocco and say, "earn your salary, make this work."

 

[mike8791]

Very well-written article, Nick!!  Mostly agree with you but have a few questions: 

 

First, you rank Odo #2 on your list of gets but summarize by saying  "Now that May has signed elsewhere, Clippard and Cruz are the only Twins free agents that I'm particularly keen on bringing back."  Huh??  Agree totally that Odo should be resigned(and yes, Paxton is #2 most desirable FA target), assuming the Twins are unable to trade.  Twins cannot afford to take high risks here if they want to compete with the big boys.  They need a solid top 4!!

 

Second, while you didn't place Cruz as a top priority to resign(#5), an opinion I share because of age and inability to fill in elsewhere, you didn't mention who should replace him.  Rosario is gone, so without Cruz, this leaves a big hole in an offense that way underperformed in 2020, particularly in playoffs, as usual.  FA replacements like Ozuna, Springer or Brantley would blow the Twins budget,  So how would you fill this hole?

 

Love your top 2 RP picks of Rosenthal, Yates(in that order).  The Twins need to add a quality late inning reliever who can miss bats.  Either of these two fit the bill.  No one else does but a 3rd pickup like Clippard or Soria would be an added bonus so long as they didn't prevent signing of a better reliever as well.

 

For SS, I had been a big believer in Semien, but believe your selection of Simmons as #1 choice is better, primarily because of defense and question marks of 2019 being a fluke year for Semien.  My question is: if Simmons signed, does Polanco become the 5th IF and fill-in for DH if Cruz not resigned or do you still prefer to sign Profar for this role?  Personally, I prefer adding a Profar or Kiki and using Polanco in trade(see below).

 

And finally, one additional thought.  Does a major trade have any chance of occurring with this risk adverse FO?  For example, a trade with the Reds for Sonny Gray and Castellanos makes just too much sense.  We would get back a much younger DH with very good positional flexibility and a pitcher with seemingly higher upside than either Odo or Paxton.  Yes, we might have to give up a couple of top prospects but we do have surplus OFs so Larnach might be attractive, as would Polanco to fill the Reds glaring need at SS.  Yes, we might have to add one of our 4/5 best pitching prospects but the return would be worth it, IMO.  Taking Castellanos with Gray would probably reduce the prospect value we'd have to give up, similar to Mets taking back Carrasco with Lindor.  This deal makes too much sense not to be at the top of the Twins' offseason wish list.

 

And, of course, how much is this organization willing to spend to push the needle forward, rather than running in place?  This is a critical time for Falvine and company.  As you point out, there are some tremendous opportunities this offseason if only this FO would be agressive!!

[Minny505]

I'm so confused by the absence of Masahiro Tanaka from this list. He is the flip side of the Jake Odorizzi coin. If Odorizzi is 2a, Tanaka should be 2b...right?

 

Whatever it takes to sign Odo, that is about the same as it will take to sign Tanaka. MLBTR has them projected for the exact same contract. And the Yankees are likely out of the bidding now. 

 

Mostly curious as to your reasoning Nick for not including him?

[TopGunn#22]

I agree, Simmons on a 2-year $12.0 million per year deal works better.  I'm not sure when Lewis would be up in 2021  (if at all)  and then 2022 would give you a chance to see Lewis as your "Super Utility" guy.

 

I'm a HUGE Nellie Cruz guy.  But I think while Nellie WANTS $16 million, he's not going to get that from anybody   even if the N.L.  adopts the DH  (and it's sounding like the owners are holding that back until 2022 for leverage).

 

I see the upside of Paxton as higher than Odorizzi but Odo is much more of a sure thing durability wise.  I'd go 2 years for both with Odo getting 2 yrs $26 million and Paxton 2-years $20 million.  That way I've got a very solid staff top to bottom in 2021 and I've got a replacement for Pineda in 2022 and I'm ready to give a shot Duran or Balazovic (or both if things get sticky with Berrios).

This is also why I don't spend $16 million for Cruz. 

I can have BOTH Odorizzi and Paxton for $23 without giving Cruz $16.

 

I think Rosenthal would be a GREAT signing and I'd go 2-years with him as well at $7 mil per year. 

But here's a BIG departure I have with Nick.  If I can actually get Yates on a 1-year $5 million dollar contract why would I even consider Clippard at $3 million ??  What is the ceiling of Yates vs Clippard at just $2 million more ??  No-Brainer. 

And there's no reason the Twins couldn't have BOTH Rosenthal and Yates if we have to give serious consideration to the rampant speculation that the Mets, despite having Diaz are ready to sign Brand Hand.

 

5 guys:

Simmons, Odorizzi, Paxton, Rosenthal and Yates add $47 million.  That's doable.

We fill DH with a combo of Kiriloff, Donaldson, Sano, Garver, Rooker, Polanco, Arraez and Larnach.  (that's 8 guys) !!

As ToddlerHarmon pointed out, up the middle "D" with Buxton, Simmons, Jeffers is tremendous.  Polanco and Arraez are 2B, Super UT guys who are regular bats in the lineup.

You build a great rotation with an awesome BP and count on bounceback years from Kepler, Sano, Garver, Polanco and you give enough AB's to Kiriloff, Rooker and Larnach to see what you've got with the young guys.

Maybe later in the summer Lewis is up and in the mix.

 

Here, you're not trading a bunch of promising prospects for a Castillo or Marquez.

And you're giving your young hitters a chance to show you something.

Simmons hasn't been the most durable guy lately but you still have Polanco able to fill in at SS.  (and Lewis waiting in the wings)

You would need to commit to bringing Rooker and Kiriloff north (service time be damned with Kiriloff) right off the bat.     

 

This would be a team that could compete for a Central Division title and make a deep run in the playoffs.  And let's face it    if Kepler, Sano, Garver and Polanco don't return to 2019 form no matter WHAT the Twins do it won't be enough.

Depending on how they do and how other players like a Jeffers, Lewis, Taylor Rogers, Kepler develop/bounce back you could even rebuild trade value on a Sano, Polanco or Garver.   

[chpettit19]

 

I'm so confused by the absence of Masahiro Tanaka from this list. He is the flip side of the Jake Odorizzi coin. If Odorizzi is 2a, Tanaka should be 2b...right?

 

Whatever it takes to sign Odo, that is about the same as it will take to sign Tanaka. MLBTR has them projected for the exact same contract. And the Yankees are likely out of the bidding now. 

 

Mostly curious as to your reasoning Nick for not including him?

Most recent reports I've seen on Tanaka are that he's looking for 1 year, 15-20 mil. Also rumors that he's more than willing to go back to Japan and end his career there if he can't get that kind of money. Agree he is an intriguing signing, but I don't think he's worth 15-20.

[Tom Froemming]

I did this same exercise a bit earlier in the offseason and landed on Semien, Paxton, Bauer, Walker, Rosenthal, Yates, Brantley, Profar in that order among the guys who are still available. More thoughts on how I arrived at that list here.

[chpettit19]

 

5 guys:

Simmons, Odorizzi, Paxton, Rosenthal and Yates add $47 million.

 

That, or something similar, would be my choice of offseason moves as well. Simmons is my #1 position player signing, and adding 2 starters and 2 bullpen guys would be my move. I'd love to see Cruz back, but his risk of regression mixed with his reported contract desires makes it hard to build out the team around him, unfortunately.

[nicksaviking]

Unless it's Bauer, I don't want to give any of these free agent pitchers more than a two year deal. I'd rather the Twins take the same approach to the starters as last year. Trade for someone who's a lock to be one of the top three rotation pieces if possible, then sign two or three of the bounce back/lotto ticket guys to fill out the last spot or two.

 

Maybe try some of Paxton, Foltynewicz, Hamels, Godley, Lester, Hill, Samardzija or Leake. They're not exciting, but I don't know that if you tried out a few of them you'd find them to have dissimilar results to Odorizzi. We already know if Odorizzi is here, five innings is going to be the max for that spot in the rotation anyway. I'd rather have multiple options and roll with the hot hand than commit three years of starts to someone I'm not confident in.

 

Also Carlos Rodon. I'd probably want to stick him in the bullpen, but I'd like him just to see if we can rub something in Chicago's face.

[rdehring]

Interesting article, thanks.

 

Have a feeling that the Twins are waiting making a move for a shortstop until they have a decision on Cruz. If they sign a starting shortstop and move Polanco to super utility status, they are going to need an opening at DH to keep his bat in the lineup a couple games a week. And if healthy, Polanco's bat must be in the lineup nearly every game.

 

Will be interesting how long they wait for Cruz to make a decision, eventually they need to move on.

[nicksaviking]

 

Interesting article, thanks.

 

Have a feeling that the Twins are waiting making a move for a shortstop until they have a decision on Cruz. If they sign a starting shortstop and move Polanco to super utility status, they are going to need an opening at DH to keep his bat in the lineup a couple games a week. And if healthy, Polanco's bat must be in the lineup nearly every game.

 

Will be interesting how long they wait for Cruz to make a decision, eventually they need to move on.

 

I actually think it's the opposite. I think the Cruz decision probably hinges on what they do with the middle infield help. If they make a move that allows Donaldson and/or Sano to DH regularly, then they may move on from Cruz.

[4twinsJA]

If Yates willing to come to Twins and will sign for 5M, I am all for it. Plus Cruz, Simmons, and Walker. Cruz on one yr. contract, Simmons fine with 2 yr. will have other offers at 2 yrs., Walker, thought Twins missed on him last year, signing Bailey to 7M contract and only offering Walker a minor league deal. 2-3 yr. deal for Walker.

[mikelink45]

I am in need of some action.  I do not know how many articles I can read about all the FA that are just right for the Twins.  This has been going on for four months.  And today Aaron Gleeman has a similar article.  

 

I lean towards the young player unless the veteran significantly upgrades the team.  I do not want to be as good as last year, I want to be better.  Our history of going to the playoffs is more than our losing streak.  When we get there we see what is lacking or should and then what?

 

Last year we went to Jeffers, Alcala, Kiriloff, and Rooker.  I do not want any of them replaced - I want to see what they can do - they have upside.  Blankenhorn might be a utility guy, but I am not sold on him. 

 

Dobnak might have had his balloon bust so Balazovic and Duran need to move up and we can take one more pitcher, but is the repeat of Odorizzi a move that upgrades?  Maybe Paxton?  

 

But it will be interesting to read about the relevant players in two weeks if we do not have a signing to analyze and dream about. 

[Channing1964]

How come nobody wants to bring Marwin back. Again, do I have to remind everyone about the importance of team chemistry. putting a team on the field that includes Odorizzi, Cruz, Gonzalez, Clippard, Romo, and Adrianza is still a potential World Series contender. Maybe we should just bring our own guys back?

[rdehring]

 

I actually think it's the opposite. I think the Cruz decision probably hinges on what they do with the middle infield help. If they make a move that allows Donaldson and/or Sano to DH regularly, then they may move on from Cruz.

As they say, which came first...the chicken or the egg?

 

You could be right, but infield help and Cruz are probably linked in some order.

[Out State Twin]

Will Nick Gordon ever live up to his draft potential as he is undersized. Highly disappointing.

[chpettit19]

 

How come nobody wants to bring Marwin back. Again, do I have to remind everyone about the importance of team chemistry. putting a team on the field that includes Odorizzi, Cruz, Gonzalez, Clippard, Romo, and Adrianza is still a potential World Series contender. Maybe we should just bring our own guys back?

Marwin's OPS+ went from below average, but not killing you at 94 in his first year with the Twins and cratered to 68 last year. He isn't a good enough baseball player anymore. 

 

And team chemistry in the majors isn't about simply having the same guys in the same clubhouse year after year. These guys are professional athletes who are used to having guys come and go. You definitely want guys who get along and trust the guys next to them, but Marwin leaving will have no effect on the clubhouse chemistry. 

 

And running back the same team as last year is not a serious attempt at a WS. It's a team that probably competes for the playoffs, but wouldn't even be the favorite to win the division.

[TopGunn#22]

I agree Mikelink45 it's time for the Twins to eclipse the Hansel Robles signing.

I too am tired of all these "great fits" with nothing happening.

To the idea that we should shy away from Simmons because it might hurt the "feelings" of Polanco or Arraez TOUGH CRAP !  

The Twins are in the business of winning baseball games, and hopefully their first playoff game victory in 18 years, NOT holding the hands of players who might be "triggered" by someone taking their place in the lineup or on the field.

As a matter of fact, trading Polanco to the Reds in a package for Gray and Castellanos might just be in the realm of possibility.

Nobody wants to bring Marwan back because he's priced himself out of the Twins plans for what they get in return.  There are much better options available.  

 

[Det95Twins]

 

Most recent reports I've seen on Tanaka are that he's looking for 1 year, 15-20 mil. Also rumors that he's more than willing to go back to Japan and end his career there if he can't get that kind of money. Agree he is an intriguing signing, but I don't think he's worth 15-20.

 

[Det95Twins]

Tanaka made it clear he wants to play in a big market on either coast.  Minnesota doesn't fit the bill.

[LewFordLives]

Good article. I agree 100 percent that Yates and Rosenthal would be good fits for the Twins. Unfortunately, they would fit on a lot of teams, and I don't see them signing for the projected amounts shown here, especially when Trevor May got what he did. This front office has shown they don't want to devote significant dollars to relief pitching. Once the music stops, I'm afraid the Twins will be left without a chair for the area they need the most help.

[Rosterman]

I would love to see Tanaka instead of Odorizzi. Jake seems to be at a 5-inning limit. If you put him with an opener, you might be able to get an extra inning.

 

I think the Twins seriously need to get an infielder who can play third when you put Donaldson at DH and not lose the punch.

 

Simmons would be a GREAT choice. I would long-term him. Semian would also be a great choice. I see the Dodgers would like tu use him at third.

 

Hand being passed for one-year at $10 is my question. Yes, Rosenthal would be a wonderful choice. The Twins could do save by committee. And I would be game for Clippard.

 

The only way Cruz comes back is on a one-year deal with an option for a second with performance requirements, sadly.

[James Rivah Twins Fan]

Wow, great article and series of comments. You guys rock!

[Nick Nelson]

 

I actually think it's the opposite. I think the Cruz decision probably hinges on what they do with the middle infield help. If they make a move that allows Donaldson and/or Sano to DH regularly, then they may move on from Cruz.

Interesting thought, and if true, Cruz may live to regret passing up those earlier offers from the Twins. If they're out on him and there's no DH in NL, his market shrinks up in a hurry.