Hansel Robles Should be the Twins Closer

[Cooper Carlson]

The Twins recently signed right handed reliever Hansel Robles, who will slide into the opening day bullpen. I think it makes sense for him to take on the closer role to start the season.The role of the closing pitcher in MLB bullpens has evolved a bit in recent years, especially with the Twins. It used to be that your best reliever was always your closer, like with Mariano Rivera or Joe Nathan. Now, as we saw with the Twins last season, the closer role could simply be whoever is available.

 

Hansel Robles is not at all the Twins best reliever. That, to me, is a large part of why he would be the best option to be the Twins closer. Let Taylor Rogers and Tyler Duffey pitch the seventh and eighth innings while allowing the Twins to extend their lead. Then, when the Twins hopefully have a multi-run lead, let Robles finish it off.

 

Robles has a bit of experience as the closer from his 2019 season with the Angels. In the 71 games he pitched in, he got the save 23 times. He wasn't the full time closer, but he certainly had his opportunities.

 

When pitching in the ninth inning in 2019, Robles had a 2.52 ERA, 8.7 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9. He has experience and the statistics to back up the decision to have him close.

 

I would expect Robles to have a similar role with the Twins that he had with the Angels in 2019. Not the full time closer, because I don't think the Twins want a full time closer, but the guy who will get a majority of the save opportunities. We'll see how it plays out, and if the Twins bring in a big reliever to change everyone's role.

 

SEE ALSO

• Twins Sign RHP Hansel Robles | Seth Stohs
• Twins Offseason Status Update: Slow Going | Nick Nelson
• Potential Twins Free Agent Targets: 8 Flying Under the Radar | Tom Froemming
• Brad Hand Would Love to Play for the Twins | Cooper Carlson

 

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[tony&rodney]

Wait. Robles is better than Liam Hendriks? The Twins need to sign a strong arm.

Robles might be good for the 7th inning. He isn't bad. I'm higher on Stashak and Alcala at the moment and remain hopeful of a Hendriks signing. Why not?

[Rigby]

Ron Davis redux?

[DocBauer]

I appreciate your idea, Cooper, and your intent. But as you stated, and as Rocco has stated, there is no plan at this time for a traditional closer. But I do think your idea has real merit in that Rogers, Duffey and someone I believe not yet signed yet could end up being the true "firemen" with someone like Robles finishing off or "closing" the game with a sufficient lead. And ideally, there would be a lot of games where the offense would provide that kind of cushion. But it doesn't always work out that way, of course.

 

For those who long for a Hendricks or Hand signing, while it could happen I believe, it doesn't mean they would be brought on board as a definitive closer either. They would be a high leverage arm but that doesn't mean a traditional 9th inning spot. Baseball evolved in to having closers but seems to be evolving again in to matchups. The 8th and even the 7th innings can be higher stress than the 9th depending on the score and the other team's lineup.

 

I absolutely will not disparage Hand, Hendricks or anyone similar. So please understand that. But we have seen a number of 30yo plus RP arms signed to multi year contracts that suddenly turn volatile. Reed, signed a couple years ago, is a slightly lower grade example. Are the Twins potentially better off with Rosenthal, a bounce back candidate in Yates or the even younger Bradley for somewhere around $5-6M?

 

If so, then you probably have room to bring in one additional arm like maybe Clippard for $2.5-3M to deepen the pen even further.

 

I hated to lose May, but if you give me FA TBD along with Rogers, Duffey, Robles, Alcala, Clippard, Stashak and Thielbar with depth options I'm very optimistic regardless of who "closes" and when.

[Danchat]

I'd be up for trying him out in the backend of the bullpen, and give him higher leverage chances if he proves himself. But throwing him right into the closer role after how he pitched last year? No thanks!

[GNess]

 

Ron Davis redux?

I sure hope not!

[prouster]

Relievers tend to be more volatile year to year than other players. Robles was very bad in 2020, of course with the usual caveats. There’s a debate to be had over how large of a red flag the season really was, but there can be no doubt that it was indeed a red flag. He could improve a lot next year, or he could be washed up. I think it would be foolish to trust him to pick up where he left off in 2019. He should have to earn high leverage innings.

[mikelink45]

I believe that is what spring training is for.  If Robles and Rogers are no better than they were last year they are just fillers and not to be relied upon.  If Colina got rid of his jitters last year he might be the option.  So far this is a BP that still looks very shaky to me.  Duffy and Alcala are the best two arms at this stage, Stashak is a dependable arm.  Then we hope to be pleasantly surprised. 

[TwinsFan268]

So many articles about Hansel Robles God this offseason is slow

[4twinsJA]

Like closer by committee, matchups, who's pitching well, don't think Twins need to designate a traditional closer.

[heresthething]

Let's hope this guy and whoever else they sign is durable given what looks to be the Twins strategy to limit starting pitching to about 5 innings.  They need guys with rubber arms like Clippard and back in the day everyday Eddie.

[PDX Twin]

 

Relievers tend to be more volatile year to year than other players. 

 

Why is this?

 

I think there are (at least) two reasons to doubt outcome statistics for relievers. First, one season is a small sample size for a typical relief pitcher -- 50-70 innings. One bad/unlucky outing (4 earned runs, say) can take a month of shutout pitching to dilute down to a decent ERA. Second, more of their outcome statistics are out of their control than any other player. They often leave runners on base who may or may not score and they may end up facing clutch pinch hitters selected specifically to face them. 

 

I'm a skeptic about the tendency of some to denigrate outcome-based statistics, but this seems like one area where structural performance numbers such as velocity, spin rate, and detailed location data can be most helpful and ERA is less useful, at least season by season.

[lukeduke1980]

If Robles pitches well there are plenty of important innings to cover.

[IndianaTwin]

 

...I absolutely will not disparage Hand, Hendricks or anyone similar. So please understand that. But we have seen a number of 30yo plus RP arms signed to multi year contracts that suddenly turn volatile. Reed, signed a couple years ago, is a slightly lower grade example. Are the Twins potentially better off with Rosenthal, a bounce back candidate in Yates or the even younger Bradley for somewhere around $5-6M?

If so, then you probably have room to bring in one additional arm like maybe Clippard for $2.5-3M to deepen the pen even further...

 

Concur. I see this and will up it one.

 

A forgotten guy is David Robertson. After being shut down from his TJS recovery in August, the hope was for him to still be ready by spring training. If he's still on target, I'd use a million or so of your savings to sign him, with similar bonuses (on games/innings pitched, rather than games finished) to what they used on Robles, along with an option for 2022.

[Major League Ready]

The only way I see the Twins investing in the highest profile RPs would be if the bottom absolutely falls out of what these RPS have been paid over the past few years. “Volatile” does not quite illustrate how bad of an investment high profile RPs have been of late. Here is a summation of the top 10 RPs signed for the 2018+ seasons. 

 

Over the course of 2018 and 2019. None of them had a WAR above 1 for both seasons. In fact, Andrew Cashner was the only one to have a WAR above 1 in either season. 

 

Collectively they averaged .3 WAR in 2018 and .19 WAR in 2019. The cost per WAR in 2018 was $30M and $45M per WAR in 2019.

 

The top 10 RPs signed for the 2019 season fair slightly better.

Only Adam Ottovito had a fWAR above 9 at 1.3. Zack Britton was at .9 and to be fair bWAR rated them both higher. The other 8 produced a combined 0 WAR.

 

Over the 2 years for the class of 18 and 1 year for the class of 2019, these players produced less than .5 war in 20 of the combined 30 seasons. I sure hope they can find additions with a higher probability of success.

[jmlease1]

 

I absolutely will not disparage Hand, Hendricks or anyone similar. So please understand that. But we have seen a number of 30yo plus RP arms signed to multi year contracts that suddenly turn volatile. Reed, signed a couple years ago, is a slightly lower grade example. Are the Twins potentially better off with Rosenthal, a bounce back candidate in Yates or the even younger Bradley for somewhere around $5-6M?

If so, then you probably have room to bring in one additional arm like maybe Clippard for $2.5-3M to deepen the pen even further.

I hated to lose May, but if you give me FA TBD along with Rogers, Duffey, Robles, Alcala, Clippard, Stashak and Thielbar with depth options I'm very optimistic regardless of who "closes" and when.

 

This. I think teams are realizing that paying a premium for a "proven" closer is usually a poor use of resources, and multi-year contracts for relievers has higher levels of risk not because of the talent of the pitcher but just because of the fungible nature of the position.

 

It's tough to succeed as a starter without 3 effective pitches. As a reliever, you need one dominant offering and one other pitch that is effective playing off the first pitch. Which is why you're seeing starters who have that one dominant pitch and can't get their secondary stuff up to snuff continuing to have success converting to the bullpen. The secondary effect of that is you are having additional internal options for teams to develop bullpen options for the MLB club, because it's not just guys coming through as relievers. With the chain continuing to fill, what's the incentive to pay FA guys premium salaries?

 

The days of paying "closers" $10-15M AAV contracts is done, and so is giving guys that kind of money for 3-5 years. You're going to see a lot more guys getting non-tendered as relievers from now on I think as clubs reset the market on relief pitching. If Taylor Rogers doesn't have a great season, he's going to be non-tendered too because the team probably isn't going to pay him $8M when his FA market value is $5M or less.

[prouster]

Why is this?

 

I think there are (at least) two reasons to doubt outcome statistics for relievers. First, one season is a small sample size for a typical relief pitcher -- 50-70 innings. One bad/unlucky outing (4 earned runs, say) can take a month of shutout pitching to dilute down to a decent ERA. Second, more of their outcome statistics are out of their control than any other player. They often leave runners on base who may or may not score and they may end up facing clutch pinch hitters selected specifically to face them.

 

I'm a skeptic about the tendency of some to denigrate outcome-based statistics, but this seems like one area where structural performance numbers such as velocity, spin rate, and detailed location data can be most helpful and ERA is less useful, at least season by season.

This is a really great point. I haven’t thought about it this way. PDX Twin, expanding minds!

[FritzDahmus]

Good plan....if you have a nice lead in the 9th.

 

How about bring in what you need when you need it..........

 

Gardy drove me nuts with his "everyone has a role" B.S.

[mikelink45]

 

Why is this?

 

I think there are (at least) two reasons to doubt outcome statistics for relievers. First, one season is a small sample size for a typical relief pitcher -- 50-70 innings. One bad/unlucky outing (4 earned runs, say) can take a month of shutout pitching to dilute down to a decent ERA. Second, more of their outcome statistics are out of their control than any other player. They often leave runners on base who may or may not score and they may end up facing clutch pinch hitters selected specifically to face them. 

 

I'm a skeptic about the tendency of some to denigrate outcome-based statistics, but this seems like one area where structural performance numbers such as velocity, spin rate, and detailed location data can be most helpful and ERA is less useful, at least season by season.

I think it goes to use or over use.  If we keep the dumb strategy of five inning starters we have to fill 4 innings a game with relief pitchers.  That is 648 relief innings and if we are generous and figure that they throw 1.5 innings on average it 432 relief appearances with warm up pitches and day after day use.  That is a lot of wear and tear - no matter how they are used.  I understand why they have some really bad years. 

[IndianaTwin]

 

From Rotoworld.com. 

 

According to Robert Murray of FanSided, the Astros, Red Sox, Nationals and Twins are among the teams interested in free agent right-hander Alex Colome.

Murray also notes that each franchise has individual ties to Colome, thanks to the presence of former Rays employees within each organization. The 32-year-old right-hander, who was with the Rays from 2013-2018, recorded a microscopic 0.84 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 16/8 K/BB ratio over 21 1/3 innings while also converting 12 saves during the shortened 2020 campaign. There's still a chance that he could reunite with the White Sox, but he would be a logical fit as a high-leverage bullpen arm and potential short-term closing option with any of those potential suitors. The market for free agent relievers has been moving at a glacial pace, with very few notable signings, but there appears to be plenty of interest in Colome this offseason.

 

The MLBTR guess is 1 year at $6M. I'm in. He's another guy that I'm more interested in than a 3-year deal on Hendricks, particularly if it comes with an option year.