Wolfson: Twins Have Real Interest In Marcus Semien

[Nash Walker]

Darren Wolfson confirmed rumors Saturday night on KSTP 5 Eyewitness News that the Twins are eyeing former Oakland Athletics shortstop Marcus Semien.It's well known that the Twins will need to fill at least one utility spot this offseason. Creative minds have wondered whether Jorge Polanco could be the answer, opening up the possibility that Minnesota signs a starting shortstop this winter.

 

Maybe the Twins believe the same. Darren Wolfson confirmed Saturday that the Twins have "real interest" in Marcus Semien. A replay of the news segment is available at KSTP's Twins page, Semien is discussed around the 45-second mark, but here is the clip below.

 

 

Semien put together a truly tremendous 2019 season, hitting .285/.369/.522 with 33 home runs, 43 doubles and seven triples. He finished third for AL MVP behind Mike Trout and Alex Bregman.

 

No matter which way you cut it, that miraculous season looks to be an outlier. Semien hit just .250/.312/.407 in the four years prior to his 2019 explosion. A down 2020 season seemed to add fuel to that fire. This inconsistency and the slow market has seemingly muddied his contract outlook, leading Ken Rosenthal to mull whether he'll get just a one or two year deal.

 

Could this be an opportunity knocking for the Twins? Could Semien thrive as a right-handed hitter at Target Field after years in foul-heaven Oakland? Would Polanco, with his ankle and all, be better served in that utility role?

 

It seems we'll find out soon enough.

 

SEE ALSO

Should Jorge Polanco be the Twins Utility Man?

Reacting to Twins Blockbuster Trade Speculation

Twins Future Position Analysis: Shortstop

 

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[DasBat]

I think there is a lot of buyer beware with him. Hopefully he wouldn’t cost much and we could spend elsewhere than

[Trov]

I think a lot of FA will be signing 1 to 2 year deals.  They may not want to but will need to settle for it. For him he will may want to sign the 1 year deal try to have another good offensive season away from Oakland and then try to get long term deal when fans can sit in seats again. 

 

This actually would bode well for Twins if they think Lewis can be long term SS.  They have buy low short term deal with little risk.  If he crushes they throw the QO on him get a pick, if he is ehhh they let him walk.  If he is below mehh, depending on other moves they fill his spot internally.  

[sdangus]

I can see him being the shortstop, but if Donaldson goes down, maybe Polanco goes back to short and Semein to 3B. I think he might be a better fit at 3B than Polanco.

[TopGunn#22]

I'm interested in this, but i need to have an idea how much better Semien is at SS than Polanco defensively.  I KNOW Andrelton Simmons is superior, how much better is Semien than Polanco.  

 

Jorge's future with the twins or any other team that acquires him as their SS for 2021 is either at 2B or as a "super utility" with an above average bat.  

 

But with the exception of Donaldson, the Twins are distinctly "below average" on defense in the infield.

 

This needs to improve.  

[DasBat]

I think Simmons is the better option depending on price

[Doctor Gast]

Do I think that Polanco should start at SS?                 NO.

Do I think that Polanco should be the utility?               NO.

Do I think that Polanco should start at 2B?                  Yes

Do I think that the Twins should sign Semien?             Dunno?

I believe that the Twins are looking for a SS & they've stopped in to let Semien know   that they are interested & if he would accept $xxxxxxxxx/ year, they are just kicking the tires. I believe Semien wants much more than the FO is offering. As far as FAs go I'm more interested in Hernandez because as a utility player he'll be much cheaper. He be the full time SS and is available to help out CF. He's motivated to prove that he can start full time + he has fire, which Twins need. He's also a clutch hitter w/ a lot of PS experience

[specialiststeve]

Would definitely be interesting... I would be good with Polanco going to utility guy... his health continues to hold him back. If he could play 4-5 days a week I think his production would improve. 

[GNess]

However this shakes out it is encouraging that the FO is thinking big. Semien would be a solid addition as would Simmons or Hernandez. Any of these three noted above would provide more quality, depth and flexibility to make other moves.

[Tom Froemming]

Some more Semien analysis for anybody interested:

 

[h2oface]

DJ LeMahieu is thinking big (and we settled for Jonathan Schoop 2 years ago when we could have had a bargain, and my bet is the Dodgers will be the ones thinking big this off season). Trevor Bauer is thinking big. Semien? Think Brian Dozier's best season and even Twins' fans were still wanting to move him the next year. Semien's 2020 is excusable and still makes him desirable, but Garver's 2020 negates his total progress through 2019? Go figure. 

 

Semien, Simmons, Hernandez..... all good fill and any could break out again. But then, so could Royce Lewis. And so could a healthy Polanco! To me, this is thinking status quo, which right now is not bad. But I don't get a thinking big feeling from this possibility, at all.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm interested in this, but i need to have an idea how much better Semien is at SS than Polanco defensively.  I KNOW Andrelton Simmons is superior, how much better is Semien than Polanco.

Much, much, much better.

[Brock Beauchamp]

My interest in Semien has direct correlation to the front office's conviction about his bat going forward. He posted one monster season but has been pretty pedestrian with the stick outside that single season.

 

Still, his glove is a massive upgrade either way.

[Doctor Gast]

 

I can see him being the shortstop, but if Donaldson goes down, maybe Polanco goes back to short and Semein to 3B. I think he might be a better fit at 3B than Polanco.

If Donaldson goes down I'd rather keep Semien at SS & transition Sano back to  3B. Hopefully Sano could be comfortable enough at 1B to be able to make that transition back & forth. I'd then like to  play Arraez at 1B  in that situation. I`d prefer Sano/ Semien  combo than a Semien/ Polanco.

[Twins_Fan_For_Life]

Is Semien at least average defensively?

[Vanimal46]

I’m intrigued if the terms are 2 years or less. He’s no sure thing, but I like that he’s made significant strides defensively and broke out offensively in 2019.

 

I say 2 years or less because the 2021/22 free agent class at SS is loaded. Lindor, Corey Seager, Correa, Baez, and Story are all set to test free agency.

[miracleb]

 

Much, much, much better.

For sure his glove is NOT much better.   I would say their gloves are comparable.

[TwinsFan268]

Polanco at utility: makes sense

Semien at short: makes sense

Trading Arraez: makes no sense

Seriously, I've said this before, they can't trade this guy, he's their best contact hitter.

[arby58]

 

Do I think that Polanco should start at SS?                 NO.

Do I think that Polanco should be the utility?               NO.

Do I think that Polanco should start at 2B?                  Yes

Do I think that the Twins should sign Semien?             Dunno?

I believe that the Twins are looking for a SS & they've stopped in to let Semien know   that they are interested & if he would accept $xxxxxxxxx/ year, they are just kicking the tires. I believe Semien wants much more than the FO is offering. As far as FAs go I'm more interested in Hernandez because as a utility player he'll be much cheaper. He be the full time SS and is available to help out CF. He's motivated to prove that he can start full time + he has fire, which Twins need. He's also a clutch hitter w/ a lot of PS experience

I don't understand the seeming interest in 'moving on' from Arraez at second base. At 22/23 years old, he has a combined 438 at bats and has hit .331 with an .819 OPS. He's always a tough out, and, major or minor leagues, he's always been a .300+ hitter. Granted, not much power and not great defensively, but Jorge hasn't exactly lit it up in either category of late either. Plus Arraez has longer control/lower salary. I know people say trade him for a pitcher, but I'd rather have him as a table setter playing every day.

[notoriousgod71]

 

I don't understand the seeming interest in 'moving on' from Arraez at second base. At 22/23 years old, he has a combined 438 at bats and has hit .331 with an .819 OPS. He's always a tough out, and, major or minor leagues, he's always been a .300+ hitter. Granted, not much power and not great defensively, but Jorge hasn't exactly lit it up in either category of late either. Plus Arraez has longer control/lower salary. I know people say trade him for a pitcher, but I'd rather have him as a table setter playing every day.

Especially since they spent two years telling us he was basically Rod Carew.

 

I have no interest in Semien. Thus far, he appears to be like every other Twins where his career year was joke of a 2019 season where pitching was dreadful.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Is Semien at least average defensively?

Better than average. He's good. Maybe not elite Gold Glove calibre, but good.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

For sure his glove is NOT much better.   I would say their gloves are comparable.

Not even close. Semien grades as a plus in pretty much every defensive metric while Polanco grades well into the negatives in pretty much every defensive metric. Semien posted good numbers in 2018 and 2019 before dropping off in the 60 game season this past year, but I take any numbers from 2020 with a huge grain of salt.

 

And just watching Semien play, he looks like a good shortstop whereas Polanco makes me cringe on a regular basis, especially that arm.

 

One concern I have about Semien is length of contract and the fact he is 30 years old. While he looked very good as a 27-28 year old, that's far from a guarantee he will continue to look good as a 32 year old, especially at SS, where it feels the defensive decline happens quickly and without warning.

[heresthething]

 

Some more Semien analysis for anybody interested:

 

Tom makes several great points but one that jumps out at me is a reminder of how much playing time our utility guys got in the last couple of years.  Rocco is adamant about load management and when you factor that in plus injury history to Donaldson (calves), Polanco (ankle) and Arraez (knees) a signing like this one does make a lot of sense because it gives Rocco more load management options.  I'm not as sold that they need a utility guy who needs to cover the outfield as much as for the infield positions.  He'll find room for all of them to play and we're gonna need it.

[mikelink45]

It will be interesting, but I am not looking for a big improvement.  Semien is still a one year wonder so it makes me wonder if he can step in and be the improvement we want.  I like the 1 year option with Lewis in the background.

 

Of course no one has speculated that he might be the super utility guy and not Polanco. 

[Aerodeliria]

For the glove alone, I'd take Semien. He can hit .220 for all I care. I want a SS that makes plays in the field. Polanco's arm will always put the Twins at risk in tight games. Polanco can be a DH and a backup at first it second. Arraez can play 3rd if Donaldson goes down. His arm is much better than Polanco's.

[chpettit19]

Does Semien demand a 2 year deal to avoid the avalanche of FA superstar SS next year? Does he take a discount to get that second year? He's an interesting player as he is the definition of a 1 year wonder, but that 1 year was incredible. I'd personally prefer Simmons as I trust his glove and contact bat over Semien ever reproducing his 2019 numbers, but for the right price I'd take a shot at Semien being a slight upgrade at SS and Polanco being a huge upgrade at utility IF over Marwan or Ehire. But like everything else about the Twins, it comes down to the $.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Tom makes several great points but one that jumps out at me is a reminder of how much playing time our utility guys got in the last couple of years.  Rocco is adamant about load management and when you factor that in plus injury history to Donaldson (calves), Polanco (ankle) and Arraez (knees) a signing like this one does make a lot of sense because it gives Rocco more load management options.  I'm not as sold that they need a utility guy who needs to cover the outfield as much as for the infield positions.  He'll find room for all of them to play and we're gonna need it.

I agree that positional flexibility is important but the real wild card in my eyes is Arraez. Mediocre, maybe kinda bad, skills at second don't slide anywhere else on the diamond comfortably. Second base is a bit of a dead-end defensively. If the player's arm was better, they'd be a SS or 3B, not a 2B. And Arraez's range is anything but impressive so he doesn't have much going for him in any aspect of the defensive game.

 

And Luis is too damned promising as a hitter to relegate to the bench more than once or twice a week. I'm not really sure what to do with him and as much as I hate to say it, a trade may be the best option for the Twins. Which is really unfortunate because there's no one on the current team I enjoy watching at the plate more than Luis Arraez. I'm quickly growing tired of three outcome baseball and Arraez is a breath of fresh air to a style of baseball that is simply more fun to watch than today's game.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Of course no one has speculated that he might be the super utility guy and not Polanco. 

Because it doesn't really make sense. Unless the difference in hitting is enormous, you try to play your best defensive infielder at shortstop every day, or close to it.

 

And if the Twins aren't at least moderately confident in Semien returning to being a pretty good (not even great, just pretty good) hitter, they shouldn't go anywhere near him because other teams will offer him enough money to make that a bad decision.

[mike8791]

With 3 good FA SS's on the market - Didi, Simmons and Semien - this seems like a potential upgrade for the team.  My initial preference was for Didi because of his consistent offense over the years and a supposed upgrade over Polanco's defense.  But reviewing the defensive stats, the Twins would be better off with one of the others.  Simmons has never shown much offense and for that reason, Semien probably makes the most sense, although a clear risk that he was a one season wonder.

 

Where I differ from most on this post, is what such a signing would allow the Twins to do, which is enhance their chances for bringing in a top rated starter.  Using one of Arraez or Polanco as a utility infielder undervalues their worth on the market.  We can easily fill that slot with someone like Kiki, Profar or LaStella.  So if we made either Arraez or Polanco as a centerpiece in a trade for one of the top starters reportedly available - Castillo, Gray or Darvish - this combination of moves would greatly strengthen the team, both on offense and pitching.  We know the Reds are in the market for a SS and that the Cubs are in need of a 2B.  We have enough in the way of prospects to consummate a trade with one of these clubs or even Colorado or Pittsburgh.  Castillo would be most desirable but hardest to get, which is why a regular position player would be a valuable trade piece.

 

Sure, I'd hate to lose Arraez as his high OBP provides exactly what this team lacks, but to land another top pitcher would greatly enhance our playoff chances.  Of course, this assumes resigning of Cruz(or equivalent), as well as adding two competent relievers, but at this point why not dream a little?

[Finlander]

I like Semien. He is a significant defensive upgrade in the middle and has flashed decent BB and K rates, extra base talent (whether from his swing or his legs), and positional flexibility. I remember him playing 3 or 4 positions while with the White Sox. Anyone's 2019 stats should be regarded skeptically, as the baseball really seemed to behave differently that year for both hitters and pitchers.

 

I am also in the "keep Arraez" camp. Bats and discipline like that are special, and he is young. I wouldn't call him a gold glover at 2B, but I think his metrics would improve with a better defensive SS. Polanco would be very good as a Marwin supersub replacement, and perhaps mid-season trade chip for stretch run relief pitching when Royce is ready. Whichever way the Twins proceed, defensive and health improvements are needed across the whole infield. Doing this might help make MN an even more attractive destination for pitchers.