Patience: The Rotation Edition

[Cody Pirkl]

The Twins front office has made pitching development an artform when it comes to the bullpen, but many fans still feel less than confident about the rotation. After years of calling for upgrades to the rotation, what if better days are right around the corner?In 2016 Cleveland made it to the World Series and made several draft picks that set them up for years of future success. In the 2016 amateur draft, they plucked up Aaron Civale, Zack Plesac and 2020 Cy Young winner Shane Bieber. While not superstar prospects at the time, Cleveland put them through their system of analytic development and moulded them into the Twins killers they are today. Cleveland was living large in 2016, but what if I told you they lost the individual that identified this future juggernaut pitching rotation? Someone who was certainly also familiar with their system in place that developed such high end talent?

 

After 2016, the Twins stole Derek Falvey away. As co-head of baseball operations, Falvey played a heavy role in the draft process that landed Cleveland much of the redeeming players on their current roster. He was now making draft picks for the division rival and trying to recreate the system that Cleveland had.

 

Pitchers drafted by Falvey and showing a lot of promise for the future include Blayne Elnow and Bailey Ober in 2017, Cole Sands and Josh Winder in 2018, and Matt Canterino in 2019. Many of these arms have put up dominant seasons in the minors and may not be incredibly far off from the Major Leagues despite a lost 2020.

 

In addition to the picks Falvey has made over the years, the organizational overhaul has likely benefited pitchers already in the organization. Jordan Balazovic seems to have developed into the ceiling that seemed so far away when he was drafted in 2016. Jhoan Duran was particularly targeted by Falvey via trade and has put up some of the best numbers of his career since joining the Twins. Look at what the Twins have done to develop Randy Dobnak who went from an Independent Ball pitcher to a meaningful piece of the Twins rotation in a matter of years.

 

The moral of the story is “Rome wasn’t built in a day” as they say, and neither was Cleveland’s rotation. One of the engineers of it however is at the head of the Minnesota Twins organization. What he’s done in Minnesota thus far has been fantastic in general, but especially so when it comes to pitching. The impacts made at the Major League level are just the tip of the iceberg. Much of this organization’s success when it comes to pitching still likely remains in the Minor Leagues, slowly rising to the top of the professional ladder.

 

The timeline of Falvey’s tenure in Minnesota hasn’t been enough to judge the Twins' development of a pitching rotation yet. It’s truly one of the most difficult processes to succeed in and takes a good bit of time. Cleveland’s highly touted 2016 class took 4 years to come to fruition. That being said, The Twins have one of the most exciting groups of upcoming starting pitchers in years, and much of it is a testament to the work of Derek Falvey. If you’re ready to make a judgement on the Twins starting pitching development already, you may be kicking yourself in a year or two.

 

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[tony&rodney]

If this glowing report is to be true - let it happen already then.

Dobnak, Duran, and Balazovic to the rotation backed up by Thorpe and Smeltzer. Berrios, Maeda, and Pineda can lead the way.

The savings can then be spent on adding Liam Hendriks and bringing Tyler Clippard back for help in the bullpen.

Naturally, we will want Realmuto to help these young guns out and he fits in our new budget too.

Just a few moves and the Twins are set and near the $120 million roster so many seem to prefer as well.

[bobs]

Good lord I hope Cody is right....

[theBOMisthebomb]

Might there be some new year optimism sprinkled in here? I don't care, I hope this is accurate and the Twins soon have a solid 1-5 rotation for maybe the first time in my life (and I'm nearly 50).

[Richard Swerdlick]

Great article.

[mikelink45]

The nice thing about baseball in the winter is that we can dream anything we want.  Keep dreaming - I enjoyed the article.

[arby58]

 

If this glowing report is to be true - let it happen already then.

Dobnak, Duran, and Balazovic to the rotation backed up by Thorpe and Smeltzer. Berrios, Maeda, and Pineda can lead the way.

The savings can then be spent on adding Liam Hendriks and bringing Tyler Clippard back for help in the bullpen.

Naturally, we will want Realmuto to help these young guns out and he fits in our new budget too.

Just a few moves and the Twins are set and near the $120 million roster so many seem to prefer as well.

The theme of the piece is patience - this would not be patient. The Twins of old (and several other franchises) have messed up young pitchers via the baptism by fire. Let them gain their experience in the minors - pitching wasn't the Twins' problem last year, and my guess is there will be enough this year as well without leaps of faith with the young pitchers mentioned.

[arby58]

 

Might there be some new year optimism sprinkled in here? I don't care, I hope this is accurate and the Twins soon have a solid 1-5 rotation for maybe the first time in my life (and I'm nearly 50).

Granted, you weren't born yet, but the 1970 Twins had a strong rotation, top to bottom: Jim Perry (24-12, 3.04 ERA), Jim Kaat (14-10, 3.56), Bert Blyleven (10-9, 3.18), Louis Tiant (7-3, 3.40), Bill Zepp (9-4, 3.22).

 

Unfortunately, they ran into an Orioles team with even better pitching (and at least as good hitting) that won the World Series 4-1 over a very good Cincinnati team. That rotation was Palmer (20-10, 2.71), Cuellar (24-8, 3.48), McNally (24-9, 3.22), Hardin (6-5, 3.53) and Phoebus (5-5, 3.07). Imagine winning 20 games and having the third most wins in the rotation!

[theBOMisthebomb]

Granted, you weren't born yet, but the 1970 Twins had a strong rotation, top to bottom: Jim Perry (24-12, 3.04 ERA), Jim Kaat (14-10, 3.56), Bert Blyleven (10-9, 3.18), Louis Tiant (7-3, 3.40), Bill Zepp (9-4, 3.22).

 

Unfortunately, they ran into an Orioles team with even better pitching (and at least as good hitting) that won the World Series 4-1 over a very good Cincinnati team. That rotation was Palmer (20-10, 2.71), Cuellar (24-8, 3.48), McNally (24-9, 3.22), Hardin (6-5, 3.53) and Phoebus (5-5, 3.07). Imagine winning 20 games and having the third most wins in the rotation!

Nice example. Those are two great staffs. If the Twins could end up in the next few years with a starting rotation anywhere close to that Orioles club (or even those Twins), I think we'd finally see some playoff success again.

[Doctor Gast]

Article is indeed hopeful. New Year wish is MN can set up an ace factory like CLE, TB & LAD. It's still a few years away but hopefully is near although a little disappointed in this year draft.

Agree we need to establish well in the minors our starters so they can develop their pitches & not to rush them by putting them in MLB BP too soon.

Where MN has had great success is recycling pitchers into effective SP & BP at least temporarily         & not going after big names.

[twinfan]

I'm not sold on Thorpe and we'll have to see if Dobnick can bounce back. It would be nice to see a solid, 5 man rotation but today's games are won with a solid bullpen which we have seemingly lost since the end of the season. Let's shore that up and then build the youngsters. 

[dougd]

BPro (Dec 23) likes Canterino and Winder (7 and 11), claiming both have added velocity the past year, and Canterino has developed a good change-up.

[HrbieFan]

Cleveland SPs aren't 5 and fly either. Hopefully we are developing guys that will be allowed to go 7+ innings

[mikelink45]

 

Granted, you weren't born yet, but the 1970 Twins had a strong rotation, top to bottom: Jim Perry (24-12, 3.04 ERA), Jim Kaat (14-10, 3.56), Bert Blyleven (10-9, 3.18), Louis Tiant (7-3, 3.40), Bill Zepp (9-4, 3.22).

 

Unfortunately, they ran into an Orioles team with even better pitching (and at least as good hitting) that won the World Series 4-1 over a very good Cincinnati team. That rotation was Palmer (20-10, 2.71), Cuellar (24-8, 3.48), McNally (24-9, 3.22), Hardin (6-5, 3.53) and Phoebus (5-5, 3.07). Imagine winning 20 games and having the third most wins in the rotation!

I remember the 1965 rotation - Mudcat Grant 21 - 7, Jim Kaat 18 - 11, Jim Perry 12 - 7, Camilo Pascual (injured and missed part of the season) 9 - 3 with Al Worthington in the BP winning 10 games.  And young Dave Boswell 6 - 5 and Jim Merrit 5 -4 

[Rosterman]

As long as your pitchers give up 3-4 runs a game and you get 4-5. The catch is getting guys who can thru the 6th more often than not, as the bullpen is not going to be 8-10 arms again.

[tony&rodney]

A question that keeps coming back is why our pitching prospects need more time to develop than other team's pitchers? Cleveland, San Diego, and others allow their 22-24 year olds to step up. The Twins have a host of arms sitting at 23-25 as prospects. Wouldn't it be nice to see a couple get the ball this coming summer? Or do we trade?

[Cody Pirkl]

A question that keeps coming back is why our pitching prospects need more time to develop than other team's pitchers? Cleveland, San Diego, and others allow their 22-24 year olds to step up. The Twins have a host of arms sitting at 23-25 as prospects. Wouldn't it be nice to see a couple get the ball this coming summer? Or do we trade?

The thing I'd point out is that much of the Twins pitchers drafted are out of college so they're going to be older when they reach the majors. It takes a special pitcher to be in professional ball and debut so young, and its also not uncommon for pitchers to take 3-4 years to work their way up.

[tony&rodney]

 

The thing I'd point out is that much of the Twins pitchers drafted are out of college so they're going to be older when they reach the majors. It takes a special pitcher to be in professional ball and debut so young, and its also not uncommon for pitchers to take 3-4 years to work their way up.

 

Yes. Thank you. But i know that and I'm asking whether we need to give the Durans or others a shot or is it necessary to trade or sign a strong SP because we let our guys take more time?

Balazovic, Duran, Colina, and Chalmers signed in 2015/2016. Some teams will bring their top college arms to the main team after one or two years.

I'm not second guessing as much as suggesting that if the top pitching prospects are not deemed ready, the Twins need to sign or trade for a player. Dobnak or Thorpe are fine in the fifth slot. Someone needs to fill in higher. The core of the team is built to win now.

[mike8791]

Cody,  this plan of patience would better apply to a club in rebuilding mode, which this club is not in today.  You say this FO is adept at developing pitching, and yet the only Twins pitching prospect in MLB's top 100 is Balozovic at #81.  Going into their 5th full year, there is not one prospect clearly ready to step in, even in the #5 spot in 2021.

 

So patience is a good virtue in any activity except when you are a contender wanting to shed the mantle of playoff chokers.  While Lewis is a #7th ranked prospect, there were several excellent pitching prospects available that draft year, including MacKenzie Gore(#3) and Brendon McKay(#12).  This FO has eschewed tabbing college pitchers for position players(2 SS, 1OF, 11B/DH).  Is this the right strategy for a team that has failed repeatedly in developing top rotation starters?

 

Without signing top FA pitchers, we are reduced to picking up retreads and less-than- top starters.  Yes, kudos for pickups like Maeda, Odo and Pineda, but now this team cannot afford to wait 2-3 years for minor league development.  They must shed their innate caution and go after the top available starters via trade, if they are serious about going deep into the playoffs.

[Linus]

I like the front office and really like Wes Johnson who has done some good work with existing pitchers.

 

However there is zero evidence that Falvine are some sort of pitching whisperers. This theme reminds me of stuff coming out of Washington DC. If it gets repeated often enough it becomes fact.

 

There best pitching work has been to grab existing veterans such as Pineda etc.

[chpettit19]

 

Cody,  this plan of patience would better apply to a club in rebuilding mode, which this club is not in today.  You say this FO is adept at developing pitching, and yet the only Twins pitching prospect in MLB's top 100 is Balozovic at #81.  Going into their 5th full year, there is not one prospect clearly ready to step in, even in the #5 spot in 2021.

 

So patience is a good virtue in any activity except when you are a contender wanting to shed the mantle of playoff chokers.  While Lewis is a #7th ranked prospect, there were several excellent pitching prospects available that draft year, including MacKenzie Gore(#3) and Brendon McKay(#12).  This FO has eschewed tabbing college pitchers for position players(2 SS, 1OF, 11B/DH).  Is this the right strategy for a team that has failed repeatedly in developing top rotation starters?

 

Without signing top FA pitchers, we are reduced to picking up retreads and less-than- top starters.  Yes, kudos for pickups like Maeda, Odo and Pineda, but now this team cannot afford to wait 2-3 years for minor league development.  They must shed their innate caution and go after the top available starters via trade, if they are serious about going deep into the playoffs.

This FO hasn't repeatedly failed in developing top rotation starters. The previous regime did and they got fired for it. This regime took that awful staff and turned it into a pitching staff with the second best ERA in baseball last year. Now the prospects that they have targeted in trade and the draft, or developed in their system as holdovers from the previous regime, are starting to arrive. Alcala, Duran, Balazovic, and Colina all look like they'll be part of the pen or rotation this year or next. Enloy, Canterino, Sands are right behind them next year or the year after. 

 

Are any of them destined for greatness? Who knows. Are Gore or McKay? Who knows. McKay is older than all of those guys and hasn't established himself as some great major leaguer yet. Gore clearly hasn't established himself as ready to step into the Padres rotation either or they wouldn't be out there going after guys and he would've likely gotten a look when all their guys were getting hurt last year. So not sure those comps are really proving your point.

 

First round pitchers since Falvine took over (Bold are picks after Twins so they could've taken):

Hunter Greene

MacKenzie Gore

Brendan McKay

Kyle Wright

Shane Baz

Trevor Rogers

JB Bukauskas

Clarke Schmidt

Alex Faedo

David Peterson

DL Hall

Tanner Houck

Seth Romero

Brendon Little

Casey Mize

Ryan Weathers

Carter Stewart

Grayson Rodriguez

Logan Gilbert

Cole Winn

Matthew Liberatore

Brady Singer

Ryan Rolison

Mason Denaburg

JT Ginn

Nick Lodolo

Alek Manoah

Jackson Rutledge

Quinn Priester

Zack Thompson

George Kirby

Daniel Espino

Blake Walston

Ryan Jensen

Ethan Small

Max Meyer

Asa Lacy

Emerson Hancock

Reid Detmers

Garret Crochet

Mick Abel

Bryce Jarvis

Cade Cavalli

Nick Bitsko

Jared Shuster

Bobby Miller

 

Not exactly a ton of guys in there you can be terribly upset about them passing on for Lewis, Larnach, Cavaco, Sabato.

 

Meanwhile the great Cleveland pitching machine has turned out Aaron Civale 3rd round. Shane Bieber 4th round. Mike Clevinger 4th round. Zach Plesac 12th round.

 

Now that doesn't mean they shouldn't be looking to add multiple arms to the rotation and pen, but the idea that they haven't proven they can develop pitching and should be using high picks on them to solve that seems pretty far off. I read the point of this article as chasing Bauer for 5 years 150 mil type signings aren't necessary as we have a handful of people knocking on the door with Maeda and Berrios locked up for a little while still. Again, second best ERA in baseball last year. I'm an advanced stats guy, but if the goal is to give up the fewest runs possible second best in ERA is a pretty good place to be. They have work left to do this offseason on the pitching front, but the pitching hasn't let them down the last 2 postseasons, the offense has. I don't care about the previous teams run by previous coaches and FO. They have nothing to do with the current regime. The current regime has done a great job putting together pitching staffs and there is no real argument against it.

[tony&rodney]

Does anyone else wonder when fans will follow and support players again as opposed to the current knowledge of and positive attitude toward owners and management?

While I have no rancor whatsoever against those positions and understand their importance to a team (witness San Diego this week), I much prefer discussing and watching the players. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

This FO hasn't repeatedly failed in developing top rotation starters. The previous regime did and they got fired for it. This regime took that awful staff and turned it into a pitching staff with the second best ERA in baseball last year. Now the prospects that they have targeted in trade and the draft, or developed in their system as holdovers from the previous regime, are starting to arrive. Alcala, Duran, Balazovic, and Colina all look like they'll be part of the pen or rotation this year or next. Enloy, Canterino, Sands are right behind them next year or the year after. 

 

Are any of them destined for greatness? Who knows. Are Gore or McKay? Who knows. McKay is older than all of those guys and hasn't established himself as some great major leaguer yet. Gore clearly hasn't established himself as ready to step into the Padres rotation either or they wouldn't be out there going after guys and he would've likely gotten a look when all their guys were getting hurt last year. So not sure those comps are really proving your point.

 

First round pitchers since Falvine took over (Bold are picks after Twins so they could've taken):

Hunter Greene

MacKenzie Gore

Brendan McKay

Kyle Wright

Shane Baz

Trevor Rogers

JB Bukauskas

Clarke Schmidt

Alex Faedo

David Peterson

DL Hall

Tanner Houck

Seth Romero

Brendon Little

Casey Mize

Ryan Weathers

Carter Stewart

Grayson Rodriguez

Logan Gilbert

Cole Winn

Matthew Liberatore

Brady Singer

Ryan Rolison

Mason Denaburg

JT Ginn

Nick Lodolo

Alek Manoah

Jackson Rutledge

Quinn Priester

Zack Thompson

George Kirby

Daniel Espino

Blake Walston

Ryan Jensen

Ethan Small

Max Meyer

Asa Lacy

Emerson Hancock

Reid Detmers

Garret Crochet

Mick Abel

Bryce Jarvis

Cade Cavalli

Nick Bitsko

Jared Shuster

Bobby Miller

 

Not exactly a ton of guys in there you can be terribly upset about them passing on for Lewis, Larnach, Cavaco, Sabato.

 

Meanwhile the great Cleveland pitching machine has turned out Aaron Civale 3rd round. Shane Bieber 4th round. Mike Clevinger 4th round. Zach Plesac 12th round.

 

Now that doesn't mean they shouldn't be looking to add multiple arms to the rotation and pen, but the idea that they haven't proven they can develop pitching and should be using high picks on them to solve that seems pretty far off. I read the point of this article as chasing Bauer for 5 years 150 mil type signings aren't necessary as we have a handful of people knocking on the door with Maeda and Berrios locked up for a little while still. Again, second best ERA in baseball last year. I'm an advanced stats guy, but if the goal is to give up the fewest runs possible second best in ERA is a pretty good place to be. They have work left to do this offseason on the pitching front, but the pitching hasn't let them down the last 2 postseasons, the offense has. I don't care about the previous teams run by previous coaches and FO. They have nothing to do with the current regime. The current regime has done a great job putting together pitching staffs and there is no real argument against it.

 

Which Twins drafted pitcher in the last 5 years has turned into an above average starter? Because that's what develop means to me......not trading for guys. And yes, I'd rather have Gore than Lewis.

[chpettit19]

 

Which Twins drafted pitcher in the last 5 years has turned into an above average starter? Because that's what develop means to me......not trading for guys. And yes, I'd rather have Gore than Lewis.

Clevinger was drafted by the Dodgers before being traded to Cleveland so does Cleveland not get credit for developing him? Why does it matter if they drafted them in 1st round, drafted them in the 5th round, signed them from Cuba, traded for them, or signed them from the Saints? Taking them from the bottom of the minors to the majors is developing them. The job of the FO is to acquire players, build a staff of development talent to improve those players, and put the best team on the field for the amount of money their owner lets them spend. Claiming Wisler and turning him into a weapon, trading for Maeda and improving his numbers to a Cy Young level, trading for Odo, signing Pineda, bringing back Thielbar, the list goes on. This front office seems to have proven they can identify talent on the field and in the coaching department and mesh them together. That's their job.

So Gore for Lewis. That's it? They made 1 mistake on taking a bat over a pitcher? Lewis and Greene were the top 2 guys in that draft pretty unanimously. So, in hindsight, maybe Gore turns into the better major leaguer, but he wouldn't have been the #1 pick it would have been Greene. Would you rather have Greene than Lewis? And, again, Gore hasn't even reached the majors yet despite having been drafted during the Falvine era. So your number 1 example doesn't even fit your criteria. Is there 1 pitcher in the first round that the Twins could have drafted during the time Falvine was running drafts that has been developed into an above average starter? I don't see any.

 

The point of this article is that the Falvine guys are arriving. Now we get to see if they've got minor league pitching development figured out.

[Mike Sixel]

Clevinger was drafted by the Dodgers before being traded to Cleveland so does Cleveland not get credit for developing him? Why does it matter if they drafted them in 1st round, drafted them in the 5th round, signed them from Cuba, traded for them, or signed them from the Saints? Taking them from the bottom of the minors to the majors is developing them. The job of the FO is to acquire players, build a staff of development talent to improve those players, and put the best team on the field for the amount of money their owner lets them spend. Claiming Wisler and turning him into a weapon, trading for Maeda and improving his numbers to a Cy Young level, trading for Odo, signing Pineda, bringing back Thielbar, the list goes on. This front office seems to have proven they can identify talent on the field and in the coaching department and mesh them together. That's their job.

 

So Gore for Lewis. That's it? They made 1 mistake on taking a bat over a pitcher? Lewis and Greene were the top 2 guys in that draft pretty unanimously. So, in hindsight, maybe Gore turns into the better major leaguer, but he wouldn't have been the #1 pick it would have been Greene. Would you rather have Greene than Lewis? And, again, Gore hasn't even reached the majors yet despite having been drafted during the Falvine era. So your number 1 example doesn't even fit your criteria. Is there 1 pitcher in the first round that the Twins could have drafted during the time Falvine was running drafts that has been developed into an above average starter? I don't see any.

 

The point of this article is that the Falvine guys are arriving. Now we get to see if they've got minor league pitching development figured out.

Clevinger isn't a twin. What minor league pitcher the twins developed has turned into an above average starter? Drafted or traded for since this FO took over? Until that happens more than once, it is hard to say they are good at it.....

[Mike Sixel]

As for Gore, I merely pointed that out in response to your post.... nothing more or less

[chpettit19]

 

Clevinger isn't a twin. What minor league pitcher the twins developed has turned into an above average starter? Drafted or traded for since this FO took over? Until that happens more than once, it is hard to say they are good at it.....

The Clevinger point is that you're changing the rules of the debate to fit your narrative. You said developing is when you draft someone then they make it to the majors with you. Bringing up Celvinger was to question that premise.

 

We don't know yet if they've figured out minor league development, but now is when we find out. They're showing up and we're going to see. They clearly figured things out at the major league level by improving the performance of a number of outside players they've brought in to the tune of the second best ERA in baseball last year and brought in a guy that immediately turned into the Cy Young runner up. You can choose to see that as completely separate from minor league acquisition and development, but I'd argue that, combined with Falvey being very involved in the Cleveland program that continues to churn out front line starters, it provides a reason for hope that they know how to identify and develop pitching talent. We'll find out over the next few years.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The Clevinger point is that you're changing the rules of the debate to fit your narrative. You said developing is when you draft someone then they make it to the majors with you. Bringing up Celvinger was to question that premise.

 

We don't know yet if they've figured out minor league development, but now is when we find out. They're showing up and we're going to see. They clearly figured things out at the major league level by improving the performance of a number of outside players they've brought in to the tune of the second best ERA in baseball last year and brought in a guy that immediately turned into the Cy Young runner up. You can choose to see that as completely separate from minor league acquisition and development, but I'd argue that, combined with Falvey being very involved in the Cleveland program that continues to churn out front line starters, it provides a reason for hope that they know how to identify and develop pitching talent. We'll find out over the next few years.

 

My point is simple.....until they do it, we don't know if they can. Nothing more or less than that....but people keep saying he (they are) is good at it, and we just don't know that yet.

 

when I made this point last year, I was told to just wait for 2020 (now, that's a bad year to judge)......so, when? Five years is enough time to have drafted or traded for a minor league pitcher they make into a good starting pitcher. 

[tony&rodney]

Alright everyone, let us all agree - if the Twins go to the World Series in 2021 the wunderkind boys are lauded and receive an attaboy each . But if they fail to trade or sign those players the Twins need and develop their young kinder, we all boo and refuse to defend them any longer.

Ok?

[specialiststeve]

Long and short of this is that we need to keep on working on developing pitching in our minor league system.. 1st round through 20th but developing "our own" is the long term answer to being a contender every year... look at the Dodgers and Rays... 

 

We have several top of rotation guys right around the corner and others coming up with great promise... Don't panic... Stay the course.