5 Trade Targets: Who Can the Twins Raid from the Reds?

[Cody Christie]

The Cincinnati Reds have made it quite clear that they are open for business this winter as the team is trying to cut payroll. Already, the club has dealt away closer Raisel Iglesias in a trade that seemed to favor the Angels and not the Reds. Are there other available players the Twins can target to bolster their roster for 2021?Sonny Gray

Contract: 2-years, $20.33 million ($12 million team option for 2023)

Gray has revamped himself since joining the Reds rotation. Over the last two seasons, he has a 3.07 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP and 277 strikeouts in 231 1/3 innings. He might be the best starting pitcher available on the trade market this winter and the asking price will likely be high based on his recent performance and his years of team control. Gray would help bolster the top of Minnesota’s rotation that already includes the trio of Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, and Michael Pineda. Gray would help the team in the short-term, but the asking price might be higher than the front office wants to pay.

 

Luis Castillo

Contract: First-year arbitration eligible (Earliest Free Agency 2024)

While Gray can help the Reds to cut cost, Castillo is still relatively cheap since he is entering his first year of arbitration. A team looking to acquire Castillo might also have to be willing to take on a veteran with a higher salary to help the Reds cut costs (see below). Since the start of the 2019 season, the 28-year-old has posted a 3.35 ERA and a 3.42 FIP in 260 2/3 innings. He has an electric fastball that sits in the upper-90s and his slider is improving. It seems like someone Wes Johnson would love to help take to the next level.

Nick Castellanos

Contract: 3-years, $46 million ($20 million mutual option for 2024)

Twins fans are likely familiar with Castellanos from his time in a Tigers uniform and his contract might be one that a team will have to acquire to have a chance at Castillo. Castellanos can fit multiple roles with the Twins including corner outfielder or designated hitter. Over the last two seasons, he has hit .273/.327/.515 with 41 home runs and 69 doubles in 211 games. Making a deal that includes Castellanos likely puts the Twins out of the running for Nelson Cruz, but it can mean the club acquires a big-time arm like Castillo.

 

Amir Garrett

Contract: First-year arbitration eligible (Earliest Free Agency 2024)

Garrett is one of the players that will have a chance to take over the closer’s role in Cincinnati following the departure of Iglesias. Like Castillo, he is in his first year of arbitration so there won’t be urgency to trade him unless a perspective team is willing to take on other salary. Since the start of 2019, he has a 3.03 ERA and a 4.19 FIP while racking up 104 strikeouts in 74 1/3 innings. Minnesota has multiple holes to fill in their bullpen, so would the team be willing to overspend to get a very good left-handed arm.

 

Lucas Sims

Contract: Pre-arbitration eligible (Earliest Free Agency 2025)

Sims was a first-round pick in 2012 out of high school and he joined the Reds organization back in 2018 in a deadline deal with the Braves. He hasn’t even reached arbitration yet and so the cost to acquire him will be steep. Over the last two seasons, he strikes out nearly 12 batters per nine innings with a 1.08 WHIP and a 125 ERA+. Cincinnati can put him in the closer’s role for a couple seasons and get a higher return for him after he has the “proven closer” label applied to him.

 

Which players would you like the Twins to target? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[High heat]

if you could pull a Castellanos and Castillo trade built around a Larnach.  Get a good power Rh bat who can play a little outfield but likely settle in as primary DH  and a potential ace with team control

[Seansy]

I would love to use Castellanos' contract as a contract dump with a pitcher like Gray or Castillo! Unfortunately that means no Cruz but given his age compared to Castellanos (2021 is his age 29 season) I think that is a worthwhile move given the reduction in cost to acquire a front line starter.

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

I don't know how accurate this trade simulator is but it shows the cost for those two would be either 1 of Garver, Duran, Dobnak, or Balazovic or some combination of lesser prospects. I would happily trade any of those 4 to get Castellanos and Gray. If I had to pick 1 it would probably be Garver so Jeffers starts full time and we use a veteran back up like Castro. Now, it also says we could get those two for Smeltzer, Astudillo, and Maciel and that's just silly so take it with a grain of salt but I really think Castellanos' contract isn't terrible for what he is but since the Reds are trying to cut costs... This might be a sneaky pick up. Who knows, maybe the Pohlads REALLY want to go all in and approve bringing back Cruz for 1 year AND Castellanos plays LF for 1 year. Always fun to dream right

[h2oface]

Yup. Luke Sims. We have him to thank for hitting Buxton in the head with a 92 mph fastball, giving him a concussion, and taking him out of the lineup on September 25th. Just what we needed. Thanks. But no thanks.

 

I would pass on all of them. 

 

[Doctor Gast]

Castillo w/o a doubt! His potential is phenomenal.  It'll take a huge trade but it`ll be worth it. We don't need Castellanos & don't know if we have    any more trading pieces after trading for Castillo, maybe throw in Wade Miley      

[071063]

If the Twins can engineer a trade with the Reds for Castillo and Castellanos (salary) without giving up Lewis, Kirilloff, or Balazovic, I am all in.

 

Castellanoss can be the DH for the term of his contract replacing Cruz.  That is probably a slight downgrade in production but absolutely a downgrade in the clubhouse.

 

Castillo can be an ace!  Castillo, Meada and Berrios give the Twins three top end starters and it provides protection against Berrios leaving as a free agent.

 

Make it happy and I would be a very happy camper!

 

[goulik]

I would happily give up Balazovic for Castillo as the center pieces with Castellanos contract reducing the additional pieces. If we still need prospect filler, Larnach, Gordon, Dobnak, Rortvedt, Astudillo, (I could go on) Load them up with second to third tier prospects that we just don't have room for. If we really are looking elsewhere for a potential shortstop, we can also be looking at adding Polanco or Arraez to this mix and possibly gaining one or two of their relievers while were at it. We have the resources to make a blockbuster trade.

[Shaitan]

If you're looking for a "raid" or a lopsided trade, it wouldn't be any of these players. It would be a salary dump -- Gray might be the closest. The rest have too much control and come at a cost.

 

And I like Gray. I have a weird thing where I like to see players who bombed for NYY do well elsewhere. If we can't beat them in the payoffs we can at least get value out of Carl Pavano

 

But I suspect you're just alliterating the title and that wasn't your intent. 

 

The more good players the Twins can get, the better. I'll leave it at that. They should always be doing due diligence on who may be available.

 

SP and RP are the obvious targets, but I don't see why CIN would trade players a controllable RP, as those players are affordable during arbitration. It would likely cost quite a bit more (see Pressley trade).

[drivlikejehu]

The Reds don't actually have much in the way of bad contracts, aside from Votto. I don't see them trading anyone on the OP's list aside from *maybe* Gray, and he would be very costly in terms of prospects (more than the Twins would be willing to pay).

[saviking]

There are definitely players there worth trading for if we can work a fair deal. 

[Brandon]

I don't see Castellanos as a fit. Might as well kept Rosario. So if we have to get him to get Castillo then I just up my offer to Odorrizzi. I would trade for Sonny or Castillo and would include Larnarch, or Colina, Balazovich, Rooker. There are a large number but I am sure a package can be worked out. How much better is Gray then Odorrizzi. That difference in talent and 3 million a year for what talent?

[TopGunn#22]

I disagree Brandon,

 

I've been banging the drum for the Twins to bring Cruz back all off-season.  

BUT...

If the Twins could swing a trade for Castillo and Castellanos that makes it not VITAL they bring Cruz back.  

Castillo in our rotation with Maeda, Berrios and Pineda would be tremendous.

Castellanos is a SOLID bat.

Not as powerful as Sano, but much more consistent.  He could play LF but also possibly see some time at 1B (he IS a former 3B-man) as well as DH.

This certainly would free the Twins to unload Sano.  Between Kiriloff, Castellanos, Rooker and Garver 1B is covered.

To fill out the pitching staff how about Sano for German Marquez.

Castillo and Castellanos for Dobnak, Sabato, Rortvedt and Gordon.

If that's not enough, I'd be willing to go higher.    

 

 

[TopGunn#22]

C   GARVER    

1B  KIRILOFF

2B  ARRAEZ

3B  DONALDSON

SS  POLANCO

LF   K. MARTE

CF   BUXTON

RF   KEPLER

DH   CASTELLANOS

 

SP   MAEDA, CASTILLO, BERRIOS, MARQUEZ, PENEDA

BP   B. HAND, T. ROGERS, DUFFEY, ALCALA, THEILBAR, THORPE, D. LAW, COLINA

 

BENCH   ROOKER, CAVE, JEFFERS, SUPER-UTILITY GUY (VILLAR??)

 

If I could swing a trade for Ketel Marte I'd start him in LF and he's basically my insurance for Buxton, Arraez, Polanco etc...

 

Dobnak and Rortvedt (maybe Gordon too) for Ketel Marte.  

[Doctor Gast]

 

Castillo w/o a doubt! His potential is phenomenal.  It'll take a huge trade but it`ll be worth it. We don't need Castellanos & don't know if we have    any more trading pieces after trading for Castillo, maybe throw in Wade Miley      

Wade Miley might not be enough to coax away Castillo but maybe Sonny Gray. Larnach/ Gordon should be a fair trade for Gray. If Cruz doesn't materialize I'd reluctantly consider Castellano in hope to obtain Castillo as another option

[DocBauer]

Not saying i am sold on a trade with the Reds as speculated here...for the record I prefer the FA route at this time and hold on to prospects until we get another half season to full season of further development and evaluation...but there is real merit to a move here.

 

Nothing wrong with a move for Gray from a team looking to shed payroll and pick up a couple of prospects. And the cost shouldn't be all that high. But I do see the idea of a younger Castillo, with additional potential and better $ control along with Castellanos, as maybe being the better option. Now, said trade is going to cost a pair of top 15-20 prospects and at least a throw-in, whether that be a lower prospect or someone like Cave, who could be a nice temporary option for the Reds.

 

Castellanos is NOT Cruz. But honestly, we aren't 100%  sure which version of Cruz we might get in 2021. And if looks like we can't come to terms, Castellanos is an OF/DH with a decent bat and good power as a "replacement" for about the same $ cost per year. In fact, IF the Reds truly are in "savings" mode, taking on Castellanos might lower the package from someone like Duran or Balazovic being included to someone like Enlow or Cantarino instead. (Not that they are poor prospects).

 

Not my preferred way to go, but I see match and merit here potentially.

[TopGunn#22]

Doc, even making a deal like that wouldn't necessarily preclude bringing back Cruz for one-year and an option depending on how much the Twins are willing to carry for a payroll this year.

That's what intrigues me so much about a Castillo & Castellanos trade.

A starting rotation of Maeda, Castillo, Berrios and Pineda would be awfully GOOD.

Castellanos gives Rocco a certain amount of position flexibility (LF, RF, 1B, DH).

He's not very exceptional at any of them but he's a consistent bat with Doubles/Homers power.

And he won't "K" 200 times like Sano.  

And if you trade Sano and his $11 million it frees up some cash to get either a Hendricks to anchor the BP or a couple of arms to lengthen it out.

And what if you added Marquez or Gray from Colorado to the starting staff?

It's a very interesting scenario that actually has some smoke to it.  

[TopGunn#22]

Here's my make believe trade scenario and how the Twins roster would shake out:

 

Trade:  Thorpe/Dobnak, Enlow, Rortvedt & Gordon  for Castillo & Castellanos

Trade:   Sano for German Marquez

 

Roster:

C    GARVER   2.00 

C    JEFFERS   .600

1B   KIRILOFF   .600

2B   ARRAEZ   .600

3B   DONALDSON   21.00

SS  POLANCO    4.33

OF  KEPLER     6/50

OF   BUXTON   5.10

OF   CASTELLANOS   13.00

DH   CRUZ    14.00

UT    VILLAR    6.00

OF   ROOKER   .600

OF   CAVE   .600

 

SP    MAEDA   8.15

SP    CASTILLO   4.00

SP    BERRIOS    6.10

SP    MARQUEZ   4.00

SP    PINEDA     10.00

RP    B. HAND    7.00

RP    T. ROGERS  6.00

RP     DUFFERY   2.20

RP     ALCALA      .600

RP    CLIPPARD   3.00

RP    SMELTZER   .600

RP    THEILBAR    .650

RP    LAW/COLINA   .600

 

TOTAL PAYROLL   $122.43 MILLION.

 

KEYS:  Stack a pitching staff that might be the best the Twins have ever had.

Move Sano's $11.00 million to strengthen other areas and make the lineup better.

Add a consistent bat in Castellanos while still bringing back Cruz for one-year plus an option.

Build a DEEP bullpen with a proven closer in Hand at the end but with guys like Rogers and Clippard who could close if needed.  I think Duffey could also close if needed and I think Alcala will be pretty GOOD.  Colina's stuff intrigues me.  What is his ceiling?

Add a UT guy in Villar who can play SS in a pinch and who has SPEED.  

I have not traded Lewis, Larnach, Rooker, Balazovic or Dhuran in this scenario.

I would be willing to move guys like Celestino and Sabato if I had too.

I'm still tremendously interested in acquiring Ketel Marte but would look to deal for him at the deadline or before.  

Cruz is a Wildcard.   I could bring him back like in the above scenario or put Kiriloff/Castellanos/Larnach/Rooker at LF/1B/DH and go without him, possibly using the $14 million saved on other areas.  

I'm guessing on the salaries for Castellanos, Castillo and Marquez but I wanted to go high just in case.

 

[ashbury]

Trade:   Sano for German Marquez

Neither of the trade evaluation tools I refer to (baseballtradevalues.com website, or Out Of The Park video game) views this as remotely close to acceptable to the Rockies. Hard to imagine the Rockies' analytics team seeing differently. One can dream of acquiring a top shelf arm, but this straight-up offer looks like wishful thinking only.

 

[TopGunn#22]

Ash, help me out here then.  I'm going off what was speculated by Rosenthal.  What would it take to make a trade for Castillo & Castellanos with the Reds ?  And would Sano for Marquez work ?  Or what would it take to pry Marquez away from the Rockies ?

 

I'm looking for some guidance because I don't have those tools, but I'd like to be "realistic" in what I'm suggesting.  

[ashbury]

Ash, help me out here then.  I'm going off what was speculated by Rosenthal.  What would it take to make a trade for Castillo & Castellanos with the Reds ?  And would Sano for Marquez work ?  Or what would it take to pry Marquez away from the Rockies ?

 

I'm looking for some guidance because I don't have those tools, but I'd like to be "realistic" in what I'm suggesting.  

Neither of these resources should be mistaken for an accurate picture of what real GMs may be thinking; that's not available to the public at any price. But both try to connect the remaining contract value to reasonable forecasts of future production, to imitate a GM's thinking regarding trade value.

 

baseballtradevalues.com is a public website so you can "have" the tool to the extent you want it. OOTP is on sale at the moment for $5, because the version for next season will be available soon; its statistics don't reflect 2020 results so its trade evaulations are basically a year out of date at the moment (and thus are a bit more favorable toward Sano), while the Trade Values site is presumably up to date.

 

I didn't find a speculation by Rosenthal (Ken?) regarding Sano and Marquez. Perhaps it's behind The Athletic's paywall.

 

Basically, Sano's trade value looks damaged due to 1) an inability to play a full 162-game season (this year's abbreviated season was his best health-wise), and 2) a very sub-par 2020 season statistically for the money. He's locked into a contract for 2 more years at approx $10M a year, plus an option for $14M a season after that - that's a pretty fully-priced market value for a guy playing 1B and with an OPS of only .757 this year (he finished very weakly). Another team can obtain that kind of production on the free agent market for about that price, so why would a team give you anything of significant value in return for Sano? You could try to sell the other team on Sano's ceiling, I suppose - but he turned 27 this season so he's by no means a "prospect" anymore. At that salary, the Trade Values site considers Sano a negative asset at the moment. This stings. But even if some real-world GM considers his value to be positive, it can't be high. Marquez's estimated value is - sky high indeed.

 

I apologize if by trying to be brief (never my strong suit) I came across as brusque and dismissive. But I don't see how Sano moves the needle whatsoever in trying to acquire a difference-maker for the rotation. Those arms are in high demand, and I suspect that trade discussions for Marquez would start with probably two of our top few prospects. If Colorado happens to like him, Sano might be a Duensing-like "sweetener".

 

[TopGunn#22]

No offense taken Ash, this is very helpful.  I'll look into the baseballtradevalues.com  site but I can't disagree with your assessment of Sano.  It's why I've been so strong in pushing for a trade.  I think our lineup would miss the occasional 3-run bomb, but not the strikeouts and not the 3-pitch, rally killer strikeouts.  I see a team like Colorado having interest because they have no "real" 1B guy on their roster right now and Sano's power potential in Colorado could be intriguing to them.  

The Rosenthal stuff came up in the Athletic (which I don't get either) and was mentioned earlier in the Reds thread about being willing to look at dealing Castillo and Gray.  

MERRY CHRISTMAS !!

[TopGunn#22]

O.K. Ash, I downloaded baseballtradevalues.com and here's what I came up with.

Boy, you weren't kidding about that Castillo/Castellanos trade.  Castillo would require A LOT.  By the way, I must correct:  It was NOT Rosenthal who mentioned the Reds possibly moving Castillo or Gray, possibly with Castellanos as a salary to take back.  Maybe it was Skol North with Doogie, maybe I saw it somewhere else.

Suffice it to say that Castillo's value is enormus.

 

Reds Get:  Dobnak, Gordon, Smeltzer.

Twins Get:  Gray, Castellanos, Amir Garrett and Lorenzen.

You could do the deal just Dobnak and Gorden for Gray, Castellanos and Garrett if you want.

 

Negative:  Twins take on Castellanos contract and probably say goodbye to Cruz.

 

Positive:  Add a solid rotation piece in Gray who we would have for a couple of years and add a solid bat like Castellanos.  Deepen the BP with a LH (Garrett) and a RH Lorenzen who help the Twins not have to depend so much on young, relatively unproven arms. 

 

Not sure how much salary we take back.  We send out only $1.8 million or so, which is why the Reds do this. 

 

We could get German Marquez for Sano.  But only if we included Kiriloff and Lewis.

Not happening.  Reality check complete for me.