Using History to Decipher Who the Twins Will Sign This Offseason

[Matthew Taylor]

Since joining the Minnesota Twins after the 2016 season, Derek Falvey and the Twins front office have signed 22 MLB free agents. What can those 22 prior free agency signings tell us about who the Minnesota Twins might sign this offseason?While it’s fun to speculate on which free agents we think the Minnesota Twins should sign this offseason, it might be more worthwhile to use recent history as an indicator of who the Minnesota Twins are most likely to sign. To do this, we will take a look back at the prior four offseasons for the Twins under the Derek Falvey regime and the archetypes of players that Falvey & company have signed. Then using that history, we can see which types of players in this free agency class match that archetype and could be a realistic free agent for the Twins this offseason.

 

Archetype #1: Veteran Relievers on 1 Year Deals

 

Prior examples:

• Zach Duke, 1 year/$2.15M (2018)
• Fernando Rodney, 1 year/$4.5M (2018)
• Tyler Clippard, 1 year/$3M (2020)
• Sergio Romo, 1 year/$5M (2020)

2021 possibilities:

• Joakim Soria
• Sean Doolittle
• Darren O’Day
• Tyler Clippard

Like most teams, the position that the Minnesota Twins have attacked most frequently in free agency over the past four seasons has been relief pitcher. Upon looking at those reliever free agency signings, there is one singular theme that binds them together — they are largely veteran on one-year deals. Over the past four years the Twins have signed 8 relief pitchers. Seven of those eight relief pitchers have been signed on one-year deals (only Addison Reed’s two-year deal being the outlier), and the average age of those seven relief pitchers has been 37 years old.

 

So, while it’s fun to speculate on the Twins going out and signing a top-tier free agent reliever like Liam Hendriks or Brad Hand, chances are the Minnesota Twins are going to stick with what has worked for them, and sign another aging veteran on a one-year contract. Players like Joakim Soria (36), Sean Doolittle (34), Darren O’Day (38) or Tyler Clippard (35) definitely fit the archetype for a Falvey-like free agent more than Liam Hendriks and are the names we should expect to see the Minnesota Twins go after this offseason.

 

Archetype #2: Starting Pitchers Recovering from Injury

 

Prior examples:

• Rich Hill, 1 year/$3M (2020)
• Michael Pineda, 2 years/$10M (2018)

2021 possibilities:

• Cole Hamels
• Corey Kluber

Another archetype that we have seen the Falvey-era Minnesota Twins sign in free agency has been starting pitchers recovering from injury. This is a category of player that typically comes with a built-in discount due to the inherent risk of pitching injuries, and the Twins haven’t shied away from capitalizing on that discount. The previous names that we have seen the Twins sign under this archetype have been Rich Hill, who was originally scheduled to miss half of the following season due to elbow surgery, and Michael Pineda who was signed with the understanding that he would miss the entirety of the first season of his contract due to elbow surgery. Teams like the Minnesota Twins might not be able to compete for the Gerrit Coles of the world, but if they hit on a discounted pitcher due to injury, they could acquire a top-flight pitcher for a fraction of the cost.

 

This offseason there are two starting pitchers that fit the bill for a starting pitcher recovering from injury, Cole Hamels and Corey Kluber. Hamels signed with the Atlanta Braves last offseason, only to pitch 3 1/3 innings and ultimately be shut down with shoulder fatigue. Kluber was another starting pitcher with a new team last season only to struggle with injury, pitching just one inning for the Rangers before being shut down with a shoulder tear. Both of these players would make a lot of sense on the Minnesota Twins on reclamation projects, and there has already been buzz of the Minnesota Twins showing interest in Kluber.

 

Archetype #3: Veteran, Frame-Savvy, “Clubhouse Guy” Catchers

 

Prior examples:

• Jason Castro, 3 year/$24.5M (2017)
• Alex Avila, 1 year/$4.25M (2020)

2021 possibilities:

• Alex Avila
• Jason Castro

With Alex Avila becoming a free agent, the Twins have a backup catcher spot to fill on their roster this offseason. Under the Falvey regime, the two catchers that the Twins have signed (Castro and Avila) have both been veteran, frame-savvy, “clubhouse guy” catchers. They have been field-first catchers who excel in making pitchers look better, while being high character guys in the clubhouse.

 

With a hole at backup catcher, the Twins could certainly go out and acquire another framing specialist behind the plate, with the two most likely names, ironically, being Alex Avila and Jason Castro. The most likely path for the Twins, though, will be to not sign either of those names as they have their own frame-savvy catcher within their organization in Ryan Jeffers. Jeffers might not be a 10-year veteran in the Majors like Castro and Avila, but he showed last season that he is an adept pitch framer, and by all accounts has what it takes to be the backup catcher, if not ultimately the starting catcher for the Minnesota Twins in 2021 and beyond.

 

Archetype #4: Top-Tier, Superstar Free Agent

 

Prior examples:

• Nelson Cruz, 1 year/$14M + $12M second year option (2019)
• Josh Donaldson, 4 years/$92M (2020)

2021 possibilities:

• Trevor Bauer
• Masahiro Tanaka
• Marcell Ozuna
• Nelson Cruz

The final archetype of free agent that the Falvey-era Twins have shown that they are capable of signing is the top-tier, superstar free agent. While the Twins have looked to find discounts on the reliever market or by signing starting pitchers coming off of injury, they have also shown that they are capable of ponying up and signing a star when the opportunity presents itself. They somewhat showed that in 2019, when the Twins signed Nelson Cruz to a nice contract, but they really proved it last offseason, when they signed Josh Donaldson to a franchise record $92M deal. Twins fans might still cry “Pohlad Pocket Protector”, but this front office has shown that when the right player is out there, and the need presents itself, they will spend big-time money to bring in talent.

 

Because they have shown in the past that they are willing to spend, no free agent should be thought of as completely off the table for this Twins front office. The big time players this year are Trevor Bauer, Masahiro Tanaka, Marcell Ozuna and Nelson Cruz. Look for the Twins to explore deals with all of these free agents, and potentially ink a deal.

 

Which archetype of free agent do you think the Twins are most likely to sign this offseason? Is there another theme of free agent that was missed? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

 

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[tony&rodney]

The post makes sense: a reliever (Tyler Clippard) for $3 million, a starting pitcher or two (Kluber and Walker or Hill) for $8 and $4 million, and a unknown big contract for $15-$30 million. Nelson Cruz was such a dynamic force the past two seasons that it seems tough to imagine the Twins moving forward without him on board next summer. Free agent signings seem more advantageous to the team, but trades are likely being tossed around every week and could be an important part of building the next roster.

History might lean toward Soria/Clippard, Kluber and Hill/Walker, plus Cruz, but we should not be surprised by a big trade and signing.

[IndianaTwin]

I like this way of thinking about it.

 

And for a combined $10M-$12M, I'd take that quartet of relievers over spending the same amount on Liam Hendricks. Add Mark Melancon, Brandon Kintzler to the mix of possibilities, plus my favorite, Jeremy Jeffress and his 139 career ERA+. 

 

James Paxton could be among your starters bouncing back from injuries group. 

 

Another archetype you might consider is the "Veteran Placeholder," preferably on a one-year deal, and potentially non-tendered. Think Cron, Schoop, Morrison, and Marwin.

 

I'm not sure there's great fits here, but the targets here may be Andrelton Simmons or Jonathan Villar.

 

 

[h2oface]

Hole at back up catcher? Watch for a Garver/Jeffers tandem to have the best catcher output in MLB in 2021.

 

[Doctor Gast]

I'd like Clippard & Soria in BP. Looks like Hernandez as super utility. For starters my vote is for Garret Richards. He has great stuff that Wes can work w/ & he looks healthy after finally getting TJ surgery. There's a lot of possibilities for a SS upgrade which the FO   could be a possibility. If they do Hernandez might balk because he wants at least 500 PAs. 

[TwinsFan268]

Hold up they don't need a backup catcher, right? They have Garver and Jeffers, who can platoon. I don't think they need to sign anyone else.

[ToddlerHarmon]

 

I like this way of thinking about it.

 

And for a combined $10M-$12M, I'd take that quartet of relievers over spending the same amount on Liam Hendricks. Add Mark Melancon, Brandon Kintzler to the mix of possibilities, plus my favorite, Jeremy Jeffress and his 139 career ERA+. 

 

James Paxton could be among your starters bouncing back from injuries group. 

 

Another archetype you might consider is the "Veteran Placeholder," preferably on a one-year deal, and potentially non-tendered. Think Cron, Schoop, Morrison, and Marwin.

 

I'm not sure there's great fits here, but the targets here may be Andrelton Simmons or Jonathan Villar.

 

Agreed re "Non-tendered placeholder", and I'm hoping it's Simmons.

 

I might also correct the (excellent) OP slightly with:

 

Archetype #2: Starting Pitchers Recovering from *Surgery*

 

Hill and Pineda had already had surgery for their issues, and were taking expected recovery time while being free agents. I'd worry about signing a pitcher who has missed time, but has had no intervention or other reason to expect a robust recovery

 

[rdehring]

Agree with those above that there isn't a hole at catcher. Jeffers/Garver will split time behind the plate with Astudillo and Telis around to fill in for an injury. Doubt Rortvedt will be ready to step up should a lengthy injury take one of the big two out for an extended period of time, but could he be ready by late season?

 

Loved this article, Matt. Great read of what this FO does and what we should expect over the winter. My only gripe is I want to see them get started with their first move.

[Shaitan]

I could see the case for giving Jeffers some time in MiLB, but I don't expect it. And I think Tellis is the backup plan in that case.

[Andrew Bryzgornia]

 

Hold up they don't need a backup catcher, right? They have Garver and Jeffers, who can platoon. I don't think they need to sign anyone else.

 

A platoon requires the two players to bat on opposite sides of the plate. Garver and Jeffers are both righthanded hitters, so them splitting time isn't a "platoon." That's why Avila was signed last year, because he was lefthanded in addition to being a good game-caller and framer. 

[jkcarew]

If no Cruz, then two right-handed catchers works IF at least one hits well enough to DH against lefties. I’m not there really with Jeffers (yet) or Garver (anymore)...doesn’t mean the Twins aren’t.

 

A lot of talk on this and other threads recently about corner outfielders and middle infielders. Don’t get it. If none of Lewis, Larnach, and Kirilloff in their age 22, 23, and 23 seasons are ready...they need to be traded, like yesterday. Even big-market contending teams turn their rosters to accommodate prospects...if they believe they’re good.

 

Having said that, I like the idea of Ozuna’s right-handed bat in left field. But he will be very expensive in terms of years. Still, in theory, it could justify packaging Kirilloff or Larnach in a deal for controllable pitching.

 

I expect relievers and a starter in FA. And a move to the next wave of prospects at corner OF/DH/Catcher/super-utility...and to some extent reliever...maybe even starter.

[ashbury]

A platoon requires the two players to bat on opposite sides of the plate. Garver and Jeffers are both righthanded hitters, so them splitting time isn't a "platoon." That's why Avila was signed last year, because he was lefthanded in addition to being a good game-caller and framer. 

That's often how it is done, but doesn't have to be.

 

1) What's important for platooning isn't the batter's handedness, but how he does against pitchers of one hand versus the other^*. Garver seems to have a normal platoon split in his time in the majors, doing a little better against lefty pitchers (but hardly futile against righties). But Jeffers showed an opposite-platoon split in his short time in the majors last year, and his 2019 and 2018 in the minors were likewise. For practical purposes, Jeffers's results looks like he hits as though he were a lefty.

 

2) Platooning at catcher isn't like at other positions. You might platoon in left field because you don't have a satisfactory guy to play there everyday, which would be one's normal preference - so you cobble together the equivalent, from two players with complementary abilities - but you would not platoon two stud hitters in LF just for the sake of lefty/righty splits, instead you'd find some solution that gets them both in the lineup, or trade one of them. But at catcher, it's a given that no one is enough of an ironman to start 162 games. The ideal for catcher is to have two guys who both hit so well that you're happy to have either one start on a given day, and can decide perhaps on a given opposing matchup on the mound that day if both are rested. It is possible we have that situation right now, if Garver bounces back, and Jeffers proves to be the real deal.

 

^{* _{A few pitchers likewise have reverse platoon splits, which complicates the record-keeping a bit. I imagine advanced analytics teams have this detail sorted out by now.}}

[stringer bell]

Also, catchers are given predictable days off—day game after night game, one game of a doubleheader—and often are paired with a particular starting pitcher. Sometimes managers are able to dovetail a platoon split with other priorities, but sometimes it doesn’t work out that way.

[DocBauer]

I think this is a very smart OP and full of value. I enjoyed the perspective very much. And I think you brought to light a very smart approach to how this off season will ultimately play out. The #1 issue is, of course, nobody has a bead yet exactly where payroll will end up. A 10% cut to roughly $125M or believing speculation the Twins may be kinda/sorta "all in" and keep payroll in the $135-138M payroll they began 2020 in with a team in a competitive window?

 

And we all know that budget and a potential Cruz signing might be the initial talking/sticking points. But without going crazy or trying to speculate actual $ numbers which are virtually impossible at this point, I think we can make a few educated guesses.

 

1] I see Clippard back and Soria brought on board for a combined $4-6M. Despite having some nice arms on hand, these 2, prospects, and a group of milb FA that might produce a surprise, I could see a Bradley or Yates for $5M also being added. That means 3 competent arms added for about $10M total. Quite the steal!

 

IF payroll allows, yes, you could drop another $2M for Hand, Henricks or Rosenthal. I just don't think that's the direction the FO is looking. But they also understand value.

 

2] The rotation needs a 4th option and there are many available even if you dismiss Bauer and even Tanaka. (Not sure I'd totally rule out Tanaka). Between Oddo, Richards, Walker, Wood, etc, there is a collection of very solid SP options who could combine with Pineda to give the Twins a VERY nice #3-4 combination for $8-13M depending on not only the market but 1yr vs 2-3yrs. And I just can't shake the idea of Kluber on some sort of deal as well. The depth of the FA market could easily see a 5th option brought in to camp on a cheap 1yr deal for a couple $M to an invite with incentives to compete with Dobnak and prospects. But I don't see a Bauer signing in any way.

 

POTENTIALLY, the Twins could add a quality 4th SP and maybe a cheap flier for $10-15M tops. How often can you do that?

 

3] The Twins need/want a 10th man. Hernandez would be nice, even though I prefer Profar. (Too much OF depth for the 10th man to HAVE to be a viable OF option). But no way do I pay more than $6M for anyone. There are just  too many options out there to overspend. 

 

The Twins sign a SS and move Polanco to the 10th man role? Great. You then have a list of at least a half dozen guys from Frazier, Gyorko, Miller and Cabrerra and others for a couple $M to be a quality 11th man. Or you can be super cheap and re-sign a solid Adrianza or similar but why pinch pennies at that point?

 

Want to keep Polanco at SS? Sign Hernandez, already rumored, and then spend another couple of $M for any of the names I just listed as your 11th man.

 

4] I think they are more than comfortable at catcher. But I also believe they are smart enough to jump on something like a $1M+ deal for a veteran option for depth just to cover themselves if they have a little extra sitting around.

 

SHORT?

 

The Twins will sign 2 viable, proven BP arms but not go crazy, and they don't have to in this market. A very good bet they will extend $ for 5-7M for what will prove to be a steal.

 

They will sign a SP for $8-10M from a collective group with a possibility of $12-13M. 

 

They will NOT sign any DH unless it be Cruz, but they will sign a veteran bat such as Brantley or Schwarber who can actually play in the field but for no more than 2yrs.

 

I am not opposed to trades, but I would rather keep what we have and be smart and take advantage of the current market within reason. And for the most part, I think that is the direction the FO will take. Potentially, it gives them ammunition for 2021 and beyond.

[Melissa]

Great approach, Matthew, thanks!